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New $1m reward for cold case murder of three children

A new $1 million reward is being offered for information about each of the murders of three First Nations children around 34 years ago. Four-year-old Evelyn Greenup, Clinton Speedy-Duroux, 16, and Colleen Walker-Craig, 16, disappeared from Bowraville, a town in northern NSW over a five-month period from September 1990. Evelyn and Clinton's remains were found in nearby bushland, but Colleen's have never been found. The murders were initially investigated separately before being linked by the homicide squad. Now, after various appeals over the decades, NSW Police have issued a re-appeal for information into the murders, with a particular focus on locating the remains of Colleen. “A $1 million reward for information that leads to the arrest and conviction of the person or persons responsible for each of the children’s murder remains in place, as well as for information leading to the location and recovery of Colleen’s remains,” NSW Police said on Monday. Detectives are also going to be spending the week in Bowraville to speak to locals who may have information about the children's deaths. A man, who can't be named for legal reasons, was acquitted of Clinton's murder in 1994, and Evelyn's murder in 2006. The case was the subject of two police investigations, multiple trials, a coronial inquest, and a parliamentary inquiry. In 2018, the government tried to convince the NSW court of criminal appeal that there was fresh and compelling evidence – related to the disappearance of Colleen – in attempt to overturn the two acquittals and instead have a new single trial on three murder charges. However, the court refused to grant special leave to the NSW government to appeal against the decision. In 2019, hundreds protested in front of the gates of the Court of Appeal when a retrial was denied. Images: 7pm TV News NSW/ ABC News

Legal

I have a stuffy nose, how can I tell if it’s hay fever, COVID or something else?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deryn-thompson-1449312">Deryn Thompson</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Hay fever (also called allergic rhinitis) affects <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/health-conditions-and-risks/national-health-survey-state-and-territory-findings/latest-release">24%</a> of Australians. <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergic-rhinitis-hay-fever-and-sinusitis/allergic-rhinitis-or-hay-fever">Symptoms</a> include sneezing, a runny nose (which may feel blocked or stuffy) and itchy eyes. People can also experience an itchy nose, throat or ears. But COVID is still <a href="https://theconversation.com/xec-is-now-in-australia-heres-what-we-know-about-this-hybrid-covid-variant-239292">spreading</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">other viruses</a> can cause cold-like symptoms. So how do you know which one you’ve got? <h2>Remind me, how does hay fever cause symptoms?</h2> <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/hp/papers/allergic-rhinitis-clinical-update">Hay fever</a> happens when a person has become “sensitised” to an allergen trigger. This means a person’s body is always primed to react to this trigger. Triggers can include allergens in the air (such as pollen from trees, grasses and flowers), mould spores, animals or house dust mites which mostly live in people’s mattresses and bedding, and feed on shed skin. When the body is exposed to the trigger, it produces IgE (immunoglobulin E) antibodies. These cause the release of many of the body’s own chemicals, including histamine, which result in hay fever symptoms. People who have asthma may find their asthma symptoms (cough, wheeze, tight chest or trouble breathing) worsen when exposed to airborne allergens. Spring and sometimes into summer can be the worst time for people with grass, tree or flower allergies. However, animal and house dust mite symptoms usually happen year-round. <h2>What else might be causing my symptoms?</h2> Hay fever does not cause a fever, sore throat, muscle aches and pains, weakness, loss of taste or smell, nor does it cause you to cough up mucus. These symptoms are likely to be caused by a virus, such as COVID, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) or a “cold” (often caused by rhinoviruses). These conditions can occur all year round, with some overlap of symptoms: <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/624085/original/file-20241007-16-xf6euv.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=731&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption><a class="source" href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">Natasha Yates/The Conversation</a></figcaption></figure> COVID still <a href="https://theconversation.com/xec-is-now-in-australia-heres-what-we-know-about-this-hybrid-covid-variant-239292">surrounds</a> us. <a href="https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/public+content/sa+health+internet/about+us/health+statistics/surveillance+of+notifiable+conditions/respiratory+infections+dashboard">RSV and influenza</a> rates appear higher than before the COVID pandemic, but it may be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10888990/#:%7E:text=Increases%20in%20RSV%20patient%20volume,with%20an%20RSV%20diagnosis%20occurred">due to more testing</a>. So if you have a fever, sore throat, muscle aches/pains, weakness, fatigue, or are coughing up mucus, stay home and avoid mixing with others to limit transmission. People with COVID symptoms can take a rapid antigen test (<a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-04/coronavirus-covid-19-rapid-antigen-tests.pdf">RAT</a>), ideally when <a href="https://www.cochrane.org/CD013705/INFECTN_how-accurate-are-rapid-antigen-tests-diagnosing-covid-19">symptoms start</a>, then isolate until symptoms disappear. <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2023/219/11/covid-19-rapid-antigen-tests-approved-self-testing-australia-published">One negative RAT alone</a> can’t rule out COVID if symptoms are still present, so test again 24–48 hours after your initial test if symptoms persist. You can now test yourself for COVID, RSV and influenza in a <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/covid-19-rapid-antigen-self-tests-are-approved-australia-ifu-406813.PDF">combined RAT</a>. But again, a negative test doesn’t rule out the virus. If your symptoms continue, <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/sites/default/files/2024-02/covid-19-rapid-antigen-self-tests-are-approved-australia-ifu-406813.PDF">test again</a> 24–48 hours after the previous test. <h2>If it’s hay fever, how do I treat it?</h2> Treatment involves blocking the body’s histamine release, by taking antihistamine medication which helps reduce the symptoms. Doctors, nurse practitioners and pharmacists can develop a <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/images/pc/ASCIA_Allergic_Rhinitis_Treatment_Plan_2024.pdf">hay fever care plan</a>. This may include using a nasal spray containing a topical corticosteroid to help reduce the swelling inside the nose, which causes stuffiness or blockage. Nasal sprays need to delivered <a href="https://allergyfacts.org.au/are-you-using-your-nasal-spray-correctly/">using correct technique</a> and used over several weeks to work properly. Often these sprays can also help lessen the itchy eyes of hay fever. Drying bed linen and pyjamas inside during spring can <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergy-treatments/allergen-minimisation">lessen symptoms</a>, as can putting a <a href="https://www.nps.org.au/consumers/managing-hay-fever">smear of Vaseline</a> in the nostrils when going outside. Pollen sticks to the Vaseline, and gently blowing your nose later removes it. People with asthma should also have an <a href="https://asthma.org.au/manage-asthma/asthma-action-plan/">asthma plan</a>, created by their doctor or nurse practitioner, explaining how to adjust their asthma reliever and preventer medications in hay fever seasons or on allergen exposure. People with asthma also need to be <a href="https://www.nationalasthma.org.au/living-with-asthma/resources/patients-carers/factsheets/thunderstorm-asthma">alert for thunderstorms</a>, where pollens can burst into tinier particles, be inhaled deeper in the lungs and cause a severe asthma attack, and even death. <h2>What if it’s COVID, RSV or the flu?</h2> Australians aged 70 and over and others with underlying health conditions who test positive for COVID are <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/covid-19/medications#at-home">eligible for antivirals</a> to reduce their chance of severe illness. Most other people with COVID, RSV and influenza will recover at home with rest, fluids and paracetamol to relieve symptoms. However some groups are at greater risk of serious illness and may require additional treatment or hospitalisation. For <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/respiratory-syncytial-virus.aspx">RSV</a>, this includes premature infants, babies 12 months and younger, children under two who have other medical conditions, adults over 75, people with heart and lung conditions, or health conditions that lessens the immune system response. For influenza, people at <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/Influenza/Pages/at-risk.aspx">higher risk</a> of severe illness are pregnant women, Aboriginal people, people under five or over 65 years, or people with long-term medical conditions, such as kidney, heart, lung or liver disease, diabetes and decreased immunity. If you’re concerned about severe symptoms of COVID, RSV or influenza, consult your doctor or call 000 in an emergency. If your symptoms are mild but persist, and you’re not sure what’s causing them, book an appointment with your doctor or nurse practitioner. Although hay fever season is here, we need to avoid spreading other serious infectious. For more information, you can call the healthdirect helpline on 1800 022 222 (known as NURSE-ON-CALL in Victoria); use the <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/symptom-checker">online Symptom Checker</a>; or visit <a href="http://healthdirect.gov.au/">healthdirect.gov.au</a> or the <a href="https://www.allergy.org.au/patients/allergy-treatments/allergen-minimisation">Australian Society of Clinical Immunology and Allergy</a>.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/240453/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deryn-thompson-1449312">Deryn Thompson</a>, Eczema and Allergy Nurse; Lecturer, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-a-stuffy-nose-how-can-i-tell-if-its-hay-fever-covid-or-something-else-240453">original article</a>. </div>

Body

‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Heavy winds struck south-east Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. It followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-weather-update-nsw-and-victoria-damaging-winds-high-fire-danger-warnings/0f9b19d8-dc81-44c9-8df4-679cbb67c055">high fire danger</a> in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales last week, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/fire-grass-emergency-warning-firefighter-horningsea-park/104281180">a fire in south-west Sydney</a> that threatened homes. The severe weather rounds out a weird winter across Australia. The nation’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/winter-heat-records-broken-as-australia-set-for-more-temperatures-over-10c-above-average">hottest ever winter temperature was recorded</a> when Yampi Sound in Western Australia reached 41.6C on Tuesday. Elsewhere across Australia, winter temperatures have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/nsw-weather-forecast-fire-danger-warnings-sydney-bom">way above average</a>. We can look to the positives: spring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/australias-early-spring-brings-budding-flowers-chirping-birds-and-climate-alarm">flowers are blooming early</a>, and people have donned t-shirts and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/spring-comes-early-after-warm-winter-with-more-heat-on-the-way-20240828-p5k63i.html">hit the beach</a>. But there’s a frightening undercurrent to this weather. Earth’s climate has become dangerously <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/">unstable</a>, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the bad combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should come as a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/003XSg5AZBk?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>The green is deceiving</h2> The landscape around Sydney – and in fact, across much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. That’s because we’ve had a couple of years of good rains which triggered an explosion of vegetation growth. The below NASA satellite image reveals the picture in stark detail. It’s certainly lush out there at the moment. But the problem with climate change is that weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">damaging winds</a> – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire. The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal. We must open our minds to this, if we want to be prepared. <h2>A climate off the rails</h2> The year 2023 was Earth’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record#:%7E:text=The%20year%202023%20was%20the,decade%20(2014%E2%80%932023).">hottest on record</a>. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">2024 looks likely</a> to be hotter still. In Australia, the last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails. In October 2023, Victoria’s Gippsland region suffered unseasonably early bushfires, then soon after battled <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/gippsland-fires-and-multiple-floods-breeding-resilience/103179368">heavy rain and flooding</a>. And Tasmania, where I live, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/tas-drought-conditions-as-dry-tasmania-looking-very-brown/103546058">has been gripped by drought</a>. This February was Hobart’s third driest in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hammered by a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/tas-flood-warnings-severe-weather-sunday/104296092">deluge of rain and wind</a>. This climate instability is setting up bad fire conditions. Not everywhere in south-east Australia will be hit by fire, but it will happen somewhere. It could be the hinterlands or the coast. It will depend on how our erratic climate behaves in the coming months. Let’s stick with the Tasmania example. Sure, the surface soils are now nicely saturated. But that will lead to a burst of grass and other vegetation in spring. If the dry weather returns and the temperatures heat up in summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible. All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and a nightmare fire will soon be racing across the landscape. <h2>Canada on fire</h2> Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climate instability and a worsening fire risk. Canada suffered a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the most severe on record. It burnt almost 15 million hectares and forced the evacuation of 232,000 people. Smoke produced by the fires affected communities up to 1,000 km away, such as in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02653-6">recent paper</a> in the journal Nature Communications outlined why. It pinpointed early snowmelt, early-season drought conditions and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2°C higher than the 30-year average. The researchers said human-caused climate change exacerbated the fire’s effects. It went on: <blockquote> The disproportionate effect a few days of extreme weather can have on the total area burned is also evident in this fire season, leading to worrisome prospects given projected future conditions. </blockquote> <h2>Normal no longer exists</h2> It’s always been difficult to forecast fire seasons in Australia, due to our natural climate variability. But now we are seeing climate instability <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/previous/state-of-the-climate-2018/australias-changing-climate">layering over itself</a>: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures. Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur. As we saw in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer of 2019–20</a>, and again in Canada last year, some fires are so intense they completely overwhelm fire suppression strategies. Under climate change, the likelihood of getting a bad combination of weather conditions is increasing. So what’s the remedy? Australia really must start making our communities more resilient. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">research has outlined</a>, this requires the careful integration of: <ul> <li>community education programs</li> <li>research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland</li> <li>incentives and penalties to ensure adaptation measures are implemented.</li> </ul> As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to give up on “normal” weather. The game is changing and we have to adapt.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year. The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week. A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days. It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">the hottest year on record</a>. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past. That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GmhMKjxEGQo?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Widespread heat forecast for Australia in August, 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>Records broken across Australia</h2> The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described: <blockquote> A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature. </blockquote> The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said. On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average. Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animated maximum temperature anomaly map showing heat building across central Australia" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperature anomalies from August 19-24, showing heat building across Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia. And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm. <h2>What’s causing the winter warmth?</h2> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">In recent days</a> a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south. High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2544/explainer-what-influences-air-temperature/">causes heating</a>. By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions. High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August. This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of August Australian-average temperatures increasing since 1910" /></a><figcaption>August temperatures have been rising over the past century. Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> <h2>Feeling the heat</h2> The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer. Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">last August was the second-warmest since 1910</a>. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago. The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655">a recent run of global temperature records</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-breaking-global-records-why-this-isnt-just-summer-and-what-climate-change-has-to-do-with-it-234249">extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere</a>. This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">above-normal temperatures</a> across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times. Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

I’ve recovered from a cold but I still have a hoarse voice. What should I do?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yeptain-leung-1563747">Yeptain Leung</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Cold, flu, COVID and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rsv-is-everywhere-right-now-what-parents-need-to-know-about-respiratory-syncytial-virus-208855">RSV</a> have been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-21/flu-whooping-cough-rsv-cases-up-as-covid-cases-unkown/104002964">circulating across Australia this winter</a>. Many of us have caught and recovered from <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-feel-sick-how-do-i-know-if-i-have-the-flu-covid-rsv-or-something-else-234266">one of these</a> common upper respiratory tract infections. But for some people their impact is ongoing. Even if your throat isn’t <a href="https://theconversation.com/sore-throats-suck-do-throat-lozenges-help-at-all-184454">sore</a> anymore, your voice may still be hoarse or croaky. So what happens to the voice when we get a virus? And what happens after? Here’s what you should know if your voice is still hoarse for days – or even weeks – after your other symptoms have resolved. <h2>Why does my voice get croaky during a cold?</h2> A healthy voice is normally clear and strong. It’s powered by the lungs, which push air past the vocal cords to make them vibrate. These vibrations are amplified in the throat and mouth, creating the voice we hear. The vocal cords are two elastic muscles situated in your throat, around the level of your laryngeal prominence, or Adam’s apple. (Although everyone has one, it tends to be more pronounced in males.) The vocal cords are small and delicate – around the size of your fingernail. Any small change in their structure will affect how the voice sounds. When the vocal cords become inflamed – known as laryngitis – your voice will sound different. Laryngitis is a common part of upper respiratory tract infections, but can also be caused through misuse. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614706/original/file-20240821-17-nzg1mc.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Two drawn circles comparing normal vocal cords with inflamed, red vocal cords." /><figcaption>Viruses such as the common cold can inflame the vocal cords. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/dry-sore-loss-cough-virus-viral-1821458117">Pepermpron/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> Catching a virus triggers the body’s defence mechanisms. White blood cells are recruited to kill the virus and heal the tissues in the vocal cords. They become inflamed, but also stiffer. It’s harder for them to vibrate, so the voice comes out hoarse and croaky. In some instances, you may find it hard to speak in a loud voice or have a reduced pitch range, meaning you can’t go as high or loud as normal. You may even “lose” your voice altogether. Coughing can also make things worse. It is the body’s way of trying to clear the airways of irritation, including your own mucus dripping onto your throat (<a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/treatments-for-post-nasal-drip">post-nasal drip</a>). But coughing slams the vocal cords together with force. Chronic coughing can lead to persistent inflammation and even thicken the vocal cords. This thickening is the body trying to protect itself, similar to developing a callus when a pair of new shoes rubs. Thickening on your vocal cords can lead to physical changes in the vocal cords – such as developing a growth or “nodule” – and further deterioration of your voice quality. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/614707/original/file-20240821-21-vizs73.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Diagram compares healthy vocal cords with cords that have nodules, two small bumps." /><figcaption>Coughing and exertion can cause inflamed vocal cords to thicken and develop nodules. <a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/dry-sore-loss-cough-virus-viral-1821458126">Pepermpron/Shutterstock</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How can you care for your voice during infection?</h2> People who use their voices a lot professionally – such as teachers, call centre workers and singers – are often desperate to resume their vocal activities. They are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7478078/">more at risk</a> of forcing their voice before it’s ready. The good news is most viral infections resolve themselves. Your voice is usually restored within five to ten days of recovering from a cold. Occasionally, your pharmacist or doctor may prescribe cough suppressants to limit additional damage to the vocal cords (among other reasons) or mucolytics, which break down mucus. But the most effective treatments for viral upper respiratory tract infections are hydration and rest. Drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol and exposure to cigarette smoke. <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/laryngitis#:%7E:text=You%20can%20help%20your%20voice%20recover%20by%3A%201,avoid%20nasal%20decongestants%20%28these%20make%20your%20throat%20drier%29">Inhaling steam</a> by making yourself a cup of hot water will also help clear blocked noses and hydrate your vocal cords. Rest your voice by talking as little as possible. If you do need to talk, don’t whisper – this <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0892199704001730">strains the muscles</a>. Instead, consider using “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0d-oNIMM1y/">confidential voice</a>”. This is a soft voice – not a whisper – that gently vibrates your vocal cords but puts less strain on your voice than normal speech. Think of the voice you use when communicating with someone close by. During the first five to ten days of your infection, it is important not to push through. Exerting the voice by talking a lot or loudly will only exacerbate the situation. Once you’ve recovered from your cold, you can speak as you would normally. <h2>What should you do if your voice is still hoarse after recovery?</h2> If your voice hasn’t returned to normal after <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/laryngitis">two to three weeks</a>, you should seek medical attention from your doctor, who may refer you to an ear nose and throat specialist. If you’ve developed a nodule, the specialist would likely refer you to a speech pathologist who will show you how to take care of your voice. Many nodules can be <a href="https://britishvoiceassociation.org.uk/voicecare_vocal-nodules.htm">treated</a> with voice therapy and don’t require surgery. You may have also developed a habit of straining your vocal cords, if you forced yourself to speak or sing while they were inflamed. This can be a reason why some people continue to have a hoarse voice even when they’ve recovered from the cold. In those cases, a speech pathologist may play a valuable role. They may teach you to exercises that make voicing more efficient. For example, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwNPp-RS4IY">lip trills</a> (blowing raspberries) are a fun and easy way you can learn to relax the voice. This can help break the habit of straining your voice you may have developed during infection.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/236398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/yeptain-leung-1563747">Yeptain Leung</a>, Postdoctoral Research and Lecturer of Speech Pathology, School of Health Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ive-recovered-from-a-cold-but-i-still-have-a-hoarse-voice-what-should-i-do-236398">original article</a>. </div>

Body

No, your aches and pains don’t get worse in the cold. So why do we think they do?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> It’s cold and wet outside. As you get out of bed, you can feel it in your bones. Your right knee is flaring up again. That’ll make it harder for you to walk the dog or go to the gym. You think it must be because of the weather. It’s a common idea, but a myth. When we looked at the evidence, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049017224000337">we found</a> no direct link between most common aches and pains and the weather. In the first study of its kind, we found no direct link between the temperature or humidity with most joint or muscle aches and pains. So why are so many of us convinced the weather’s to blame? Here’s what we think is really going on. <h2>Weather can be linked to your health</h2> The weather is often associated with the risk of new and ongoing health conditions. For example, cold temperatures <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27021573/">may worsen</a> asthma symptoms. Hot temperatures <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(22)00117-6/fulltext">increase the risk</a> of heart problems, such as arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat), cardiac arrest and coronary heart disease. Many people are also convinced the weather is linked to their aches and pains. For example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1479-8077.2004.00099.x?casa_token=jvpSbA4szqoAAAAA%3ATyHyGaqXmfevWyuJe6LW_3Pap3IPHC8HSMTl3RN63mFzNO0X7ozQjBb6Bi3yVFuPjqkrf-WlB-J5A1q1">two in every three</a> people with knee, hip or hand osteoarthritis <a href="https://bmcmusculoskeletdisord.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2474-15-66">say</a> cold temperatures trigger their symptoms. Musculoskeletal conditions affect more than <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/chronic-musculoskeletal-conditions/musculoskeletal-conditions-comorbidity-australia/summary">seven million Australians</a>. So we set out to find out whether weather is really the culprit behind winter flare-ups. <h2>What we did</h2> Very few studies have been specifically and appropriately designed to look for any direct link between weather changes and joint or muscle pain. And ours is the first to evaluate data from these particular studies. We looked at data from more than 15,000 people from around the world. Together, these people reported more than 28,000 episodes of pain, mostly back pain, knee or hip osteoarthritis. People with rheumatoid arthritis and gout were also included. We then compared the frequency of those pain reports between different types of weather: hot or cold, humid or dry, rainy, windy, as well as some combinations (for example, hot and humid versus cold and dry). <h2>What we found</h2> We found changes in air temperature, humidity, air pressure and rainfall do not increase the risk of knee, hip or lower back pain symptoms and are not associated with people seeking care for a new episode of arthritis. The results of this study suggest we do not experience joint or muscle pain flare-ups as a result of changes in the weather, and a cold day will not increase our risk of having knee or back pain. In order words, there is no direct link between the weather and back, knee or hip pain, nor will it give you arthritis. It is important to note, though, that very cold air temperatures (under 10°C) were rarely studied so we cannot make conclusions about worsening symptoms in more extreme changes in the weather. The only exception to our findings was for gout, an inflammatory type of arthritis that can come and go. Here, pain increased in warmer, dry conditions. Gout has a very different underlying biological mechanism to back pain or knee and hip osteoarthritis, which may explain our results. The combination of warm and dry weather may lead to increased dehydration and consequently increased concentration of uric acid in the blood, and deposition of uric acid crystals in the joint in people with gout, resulting in a flare-up. <h2>Why do people blame the weather?</h2> The weather can influence other factors and behaviours that consequently shape how we perceive and manage pain. For example, some people may change their physical activity routine during winter, choosing the couch over the gym. And we know <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28700451/">prolonged sitting</a>, for instance, is directly linked to worse back pain. Others may change their sleep routine or sleep less well when it is either too cold or too warm. Once again, a bad night’s sleep can trigger your <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain. Likewise, changes in mood, often experienced in cold weather, trigger increases in both <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00586-021-06730-6">back</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1063458421007020">knee</a> pain. So these changes in behaviour over winter may contribute to more aches and pains, and not the weather itself. Believing our pain will feel worse in winter (even if this is not the case) may also make us feel worse in winter. This is known as the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12891-018-1943-8">nocebo effect</a>. <h2>What to do about winter aches and pains?</h2> It’s best to focus on risk factors for pain you can control and modify, rather than ones you can’t (such as the weather). You can: <ul> <li> become more physically active. This winter, and throughout the year, aim to walk more, or talk to your health-care provider about gentle exercises you can safely do at home, with a physiotherapist, personal trainer or at the pool </li> <li> lose weight if obese or overweight, as this is linked to <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2799405">lower levels</a> of joint pain and better physical function </li> <li> keep your body warm in winter if you feel some muscle tension in uncomfortably cold conditions. Also ensure your bedroom is nice and warm as we tend to sleep <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0033350623003359">less well</a> in cold rooms </li> <li> maintain a healthy diet and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(23)00098-X/fulltext">avoid smoking</a> or drinking high levels of alcohol. These are among <a href="https://ard.bmj.com/content/annrheumdis/82/1/48.full.pdf">key lifestyle recommendations</a> to better manage many types of arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions. For people with back pain, for example, a healthy lifestyle is linked with <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36208321/">higher levels</a> of physical function.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235117/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> </li> </ul> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/manuela-ferreira-161420">Manuela Ferreira</a>, Professor of Musculoskeletal Health, Head of Musculoskeletal Program, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/george-institute-for-global-health-874">George Institute for Global Health</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/leticia-deveza-1550633">Leticia Deveza</a>, Rheumatologist and Research Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-your-aches-and-pains-dont-get-worse-in-the-cold-so-why-do-we-think-they-do-235117">original article</a>. </div>

Body

Antarctic heat, wild Australian winter: what’s happening to the weather and what it means for the rest of the year

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Australia’s south and east have seen <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">freezing temperatures</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/jul/29/australia-winter-weather-forecast-east-coast-colder-records">wild weather</a> this winter. At the same time, the continent as a whole – and the globe – have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-03/australia-suffers-cold-winter-weather-despite-mild-forecast/104176284">continued to warm</a>. What’s going on? As ever, it’s hard to pinpoint a single cause for weather events. But a key player is likely an event unfolding high above Antarctica, which itself may have been triggered by a heatwave at surface level on the frozen continent. Here’s what’s happening – and what it might mean for the rest of this year’s weather. <h2>When the stratosphere heats up</h2> Out story begins in the cold air over Antarctica. July temperatures in the stratosphere, the layer of air stretching between altitudes of around 10 and 50 kilometres, are typically around –80°C. The winds are also very strong, averaging about 300 kilometres per hour in winter. These cold, fast winds loop around above the pole in what is called the <a href="https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/waugh/research/polarvortex">stratospheric polar vortex</a>. Occasionally, persistent high air pressure in the lower atmosphere can influence large-scale waves that extend around the globe and up into the stratosphere. There they cause the strong winds to slow down, and the air high above the pole to become much warmer than normal. In extreme situations the stratospheric winds can completely break down, in what is called a “sudden stratospheric warming” event. These events occur every few years in the northern hemisphere, but only one has ever been observed in the south, in 2002 (though another <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080">almost happened in 2019</a>). <h2>Pushing polar weather our way</h2> Once the polar vortex is disturbed, it can in turn influence the weather at the surface by steering weather systems from the Southern Ocean towards the Equator. However, this is a slow process. The impact at the surface may not be felt until <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">a few weeks or even months</a> after the initial weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Once it begins, the stratospheric influence can prevail for more weeks or months, and helps meteorologists make <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022">long-range weather forecasts</a>. In climate science terms, the weak stratospheric winds put an atmospheric system called the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/sam/">Southern Annular Mode</a> into a negative phase. The main effect of this on surface weather is to bring westerly winds further north. In winter, this means polar air outbreaks can reach places like Sydney more easily. As a result, we see more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4134.1">rain over much of southern Australia</a>, and snowfall in alpine regions. In spring and summer it means westerly winds blow over the continent before reaching the east coast, bringing warm and dry air to southeastern Australia. The exact impact of a weaker polar vortex depends on how much and for how long the weather systems are being pushed further northward. It will also depend on other weather influencers such as El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole. <h1>This winter’s weirdness</h1> Unpicking exactly why any weather event occurs is tricky at the moment, because global weather has been absolutely crazy over the past 12 months or so. Global temperatures are <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-blew-past-1-5-degrees-game-over-on-climate-not-yet-213364">much higher than usual</a>, which is making unusual weather very common. But there are indications that the stratosphere is having some influence on our weather this winter. The stratospheric polar vortex started to warm in mid-July, and is about 20°C warmer than the long-term average. At the time of writing, the winds slowed down to about 230 kilometres per hour, 70 kilometres per hour slower than average. These numbers mean that, technically, the event does not qualify as a sudden stratospheric warming. However, further warming may still occur. If we look at how southern hemisphere winds have evolved in the past few weeks, we see a pattern which looks like what we would expect from a sudden stratospheric warming. First, we see warming in the stratosphere which is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095270">at first accompanied by a poleward shift of weather systems</a>. The stratosphere’s influence then propagates downward and seems to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">induce many weeks</a> of weather systems shifted towards the equator. This coincides with the period of cold and rainy weather along Australia’s east coast in late July and the beginning of August. Forecasts suggest the Southern Annular Mode will be a long way from normal conditions in the first half of August – four standard deviations below average, which is extremely rare. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/611211/original/file-20240804-19-sp862a.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Diagram showing atmospheric warming and winds" /></a><figcaption>How initial warming high in the stratosphere ends up changing winds near the surface and pushing polar weather further north. <a class="source" href="https://stratobserve.com">Z.D. Lawrence / StratObserve / Annotated by Martin Jucker</a></figcaption></figure> <h1>A surface disturbance</h1> The main reason for the polar vortex to slow down is disturbances from the surface. Weather over the Amundsen Sea near Antarctica in the South Pacific is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0425.1">an important source</a> of these disturbances. This year, we have seen disturbances of this sort. There have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/01/antarctic-temperatures-rise-10c-above-average-in-near-record-heatwave">near-record surface temperatures around Antarctica</a>. These disturbances may be due to the globally high ocean temperatures, or even lingering effects of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0437.1">eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano in 2022</a>. But more research will be required to confirm the causes. <h1>What should we expect for the rest of the year?</h1> There are two pathways until the end of the year. One is that the stratospheric winds and temperatures recover to their usual values and no longer influence surface weather. This is what the forecasts from <a href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov">Ozone Watch</a> seem to suggest. Another is that the stratosphere keeps warming and the winds keep being slower all the way into summer. In this scenario, we would expect a persistent negative Southern Annular Mode, which would mean a spring and potentially even summer with warmer and drier than usual weather over southeastern Australia, and a small ozone hole. The seasonal forecasting models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts <a href="https://x.com/drahbutler/status/1819142206348759170?s=46&t=sayfGwpo3_s310BwYpcdcQ">seem to favour this second scenario</a>. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/martin-jucker-379172">Martin Jucker</a>, Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctic-heat-wild-australian-winter-whats-happening-to-the-weather-and-what-it-means-for-the-rest-of-the-year-236067">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected. It’s important for scientists to better understand all weather processes at play, so we can manage expectations around what Australia might experience when climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are forecast in future. That’s where our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0112.1/MWR-D-23-0112.1.xml">new research</a> comes in. We examined the state of play in November 2020 and November 2021. La Niña conditions occurred in both years. November 2021 followed the La Niña script and was wet and cool, but November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. We set out to determine why. We found the differences could be explained by fluctuations in the path of storms over the Australian continent. These fluctuations can be hard to predict well in advance, which makes it difficult to say for certain how a particular La Niña or El Niño event will affect Australia. <h2>A tale of two Novembers</h2> For large parts of Australia, the presence of a La Niña or El Niño <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-an-el-nino-the-answer-might-surprise-you-198510">shifts the odds</a> of experiencing wet or dry conditions. Our analysis of Novembers 2020 and 2021 shows how actual outcomes can differ from, or align with, expectations. The first step in our analysis was to examine <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">other climate drivers</a>, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. We wanted to know if these drivers were in the same phase – negative, neutral or positive – during those two Novembers a year apart. So what did we find? In addition to La Nina, both Novembers occurred during positive Southern Annular Mode phases and very weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases. These phases are typically associated with more rainfall in Australia. So this didn’t explain why November 2020 was hot and dry. Next, we looked to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden Julian Oscillation</a>. When this driver is located in the Australian region, it has been linked to more rainfall in Australia. Although the oscillation was in different phases during November 2020 and 2021, we found in general, this driver does not strongly influence rainfall across all of Australia in November. It was time to look for answers elsewhere. <h2>Jet streams: a key piece in the puzzle</h2> Next, we examined weather systems – in other words, the movement of high and low pressure systems across the globe. These systems are partly controlled by jet streams, which are bands of wind in the upper atmosphere. The effect of jet streams on weather systems, including storms, means they influence rainfall in the regions they pass over. We found there was a strong jet stream over Australia in November 2021. This would have assisted the development of any rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving in from the west, allowing these systems to travel across the Australian continent. These systems brought rain and contributed to the very wet conditions. In November 2020, the jet stream was largely absent over Australia. Instead, it was pushed south of the continent, which means rainfall systems received little help and were also largely steered south. That contributed to the dry month. But why did the jet streams develop in the first place? They form in part due to temperature differences, and are found in the zones where the temperature contrast between warm and cool air is strongest. In November 2021, Australia experienced cooler temperatures over land, but above-average sea surface temperatures in the waters off northern Australia. This pattern set up the zone of strongest temperature contrasts over the continent, which led to a persistent jet stream there. In November 2020, Australia was relatively warm both over land and on the sea surface to the north. This meant that the strongest temperature contrasts (and the jet stream) now sat at the junction between the warm continent and cooler Southern Ocean. <h2>But wait, there’s more</h2> So why were temperatures over Australia so different? To help answer this question we shifted our analysis from the monthly timescale to the daily timescale. That’s because atmospheric features such as jet streams vary strongly from day to day. We found for about the first three weeks of November 2021, a large low-pressure system – also known as a trough – was sitting south of Australia. It pumped cold air onto the continent, cooling it down. This maximised the north-south temperature difference between the warm sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and the cool of the continent. And as we know, this aided the development of the jet stream over Australia. In November 2020, the continent started off relatively warm. And for a large portion of the month, there was a large high-pressure system over Australia, pulling warmer air from the tropics over the continent. This system would have also promoted clear skies over Australia and enhanced heating coming from the sun, contributing to the warm Australian continent in November 2020. <h2>More puzzle pieces to fit</h2> November 2020’s hot, dry conditions were not the only time a climate driver has failed to bring the conditions some had anticipated. Just last year El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened">did not deliver</a> expected dry conditions, leaving many people scratching their heads. Climate drivers play an important role in shaping rainfall. But they’re not the whole story. As our research shows, sometimes they are confounded by changes in weather patterns, which might mean that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out. When it comes to Australia’s climate puzzle, these findings show there’s more to understand about the role of weather.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, Senior Research Scientist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, Researcher, Oceans and Atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-climate-confusing-you-heres-why-rainfall-and-temperatures-dont-always-behave-as-expected-233345">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Major breakthrough solves 44-year-old cold case

A decades-old mystery surrounding a human jawbone found on Umina Beach on the NSW Central Coast has been solved, thanks to advances in DNA analysis techniques. The jawbone, discovered by a dog walker in June 2020, was recently identified as belonging to a teenager who tragically drowned nearly half a century ago. Police announced the breakthrough in a statement on Sunday, revealing that the jawbone belonged to Henry Coleman, a 17-year-old who died in an accidental drowning on the Central Coast in August 1980. The remains, though blackened, were remarkably well-preserved and still contained some teeth when found on the beach. Detectives initially determined the remains were human and male, but extensive traditional inquiries failed to establish an identity. It wasn't until March 2023 that a major breakthrough was made using new DNA analysis technology. This technology, which combines advanced DNA analysis with traditional genealogy, allowed investigators to use commercial DNA databases to identify suspects and unknown remains. The key to solving the case was a genetic link to a possible living relative. A voluntary DNA sample from this relative confirmed the jawbone belonged to Coleman. The young man had been laid to rest in the 1980s, but it was not known at the time that part of his jaw was missing. Detective Inspector Ritchie Sim highlighted the importance of public participation in resolving missing persons cases. "This investigation showcases the importance of DNA testing in missing person cases," he said. "Without the combined efforts of our detectives, scientists, and analysts, we would not have been able to return these remains to their resting place and provide closure to Mr Coleman’s family." Sim went on to urge those who have reported a family member missing to police, and who have the Event number, to provide their DNA at a local police station. "Just like in Mr Coleman’s case, your relationship with the missing person can be several generations apart," he added. Images: 7News

Legal

Ted Bundy cold case finally solved after 51 years

In March 1973 the half-naked body of Ann Woodward was found brutally murdered on the floor inside the pub that she owned with her husband. The 46-year-old mother's body was discovered between two pool tables, with her shirt unbuttoned and pants used to strangle her. Her murder has haunted the small US desert town of Moab, Utah for over half a century. While police were never able to find her killer, they believed Ted Bundy was the likely culprit, as he had raped and killed multiple women in the area around the time of her death. While Bundy admitted to thirty murders, his real victim count is unknown. However, they had not been able to prove that he was the culprit due to a lack of evidence, so police assumed she was just another one of his unnamed victims. 25 other men, including Douglas Keith Chudomelka, had also been of interest to police after the crime, as witnesses spotted Chudomelka's sedan parked near the victims car on the night of the murder. However, when Chudomelka was interviewed the next day, he denied being at the bar, and insisted that he was at a nearby tavern. His girlfriend at the time, a woman named Joyce, also backed his statement and said he was home at the time of the murder on March 2, 1973. A few months later, Chudomelka was arrested on a domestic violence charge, with an angry Joyce claiming he had been the one who killed Ann Woodward, but she soon retracted her statement. With no new leads, the case went cold, but forward-thinking Police Chief Melvin Dalton, decided to keep DNA evidence from both the victim and all potential suspects anyways, in hopes that one day the right technology would be used to identify the killer. In 2006, Dalton reopened the case, but had no luck until September 2023, when Detective Jeremy Dexler decided to uncover the two boxes of evidence collected from the initial investigation and send it to the crime lab. The DNA evidence had sat at the Moab police department's storage units for over 50 years and was not easy to locate as it had been moved to another building. The evidence was crucial in solving the cold case. When results from the crime lab came back at the end of May 2024, they confirmed that a substantial amount of Chudomelka’s DNA was on the inside of Ann’s pants and on all of the buttons of her shirt. This was enough to confirm that Chudomelka was the one responsible for Ann Woodward's murder. He was 36 when he committed the crime. Chudomelka was not known to the victim, but Detective Drexler believes that he may have played a game of poker with Ann when he visited the pub, and may have been angry at her for beating him. He added that it could have also been a crime of opportunity rather than rage as he had a violent history. Detective Drexler praised Dalton's forward-thinking for being the reason why they solved the case. “This case hinged on the hair Dalton pulled in 1973,” Drexler said. “I have no idea how he knew that we would be able to do that today. Dalton made this case very easy for us in that aspect.” Chudomelka passed away in 2002 at the age of 67 without ever paying for his crime, but County Lawyer Stephen Stocks believes that if he was still alive, he would've been found guilty of murder. “I hope today brings some closure to the family,” he said. “I truly believe had this been presented to a jury, Chudomelka would have been found guilty beyond reasonable doubt for the murder of Ann Woodward.” Images: Moab Police Department

Legal

Southern Australia is freezing. How can it be so cold in a warming climate?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> People living in southern Australia won’t have failed to notice how cold it is. Frosty nights and chilly days have been the weather for many of us since the start of July. As winter continues, we are left wondering how unusual the cold is and whether we can expect several more months of this. Warmer conditions are in the forecast but winter has a long way to go. Further cold snaps could occur. Cold conditions have been in place across southern Australia for the past few days. Temperatures have fallen below zero overnight in many places. It’s not just the nights that have been cold. Maximum temperatures have also been below or well below average across most of the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperatures have been below average across most of the continent since the last day of June. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>What’s causing the cold?</h2> A <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">persistent and strong high-pressure system</a> has been hanging around over southeast Australia. The atmospheric pressure was so high it approached the Australian record of 1,044.3 hPa set on June 7 1967. An <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-04/australias-highest-air-pressure-recorded-weather/104055462">initial observation</a> of a new record has since been disregarded, but nonetheless this is an exceptional, near-record high-pressure pattern. This high-pressure system has kept the weather dry but clear nights have allowed strong cooling of the land surface. The long nights and short days of early July mean that temperatures struggle to rise during the day and can fall quickly in the evenings. In winter we expect cold weather across most of Australia and occasional cold snaps that bring widespread frosty and icy conditions. However, this current cold weather is pretty unusual and we are seeing some records fall. Notably, Tasmania has had its <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmanias-2ndcoldest-night-on-record/1889603">lowest July temperature on record</a> and the second-lowest minimum temperature for any time of year with –13.5°C at Liawenee in central Tasmania early on Thursday morning. While Tasmania has produced the most remarkable records, the cold conditions have been unusual elsewhere too. Adelaide recorded its lowest temperature in 18 years on Wednesday morning. And many suburbs of Melbourne experienced a sub-zero night and consecutive nights of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/frost-and-ice/frost">ground frost</a>. <h2>Winters are warming but cold spells still occur</h2> As the world is warming, it might seem surprising we can still break cold records. Indeed, across Australia <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0608&ave_yr=0&ave_period=6190">winters have been warming</a>. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=CN05&period=1950">frequency</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=TNmn&period=1950">intensity</a> of very low temperatures have been decreasing over the past few decades. We also see many more hot records than cold records being set in Australia and around the globe. This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">due to human-caused climate change</a>. However, when we have the right weather conditions, cold records are still occasionally broken locally. As we continue to warm the planet, it’s getting harder for us to find cold records, particularly over larger regions or longer time periods. While we still see record cold temperatures at individual weather stations, we won’t see another cold record in the global average temperature and probably not even in the Australian average temperature. As this week shows, we still occasionally get daily cold records in the current climate. But it’s much harder to get record cold months, and record cold years at a given location are almost impossible. As we average weather conditions across locations or over time, the climate change signal becomes clearer over background weather variability. It makes new cold records much less likely to occur. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A graphic showing the increase in annual average temperature for Australia from 1910 to 2023" /></a><figcaption>The climate change signal is becoming clearer as Australia’s annual average temperature continues to increase with each decade, widening the difference from the long-term mean. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Temperature">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How much longer will this cold snap last?</h2> Southern Australia is experiencing a cold snap at close to the coldest time of year. It’s not long after the winter solstice, when we experience the longest night of the year. We still have a few more cold days and nights ahead in parts of southeastern Australia. By early next week, the forecast suggests <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml">warmer conditions</a> will return as the high-pressure system moves east and winds turn northerly. The outlook for the rest of winter points firmly to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">above-average daytime and night-time temperatures</a>. This is partly because a historical average (1981–2018) is used and warming since then means above-average temperatures are going to happen most of the time. In any winter, Australia has cold outbreaks. So, even if the next few months are likely to be warmer than normal, we should expect a few cold days and nights at some point. Learning to live with the cold and improving the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/03/why-so-many-australian-homes-are-either-too-hot-or-too-cold">quality of insulation in Australian homes</a> would help make our winter cold snaps seem a lot less harsh.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233977/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Flight attendant reveals the unexpected reason why it's so cold on planes

When it comes to packing essentials in your carry-on for your next flight, many people add a jumper, extra socks, or even their own blanket to their bags. Because one thing’s for sure: you’ll probably be cold on your flight. But have you ever stopped to think of the reason why the cabin of a plane is so cold? According to a Canadian flight attendant, it's to do with keeping you feeling good. Vanessa Settimi told Reader's Digest that a cooler cabin helps passengers who are prone to fainting or have motion sickness during turbulence. She also clarified that despite what travellers may think, cabin crew don’t have control over the cabin temperature. "Temperature in the cabin is controlled by the pilots. Even though travellers often ask to get the temperature turned up during flights, it is kept on the cooler side." She went on to say that the key to staying warm on your next flight is bringing extra layers. "Now this might just be the flight attendant in me," says Settimi, "but you will never catch me flying as a traveller in sandals and a tank top!" Image credits: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Cold Chisel share major announcement

Cold Chisel have announced a national tour to celebrate their 50th anniversary. The iconic Aussie rock band will visit a number of capital cities for <a href="https://www.coldchisel.com/tour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Big Five-O tour</a>, which will be a celebration of their biggest hits spanning five decades. The anniversary party will kick off in the NSW city of Armidale on October 5th, paying tribute to the town where they based themselves out of in the early days of their career. In the months after undergoing open heart surgery, Cold Chisel frontman Jimmy Barnes said touring Australia was a number one priority. "The Big Five-0 is a landmark moment," Barnes said. "There have been plenty of times where I never thought I'd live to see this day so I'm going to make the most of it." "I can't wait to celebrate with my mates and with all the fans who have been such a big part of our story. We're gonna smash it!" In addition to the tour, the band will be releasing a Best Of album in August, which is set to be jam packed with all their biggest hits. Check out the dates for The Big Five-O tour below. <ul> <li>October 5 - Petersons Winery, Armidale, NSW (Red Hot Summer tour)</li> <li>October 8 - Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre</li> <li>October 11 - The Entertainment Quarter, Moore Park, Sydney</li> <li>October 15 - WIN Entertainment Centre, Wollongong</li> <li>October 19 - Sandalford Wines, Swan Valley, WA (Red Hot Summer Tour)</li> <li>October 25 - Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne</li> <li>November 2 - Victoria Park, Brisbane</li> <li>November 6 - Newcastle Entertainment Centre</li> <li>November 9 - Victoria Park, Ballarat (Red Hot Summer tour)</li> <li>November 13 - MyState Bank Arena, Hobart</li> <li>November 17 - VAILO Adelaide 500, Post Race Concert, Adelaide</li> </ul> Fan Presale will begin from 12pm on Friday May 31st, while General Public tickets will go on sale from 12pm on June 4th. Image credits: SplashNews.com/Shutterstock Editorial

Domestic Travel

Why a cold beer is best – chemically speaking

A quiet moment in a bar has led two researchers to study how alcohol tastes at different temperatures. No, this is real science. <div class="copy"> “Two years ago, Xiaotao Yang and I were drinking beer together. He had just finished his doctorate degree thesis and asked me, ‘what should we do next?’” says Lei Jiang, lead author of a new study <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matt.2024.03.017" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published</a> in the materials science journal Matter. Yang and Jiang are material scientists at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. “At the time, I was a scientific committee member of one of the biggest Chinese alcoholic beverage companies, and I had the idea to ask the question ‘why does Chinese baijiu have a very particular concentration of alcohol, either 38%–42%, 52%–53%, or 68%–75%?’” Baijiu is a clear grain liquor from East Asia. It’s typically distilled from fermented sorghum (a type of grass), though it is also sometimes made from rice, wheat, barley or millet. “Then we decided, let’s try something, so I put a drop of beer on my hand to see the contact angle,” says Jiang. Contact angle is a measure of surface tension. For example, water has a low contact angle which is why it appears bead-like when placed on a surface. Solutions with high <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/body-and-mind/debunks-vices-alcohol/">alcohol</a> concentration, however, have a higher contact angle meaning they flatten and spread out. Contact angle also reveals how molecules within the droplet interact with each other and the surface below. After plotting the concentration of ethanol (alcohol) against contact angle, the scientists were surprised with what they found. There is no linear relationship between alcohol concentration and contact angle. Instead, increasing the amount of alcohol leads to a series of plateaus and sharp rises in the plot. Further experiments showed that this arises out of the formation of clusters of ethanol and water in the solutions. At low concentrations, ethanol forms pyramid-like structures around the water molecules. At high concentrations, the ethanol molecules arrange end-to-end in a chain. They also found that these structures change depending on temperature. For example, 38%–42% and 52%–53% ethanol solutions have distinct cluster structures at around room temperature, but this difference disappears at higher temperatures, like 40°C. “Although there is only 1% difference, the taste of baijiu at 51% and 52% is noticeably different; the taste of baijiu at 51% is similar to that of lower alcohol content, such as 38%–42%. So, in order to achieve the same taste at a lower alcohol content, the distribution of baijiu products ranges most within the 38%–42% and 52%–53% categories,” says Jiang. The researchers also found that there is an increase in ethanol chains at 5°C in 5% and 11% ethanol solutions – the concentration range of beer – giving it a more “ethanol-like” taste which is generally preferred. “At low temperature, the tetrahedral (pyramid-shaped) clusters become the low concentration amount, and this is why we drink cold beer,” says Jiang. The researchers say their research could help beverage companies produce the best flavour with the lowest alcohol concentration. Image credits: Shutterstock <div> <noscript data-spai="1"><img decoding="async" fetchpriority="high" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-198773" src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossy+ret_img+to_auto/cosmosmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Cosmos-Catch-Up-embed_728x150-1.jpg" data-spai-egr="1" alt="Sign up to our weekly newsletter" width="600" height="154" title="why a cold beer is best – chemically speaking 2"></noscript> </div>  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=303282&title=Why+a+cold+beer+is+best+%E2%80%93+chemically+speaking" width="1" height="1" loading="lazy" aria-label="Syndication Tracker" data-spai-target="src" data-spai-orig="" data-spai-exclude="nocdn" /> </div> <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/chemistry/beer-taste-temperature/">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/evrim-yazgin/">Evrim Yazgin</a>. </div>

Food & Wine

Dog care below freezing − how to keep your pet warm and safe from cold weather, road salt and more this winter

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erik-christian-olstad-1505284">Erik Christian Olstad</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-davis-1312">University of California, Davis</a> Time outside with your dog in the spring, summer and fall can be lovely. Visiting your favorite downtown café on a cool spring morning, going to a favorite dog park on a clear summer evening or going on walks along a river when the leaves are changing color are all wonderful when the weather is favorable. But in much of the country, when winter rolls around, previously hospitable conditions can <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-winter-miserable-for-wildlife-108734">quickly turn chilly and dangerous</a> for people and pups alike. Winter brings some unique challenges for dog owners, since dogs still need activity and socialization during colder seasons. Studies have shown that dog owners are almost 50% less likely to walk their dogs <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11113302">when the weather gets cold</a>. Knowing the basics of winter safety is critical to maintaining a healthy lifestyle for your dog. I am an <a href="https://www.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/faculty/erik-olstad">assistant professor</a> at the University of California Davis School of Veterinary Medicine who weathered polar vortexes with my dog while living in Michigan early in my career. While I’ve since moved to sunny California, I’ve seen how quickly frigid temperatures can turn dangerous for pets. <h2>Breed and age differences</h2> Not all dogs have the same abilities to deal with cold weather. A short-coated dog like a Chihuahua is much more susceptible to the dangers of cold weather than a thick-coated husky. When the weather dips below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius), the well-acclimated husky may be comfortable, whereas the Chihuahua would shiver and be at risk of hypothermia. Additionally, if your dog is used to warm weather, but you decide to move to a colder region, the dog will need time to acclimate to that colder weather, even if they have a thick coat. Age also affects cold-weather resilience. Puppies and elderly dogs can’t withstand the chill as well as other dogs, but every dog is unique – each may have individual health conditions or physical attributes that make them more or less resilient to cold weather. <h2>When is my dog too cold?</h2> Pet owners should be able to recognize the symptoms of a dog that is getting too cold. Dogs will shiver, and some may vocalize or whine. Dogs may resist putting their feet down on the cold ground, or burrow, or try to find warmth in their environment when they are uncomfortable. Just like people, <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">dogs can get frostbite</a>. And just like people, the signs can take days to appear, making it hard to assess them in the moment. The most common sites for frostbite in dogs are their ears and the tips of their tails. Some of the initial signs of frostbite are skin discoloring, turning paler than normal, or purple, gray or even black; red, blistered skin; swelling; pain at the site; <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/ulcer">or ulceration</a>. Other <a href="https://vcahospitals.com/know-your-pet/frostbite-in-dogs">serious signs of hypothermia</a> include sluggishness or lethargy, and if you observe them, please visit your veterinarian immediately. A good rule to live by is if it is too cold for you, it is too cold for your dog. Getting your dog a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/cnn-underscored/pets/best-winter-dog-coats-jackets">sweater or jacket</a> and <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/vets-corner/protect-dogs-paws-snow-ice-salt/">paw covers</a> can provide them with protection from the elements and keep them comfortable. Veterinarians also recommend closely monitoring your dog and limiting their time outside when the temperature nears the freezing point or drops below it. <h2>Road salt dangers</h2> Road salt that treats ice on streets and sidewalks <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ice-salt-toxic-for-pets-1.5020088">can also harm dogs</a>. When dogs walk on the salt, the sharp, rough edges of the salt crystals can irritate the sensitive skin on their paws. Dogs will often lick their feet when they’re dirty, wet or irritated, and if they ingest any salt doing that, they may face GI upset, dehydration, kidney failure, seizures or even death. Even small amounts of pure salt can <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-tips/my-dog-ate-road-salt-will-they-be-okay/">disrupt critical body functions</a> in dogs. Some companies make pet-safe salt, but in public it can be hard to tell what type of salt is on the ground. After walking your dog, wash off their feet or boots. You can also keep their paw fur trimmed to prevent snow from balling up or salt collecting in the fur. Applying a thin layer of petroleum jelly or <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/how-to-make-your-own-paw-balm-for-winter/">paw pad balm</a> to the skin of the paw pads can also help protect your pet’s paws from irritation. <h2>Antifreeze risks</h2> <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/antifreeze-chemical-substance">Antifreeze, or ethylene glycol</a>, is in most vehicles to prevent the fluids from freezing when it gets cold out. Some people pour antifreeze into their toilets when away from their home to prevent the water in the toilet from freezing. Antifreeze is an exceptionally dangerous chemical to dogs and cats, as it tastes sweet but can be deadly when ingested. If a pet ingests even a small amount of antifreeze, the substance causes a chemical cascade in their body that results in severe kidney damage. If left untreated, the pet may have <a href="https://www.petpoisonhelpline.com/pet-owner-blog/antifreeze-poisoning/">permanent kidney damage or die</a>. There are safer antifreeze options on the market that use ingredients other than ethylene glycol. If your dog ingests antifreeze, please see your veterinarian immediately for treatment. When temperatures dip below freezing, the best thing pet owners can do is keep the time spent outside as minimal as possible. Try some <a href="https://www.akc.org/expert-advice/lifestyle/great-indoor-games-to-play-with-your-dog/">indoor activities</a>, like hide-and-seek with low-calorie treats, fetch or even an interactive obstacle course. Food puzzles can also keep your dog mentally engaged during indoor time. Although winter presents some unique challenges, it can still be an enjoyable and healthy time for you and your canine companion.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221709/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/erik-christian-olstad-1505284">Erik Christian Olstad</a>, Health Sciences Assistant Professor of Clinical Veterinary Medicine, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-california-davis-1312">University of California, Davis</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/dog-care-below-freezing-how-to-keep-your-pet-warm-and-safe-from-cold-weather-road-salt-and-more-this-winter-221709">original article</a>. </div>

Family & Pets

Huge reward to help solve cold case of missing mum

Police are offering a $500,000 reward for information to help solve a cold case that suspect was a murder. Tammy Lisa Dyson, also known as Tamela Menzies, was 23 when went missing from the Currumbin area in 1995. The mother of two was picked up from a drug rehab clinic by a woman claiming to be her sister on July 20, 1995 and has not been seen since. Dyson was born and raised in Victoria before moving to Brisbane in 1988, where she worked in the adult entertainment industry under the nickname "Pebbles". Police believe she began mixing with criminals and using drugs while working in strip clubs on the Gold Coast. In early 1995 Dyson arranged for her young sons, Jyles and Rainey, to stay with their grandmother in Victoria temporarily. A few months later she made a distressed call to her sister Olivia, who said she had been assaulted. Olivia and her partner then dropped Dyson off to a drug rehabilitation centre at Currumbin on the Gold Coast, and on July 20, 1995 she was picked up by someone claiming to be her sister. The following day, Tammy completed a statutory declaration signed by a Justice of the Peace in Tweed Heads, giving custody of her children and her possessions to her mother. She also called her sister one last time, with Olivia recalling that Tammy "didn't sound like herself" and she had mentioned underworld figures. Police have received a number of reported sightings of Tammy since 1995 but all proof of life inquiries have been proven negative. In 2012, the Queensland coroner said that they believed Tammy was deceased and indicated that she may have been a victim of violence, although a certain date, time and cause of death have not been determined. Police are now offering the huge reward for new information and immunity from prosecution for any accomplice who comes forward. "Tammy associated with criminals that were known to police and vanished without a trace after giving custody of her children and possessions to her mother; we believe the circumstances of her disappearance is suspicious," Detective Senior Sergeant Tara Kentwell said. On Wednesday, her sons, who were only three and one when their mother disappeared, made an emotional appeal for public help to find her. "Growing up without mum and not knowing what happened to her has been very hard," Jyles Lebler said through tears during a media conference. "Whoever has picked her up, I'm not saying they have done something but they must know something bad has happened." "We hope we find out what to mum to give grandma some closure before it's too late," Rainey added. Images: Queensland Police

Legal

Yes, it’s getting more humid in summer. Here’s why

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-sherwood-272">Steven Sherwood</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Has Sydney felt more like Cairns lately? You’re not imagining it – millions of Australians up and down the east coast have sweltered through exceptionally high humidity in recent weeks. It’s due to normal weather patterns combined with a boost from global warming. Right now, the temperature of the sea surface is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC052.Aus.SSTAnomaly.shtml">1–3°C above normal</a> for this time of year up and down the east coast. It’s particularly hot around the Queensland-New South Wales border and Tasmania’s east coast. When we have high ocean temperatures, we get more water evaporating. This is taken up by the air, which can hold more moisture when the air is hotter. This moist air is then carried to us by winds, and the sweating begins. <h2>Where does humidity come from?</h2> Humidity is just gaseous water held in the air after evaporating from liquid water or ice. It is called a vapour because it condenses into rain — the more humid, the more likely rain is. Higher humidity makes us feel hotter in warm weather, and slows the drying of laundry on a clothesline or of plants in the garden. How do we measure it? Two common ways are the “dew point” and “relative humidity”. At any given air temperature, there’s a limit to how much vapour the air will retain. Any vapour above this limit will just condense out. But the limit roughly doubles with every 10°C of warming; the dew point is the temperature where the vapour would hit the limit. The less vapour there is in the air, the colder the dew point. Relative humidity is the ratio of how much vapour the air has compared to the maximum it would retain. If you’re in Tasmania and see that relative humidity is at 100%, you might be confused. But this measure essentially tracks how “full” the air is. At 100% relative humidity, the dew point matches the actual temperature and no more vapour can be added. If the dew point is 10°C below the actual temperature, relative humidity is about 50%. How do we measure it? The dew point can be measured directly using a chilled mirror and a laser to detect condensation. More often it’s calculated from measurements of relative humidity and temperature. Relative humidity determines whether material exposed to the air will moisten or dry out. That’s why relative-humidity sensors use cheap water-absorbing materials (early ones used a strand of human hair!). <h2>What does a changing climate mean for humidity?</h2> The world’s higher ocean temperatures are unambiguously attributable to global warming, largely from the greenhouse gases we have added by burning fossil fuels. To date, more than 90% of all the extra heat thereby trapped has gone into the oceans. The amount of water vapour over the oceans has increased by roughly 5% since the industrial era began, in lockstep with global warming. Global warming will continue until we stop it. That means the atmosphere will keep getting more humid. If the world manages to keep global warming below 2°C, we should avoid the worst health outcomes from more humidity. But even then, we would expect up to another 5% increase in peak water vapour. Right now, we are seeing higher-than-normal temperatures in most of our surrounding oceans, with only a few exceptions. The areas hit hardest by rising humidity are mostly those that are already humid, like Queensland and the Northern Territory. Although peak dew points are rising, you may be confused to hear average relative humidity is actually <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1722312115">falling over land</a>. That’s because the land is warming so fast the average dew points aren’t quite keeping up with temperature, lowering the ratio. That means, alas, that Australia faces a double whammy: increasing water stress and bushfire risk as well as sweatier summers. <h2>Humidity can be very dangerous</h2> Our natural cooling system in hot weather is evaporation of sweat. Sweat forms on your skin, and the air evaporates it, taking the heat with it. But this only works to a point. When the dew point is higher, our self-cooling methods get less and less effective. How important this is depends on how hot you feel. On a moderate but muggy day, you might feel fine until you need to climb four flights of stairs and end up sweaty and exhausted. On a hotter but less muggy day you’d feel the heat at the outset, but would more easily handle the stairs. The Bureau of Meteorology uses something called “<a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1153/apparent-feels-like-temperature/">apparent temperature</a>” to capture the combined effect of temperature and humidity, although this assumes you’re not exerting yourself. How you feel with more exertion can be captured by other measures, such as the “wet bulb globe temperature” now being used at sporting events such as the Australian Open. The Bureau has recently begun providing <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/places/nsw/sydney/forecast/detailed/">humidity and apparent temperature forecasts</a> as a beta product, which is great for activity planning. This type of information will become more important as the heat builds. As humidity increases during peak humid heat episodes, it makes heat stress worse and moves us toward our body’s physical limits. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2316003120">Recent research</a> has shown the combination of humidity and heat could make parts of the planet unlivable if Paris Agreement targets are not met, beginning in India and spreading elsewhere in the tropics – including the Top End of Australia. We need to prepare now for increasing heat, while doing everything we can to stop the routine burning of fossil fuels as soon as possible to maintain a margin of safety for humanity.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221748/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/steven-sherwood-272">Steven Sherwood</a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-its-getting-more-humid-in-summer-heres-why-221748">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

What does El Niño do to the weather in your state?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kimberley-reid-767059">Kimberley Reid</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> You’ve probably heard El Niño brings hot and dry weather to the eastern states, but what about the rest of Australia? Are we all in for a scorcher this summer? El Niño is what scientists call a <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/overview/climate-system/australian-climate-influences/">climate driver</a>. But it’s just one of many. These climate drivers control year-to-year variations in the weather. Some years are hotter and drier, while others are cooler and wetter. Australia is particularly prone to weather whiplash because our continent is buffeted by climate drivers to our north, south, east and west. The dominant driver in your state may be one of the lesser-known influences. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iVhi1wq2sTY?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Understanding Climate Drivers (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>East: El Niño Southern Oscillation</h2> The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the resident climate driver in the Pacific Ocean and the driver with the biggest influence over Australian weather. Differences in sea surface temperatures and winds across the Pacific determine whether we swing towards El Niño (the boy) or La Niña (the girl). <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso">During the El Niño phase</a>, sea surface temperatures near South America are warmer than normal and they are cooler than normal off the coast of eastern Australia. Additionally, trade winds that blow from east to west across the Pacific weaken. El Niño brings hotter daytime temperatures, but often <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History">cooler nights</a>. That’s because reduced cloud cover allows more heat to escape into space overnight. So the same process that increases the chances of heatwaves can also raise the <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-weather/historical-frost-and-heat-maps-south-west-land-division">risk of frost</a> in Western Australia, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria. Australia as a whole is typically drier during an El Niño event. In the tropical regions, El Niño can delay the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">onset of the monsoon and reduce the likelihood of tropical cyclones</a>. In the southern states, the hot and dry conditions increase the chance of intense bushfires. La Niña is the opposite phase. Waters off eastern Australia are warmer than usual, increasing the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History&enso-impacts=La-Ni%C3%B1a-impacts">chance of tropical cyclones</a> and an earlier start to the monsoon for WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland. So what does El Niño do to the weather in your state? Hover over your state in the interactive map to find out. <iframe id="tc-infographic-1008" class="tc-infographic" style="border: none;" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1008/7f37ae91389db072906b320ffd54d0fefd840c0d/site/index.html" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <h2>West: Indian Ocean Dipole</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=iod">Indian Ocean Dipole</a> is like ENSO’s Indian Ocean cousin. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is declared when ocean temperatures near Africa are warmer than normal and ocean temperatures off the coast of Sumatra are cooler than usual. A positive dipole tends to bring warmer and drier conditions, particularly to western and central Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the reverse and is associated with wetter than normal weather and an increase in <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/why-more-clouds-can-mean-less-rain-in-australia">northwest cloudbands</a>. <h2>North: Madden-Julian Oscillation</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a> is a pulse of storms that start in the Indian Ocean, travel over Northern Australia and Indonesia and die in the Pacific Ocean. Ahead of the pulse, the air sinks, causing sunny and dry weather. Under the pulse is high storm activity and typically heavy rainfall. We describe the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on whether the pulse of storms is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/">active or inactive</a> and where the storm activity is located on its path between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As well as causing rainfall, the Madden-Julian Oscillation can control the timing of the monsoon onset and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=tc">tropical cyclone formation</a>. <h2>South: Southern Annular Mode</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=sam">Southern Annular Mode</a> controls the north and south position of the westerly winds that whizz around the globe in the Southern Ocean. When the winds are further north than usual, we call this the negative phase. But when the westerly wind move towards Antarctica, we call this the positive phase. The phase of the Southern Annular Mode <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1370">affects how many weather systems</a>, like cold fronts, make landfall over southern Australia. A positive mode may also draw tropical moist air south, which happened in 2022 during the extensive flooding over eastern Australia. <h2>Climate drivers control the odds, but not the result</h2> These four key climate drivers affect the weather on average (over months and seasons), but they do not dictate the exact day-to-day weather we experience. As the Gippsland region of Victoria <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/05/victoria-floods-flooding-warnings-gippsland-region-flood-and-fires-evacuation">saw in October</a>, heavy rainfall can still occur during an El Niño. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Map of Australia showing the difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, with a large wet patch around Gippsland, Victoria." /></a><figcaption>Difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, showing defined wet area around Gippsland, Victoria surrounded by drier conditions. The Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> Climate drivers are like a football coach. They can select the best players and develop ingenious strategies, but that doesn’t guarantee a win every time. Players can get injured on the field or simply have a bad game. These uncontrollable factors are challenging to predict and may change the result from what we would expect. Scientists call this stochasticity. The climate drivers are the football coach, but the day-to-day weather systems are the players. The Bureau of Meteorology <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">releases an update</a> on all of these drivers every two weeks. The update explains which drivers are currently active and the forecast for the next few weeks. So, if you are wondering why the weather is cooler during summer, or it’s raining in the middle of the dry season, perhaps take a look at which driver is steering Australia’s weather at the moment.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218257/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kimberley-reid-767059">Kimberley Reid</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

Extreme weather is landing more Australians in hospital – and heat is the biggest culprit

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-peden-1136424">Amy Peden</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Hospital admissions for injuries directly attributable to extreme weather events – such as heatwaves, bushfires and storms – have increased in Australia over the past decade. A new <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/injury/extreme-weather-injuries/contents/about">report</a> from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) shows 9,119 Australians were hospitalised for injuries from extreme weather from 2012-22 and 677 people died from these injuries in the decade up to 2021. In 2021-22, there were 754 injury hospitalisations directly related to extreme weather, compared to 576 in 2011-12. Extreme heat is responsible for most weather-related injuries. Exposure to prolonged natural heat can result in physical conditions ranging from mild heat stroke, to organ damage and <a href="https://www.dea.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/DEA-Fact-Sheet_HeatwavesWEB.pdf">death</a>. As Australia heads into summer with an El Niño, it’s important understand and prepare for the health risks associated with extreme weather. <h2>A spike every three years</h2> Extreme weather-related hospitalisations have spiked at more than 1,000 cases every three years, with the spikes becoming progressively higher. There were: <ul> <li>1,027 injury hospitalisations in 2013–14</li> <li>1,033 in 2016–17</li> <li>1,108 in 2019–20.</li> </ul> <iframe id="vLaas" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/vLaas/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> In each of these three years, extreme heat had the biggest impact on hospital admissions and deaths. <iframe id="P03sm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/P03sm/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> Extreme heat accounted for 7,104 injury hospitalisations (78% of all injury hospitalisations) and 293 deaths (43% of all injury deaths) in the ten year period analysed. In 2011-12, there were 354 injury hospitalisations directly related to extreme heat. This rose to 579 by 2021-22. <h2>El Niño and La Niña</h2> Over the past three decades, extreme weather events have increased in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/">frequency</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">severity</a>. In Australia, El Niño drives a period of reduced rainfall, warmer temperatures and increased bushfire danger. La Niña, on the other hand, is associated with above average rainfall, cooler daytime temperatures and increased chance of tropical cyclones and flood events. Although similar numbers of heatwave-related hospitalisations occurred in El Niño and La Niña years studied, the number of injuries related to bushfires was higher in El Niño years. During the 2019–20 bushfires, in the week beginning January 5 2020, there were 1,100 more hospitalisations than the previous five-year average, an 11% increase. Although El Niño hasn’t directly been proved as the cause for these three spikes, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, two of the three years (2016-17 and 2019-20) were El Niño summers. And the other year (2013-14) was the warmest neutral year on record at that time. <h2>Regional differences</h2> Exposure to excessive natural heat was the most common cause leading to injury hospitalisation for all the mainland states and territories. From 2019 to 2022, there were 2,143 hospital admissions related to extreme heat, including: <ul> <li>717 patients from Queensland</li> <li>410 from Victoria</li> <li>348 from NSW</li> <li>267 from South Australia</li> <li>266 from Western Australia</li> <li>73 from the Northern Territory</li> <li>23 from the ACT</li> <li>19 from Tasmania.</li> </ul> <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556987/original/file-20231101-27-3c98xm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption><a class="source" href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports-data/latest-reports">AIHW National Hospital Morbidity Database</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> The report also includes state and territory data on hospitalisations related to extreme cold and storms. During the ten-year period analysed, there were 773 injury hospitalisations and 242 deaths related to extreme cold. Extreme rain or storms accounted for 348 injury hospitalisations and 77 deaths. From 2019 to 2022, there were 191 hospitalisations related to extreme cold, with Victoria recording the highest number (51, compared to 40 in next-placed NSW). During the same period there were 111 hospitalisations related to rain and storms, with 52 occurring in NSW and 28 in Queensland. <h2>What about for bushfires?</h2> Over the ten-year period studied, there were 894 hospitalisations and 65 deaths related to bushfires. Bushfire-related injury hospitalisations and deaths peaked in 2019–20, an El Niño year with 174 hospitalisations and 35 deaths. The two most common injuries that result from bushfires are smoke inhalation and burns. During the 2019–20 bushfires, in the week beginning 5 January 2020 there were 1,100 more respiratory hospitalisations than the previous five-year average, an 11% increase. The greatest increase in the hospitalisation rate for burns was 30% in the week beginning December 15 2019 — 0.8 per 100,000 persons (about 210 hospitalisations), compared with the previous 5-year average of 0.6 per 100,000 (an average of 155 hospitalisations). <h2>Some people are particularly vulnerable</h2> Anyone can be affected by extreme weather-related injuries but some population groups are more at risk than others. This includes older people, children, people with disabilities, those with pre-existing or chronic health conditions, outdoor workers, and those with greater <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/813">socioeconomic disadvantage</a>. People in these groups may have reduced capacity to avoid or reduce the health impacts of extreme weather conditions, for example older people taking medication may be less able to regulate their body temperature. “Thermal inequity” includes people living in poor quality housing who have difficulty accessing adequate heating and cooling. For heat-related injuries between 2019–20 and 2021–22, people aged 65 and over were the most commonly admitted to hospital, followed by people aged 25–44. Across age groups, men had higher numbers of heat related injury hospitalisations than women. This difference was most notable among those aged 25-44 and 45-64 years, where over twice as many men were hospitalised due to extreme heat as women. <h2>We still don’t have a full picture</h2> The AIHW data only includes injuries which were serious enough for patients to be admitted to hospital; it doesn’t include cases where patients treated in an emergency department and sent home without being admitted. It includes injuries that were directly attributable to weather-related events but does not include injuries that were indirectly related. For example, it doesn’t include injuries from road traffic accidents that occur due to wet weather, since the primary cause of injury would be recorded as “transport”. Improved surveillance of weather-related injuries could help the health system and the community better prepare for responding to extreme weather conditions. For example, better data aids communities in predicting what resources will be needed during periods of extreme weather. A more complete picture of injuries during weather events could also be used to inform people of actions they can take to protect their own health. Given a predicted hot summer, this could be a matter of life or death. This article was co-authored by Sarah Ahmed and Heather Swanston from the Injuries and System Surveillance Unit at the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216440/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-peden-1136424">Amy Peden</a>, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-is-landing-more-australians-in-hospital-and-heat-is-the-biggest-culprit-216440">original article</a>.

Caring

"It was beautiful": Rare rainbow cloud stuns small farming town

The locals of a small farming town in Western Australia have been delighted with the sighting of a rare rainbow cloud. The colourful weather phenomenon appeared above the town of Goomalling, about 130km northwest of Perth in Western Australia, on Tuesday morning. Jenni Shaw was at her family-owned business when she got a text from a friend instructing her to look up at the sky. "We all went out the front and had a look and there was some bright, rainbow-type clouds in the sky that we hadn't seen before," she told <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-24/rainbow-cloud-iridescence-irisation-delights-wheatbelt-community/103016928" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABC</a>. “It was beautiful,” she said. “But we were a bit like ‘why is that like that? Should we still be outside looking or not?’” <iframe style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Flang.lefroy.7%2Fposts%2Fpfbid02h2HTyVYSVda8NkewrireTWPS4P6wKTnuJxhBWfkNhbxGn3QzHweELRNFQczM8GsPl&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="645" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> Ms Shaw said the rainbow-coloured cloud was visible for just a few minutes. "It was not there long, just long enough for us all to get some photos," she said. <p class="paragraph_paragraph__3Hrfa" style="font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 1rem; font-family: abcsans, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, sans-serif;">Jessica Lingard from the Bureau of Meteorology said rainbow clouds, known as cloud iridescence, form in the same way as rainbows - when sunlight diffracts off water or ice crystals in the sky. "It's quite a rare phenomenon to catch in person," she said. "It's the perfect storm of conditions: the sun's at the right angle, the clouds are not too thin and not too thick that they're being blocked out, and the sunlight has just created this spectacle of coloured light." <div data-component="EmphasisedText"> "It's an absolutely stunning photo." </div> Lucky local residents said it wasn’t the first time they’d seen the special clouds in the area. “I have seen clouds like this a few times in my travels, mostly in the Wheatbelt,” Jill Lefroy wrote on Facebook. “Pretty awesome seeing a rainbow with no rain!” Image credits: Facebook

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