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Just 15 centimetres of water can float a car – but we are failing to educate drivers about the dangers of floodwaters

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-peden-1136424">Amy Peden</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kyra-hamilton-331594">Kyra Hamilton</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Every year in Australia, people driving into floodwaters drown and many more are <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/disaster-tabs-header/flood/">rescued</a>. Do you know what to do when there’s water on the road? We searched all state and territory learner and driver handbooks for information about floodwaters, including signage. Our findings, published in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437524000860?via%3Dihub">Journal of Safety Research</a>, are disturbing. Across half of Australia’s states and territories, the driver handbook ignores flooding. That’s a missed opportunity, considering the handbook contains road rules and provides advice on how to navigate safely. While some states fail to provide any flood-related information, others give detailed practical guidance. Only the New South Wales handbook includes explanation of the meaning and purpose of flood signage. This is despite almost all states and territories experiencing vehicle-related flood <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12616">deaths</a>, including <a href="https://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/causal-pathways-of-flood-related-river-drowning-deaths-in-australia/">drowning</a>, between 2001 and 2017. It’s a major problem that is only going to get worse as the climate changes. So our research shows driver education needs to come up to speed, fast. <h2>Why do people drive into floodwaters?</h2> Our previous <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420918301869">research</a> revealed motorists can feel compelled to drive into floodwaters for a range of reasons. These include time pressures such as being late for work or school, or needing to get home to family or pets. Sometimes they feel pressured by their passengers, or motorists behind them on the road, urging them to cross. People also report having been encouraged or instructed as learners to drive into floodwaters. Past experience as a passenger also influences a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1369847823000475">learner driver’s</a> future willingness to drive into floodwaters. So the views of significant others, such as their supervising driver, strongly influence decisions around driving into floodwaters. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZtlXpDBjU1Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Avoid driving into floodwaters, for life’s sake.</figcaption></figure> <h2>What we did and what we found</h2> We assessed all publicly available, government-issued learner and driver handbooks (12 documents) across all six Australian states and two territories. We also looked for flood-related signage. We used a method for reviewing online material through a systematic search including in-document key words and imagery. Four jurisdictions provided no information on flooding in the handbook. In the ACT, South Australia, Tasmania and Victoria, drivers need to look elsewhere for information on floodwaters and driving safety. Only one jurisdiction provided information on flood signage such as depth markers and “road subject to flooding”. Hats off to the <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2022-11/Road-User-Handbook-English.pdf">NSW Road User Handbook</a>, which warns: <blockquote> Floodwater is extremely dangerous. Find another way or wait until the road is clear. It’s safer to turn around than to drive in floodwater. </blockquote> For the states and territories that did provide information on floodwaters in the handbook, the content varied. NSW, Queensland and the Northern Territory warned against entering floodwaters in a vehicle. They highlighted the dangers and financial penalties associated with driving on closed roads. In the NT and Western Australia, handbooks provided practical information on when and how to cross floodwaters safely, such as how to gauge safe water depth based on vehicle size, and to avoid fast-flowing water. Although well-intentioned, judgements around what constitutes fast-flowing water are subjective and hard for any driver to assess, let alone learner drivers. Even drivers of larger vehicles such as four-wheel drives are regularly involved in flood-related <a href="https://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/causal-pathways-of-flood-related-river-drowning-deaths-in-australia/">vehicle drowning fatalities</a>. Just <a href="https://www.ses.vic.gov.au/news-and-media/campaigns/15-to-float">45cm</a> of water can float a large 4WD, and considerably less for smaller vehicles. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t4ilUbMXZAQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>A small car can float in just 15cm of water.</figcaption></figure> Handbooks represent valuable sources of safety information, particularly for new drivers who must learn important road rules to progress from one licence to another. Such graduated driver licensing schemes reduce road traffic injury, particularly among <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022437523000385">young people</a>. However, many of these handbooks fail to provide consistent, practical evidence-based information about flooding. There is an opportunity here to support safer driving behaviours. <h2>Safety tips for all drivers</h2> We encourage drivers to follow these safety tips: <ul> <li>avoid driving into floodwaters</li> <li>identify alternative routes, so you have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-roads-become-rivers-forming-a-plan-b-can-stop-people-driving-into-floodwaters-183036">plan B</a></li> <li>familiarise yourself, and any learner drivers in the household or under your care, with the meaning and purpose of flood signage</li> <li>understand the legal consequences of crossing a road closed sign</li> <li>discuss the dangers of driving into floodwaters with learner drivers and help them formulate their own plan B</li> <li>model safe driving for all passengers, including children.</li> </ul> <h2>Time to lift our game</h2> Driving into floodwaters remains the main cause of <a href="https://currents.plos.org/disasters/article/causal-pathways-of-flood-related-river-drowning-deaths-in-australia/">flood-related drowning</a> in Australia. For our emergency service personnel, driver behaviour, including people ignoring road closed signs, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hpja.181">significantly complicates</a> the already dangerous act of performing a flood rescue. Extreme weather and flooding are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future. That means the chance of being faced with a flooded road is growing. So information about driving during floods is vital for all, from the newly licensed to the experienced driver. We hope our research will encourage all states and territories to include provide practical, evidence-based advice on floods in driver handbooks as soon as possible.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233116/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amy-peden-1136424">Amy Peden</a>, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kyra-hamilton-331594">Kyra Hamilton</a>, Associate Professor in Applied Psychology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/griffith-university-828">Griffith University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-15-centimetres-of-water-can-float-a-car-but-we-are-failing-to-educate-drivers-about-the-dangers-of-floodwaters-233116">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Man's hilariously Aussie response to rising flood water

An Australian man has gone viral for his laid back response to flood waters rising around him, as Queensland continues to be ravaged by Cyclone Jasper. Gavin Dear, a man from the flood-stricken town of Helensvale, and two of his friends took off in his boat to help stranded locals who were displaced from the floods. While filming their rescue mission, the men came across Jonesy, a grey-haired shirtless man who was clinging to a gate as flood waters raced around him. In a clip shared to Facebook, a voice from behind the camera asked, "Jonesy, are you all right?" "Yeah mate. All good," Jonesy responded casually before raising concerns about others in danger nearby. When the men assured Jonesy his neighbours were safe, they asked him again if he needed assistance, to which he said, "Yeah nah mate, bloody fine." <iframe style="border: none; overflow: hidden;" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?height=476&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F10NewsQLD%2Fvideos%2F1334777510741703%2F&show_text=false&width=380&t=0" width="380" height="476" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> Hundreds of social media users flocked to the comments section to express their praise for the Aussie larrikin. "There's no possible way this could be any more Far North Queensland," one said. "I think that was the most Australian moment since the first ever utterance of G'day," another wrote. "Surrounded by utter chaos, waist deep in flood water, chopper evac in the background, worried about the other blokes and a dog and saying 'yeah, I'm all good'." Others were quick to label the man "a bloody legend" for worrying about his community despite being half underwater himself. Image credits: Facebook

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Aussies brave flood waters for a drink at the pub

A group of flood-stricken Queenslanders are braving the aftermath of the devastating Cyclone Jasper, and risking it all to head out to their local pub. On the banks of the Tully River, 155km south of Cairns, locals flocked to the Hotel Euramo to wait out the storm, with everyone arriving by boat. Instead of the carpark being full of cars, 18 tinnies brought thirsty locals to their watering hole, in what has become a tradition for when the area is impacted by floods. Hotel owner Ollie Muzic told ABC News Breakfast on Monday that it was a local tradition for patrons to turn up at the by either boat or tractor when the town was flooded. "We had no tractors turn up yesterday, but the water level was higher than it ever was before," she said. "Everyone was very high-spirited. We are lucky our water disperses very quickly." Hotel manager Tish Ottone said patrons made the best of the bad situation, and did what they could do enjoy their day at the pub. "It was really good, the atmosphere was amazing," she said. "It was definitely on my bucket list (to arrive by boat) and it is ticked off now so it was surreal, it was pretty cool." Six people stayed at the pu8b overnight on Sunday and Ms Muzic said she and staff would be on the premises until waters recede, providing what they could to locals who need help. "The majority of people who are here say they got everything sorted yesterday morning before coming here, everything high and dry and there’s pretty well nothing much you can do except sit around until the water drops down," she said. Although the atmosphere at the pub was festive, Ms Muzic said she was mindful of those in more catastrophic conditions in Queensland, as Cyclone Jasper continues to wreak havoc. "We do understand there are a lot of places in north Queensland absolutely devastated by these floods," she said. "Our hearts go to everybody in Cairns and the surrounding areas who have lost their homes and roads." "Hopefully our government gets in to fix everything up as quick as possible, it’s the week of Christmas." Image credits: Facebook

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Jock Zonfrillo's daughter receives flood of love over emotional video

Jock Zonfrillo's eldest daughter, Ava, has received an outpouring of love after she shared an emotional TikTok of her late father. “I never thought I’d lose you at 22,” she captioned the post. “Life is unfair. I miss you dad," she added, with a series of photos and videos of moments she shared with her father. She used a popular TikTok sound with sombre music and Zendaya's Euphoria character Rue, who also lost her father expressing her sadness. “I miss you dad. I miss you when I close my eyes,” her character said through tears. At the end of the video, Ava put a video of her dad and younger brother Alfie, sending her a message. “We love you Ava, we miss you,” the late chef said. “Miss you,” Alfie sweetly echoed. “Say ‘I love you Ava’,” Zonfrillo told Alfie, who copied his dad. “Aw your big sister, where is she?” he added. <div><iframe title="tiktok embed" src="https://cdn.embedly.com/widgets/media.html?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tiktok.com%2Fembed%2Fv2%2F7264800785194700039&display_name=tiktok&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tiktok.com%2F%40avazonfrillo%2Fvideo%2F7264800785194700039%3Flang%3Den&image=https%3A%2F%2Fp16-sign-sg.tiktokcdn.com%2Fobj%2Ftos-alisg-p-0037%2Fb279df6fd76b4f4fb3b61e4df86af24a_1691468249%3Fx-expires%3D1691647200%26x-signature%3Dkjt1j9OWCHSdvm1v6xMj7dBCdFk%253D&key=5b465a7e134d4f09b4e6901220de11f0&type=text%2Fhtml&schema=tiktok" width="340" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></div> The video has since racked up almost 900,000 views with thousands of fans sharing their love and support. “Oh sweetheart, it’s so cruel and unfair that you had to lose him so young. You’re going to live an amazing life that would make him proud xoxox,” commented one person. “This is heartbreaking,” wrote another. "I am SO sorry for your loss beautiful girl. As someone who looked up to your dad, hearing about his death absolutely broke me. You are so strong gorgeous," wrote a third. "Oh my sweet girl, my heart breaks for you. He is with you always. Meet him in the garden of your dreams," commented another. The post comes just two months after she <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/lifestyle/family-pets/jock-zonfrillo-s-daughter-pays-tribute-to-her-late-father" target="_blank" rel="noopener">paid tribute</a> to her late dad. Images: TikTok

Family & Pets

Floods, cyclones, thunderstorms: is climate change to blame for New Zealand’s summer of extreme weather?

The final months of New Zealand’s summer carried a massive sting, bringing “unprecedented” rainfalls several times over, from widespread flooding in Auckland at the end of January to ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle dumping record rains and causing devastating floods across the east coast of the North Island. After all that, New Zealand experienced spells of thunderstorms, bringing repeat floods to parts of Auckland and then Gisborne. The obvious question is what role climate change plays in these record-breaking rainfalls. Some answers come from the international <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/">World Weather Attribution</a> team, which today released a <a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/102624/10/Scientific%20report%20New%20Zealand%20Floods.pdf">rapid assessment</a> which shows very heavy rain, like that associated with Cyclone Gabrielle, has become about four times more common in the region and extreme downpours now drop 30% more rain. The team analysed weather data from several stations, which show the observed increase in heavy rain. It then used computer models to compare the climate as it is today, after about 1.2℃ of global warming since the late 1800s, with the climate of the past. The small size of the analysed region meant the team could not quantify the extent to which human-caused warming is responsible for the observed increase in heavy rain in this part of New Zealand, but concluded it was the likely cause. <h2>More energy in the atmosphere and ocean</h2> Many factors add to the strength of a storm and the intensity of rainfall, especially for short bursts. A crucial factor is always the amount of energy available. Climate change is increasing that amount of energy in two main ways. First, everything is getting warmer. Rising sea surface temperatures provide <a href="https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/reviews/ScienceBrief_Review_CYCLONES_Mar2021.pdf">extra fuel for the development of tropical cyclones</a> because they grow by heating from below. Warmer seas mean potentially faster development of tropical cyclones, and stronger, more vigorous storms overall. Sea temperatures must be at least 26.5℃ to support the build-up of a tropical cyclone. So, as the oceans warm, these storms can reach farther from the equator. Second, warmer air can hold more water vapour. Every degree of warming increases the maximum amount of water vapour by around 7%. That extra water vapour tends to fall out as extra rain, but it also provides extra energy to a storm. <h2>Driving waves further inland</h2> The energy it takes to evaporate the water from the ocean surface and turn it into vapour is released again when the vapour condenses back into liquid water. A moister airmass heats the atmosphere more when clouds and rain form, making the air more buoyant and able to rise up more. This creates deeper, more vigorous clouds with stronger updrafts, and again more rain. Stronger updrafts in a storm mean more air will have to be drawn into the storm near the Earth’s surface, ensuring more “convergence” of air and moisture (water vapour). That’s why, even though a degree of warming translates to 7% more water vapour in the air, we can get 20% increases, or larger, in extreme rainfalls. All of this extra energy can contribute to making the storm stronger overall, with stronger winds and lower air pressures in its centre. This seems to have happened with Cyclone Gabrielle. Record low pressures were recorded at a few North Island locations as the storm passed. The low pressures act like a vacuum cleaner, sucking the sea surface up above normal sea level. The strong winds can then drive waves much further inland. Add in a bit of sea-level rise, and coastal inundation can get a lot worse a lot quicker. As the climate continues to change, storm intensity is likely to increase on average, as sea levels continue to rise. Those effects together are bound to lead to more dramatic coastal erosion and inundation. <h2>Thunderstorms riding warming seas</h2> These processes work for thunderstorms as well. A thunder cloud often starts as a buoyant mass of air over a warm surface. As the air rises (or convects), it cools and forces water vapour to condense back to liquid water, releasing heat and increasing the buoyancy and speed of the rising air. Again, that allows more moist air to be drawn into the cloud, and that convergence of moist air can increase rainfall amounts well above the 7% per degree of warming, for short bursts of very intense convection. The more intense the convection, the stronger the convergence of moisture and the heavier the resulting rainfall. Tropical cyclones have rings of thunderstorms around their eye during the time when they are truly tropical storms. As they transition out of the tropics into our neighbourhood, they change their structure but retain a lot of the moisture and buoyancy of the air. An ex-tropical cyclone like Gabrielle, moving over very warm water, can pack a devastating punch. Why has New Zealand had so much of this very heavy rain during the weeks from late January? Partly it’s the very warm ocean waters around Aotearoa (up to marine heatwave conditions) and farther north into the Coral Sea. That itself is partly related to the ongoing La Niña event in the tropical Pacific, which tends to pile up warm water (and tropical cyclones) in the west. But it is also related to ongoing global warming. As sea temperatures increase, it becomes easier to reach heatwave conditions. Warmer seas load the atmosphere with water vapour. Partly, too, the air over the North Island has been unusually “unstable” lately, very warm near ground level but cooler than normal higher up. That makes the buoyance in thunderstorms work even better and more strongly, encouraging very heavy rainfall. These conditions seem to have eased now, but severe thunderstorms continue to develop. As we move from summer into autumn, as the warmest seas move eastwards away from us and as La Niña fades in the tropics, the chances of a repeat event are diminishing. For now at least. But if we continue to warm the climate with more greenhouse gas emissions, we will continue to load the dice towards more very heavy rain over Aotearoa. Let us hope those regions and communities so badly affected by recent events have a chance to dry out, rebuild and recover before the next extreme weather. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-cyclones-thunderstorms-is-climate-change-to-blame-for-new-zealands-summer-of-extreme-weather-201161" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Images: Getty

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What Australia learned from recent devastating floods – and how New Zealand can apply those lessons now

Australia and New Zealand have both faced a series of devastating floods triggered by climate change and the return of the <a href="https://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/historic-3rd-la-nina-is-back-but-it-barely-left-us-in-the-first-place">La Niña weather pattern</a>. So it makes sense that Australia has now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-17/australia-sends-disaster-crew-to-nz-death-toll-rises/101989822">sent disaster crews</a> to help with the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle. With <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2343938-eastern-australia-is-battling-fifth-major-wave-of-floods-in-19-months/">five serious floods</a> in the space of 19 months in 2021-2022, Australia’s experiences – and how people responded – offer New Zealand a guide for recovering and rebuilding after an extreme weather event. The flooding events in both countries share two key common elements. First, the floods broke previous records and were the largest in recent history. Second, there were also repeat flood events. In Auckland, there were <a href="https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/residents-evacuated-homes-roads-flooded-again">two massive floods within five days</a>, while Cyclone Gabrielle became the Coromandel’s <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/484167/cyclone-gabrielle-thames-coromandel-already-facing-fifth-severe-weather-event-of-year">fifth severe weather event</a> for 2023 and devastated other parts of the North Island. The other common factor is urbanisation. <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/auckland-population-may-hit-2-million-in-early-2030s">Auckland’s population has been growing</a>, resulting in the increasing development of the built environment. Intensifying urban development places pressure on existing drainage systems – parts of which are no longer fit for purpose. Extensive built-up and paved areas with hard, impermeable surfaces can also cause rapid run-off during heavy rain, with the water unable to be absorbed into the ground as it would be in <a href="https://theconversation.com/auckland-floods-even-stormwater-reform-wont-be-enough-we-need-a-sponge-city-to-avoid-future-disasters-198736">soft, vegetated areas</a>. <h2>Working with the community</h2> Our <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7En6dA-N3MA">recent research</a> in the Hunter Valley in Australia – one of the areas affected by those five successive floods – identified similar factors contributing to the flooding events, including a <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-06/Hunter%20REDS.pdf">rapidly growing regional population</a>. Two of our research sites – the Cessnock and Singleton local government areas – had growing urban centres that reflected a similar development trajectory to Auckland, albeit in a smaller scale. Our research in the Hunter Valley established the importance of identifying existing community resilience and gaps. We also observed the need to involve the community at all levels. This included having early warning systems and evacuation protocols in place to improve community access to information and warnings. The State Emergency Services (SES) is the main agency in New South Wales responsible for flood response and management. Supported by community volunteers, the SES has a clear focus at the local level. This community focus is evident with its “door-knocking kit”, which is based on a community-level vulnerability assessment. The SES has a list of those in the community who are most at risk, such as the elderly and people with disabilities. When a flood risk becomes evident, SES volunteers go knocking on doors to check their preparedness and provide evacuation support. The equivalent of SES in New Zealand, Auckland Emergency Management, could learn from this community-based approach and include it within its <a href="https://getready.govt.nz/en/involved/community/">Community Group Support</a> initiative, so that future disaster responses can be more closely tailored to the community. In the recent floods in Auckland, communication was an issue. Relaying directives and information through multiple institutional layers <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/some-incorrect-decisions-auckland-mayor-under-fire-over-deadly-floods-20230130-p5cggt.html">led to confusion</a>, which could have been avoided through a closer community-based approach. <h2>Building a volunteer army</h2> Another key factor in Australia is the large cadre of SES volunteers – around <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/about-us/">9,000 in New South Wales</a>, a state with a population of just over eight million. This is a significant form of social capital, without which the current approach to flood response and management would not be possible. While there are initiatives in New Zealand to <a href="https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/get-ready/volunteering/">attract and engage volunteers</a>, more needs to be done. Civil defence needs to conduct a structural review of the existing volunteer organisations that work in the disaster and emergency response field to identify ways to improve the recruitment and retention. We also found evidence of volunteer “burn-out”, meaning there’s a need to support volunteers emotionally and financially during extended periods of disaster response and recovery. While there is a large number of SES volunteers in Australia, more are needed as climate change drives more frequent, extensive and intense disasters. Given the similar nature of repeat climate-related disaster events in New Zealand, provisions for a large cadre of well-supported and well-trained volunteers is necessary. A review of existing volunteer agencies and community organisations should be undertaken to identify ways they can be harmonised to avoid competing pressures for resources. As well, there’s a need to nurture collaboration between agencies to help with sharing skills, training, data and resource management. <h2>The need for resilience</h2> Perhaps the key lesson for New Zealand, and also Australia, is the need to think beyond emergency management to building long-term resilience within agencies and communities. As climate-related disasters become more common, we need to think about how our cities grow and how we can incorporate flood resilience by retaining green areas and vegetation, improved drainage and transportation links. But both countries also need to focus on being ready for a disaster, instead of managing it after it happens. In doing so, the pressures of managing the disaster when it arrives would be less – and so would the long-term impacts on people and the economy. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-australia-learned-from-recent-devastating-floods-and-how-new-zealand-can-apply-those-lessons-now-200078" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

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From floods to fire? A climate scientist on the chances El Niño will hit Australia this year

After three soggy years of La Niña in a row, Australia has endured record-breaking floods, the latest of which has inundated <a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">the Kimberley</a> in Western Australia and across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-17/qld-weather-system-brings-rainfall-floodwaters-chance-of-cyclone/101859094">north and central Queensland</a>. While the rains may have initially been a relief after the heat, drought and fires that came before, they have long outstayed their welcome. Thankfully, the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview">latest update</a> from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) points to a continuing weakening of La Niña – but it also points to the possibility of El Niño emerging by the autumn. You can think of El Niño as being like the opposite of La Niña. While La Niña is known for bringing cooler, rainy weather, El Niño brings hot, dry conditions. This means it’s often associated with drought, heatwaves and bushfires. The world’s hottest year on record in 2016 was an El Niño year. Let’s take a closer look at BOM’s forecast and what Australians can expect in the coming months. <h2>The difference between El Niño, La Niña and climate change</h2> La Niña and El Niño events are “climate drivers”, which means they are part of the natural oscillations of the Earth’s climate. Human-caused climate change, on the other hand, acts over a longer term, steadily bringing up the planet’s average temperature and exacerbating some of the impacts of La Niña and El Niño events. La Niña is characterised by cooler waters than normal in the tropical eastern Pacific near Peru and Ecuador and warmer waters in the west Pacific including around northern Australia. When we have La Niña we have an increased chance of wet conditions over northern and eastern Australia, especially in spring. The past three years with consecutive La Niña events have followed this pattern. In contrast, El Niño is associated with warmer waters over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and cooler waters in the west. El Niño conditions bring an increased chance of warmer and drier conditions in Australia. For now we have a dissipating La Niña, and there is strong confidence it will continue to weaken over the coming weeks. We expect it to be properly finished by the end of summer. <h2>The likelihood of El Niño forming</h2> As we look further ahead, our confidence in what will happen next reduces. BOM’s outlook suggests El Niño conditions could arrive by late autumn, but other <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">forecast models</a> point to a lower chance of El Niño emerging at all. Forecasts of El Niño are challenging several months in advance, but particularly at this time of year when they have to overcome the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-03/autumn-climate-reset-clouding-forecasters-crystal-balls/100043614">autumn predictability barrier</a>”. In autumn, there is less variation in the Pacific Ocean’s temperature and it’s harder to forecast if an El Niño or La Niña will emerge by winter. We are by no means guaranteed a switch to El Niño, but there is a higher probability of an El Niño forming in the next few months than we’ve seen for several years. Australia is also affected by other natural climate drivers, such as the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml">Indian Ocean Dipole</a>, which has a strong effect on winter weather. This climate driver is brought about by interactions between ocean currents and the atmosphere, and influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean, including Australia. It’s currently forecast to move into a “positive phase” by early winter, which would favour a drier winter over most of Australia as well <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Indian-Ocean">but this is also still uncertain</a>. <h2>From floods to drought?</h2> With indications of a shift to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, should we expect to swing from floods to drought? <a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">Drought occurs on different timescales</a>, but Australia’s most devastating droughts, which result in major agricultural losses and water restrictions, require several years of dry conditions. With our dams full, it’s unlikely we’ll see a major drought form for a while. If we have an extended period without La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, then drought may <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans-132188">start to appear again</a>. However, the drier weather would also raise the risks of other hazards such as heatwaves and bushfires. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00065-8">horror 2019-2020 fire season</a> came off the back of a weak El Niño and a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Indeed, Australia’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a032.shtml">hottest summer on record</a> was during the El Niño of 2018-2019. This time, our three consecutive La Niña events have resulted in more vegetation growth. This means next summer, there will be more fuel for fires to burn. <h2>New heights for global temperatures</h2> El Niño doesn’t just affect Australia. For example, during El Niño events we typically see a weaker Indian monsoon and drier conditions over southern Africa. East Africa, which has suffered greatly <a href="https://theconversation.com/famine-should-not-exist-in-2022-yet-somalia-faces-its-worst-yet-wealthy-countries-pay-your-dues-191952">from drought</a> in recent times, is usually wetter during El Niño. As El Niño events involve the warming of a large area of the Pacific Ocean they tend to raise the global average surface temperature by about one-tenth of a degree. While that might not sound like very much, it could push the global average surface temperature to record-breaking highs, particularly in the year after an El Niño forms. Given the planet is rapidly warming due to our continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, and the fact we haven’t had a big El Niño for a while, even a moderate El Niño could mean the world experiences a new record hot year. There is even the possibility the global average temperature <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354672-strong-el-nino-could-make-2024-the-first-year-we-pass-1-5c-of-warming/">could surpass 1.5℃</a> above pre-industrial levels for the first time. While we’re aiming to keep global warming under 1.5℃ to meet the Paris Agreement, an individual year above this mark does not mean we have failed. Still, it’s not a good sign if we start to hit that mark. <h2>Is climate change altering El Niño?</h2> It’s not yet clear exactly how climate change may be altering El Niño. However, there are indications climate change may be moving El Niño events <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560">towards the central Pacific</a> nearer the international dateline. Climate change could also possibly strengthen rainfall responses to El Niño and La Niña over the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12580">Pacific</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL097511">elsewhere</a>. This may worsen both our floods and droughts in Australia, but more research is needed. Unfortunately, in terms of global temperatures and Australian heatwaves, it’s clear the combination of human-caused climate change and a major El Niño event increases the likelihood of record-breaking events. An El Niño may not be a welcome a reprieve from the past few soggy years. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-floods-to-fire-a-climate-scientist-on-the-chances-el-nino-will-hit-australia-this-year-197408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Travel Trouble

Aussie toddler's heart-breaking reaction to father's death

The father-in-law of a man who died in NSW floodwaters has opened up about the devastating toll their loss has had on his 19-month-old son. “My gorgeous grandson keeps asking for his dad,” Simon Moujalli wrote on a <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/sarah-and-little-isaiah" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" data-ylk="slk:GoFundMe page" data-rapid_p="9" data-v9y="1">GoFundMe page</a> set up to raise money for Ghosn’s widow and toddler, “and waits for him to have breakfast with him as he always did, and sing and dance together before he headed off to work.” Mr Ghosn and fellow Sydney father Bob Chahine died when their ute was swept off a flooded causeway in the Southern Tablelands on Monday night. It’s believed both men were riding in the back tray of the vehicle, while another two men in the ute’s cab managed to escape and swim to safety before raising the alarm for help. A large-scale search operation was launched to find the pair at Bevendale, about 50 kilometres east of Boorowa. Two bodies have since been found, and while they are yet to be formally identified, NSW Police say they believe they belong to the two missing men. “There are no words to describe the hell my daughter Sarah is living at the moment,” Mr Ghosn’s father-in-law wrote online. “Having lost her soul mate, her true love, the father of their little toddler and her whole world. My daughter’s heart is crushed.” Mr Moujalli went on to explain that he was “asking for help” for his daughter and beautiful grandson, Isaiah. “My son-in-law, God rest his soul, will never see his little boy grow up and my daughter Sarah is left broken and a widow at such a young age.” He added that he was setting up the fundraising page to “help Sarah with the long road ahead of her. To help ease the financial burden of raising a child as a single mother and help with bills until she is able to move on, and to give her time to mend her broken heart". Image credits: GoFundMe

Family & Pets

Floods, pandemics, wars and market forces: what’s driving up the price of milk

At the end of 2021, the cost of a litre of home-brand milk in an Australian supermarket <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-11-25/dairy-farmers-welcome-woolworths-milk-price-lift/100650118" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was about $1.30</a>. It’s now about $1.60. What will it cost at the end of 2022? That depends on the continued effect of flooding on prime dairy-production regions in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, as well as on global economic conditions. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science has projected <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a 28% increase</a> in the farm-gate milk price in 2022-23 – to 72.5 cents per litre, a record high. With less milk being produced, it could be even more. <hr /> Australia’s dairy regions <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490779/original/file-20221020-19-64n8np.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/surveys/dairy#financial-performance" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ABARES</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CC BY-NC-ND</a></figcaption></figure> <hr /> It’s a case of higher demand and lower supply. Production has been declining since 2014. In the first half of 2022, ABARES says milk production was about 7% lower than the same period in 2021: <blockquote> This was driven by extreme weather events: a drier than average start of the year in southern Victoria and northwest Tasmania, flooding in regions of Queensland and northern New South Wales. Also, with export prices for Australian dairy products increasing substantially at the start of 2022, less milk was available to the domestic market. </blockquote> Obviously, things aren’t all rosy. Some dairy farmers face the devastation of natural disasters. All face the same post-COVID challenges as other primary producers. Russia’s war on Ukraine has help drive up <a href="https://www.austrade.gov.au/news/insights/insight-farm-food-costs-rise-due-to-higher-energy-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener">costs of inputs</a>, from fertilisers to <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/data/weekly-commodity-price-update/australian-agricultural-prices" target="_blank" rel="noopener">feed</a>. Labour is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/australia-needs-workers-million-are-stuck-door-2022-08-31" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hard to find</a>. But for all that, the record high farm-gate price is good news for an industry where the number of farmers has declined by a quarter in the past decade (from <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=b16a172f-6300-4ee0-918a-b235cf9da725">about 7,500</a> in 2011 to <a href="https://www.dairy.com.au/our-industry-and-people/our-regions">about 5,700</a> now). Deregulation stirs the pot Until 2000, farm-gate milk prices were regulated. State and territory governments set minimum farm-gate prices that maintained farmer income. This was abandoned in July 2000. With deregulation, farmers, processors and supermarkets were set free to negotiate prices. In economic theory, free trade works fine when you have a large number of buyers and sellers, all with the same amount of information about what is happening in the market. But in the milk industry, thousands of producers sell to a handful of milk processors, who then sell to even fewer retailers. The major supermarkets control almost <a href="https://milkvalue.com.au/australian-dairy-market/sales-trends/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">60% of total milk sales</a>. This is not always such a problem. It is not often you hear fresh producers screaming at supermarkets, in what is a very similar arrangement. But with the dairy industry, as noted in a <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/review-report-dairy-industry-code.docx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2021 report</a> from the Department of Agriculture, Waters and the Environment, there is a “perceived market failure”. Why? It has to do with how supermarkets have used their power. Waging the milk price war To give time for the market to find an equilibrium, the Howard government introduced a “Dairy Adjustment Levy” of 11 cents per litre to support farmers through deregulation. This levy remained in place until 2008, when it was abolished by the Rudd government. Then, in 2011, the “milk war” broke out. Coles had the idea of luring shoppers from Woolworths by selling milk <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/milk-wars-leave-sour-taste-in-farmers-mouths-20120120-1q9st.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">at $1 a litre</a>. Woolworths responded. Aldi joined the move. And the war kept prices artificially low for almost a decade. Supermarkets put the squeeze on processors, who had little option but to accept what was offered for crucial supermarket contracts. Processors then put the squeeze on farmers. <hr /> <iframe id="5TukM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5TukM/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> Many decided the effort was not worth it, and quit farming. Milk production peaked in 2014 then declined. Supermarkets finally abandoned $1/litre milk in 2019, under considerable public and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-23/milk-wars-whats-at-the-heart-of-dairys-battles/10838390" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political pressure</a> to acknowledge that, after eight years with no increase, some rebalancing was needed. During this time, overseas demand for dairy products has also been increasing, especially in Asia. Now <a href="https://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/westvic-dairy/industry-statistics/industry-reports/australian-dairy-industry-in-focus#.YzA0_nZByM9" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 32%</a> of Australian dairy production is exported – not as fresh milk, but as cheese, butter and other dairy products. (It takes about 10 litres of milk to make <a href="https://www.dairysafe.vic.gov.au/consumers/dairy-foods/cheese" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1 kilogram of cheese</a>, and 20 litres to make <a href="https://www.dairysafe.vic.gov.au/consumers/dairy-foods/butter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1kg of butter</a>.) On top of that, lately US and European dairy farmers have had a hard time <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy#milk-production-to-increase-but-export-volumes-to-fall" target="_blank" rel="noopener">with drought</a>, increasing international prices. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s Dairy Price Index increased by more <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/cc1189en/cc1189en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">than 17%</a> from 2020 to 2021, and is expected to rise another 15% by the end of this year. <hr /> Australian milk production and farm-gate price <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/486429/original/file-20220926-15788-17niif.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /><figcaption><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/images/ac-sept-2022-dairy-fig-1-2.png">ABARES; Dairy Australia</a></figcaption></figure> <hr /> The projected 28% rise in farm-gate milk prices in 2022-23 will bring the value of the Australian dairy production to a record <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/dairy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$6.2 billion</a>. Which is good news for the long term sustainability of dairy farming in Australia. You might not appreciate it, but to keep dairy farmers in business, a fair price must be payed for your fresh milk. <img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191064/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />Writen by Flavio Macau. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-pandemics-wars-and-market-forces-whats-driving-up-the-price-of-milk-191064" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Getty Images

Money & Banking

Want to lend a hand to flood victims? Here are five ways you can help

As Aussies begin the lengthy process of cleaning up and recovering following the recent floods in Victoria and NSW, many of us watching on will want to lend a helping hand. Whether you are hoping to volunteer your time or donate, there are plenty of ways to pitch in to help, including these five. Donate money Donating money is usually the most effective way to help, with the Community Enterprise Foundation, <a href="https://www.bendigobank.com.au/media-centre/victoria-flood-appeal-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bendigo Bank</a>’s charitable arm, calling for donations for flood victims which will be passed on to local charitable areas. You can also make financial donations to flood appeals that have been started by charities, including the <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Red Cross</a>, <a href="https://www.vinnies.org.au/page/Find_Help/Flood_appeal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">St Vincent de Paul</a>, <a href="https://www.salvationarmy.org.au/donate/make-a-donation/donate-online/?appeal=2022floodappealhp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Salvation Army</a>, <a href="https://foodbank.raisely.com/helpnswfloodvictims" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Food Bank NSW</a>, and <a href="https://events.ozharvest.org/flexischools-ozharvest?utm_campaign=flexi_schools&utm_medium=edm&utm_source=email" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OzHarvest Victoria</a>. The Victorian Farmers Federation has also started a <a href="https://www.vff.org.au/donations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Disaster Relief Fund</a> to assist farmers affected by floods, with donations able to be taken over the phone on 1800 882 833 or by mailing through a cheque. Volunteer with SES If you want to get your hands dirty, you can apply to be a volunteer with the State Emergency Service (SES) in NSW or a regular volunteer with SES Victoria. As a spontaneous volunteer, members of the community can assist NSW SES during emergencies in a range of ways without a long-term commitment. These can include helping people prepare for flooding, answering phones and providing administrative support, clearing debris, or in a logistical role providing support to crews in the field, among others. By becoming a volunteer with SES Victoria, you can assist with emergency response to storms and floods and other duties. Unlike being a spontaneous volunteer, joining as a regular volunteer is a longer-term commitment. To find out more about volunteering with SES NSW or Victoria, head <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/spontaneousvolunteering" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> or <a href="https://www.ses.vic.gov.au/join-us" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Lend a hand how you can with Emergency Support Volunteering or Blaze Aid Whether you’re handy with tools or are happy to provide social support, there’s a way you can help as a volunteer with Emergency Support Volunteering in NSW. After signing up and nominating how you want to help, the organisation passes your details to verified organisations near you. To sign up or find out more, head <a href="https://emergency.volunteer.org.au/volunteer-registration/4/nsw-floods#register" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. For Victorians looking to volunteer, <a href="https://blazeaid.com.au/donations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blaze Aid</a> is currently recruiting and assembling teams of volunteers in central Victoria. The organisation will be setting up camps from next week. Donate clothes and essentials With many victims losing their possessions, donating clothes and household items can also be a big help. <a href="https://www.givit.org.au/storms-and-flooding" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GIVIT</a>, a crowd-sourced website, is open to donations of clothing, furniture, money for fuel, and vouchers for other essentials, with 11,000 items that are needed being listed. Donations of food, emergency housing and clothing can also be made through St Vincent de Paul, either as one-off or ongoing donations. Fundraise If you want to set up a fundraiser or appeal to help victims, the best way to do it is through an existing charity, which can be found through the <a href="https://www.acnc.gov.au/charity/charities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ACNC</a>, <a href="https://www.fairtrading.nsw.gov.au/charitable-fundraising/fundraising-for-a-disaster" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Service NSW</a>, or <a href="https://registers.consumer.vic.gov.au/frsearch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Consumer Affairs Victoria</a> websites. According to Fairtrading NSW, if you are allowed to fundraise on behalf of an authorised fundraiser, such as a charity, you won’t need to get approval. If you decide to raise funds through crowdfunding, such as using websites such as GoFundMe, you may need to apply for an authority to raise money. Image: Getty Images

Caring

Thousands of dollars now available for flood victims

The victims of recent flooding events in Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania are now eligible for financial support from the federal government. Thousands of dollars in support will include ongoing payments for eligible Aussies who have lost income as a result of the floods, paid at the same rate as JobSeeker. “The disaster recovery allowance is a payment that’s currently being made across all 71 LGAs (local government areas) ... for a total of up to 13 weeks,” Services Australia General Manager Hank Jongen told Sunrise. “It’s to help people that have lost work or income as a direct result of the floods, regardless of whether you’re an employer, sole trader or an employee.” <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Financial support is now available for people affected by flooding in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. Claim online through <a href="https://twitter.com/myGovau?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@myGovau</a> or call our Emergency information line on 180 22 66. Read more: <a href="https://t.co/JZxDScPQsJ">https://t.co/JZxDScPQsJ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSWFloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSWFloods</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VicFloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VicFloods</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TasFloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TasFloods</a> <a href="https://t.co/oF1ZEnpT40">pic.twitter.com/oF1ZEnpT40</a> — Services Australia (@ServicesGovAU) <a href="https://twitter.com/ServicesGovAU/status/1581867612853899264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 17, 2022</a></blockquote> Mr Jongen explained that those already on JobSeeker weren’t eligible for the allowance, which is available on top of a one-off sum of $1000 for adults and $400 per child to help those seriously affected by the floods. But, fewer Local Government Areas (LGAs) qualify for the lump sum along with the allowance, with eligible LGAs being determined by the National Emergency Management Agency. “This is an ever-changing situation and the National Emergency Management Agency is constantly monitoring, and it works with other government agencies in order to make these declarations,” Mr Jongen explained. The national support comes after <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/finance/money-banking/monetary-help-confirmed-for-victoria-s-flood-victims" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced assistance</a> would be available for victims of the floods which inundated the state since last Friday. To determine whether you are eligible for financial assistance from the federal government, head <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/natural-disaster-events?context=60042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Image: Getty Images

Money & Banking

Floods in Victoria are uncommon. Here’s why they’re happening now – and how they compare to the past

Think Victoria and disasters and you’ll think bushfires. But floods can hit – just not as often. Today is one of those days, with much of the state under a flood watch. Premier Dan Andrews says the floods are likely to be the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-13/nsw-victoria-tasmania-wet-weather-flooding-rainfall-live-updates/101530310?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=twitter&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most significant</a> in years. Evacuations are likely. Floodwaters are pushing down the Goulburn to the Murray. Major flooding in the Maribyrnong, which runs through towns and Melbourne’s west. Emergency services say evacuations may be necessary. Towns are sandbagging flood-prone areas. Some have been cut off by rising waters. The state’s largest dam, Dartmouth, is spilling over. So is Lake Eildon’s dam. And the Thomson dam may well spill this weekend, for the first time in decades. This isn’t the last of it – Victoria’s emergency management commissioner Andrew Crisp has warned intense rains and floods could last up to <a href="https://www.3aw.com.au/in-this-for-a-while-emergency-management-commissioners-warning-to-victorians/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">six to eight weeks</a>. Even as the rest of the eastern seaboard has faced the brunt of three consecutive La Niña years, Victoria has had little flooding until now. Tasmania, too, is facing rare flooding, while flood-weary New South Wales is bracing for more. These heavy rains are unusual. Dense cloud bands have crossed the desert, carrying moisture evaporating from seas off north-west Australia. Rain has fallen across almost the entire continent in the last two weeks. Our rain events are usually regional – <a href="https://theconversation.com/on-our-wettest-days-stormclouds-can-dump-30-trillion-litres-of-water-across-australia-191949" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not national</a>. <h2>Why doesn’t Victoria have as many floods?</h2> Victoria’s claim to fame in disasters is that it’s the most <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/we-have-still-not-lived-long-enough/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bushfire-prone region</a> in the world (followed by California and Greece). Fire risk also comes from climate. Victoria’s temperate climate means dry summers and less rain than its northern counterparts – around 520 millimetres of rain a year falls on average in Melbourne, compared to 1175mm a year in Sydney and 1149mm in Brisbane. Up north, rain tends to fall intensely, whereas Victoria’s rain tends to fall more as drizzle. What’s different this time? September was wetter and colder <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/vic/summary.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">than usual</a> in Victoria, which meant the ground was already saturated in many areas. Colder weather means less water evaporates. Together, that made the state primed for floods. For a flood to happen, you need a high rate of run-off, where rain hits saturated soils and flows overland rather than sinking in, as well as intense rains in a short period. Victoria is more familiar with flash floods. That’s because the stormwater drains in cities and towns can be overwhelmed by sudden dumps of rain, flooding streets. The good news is this flooding is usually over quickly, in contrast to the flooded rivers we see up north. This situation may be different. With the state’s major dams beyond capacity or very close to it, water is already spilling over. Dams in Australia are often dual-purpose, storing drinking water and allowing us some control over floods. While Brisbane’s dams are designed with gates to permit floodwater release, Victoria’s dams tend to just have dam walls. When dams overflow, they can add to floods in low-lying areas downstream. There’s also usually a lag time in riverine floods, as it takes hours or sometimes days for rain falling in the headwaters to end up as floodwater downstream. <h2>What floods has Victoria seen before?</h2> The largest was in 1934. More than 140mm of rain fell over two days in Melbourne, and more than double that in Gippsland. The <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/10998182" target="_blank" rel="noopener">enormous flood</a> that followed was most devastating in Melbourne, where the Yarra <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/flood-melbourne-and-victoria-1934/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">broke its banks</a> and formed a lake from the city out to the outer suburbs. Thirty-six people died, and thousands of people were left homeless. Floods in the capital and in the regions are <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/a-brief-history-of-victorian-floods-20171202-gzxcem.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rare but not unknown</a>. In 1891, floods forced more than 3,000 people from their homes in Richmond, Collingwood and Prahran. In 1909, western Victorian rivers broke their banks, flooding many towns and causing four deaths. The <a href="https://www.floodvictoria.vic.gov.au/learn-about-flooding/flood-history/post-2000-floods" target="_blank" rel="noopener">most recent</a> big floods took place during the previous La Niña cycle from 2010-2012, with western Victoria taking the brunt of the damage. Flooding in Victoria has also reduced because people have shifted the course of rivers – particularly the Yarra. In 1879, 2,000 workers began a monster task: removing an entire loop of the Yarra west of the Docklands. One reason? Straight rivers flow faster, meaning floodwaters can discharge more quickly. Engineer John Coode was responsible for designing the new course for the Yarra, which also had the benefit of a wide new channel to improve access for ships. In the process, his workers created what’s now known as Coode Island. In 1896, Victoria’s Parliament passed the <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/vic/hist_act/yia1896218/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yarra Improvement Act</a> in a bid to reduce the damage caused by floods. Workers widened and deepened the river, and removed billabongs near the Botanic Gardens in the process. In the 1930s, engineers built another channel through an old quarry leading to the creation of Herring Island. These changes were mainly about improving navigation for ships – but they had the double benefit of reducing flooding in the lower reaches. In part, it was about British ideals of what rivers should look like, using highly modified rivers like London’s Thames as a guide. <h2>What’s next?</h2> Changing the course of rivers, raising dams and building levees can make us feel like we’re in control. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-come-clean-on-lismores-future-people-and-businesses-have-to-relocate-away-from-the-floodplains-184636" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lismore’s residents found</a>. Flood control measures can actually make the impact of <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-stop-risky-developments-in-floodplains-we-have-to-tackle-the-profit-motive-and-our-false-sense-of-security-184062" target="_blank" rel="noopener">large floods worse</a> by giving us a false sense of security about living on floodplains. This is unlikely to be the last flood before La Niña finally relents. It’s worth knowing your state’s history of disasters – so you can be better prepared. After all, we can’t control nature. This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-victoria-are-uncommon-heres-why-theyre-happening-now-and-how-they-compare-to-the-past-192391" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. Image: Twitter

Travel Trouble

Monetary help confirmed for Victoria’s flood victims

After wild weather drenched Victoria and flooded about 500 homes, Premier Daniel Andrews has announced that financial support will be available to those affected. On Friday morning, the Maribyrnong River burst its banks and made inner Melbourne the latest community caught up in the state’s flooding emergency. Mr Andrews announced the payments would be available to help those affected “to help with food, shelter, clothing and medication”. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Emergency payments are available for people whose homes have been impacted by flooding to help with food, shelter, clothing and medication. You can apply online at <a href="https://t.co/K0Dqh4hS9T">https://t.co/K0Dqh4hS9T</a> — Dan Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanielAndrewsMP/status/1580683791332700160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 13, 2022</a></blockquote> Record-breaking rain has seen waterway levels rapidly rise, with residents in the areas surrounding the Maribyrnong River being urged to evacuate earlier this morning. "Some are waking up to find floodwater right at their door," 3AW's Pat Mitchell told Today. "I have spoken to some people getting their cars out, moving things to higher ground before they leave. Really, they haven't had a lot of time." Senior meteorologist Dean Narramore at the Bureau of Meteorology said people in north-west Melbourne could expect “major flooding” as the morning progressed. "We're expecting the flood peak to occur later this morning into later this afternoon, into the upper reaches of the Maribyrnong River then to the more populated areas to the west of Melbourne into this afternoon and into this evening," he said. "Thankfully the rain has eased, so we're expecting it to peak into tonight and start easing quickly into tomorrow." Tim Wiebusch, the chief operations officer of Victoria SES, said Maribyrnong residents could expect the flood threat to remain for the next 24 to 28 hours, and that there was flooding “pretty much right across the state”. "But we've also got the Yarra river with all our bike paths, all our recreation reserves that are now underwater at minor flooding," he said. "So people need to be aware that our rivers are in flood pretty much right across the state now." Residents in Wedderburn, Carisbrook, Seymour, Benalla and Rochester have been urged to evacuate, while some along the Seven Creeks and Goulburn and Campaspe rivers were told to head to higher ground. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> currently stuck in seymour whilst en route from melbourne to albury. <a href="https://twitter.com/VLine?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VLine</a> coaches ‘promised’ to meet us here after boarding at broadmeadows non-existent. big love to the staff here at seymour station, doing the best they can with no info in this wild weather 💕 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/vicfloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#vicfloods</a> <a href="https://t.co/x0aVqWObsw">pic.twitter.com/x0aVqWObsw</a> — Madeleine Sargent (@madeleinecate) <a href="https://twitter.com/madeleinecate/status/1580460924015898624?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 13, 2022</a></blockquote> SES Emergency Management Commissioner Andrew Crisp said that despite the rising water levels, they are hoping that they will quickly lower again. The water has already started to recede in Seymour, but some residents still saw their homes taken over by water. "I just came to have a look, and my house is just down that street, so I would say that it's gone underwater," one woman told Today. "Pretty sad to look at. Pretty devastating, because I'm a single mum and got my mum, I look after my mum as well, so, yeah, we just got my daughter and my mum out." Mr Narramore said flood levels were to ease later today in Seymour and Euroa, but that water levels won’t reach their peak in Rochester and Charlton until Saturday morning. "Some major flooding expected (at Rochester) tonight and especially into tomorrow," he said. "They're expecting major flooding into Saturday, slowly easing Sunday but hopefully by Sunday night dropping out of those levels. But there's so much water in the systems at the moment." Any who stay in Rochester past this afternoon could face being stranded until Wednesday next week, with floodwaters expected to surpass top levels experienced in 2011 and cut off roads entering the community. For those who need to access the government’s emergency payments, an online application can be filled out <a href="https://emergencypayments.dffh.vic.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. Image: Nine

Money & Banking

Young boy who drowned in flood waters identified

The young boy who drowned in flood waters in rural New South Wales has been identified as five-year-old Jayden El Jer. The family of five from Sydney had taken a trip to Dubbo Zoo on Friday 23 and were heading back to their holiday home at Tullamore when tragedy struck and they got stuck in flood waters. Jayden’s parents Joseph El Jer and Pam Hadchity and two younger siblings, baby Bachir and three-year-old daughter Valentina, were able to scramble out of the submerged Hilux ute to safety. Unfortunately, five-year-old Jayden remained trapped inside as his desperate family called out to him before the ute sank. Emergency services found the ute around 3.20pm the following day with Jayden’s body still inside. A report will be prepared for the coroner with Jayden being remembered as a "bright, bubbly boy". His mother Pam had shared photos of their trip to the zoo just hours before the horrific accident. Jayden was only in kindergarten at Christ the King Primary School in North Rocks, Sydney. “I am writing to share some very sad news with you. Over the weekend, one of our Kindergarten students Jayden lost his life in an accident caused by flooding in Central West NSW,” the school’s principal Tony Hughes said in a statement. “Our entire community will be deeply affected by this tragic loss of our friend and classmate, Jayden. Jayden joined our caring community at the beginning of 2022. “This is a very distressing time for Jayden’s family, for his classmates and for our staff. For many students, the news of Jayden’s death will bring with it a range of strong feelings.” Mr Hughes said that there will be additional support and counselling offered to students as they come to terms with the loss of their fellow classmate. “It is important that we give our young people the opportunity to talk about what they are experiencing and to support them to feel safe and heard,” he continued. “I have arranged for additional counselling to be available at school once students return on October 11. “There will be an opportunity soon for our caring community to reach out and offer kindness and support to Jayden’s family. I will provide you with more information when it is appropriate to do so.” Images: Facebook

News

Historic flooding submerges third of Pakistan

A third of Pakistan is underwater as a result of historic flooding, the country’s climate minister has confirmed. Flash flooding has seen roads, homes and crops get washed away across Pakistan, which Sherry Rehman has called a “crisis of unimaginable proportions”. “It’s all one big ocean, there’s no dry land to pump the water out,” Ms Rehman said. According to officials, at least 1136 people have died since the start of the monsoon season in June, with the summer rain being the heaviest recorded in a decade. The Pakistani government has declared a state of emergency and is blaming climate change for the record-breaking downpour. “Literally, one-third of Pakistan is underwater right now, which has exceeded every boundary, every norm we’ve seen in the past,” Ms Rehman told the AFP news agency. “We’ve never seen anything like this.” Of those who have died, officials said on Monday that 75 people were killed in the previous 24 hours alone and that they expect the death toll to continue rising. Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, told the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62712301" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BBC</a> that a third of those who have died are believed to be children. “We are still coming to grips with the extent of the damage,” he said. It’s estimated that 33 million - or one in seven - Pakistanis have been affected by the floods, with entire villages in the country’s northern Swat Valley being cut off after bridges and roads were swept away. Thousands of people in the area have been ordered to evacuate, but authorities are still struggling to reach residents even with the help of helicopters. “Village after village has been wiped out. Millions of houses have been destroyed,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Sunday after flying over the area. For those who have escaped to safer areas, they have been crowded into makeshift camps across the country. Fazal Malik, a flood victim currently staying in a school that was being used to house 2500 evacuees in the north-western Kyber Pakhtunkhwa province, said the living conditions were “miserable”. “Our self-respect is at stake,” Malik said. This year’s flooding has been compared to the floods that devastated Pakistan in 2010, which were the deadliest in the country’s history and killed more than 2000 people. With growing concerns about the cost of rebuilding following the disaster, Pakistan’s government has appealed for financial assistance from aid agencies, friendly countries and international donors. "A very early, preliminary estimate is that it is big, it is higher than $10 billion ($AUD 14.43 billion)," Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal told Reuters. Mr Iqbal added that almost half of the country’s cotton crops had been washed away, while fields growing vegetables, fruit and rice had been significantly damaged. “Our crop spanned over 5,000 acres on which the best quality rice what sown and is eaten by you and us,” 70-year-old rice farmer Khalil Ahmed, whose fields in the south-eastern city of Sukkur were devastated by the floods, told the AFP. “All that is finished.” Image: Getty Images

International Travel

Family hit with parking fine during floods

A family who moved their car to save it from rising floodwaters has been slapped with a $283 fine from the local council. On July 6, as the floods in the New South Wales region turned roads into torrents of water, Amber Evans and her husband were among many faced with their homes and belongings being inundated. With their backyard completely flooded, her husband moved their car to higher ground. “It was like two inches from coming inside the house,” Evans told <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/nsw-cessnock-family-receive-parking-fine-from-council-during-flood-disaster/64eaf84b-3205-48a4-b832-7cb08e4e6fdb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9news.com.au</a>. “We didn’t feel safe moving our car back into the gutter as it was full of water, the driveway was full of water.” Though they were still under a flood warning, the couple received a $283 fine from Cessnock City Council the following day for illegally parking on the median strip. “Any other day of the week I could understand but we were parked there to save our car from being flooded,” Evans said. On top of their backyard being underwater, the septic tank was also submerged - meaning the toilets couldn’t be used - and their children had been evacuated to their grandparents’ house. “My seven-year-old was at his grandmother’s home crying about whether he was going to come back to a house,” Evans said. “I found it’s stressful enough going through flooding, even though we were lucky for (floodwaters) not to go inside, without needing to add on the next day the rangers are out fining us for having our cars parked safely. “It’s very disheartening to see Cessnock City Council fining residents for saving their possessions.” In a statement, the council said fines were issued to cars “illegally parked in areas that had been, but were no longer, subject to flooding”. “The ranger who issued the tickets was unaware that the street had flooded the previous day as there was no evidence such as floodwater, flood debris or road closed signage,” the statement read. “Council has written to Revenue NSW advising it would support a caution being issued instead of a fine.” However, Evans said reducing the fine to a caution wasn’t enough and called for the council to apologise to residents who were fined. “It is still a mark on my husband’s licence, in return, that can affect his job,” she said. "It's not about getting the fine taken away, it is the fact this shouldn't be happening. "During a flood event, a natural disaster, it wasn't the time to be out fining people whose cars were on higher ground." Ian Olsen, one of the councillors for Cessnock, said the fines made the council look like “fools” and undermined the support the council was trying to provide for flood victims. “It is a bad look for council to be fining people during the floods,” he said. "Why the ranger went down there and did that, I don't understand. It's bad enough having your house flood." He defended Evans and her family, adding that their car wasn’t parked in a dangerous position and describing rangers as a “power to themselves”. "Our rangers need to be more lenient, just allow residents to be able to keep their cars safe," he said. Images: 9News

Legal

‘Patently ridiculous’: State government failures have exacerbated Sydney’s flood disaster

For the fourth time in 18 months, floodwaters have inundated homes and businesses in Western Sydney’s Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley. Recent torrential rain is obviously the immediate cause. But poor decisions by successive New South Wales governments have exacerbated the damage. The town of Windsor, in the Hawkesbury region, has suffered a particularly high toll, with dramatic flood heights of 9.3 metres in February 2020, 12.9m in March 2021 and 13.7m in March this year. As I write, flood heights at Windsor have reached nearly 14m. This is still considerably lower than the monster flood of 1867, which reached almost 20m. It’s clear that standard flood risk reduction measures, such as raising building floor levels, are not safe enough in this valley. We’ve known about the risk of floods to the region for a long time. Yet successive state governments have failed to properly mitigate its impact. Indeed, recent urban development policies by the current NSW government will multiply the risk. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> BBC weather putting Sydney’s downpour into context. More rain there in 4 days than London gets in a year. <a href="https://t.co/FDkBCYGlK7">pic.twitter.com/FDkBCYGlK7</a> — Brett Mcleod (@Brett_McLeod) <a href="https://twitter.com/Brett_McLeod/status/1544071890431623169?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 4, 2022</a></blockquote> We knew this was coming A 22,000 square kilometre catchment covering the Blue Mountains and Western Sydney drains into the Hawkesbury-Nepean river system. The system faces an <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-disastrous-flood-wasnt-unprecedented-were-about-to-enter-a-50-year-period-of-frequent-major-floods-158427" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme flood risk</a> because gorges restrict the river’s seaward flow, often causing water to rapidly fill up the valley after heavy rain. Governments have known about the flood risks in the valley for more than two centuries. Traditional Owners have known about them for millennia. In 1817, Governor Macquarie lamented: <blockquote> it is impossible not to feel extremely displeased and Indignant at [colonists] Infatuated Obstinacy in persisting to Continue to reside with their Families, Flocks, Herds, and Grain on those Spots Subject to the Floods, and from whence they have often had their prosperity swept away. </blockquote> Macquarie’s was the first in a long line of governments to do nothing effective to reduce the risk. The latest in this undistinguished chain is the NSW Planning Minister Anthony Roberts. In March, Roberts <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-planning-minister-scraps-order-to-consider-flood-fire-risks-before-building-20220321-p5a6kc.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly revoked</a> his predecessor’s directive to better consider flood and other climate risks in planning decisions, to instead favour housing development. Roberts’ predecessor, Rob Stokes, had required that the Department of Planning, local governments and developers consult Traditional Owners, manage risks from climate change, and make information public on the risks of natural disasters. This could have helped limit development on floodplains. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> Michael Greenway knows that as soon as he sees floodwater, it’s time to get the three boxes of family photos and move to higher ground. He’s lived in his Richards home for years and has experienced six floods - three of which have been this year <a href="https://t.co/t8Tgckc5lx">https://t.co/t8Tgckc5lx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSWFloods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSWFloods</a> <a href="https://t.co/ErN6sf6hBn">pic.twitter.com/ErN6sf6hBn</a> — Laura Chung (@Laura_R_Chung) <a href="https://twitter.com/Laura_R_Chung/status/1543890156675276800?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 4, 2022</a></blockquote> Why are we still building there? The Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley is currently home to 134,000 people, a population <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">projected to</a> double by 2050. The potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-stop-risky-developments-in-floodplains-we-have-to-tackle-the-profit-motive-and-our-false-sense-of-security-184062?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=bylinetwitterbutton" target="_blank" rel="noopener">economic returns</a> from property development are a key driver of the <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/26393302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of effective action</a> to reduce flood risk. In the valley, for example, billionaire Kerry Stokes’ company Seven Group is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-raising-the-warragamba-dam-wall-could-be-a-win-for-billionaire-kerry-stokes-20220222-p59yke.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly a part owner</a> of almost 2,000 hectares at Penrith Lakes by the Nepean River, where a 5,000-home development has been mooted. Planning in Australia often uses the 1-in-100-year flood return interval as a safety standard. <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/living-floods-key-lessons-australia-and-abroad/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is not appropriate</a>. Flood risk in the valley is increasing with climate change, and development in the catchment increases the speed of runoff from paved surfaces. The historical 1-in-100 year safety standard is particularly inappropriate in the valley, because of the extreme risk of rising water cutting off low-lying roads and completely submerging residents cut-off in extreme floods. What’s more, a “medium” climate change scenario will see a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/resources/publications-and-resources/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14.6% increase</a> in rainfall by 2090 west of Sydney. This is projected to increase the 1-in-100 year flood height at Windsor from 17.3m to 18.4m. The NSW government should impose a much higher standard of flood safety before approving new residential development. In my view, it would be prudent to only allow development that could withstand the 20m height of the 1867 flood. No dam can control the biggest floods The NSW government’s primary proposal to reduce flood risk is to <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/expert-advice/hawkesbury-nepean-flood-risk-management-strategy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raise Warragamba Dam</a> by 14m. There are many reasons this <a href="https://www.giveadam.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal should be questioned</a>. They include the potential inundation not just of <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/traditional-owners-launch-federal-bid-to-stop-raising-of-warragamba-dam-wall-20210128-p56xkt.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cultural sites</a> of the Gundungarra nation, but threatened species populations, and part of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area. The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/media/2855/infrastructure-nsw-resilient-valley-resilient-communities-2017-jan.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost-benefit analysis</a> used to justify the proposal <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-submission-details.aspx?pk=65507" target="_blank" rel="noopener">did not count</a> these costs, nor the benefits of alternative measures such as upgrading escape roads. Perversely, flood control dams and levee banks often result in higher flood risks. That’s because none of these structures stop the biggest floods, and they provide an illusion of safety that justifies more risky floodplain development. The current NSW transport minister <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/emergency-minister-says-raising-dam-wall-could-lead-to-more-development-on-floodplain-20210329-p57evo.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggested such development</a> in the valley last year. Similar development occurred with the construction of the Wivenhoe Dam in 1984, which hasn’t prevented extensive flooding in <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/26393302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Brisbane</a> in 2011 and 2022. These are among the reasons the NSW Parliament Select Committee on the Proposal to Raise the Warragamba Dam Wall <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/listofcommittees/Pages/committee-details.aspx?pk=262#tab-reportsandgovernmentresponses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recommended</a> last October that the state government: <blockquote> not proceed with the Warragamba Dam wall raising project [and] pursue alternative floodplain management strategies instead. </blockquote> What the government should do instead The NSW government now has an opportunity to overcome two centuries of failed governance. It could take substantial measures to keep homes off the floodplain and out of harm’s way. We need major <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-submission-details.aspx?pk=65507" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new measures</a> including: <ul> <li>preventing new development</li> <li>relocating flood prone residents</li> <li>building better evacuation roads</li> <li>lowering the water storage level behind Warragamba Dam.</li> </ul> The NSW government should help residents to relocate from the most flood-prone places and restore floodplains. This has been undertaken for many Australian towns and cities, such as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000028" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grantham</a>, Brisbane, and <a href="https://nccarf.edu.au/living-floods-key-lessons-australia-and-abroad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">along major rivers worldwide</a>. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/5/4/1580/htm#B10-water-05-01580" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Relocating residents isn’t easy</a>, and any current Australian buyback and relocation programs are voluntary. I think it’s in the public interest to go further and, for example, compulsorily acquire or relocate those with destroyed homes, rather than allowing them to rebuild in harm’s way. This approach offers certainty for flood-hit people and lowers community impacts in the longer term. It is patently ridiculous to rebuild on sites that have been flooded multiple times in two years. In the case of the Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, there are at least <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/federal-government-insurers-stop-housing-in-floodrisk-zones/news-story/cba71269eff2b0ea00d93445ff0e9f73" target="_blank" rel="noopener">5,000 homes</a> below the 1-in-100-year flood return interval. This includes roughly <a href="https://www.hawkesburygazette.com.au/story/7657492/near-1000-flood-related-home-insurance-claims-already-in-hawkesbury/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1,000 homes flooded</a> in March. The NSW government says a buyback program would be <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/farcical-minister-shoots-down-flood-relocation-says-residents-know-the-risks-20220308-p5a2qg.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">too expensive</a>. Yet, the cost would be comparable to the roughly $2 billion needed to raise Warragamba Dam, or the government’s $5 billion WestInvest fund. An alternative measure to raising the dam is to lower the water storage level in Warragamba Dam by 12m. This would reduce the amount of drinking water stored to supply Sydney, and would provide some flood control space. The city’s water supply would then need to rely more on the existing desalination plant, a <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116001817" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategy assessed as cost effective</a> and with the added benefit of bolstering drought resilience. The flood damage seen in NSW this week was entirely predictable. Measures that could significantly lower flood risk are expensive and politically hard. But as flood risks worsen with climate change, they’re well worth it.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186304/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jamie-pittock-7562" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jamie Pittock</a>, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/australian-national-university-877" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Australian National University</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/patently-ridiculous-state-government-failures-have-exacerbated-sydneys-flood-disaster-186304" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original article</a>.

Legal

“Several of these floods happened on your watch”: Nat Barr slams Liberal Party deputy leader

Sunrise host Natalie Barr has called out Liberal MP Sussan Ley for claiming the Labor government was too slow in their handling of the NSW floods. The Liberal Party deputy leader appeared alongside Labor's Minister for Education Jason Clare on Sunrise on Friday July 8 who were discussing raising the walls of Warragamba Dam to stop future flooding. Ms Barr got the ball rolling, asking Ms Ley why nothing was done when her government was in power. “Sussan what do you think? Because several of these floods happened on your watch and nothing seemed to go ahead did it?” she asked. “It’s heartbreaking to hear from those people who are so affected when they feel yet another flood event,” Ms Ley began before she was cut off by Ms Barr. “Hang on Sussan, the first flood, the big one, was in March last year, then we had March this year, April this year, with all due respect, what did your government do?” Ms Barr questioned. “We worked closely and started a planning process at federal environment level that I was actually involved with. At the moment, the issue is with the NSW Government but a lot of work has been done by the Commonwealth,” Ms Ley said. “Now, this incoming government seems to not know how to pick up that work and continue with it. And that’s my point, at least start with the right minister. It’s waiting there and it needs [NSW]..., but at least start in the right area of the government to get this ball running.” “Nat, I think Sussan’s got a short memory here. Go back to the start of the year, we had a tinny army that rescued people,” Mr Clare said of Morrison’s Government response to the March floods. “People had to hire their own helicopters because rescue services weren't on the way. “We were proactive. We got helicopters ready and soldiers ready before we were even asked.” Ms Ley however then questioned why the government took too long to announce relief payments for the affected areas. “On Monday I raised the issue that payments that could have been made in hours were taking days,” she said. “The floods were on the weekend. It wasn't until Thursday that a signature on a paper was made, coincidentally when the Prime Minister came back from overseas.” Ms Barr snapped at Ms Ley saying: “Well, it may have been a couple of days but it's burnt into our memory that people had to go rescue themselves and their communities.” The residents in the 23 LGAs affected by the severe storms and flooding since June 27, are eligible for disaster relief payments funded by the NSW government and the Commonwealth. The LGAs include Blacktown, Blue Mountains, Camden, Canterbury Bankstown, Campbelltown, Central Coast, Cessnock, Fairfield, Georges River, Hawkesbury, Hornsby, Kiama, Lithgow, Liverpool, Northern Beaches, Penrith, Shellharbour, Shoalhaven, Sutherland, The Hills, Wingecarribee, Wollondilly and Wollongong. Images: Sunrise

Elderly resident rescued from a potentially fatal flooding incident

A 72-year-old woman has been rescued from her car with only moments to spare after she was swept off the road and trapped in neck-deep flood water during an extreme weather event. Police responded to the elderly woman's triple zero call around 2:30 pm on Wednesday the 6th of July, after a flooded rural crossing in Collombatti, north of Kempsey on the NSW mid-north coast, swept her car downstream and wedged it in a line of trees. In the panicked call she said she was trapped inside the car with water up to her chest. A sergeant from Mid North Coast Police District used a 4WD winch cable as a safety line before entering the floodwater to find the vehicle. The officer, with the help of five other police, opened the woman's car door as water began to reach her neck, this incident could've been fatal. It is believed she was trapped in the car for about 45 minutes. She was then taken to the Kempsey Hospital where she was treated for hypothermia and exhaustion. The officers were not injured during the incident and the command is considering recommending all officers to be recognised for their efforts. About 60,000 people are still feeling the threat of widespread flooding in the Sydney, Hunter and mid-north coast regions following a week-long rain event. Image: NSW Police

News

Two police officers hailed as heroes after saving man from flood waters

Two brave police officers are being hailed as heroes after risking their lives in neck-deep water to save a man trapped in a sinking ute. Constables Lindsay Morgan and Ryan Blume-Poulton both miraculously managed to pull the man from the submerged vehicle in rapidly rising flood waters in South Windsor on the outskirts of Sydney. The dramatic rescue was sparked by an emergency call from a witness who saw the ute in trouble and noticed a 'flicker' in the window, which he quickly realised was a person. “He said he only had six inches between the water rising and the roof and due to his age and the pressure against the car door, he couldn't get it open,” according to Probationary Constables Lindsay Morgan. Footage shows the officers frantically trying to crack the window open. However, after eight attempts to break the window with both rocks and their batons failed, one officer noticed the door was slightly cracked just enough for them to get their fingertips in and wench it open. The officers said the water was so high at points they had to swim and found themselves hitting fences completely submerged they couldn't see. "You just don't know what is under the water, crossing fences you couldn't even see... at one point we were swimming across a lake," Probationary Constable Ryan Blume-Poulton said. “We needed to get to him, that's what we are there for, that's what we signed up for, he needed us and there was no one else,” an officer said. The man who called in the emergency said if it wasn't for the brave officers the man would have been lost. The rescue comes as Sydney's and large parts of NSW have suffered immense storms with an astonishing weekend of rain. Authorities have warned the floodwaters will take up to a week to recede even if the rain eases. The Hawkesbury River at Windsor reached major flood levels for the third time within months, peaking at 14m on Tuesday morning - above the 13.8m level recorded in March. Image: Nine News

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