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"I’m saying that hands down": Matt Shirvo's bold prediction

<p>Matt Shirvington has made an enormous call about the future career of 16-year-old sprinter known as Gout Gout, saying he could be one of Australia's greatest athletes. </p> <p>The Brisbane teenager shot to <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/lifestyle/family-pets/i-don-t-want-my-son-to-be-called-a-disease-name-gout-gout-s-dad-weighs-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fame</a> over the weekend after blitzing the 200m track record, completing the race in just 20.04 seconds. </p> <p>The <em>Sunrise</em> host and former Olympic runner heaped praise on the lightning-fast teen, claiming “he will be the greatest athlete we have ever produced in this country”.</p> <p>“This kid, just on the fact that he is such an amazing athlete, the most coveted record in (Australian) sprinting was Peter Norman’s 1968 200m record that he did in that iconic race, of course that Black Power race in Mexico City,” Shirvington began on Channel 7’s Sunrise. </p> <p>“The fact he has come out as a 16-year-old — he is not 17 until the 29th of December — is a phenomenal thing."</p> <p>“The other thing, he ran a windy 10.04 — that’s the fifth fastest in all conditions by an Australian. He will be the greatest athlete we have ever produced in this country. I’m saying that hands down.”</p> <p>Shirvo's <em>Sunrise</em> co-hosts were taken aback by his claims, but his praise didn't stop there, as he even predicted he could be one of the greatest athletes in the world in years to come.</p> <p>“A lot of people are comparing Gout to the GOAT, which is Usain Bolt, of course,” Shirvington said. “I think he’s got more to produce the goods." </p> <p>“And I sat down with a British coach who has trained some of the best 400m runners in the world ever and he reckons over the 400 he could very well be the world record holder too.</p> <p>“Who knows, 100, 200, 400 — he may make it happen. In terms of the 100, breaking the 10 second barrier, it will not only be a blip on his radar, he will do it 100 times and it won’t even be a barrier for him.”</p> <p>“He’s so young, so talented, he has a great team around him, his coach Di Shepherd, his manager James Templeton, his parents are just beautiful people,” Shirvington continued. “He is one of 7 siblings, he’s got a great story. And heading into 2032, there is going to be a huge support for him. He has the world at his feet."</p> <p>“He’s going to train with Noah Lyles in January — of course Noah Lyles the Olympic champion. He’s going to be brilliant. For me, greatness is destined for Gout Gout.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: X / Sunrise</em></p>

TV

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Nostradamus' 2025 predictions revealed

<p>Nostradamus a 16th-century French Astrologer known as the "prophet of doom" has some wild predictions for the upcoming year. </p> <p>The astrologer has been credited with foretelling the Great Fire of London, Hitler’s rise to power, the September 11 attacks, the Covid-19 pandemic, and last year’s New Year’s Day earthquake. </p> <p>His predictions were published in his book “Les Prophéties” in 1555</p> <p>Last year, the astrologer was credited for predicting the powerful earthquake that rocked Japan on New Year's.</p> <p>A few of his other predictions for 2024 included the abdication of King Charles, war with China, a new pope, and the world getting closer to a climate apocalypse. </p> <p>Now, his predictions for 2025 have been revealed with one of them being the potential end to the Ukraine conflict. </p> <p>He wrote: "Through long war all the army exhausted,so that they do not find money for the soldiers; instead of gold or silver, they will come to coin leather, Gallic brass, and the crescent sign of the Moon."</p> <p>The astrologer predicted that financial ruin and exhausted resources could spell the end of an ongoing armed conflict, which many of his followers assumed is a reference to Russia and Ukraine. </p> <p>However, he wrote that England will be beset by  “cruel wars” and will face an “ancient plague” that will be “worse than enemies.”</p> <p>He also wrote: "Garden of the world near the new city, In the path of the hollow mountains: It will be seized and plunged into the Tub, Forced to drink waters poisoned by sulphur."</p> <p>Some believe the "garden of the world" refers to the Amazon forest, with plunging into a tub and sipping sulphur implying that there will be floods and volcanic activity. </p> <p>While most of his predictions seem bleak, more often than not they miss the mark. </p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p> <p> </p>

Travel Trouble

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Predictably, domestic airfares surged after the collapse of Rex. There aren’t many good solutions

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871">Doug Drury</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a></em></p> <p>Australia’s airline industry is famously duopolistic. Just two companies – Qantas and Virgin Australia – service 98% of the domestic passenger market. That’s not for a lack of other companies having <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/traveller/travel-news/grounded-five-of-australias-biggest-airline-failures-20221216-h28pzn.html">tried to secure a foothold</a>, over many decades.</p> <p>In 2024 alone, we’ve seen the high-profile collapse of both <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-just-happened-to-bonza-why-new-budget-airlines-always-struggle-in-australia-228995">Bonza</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/rex-airlines-future-up-in-the-air-amid-questions-about-viability-of-small-airlines-in-australia-235761">Rex</a>, airlines that once ignited hopes for much greater competition in the sector. Now, we’re beginning to see the predictable effects of their exit.</p> <p>According to a <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/domestic-airfares-increase-amid-reduced-airline-competition">quarterly report</a> released on Tuesday by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), domestic airfares on major city routes increased by 13.3% to September after Rex Airlines halted its capital city services at the end of July.</p> <p>There’s little reason to be optimistic about things changing anytime soon. Australia’s lack of competition means airfares are only likely to remain inflated due to higher demand and lower supply.</p> <h2>How are airfares actually set?</h2> <p>To predict what the market will bear in a given year, airlines use a process called <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0969699714000556">revenue management</a>.</p> <p>This involves sophisticated mathematical modelling, incorporating a range of factors – seasonal variations for school breaks, holidays, and major sporting events – to determine both what the airlines can charge per passenger and what the likely impact will be on their bottom line.</p> <p>There are three main expenses that airlines expect every year which fluctuate regularly:</p> <ul> <li>fuel prices</li> <li>aircraft maintenance</li> <li>salaries.</li> </ul> <p>But the Australian market has some unique characteristics. Our options for travelling the vast distances between major cities are very limited – and, if we’re not flying, very time-consuming too.</p> <p>Many of us choose to fly as it provides us more time at our destination for leisure or work, without a massive road trip or train ride. Our airline duopoly is very aware of this, and know we’re willing to pay a premium for convenience.</p> <p>The ACCC found that the price of “best discount economy” tickets on routes Rex had recently departed had <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/domestic-airfares-increase-amid-reduced-airline-competition">increased significantly</a> – up 95% between Adelaide and Melbourne, and 54% between Canberra and Melbourne.</p> <p>The report also noted that fuel prices declined by more than 40% in the 12 months to September, which the airlines have not adjusted for in their pricing model.</p> <h2>The best solution’s a long shot</h2> <p>For Australian passengers to pay lower domestic airfares, competition from another airline is the only viable solution. That might seem like a far-fetched proposition for the foreseeable future.</p> <p>Any airline attempting to start up in Australia would need significant financial backing to weather market fluctuations, and a singular focus on flying the airline.</p> <p>There might be some hope on the horizon with a possible new entrant, Koala Airlines, in the press recently, stating its intentions to enter this market and be successful.</p> <p>Many customers may be hoping Koala can excel where Bonza and Rex were unable to. However, its entry remains quite some way off. Koala is still working on attaining an <a href="https://www.casa.gov.au/licences-and-certificates/air-operators">air operators certificate</a> (AOC) from CASA and a fleet of new aircraft.</p> <p>Koala has given few details about its business strategy, except for a promised <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-29/koala-airlines-to-enter-qantas-virgin-duopoly-four-corners/104405640">cash refund guarantee</a> for passengers, and plans to implement <a href="https://koalaair.com.au/koala-tech/">artificial intelligence</a> to remain viable in the market.</p> <h2>What else can be done?</h2> <p>Can the government do anything to protect new entrants, to support them through the initial startup phase? Part-ownership of any new airline by the government is probably off the cards.</p> <p>Salvaging the competition we have left may be a better strategy. Also on Tuesday, the government announced an <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/transport/labor-stumps-up-80m-to-keep-failing-airline-rex-afloat-20241112-p5kpu3">$80 million support package</a> to keep Rex’s regional services operational.</p> <p>Much of Rex’s fleet of SAAB 340 aircraft is in need of repair, so this will help somewhat.</p> <p>But such a big spending package is reminiscent of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-funding-to-qantas-and-virgin-to-ensure-air-services-on-key-routes-136554">pandemic-era strategies</a> the government will not want to revisit on a grand scale.</p> <h2>Better compliance</h2> <p>Other strategies could focus on ensuring that everyone plays fairly and doesn’t abuse the system to keep market share. The ACCC’s latest report is part of ongoing quarterly reporting, after the Treasurer redirected the ACCC to monitor domestic airfares for another three years in November last year.</p> <p>But other regulatory oversight may have been lacking. <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/news/competition-at-sydney-airport-less-than-we-like/">Speaking</a> before a senate inquiry on Tuesday, Sydney Airport’s Scott Charlton said that until recently, a compliance committee set up to monitor Sydney Airport’s slot system hadn’t met for five years.</p> <p>The government will need to tread carefully. If it wants to provide incentives for new entrants, it will need to do so in a manner that does not appear to be a re-regulation strategy, creating hardships for Qantas and Virgin Australia.</p> <p>Ultimately, appearing to re-regulate the Australian aviation sector is not in line with the government’s long term strategy of keeping the airline market stable through less intervention. <!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/243463/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871"><em>Doug Drury</em></a><em>, Professor/Head of Aviation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/predictably-domestic-airfares-surged-after-the-collapse-of-rex-there-arent-many-good-solutions-243463">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Domestic Travel

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Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a></em></p> <p>Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start">Hurricane Milton</a>, within two weeks of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hurricane-helene-became-a-deadly-disaster-across-six-states-240522">Hurricane Helene</a>. Climate change <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-key-driver-of-catastrophic-impacts-of-hurricane-helene-that-devastated-both-coastal-and-inland-communities/">likely made their impacts worse</a>.</p> <p>In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/">long-range forecast</a> for this season.</p> <p>It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average.</p> <p>So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones?</p> <p>The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1251/2024/hess-28-1251-2024.pdf">more intense rain and flooding</a>.</p> <h2>Climate change is making prediction harder</h2> <p>Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1">globally</a> and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4">observations</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4">modelling</a>.</p> <p>The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969.</p> <p>However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions.</p> <p>The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/">2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones</a>. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated.</p> <h2>El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too</h2> <p>Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).</p> <p>Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">forecast</a>:</p> <blockquote> <p>La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025.</p> </blockquote> <p>Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asl2.502">ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened</a> in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder.</p> <p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">bureau’s ENSO outlook</a> is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says:</p> <blockquote> <p>Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived.</p> </blockquote> <p>The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions.</p> <h2>So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?</h2> <p>If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.)</p> <p>However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones</a>. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage.</p> <p>If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity.</p> <p>Another factor is that the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/sst/#/anom/global/weekly/20241006">world’s oceans are much warmer than usual</a>. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form.</p> <p>Many ocean heat <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2">records have been set</a> recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate.</p> <h2>Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes</h2> <p>The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion.</p> <p>Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge.</p> <p>Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate.</p> <hr /> <p><em>The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hamish-ramsay-19549">Hamish Ramsay</a> during the writing of this article.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241000/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002"><em>Andrew Dowdy</em></a><em>, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, Associate Professor, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Travel Trouble

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Nostradamus prediction on King Charles sparks fresh theories

<p>An eerie prediction on King Charles made by 16th century astrologer Nostradamus has resurfaced following the royal's cancer diagnosis. </p> <p>The French physician is known for his uncannily accurate predictions which he wrote in a tome called <em>Les Propheties</em> in 1555. </p> <p><em>Les Propheties</em> contains 942 predictions which have been analysed over the years, and some have claimed that it foresaw major events including  the Great Fire of London in 1666 , the French Revolution and even 9/11. </p> <p>It is also believed to have accurately predicted Queen Elizabeth's death, as in his book Nostradamus said that the second Queen Elizabeth would die in "22" at "around" the age of 96. </p> <p>She passed away on the 8th of September 2022 at the age of 96. </p> <p>The astrologer also predicted that in 2024, the royal family would face turmoil with a King “driven out by force”. </p> <p>“King of the Isles driven out by force ... replaced by one who will have no mark of a king,” the passage in the book read. </p> <p>Nostradamus expert Mario Reading initially interpreted the prophecy to refer to an “unworthy” and unpopular King who would be driven out by the wishes of the people and replaced by someone who "never expected to be King". </p> <p>But now, with King Charles' cancer diagnosis, many have shared their own predictions on what might happen to the royal, mainly him being forced from the throne because of his illness. </p> <p>Others have raised the question on who is the man they “never expected to be King”?</p> <p>If Charles abdicates, and Prince William declines the throne and the role of Prince Regent as he faces his own battle with Kate's cancer diagnosis, then would William’s eldest son George, 10, become king? </p> <p>In today's monarchy, what are the implications of a 10-year-old becoming King and would they instead consider an adult, aka the fifth in line or “spare to the heir,” Prince Harry as a better option for King? </p> <p>There are so many possibilities floating around. </p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock/ Instagram</em></p> <p> </p>

Caring

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The alarmingly accurate predictions made 100 years ago

<p>A university researcher has uncovered predictions made in 1924 about what the world would look like 100 years in the future, with some of the predictions proving to be scarily accurate. </p> <p>The Canadian professor Paul Fairie shared a selection of headlines and articles made by newspapers in the 1920s on his X account, showing in what ways the world has changed and how it has remained the same.</p> <p>While some predictions made in 1924 hit the nail on the head, others couldn't be further from reality. </p> <p><strong>Accurate predictions </strong></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Car speedways</em></span></p> <p>One newspaper clipping claimed that in the future, cars would be travelling on super "speedways" that allowed them to travel faster. </p> <p>While cars first hit the roads in the 1880s, it wasn't until the 1920s that vehicles became more common, with cities quickly trying to build safe roads to accommodate the growth in motor vehicles. </p> <p>“In the city of 2024, this authority predicts there will be three-deck roads; speedways through the heart of town,” the newspaper article predicted.</p> <p>The article also envisaged monorail express services to the suburbs replacing cars and buses and moving sidewalks (similar to airport travelators) that moved people in all directions, “serving all railroad stations and business districts”.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Women getting tattooed and dyeing their hair</em></span></p> <p>In the 1920s, tattoos were exclusively reserved for sailors, criminals and gangland figures until they became more commonplace. </p> <p>But one 1924 article predicted, incredibly accurately, that by 2024 women would be getting tattoos and dyeing their hair “all the colours of the rainbow”.</p> <p>“Debutantes of 1924 are shingle-haired, sleek-looking maidens with delicately rouged cheeks and provocative red lips,” the article stated.</p> <p>“The 1924 debutante successfully conceals her personality under paint and power."</p> <p>“The debutante of 100 years hence may revert to type and frankly copy her ancestors, who dyed their skins with woad; only, with the modern instinct for progress."</p> <p>“She may go still further and dye her complexion and hair all the colours of the rainbow.”</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Women becoming stronger</em></span></p> <p>The newspapers of 1924 also predicted that women of the future would be “physically strong, vital and alert.”</p> <p>One article predicted that women would spend more time in the outdoors, participate in sports, and would be “engaging by choice” in activities that were historically restricted to men.</p> <p>Intellectually, women would be “quick at wit and keen of judgment,” while spiritually, she would “radiate love and good will”.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Remote viewing </em></span></p> <p>One of the most accurate predictions from 1924 was the invention of technology that would allow people to view entertainment "remotely". </p> <p>“Many inconveniences which the touring artist now has to suffer will no doubt be eliminated,” one prediction read.</p> <p>“It will not be necessary to travel great distances. The strain of the concert tour will be dispensed with. Artists may not even have to leave their homes (to perform).”</p> <p><strong>Not so accurate predictions</strong></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Horses becoming extinct </em></span></p> <p>One prediction from a 1924 newspaper believed that as cars took over as the main form of transportation, there would be no more use for horses and they would soon becoming extinct. </p> <p>“If a house would decrease in the same ratio as in the last ten or twenty years, it might be easy to tell when the last horse would give up his stall to an automobile,” the prediction read.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em>Self-launching beds</em></span></p> <p>Another not-so accurate prediction claimed that beds would soon come with a feature that would override the use for an alarm clock, but would come with a mechanism to launch you out of bed in the morning. </p> <p>Describing this futuristic scenario, the reporter wrote: “My bed turns over automatically and I am deposited on the floor”.</p> <p>“Eight o’clock and the switch operating above the fiendish substitute for an alarm clock is operated from school, so at the moment, I am in the same predicament as the rest of the 450 scholars.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p>

Technology

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“We’re now in a death spiral”: Complete collapse of Channel Ten predicted

<p>The future of Network Ten is in jeopardy, as the broadcaster continues to face dwindling ratings nationwide, while also juggling a turbulent ownership battle at its American parent company Paramount. </p> <p><a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/media/network-10-is-in-total-turmoil-and-may-not-survive-as-australias-third-commercial-broadcaster/news-story/8834f836947d5f4ca478c9b88db9e47f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">According to a report by news.com.au</a>, the existence of the Network is in "total turmoil", after high profile shows such as <em>The Masked Singer</em> and <em>The Bachelor</em> have both been axed, leaving many wondering how long the broadcaster can stay afloat.</p> <p>Queensland University of Technology Professor Amanda Lotz, who leads the Transforming Media Industries research program, told the outlet that it’s unlikely Australia will still have three free-to-air commercial networks in the near future.</p> <p>“I would suspect by the end of the decade that we will have two commercial broadcasters,” Prof Lotz said. “It’s just math. We’re now in a death spiral. And eventually, it might be that we just have one.”</p> <p>QUT Professor Anna Potter, an expert in digital media and cultural studies, agreed that the landscape for commercial TV in Australia is now so stretched that television businesses are dangerously unviable.</p> <p>“I think there’s a big question too about whether Australia can support three television (commercial) broadcasters – and I’m not sure we can,” Prof Potter said.</p> <p>A major part of Ten's toppling has been the ongoing defamation suit against the network, launched against Bruce Lehrmann. </p> <p>While Ten successfully defended the suit, they hardly came out unscathed as the Federal Court criticised its handling of various matters related to the broadcast of <em>The Project</em>’s explosive interview with Brittany Higgins in 2021.</p> <p>Daily headlines about the court case overshadowed many popular programs, many of which failed to deliver a significant ratings recovery.</p> <p>As the network has consistently lost viewers over the past years, nationwide ratings have continuously put Network 10 behind its other commercial competitors, making parent company Paramount doubt how viable the business can be long term. </p> <p>Media analyst and Pearman director of strategy and research Steve Allen said, “A new owner of Paramount Global is unlikely to see Ten as an asset worth retaining because the business is in serious turmoil.”</p> <p>“There’s no programming momentum and they haven’t found a really solid anchor for prime time, their revenue looks steady but they can’t seem to significantly reduce overheads, and now there’s upheaval in terms of their US ownership."</p> <p>“Network 10 is in a real pickle and I don’t see a way out for them.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Ten </em></p>

TV

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Mortgage and inflation pain to ease, but only slowly: how 31 top economists see 2024

<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p>A panel of 31 leading economists assembled by The Conversation sees no cut in interest rates before the middle of this year, and only a slight cut by December, enough to trim just $55 per month off the cost of servicing a $600,000 variable-rate mortgage.</p> <p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/conversation-economic-survey-81354">panel</a> draws on the expertise of leading forecasters at 28 Australian universities, think tanks and financial institutions – among them economic modellers, former Treasury, International Monetary Fund and Reserve Bank officials, and a former member of the Reserve Bank board.</p> <p>Its forecasts paint a picture of weak economic growth, stagnant consumer spending, and a continuing per-capita recession.</p> <p>The average forecast is for the Reserve Bank to delay cutting its cash rate, keeping it near its present 4.35% until at least the middle of the year, and then cutting it to <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3028/The_Conversation_AU_February_2024_Economic_Survey.pdf">4.2%</a> by December 2024, 3.6% by December 2025 and 3.4% by December 2026.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="xV821" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xV821/4/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The gentle descent would deliver only three interest rate cuts by the end of next year, cutting $274 from the monthly cost of servicing a $600,000 mortgage and leaving the cost around $1,100 higher than it was before rates began climbing.</p> <p>Six of the experts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank to increase rates further in the first half of the year, while 20 expect no change and three expect a cut.</p> <p>Former head of the NSW treasury Percy Allan said while the Reserve Bank would push up rates in the first half of the year to make sure inflation comes down, it would be forced to relent in the second half of the year as unemployment grows and the economy heads towards recession.</p> <p>Warwick McKibbin, a former member of the Reserve Bank board, said the board would push up rates once more in the first half of the year as insurance against inflation before leaving them on hold.</p> <p>Former Reserve Bank of Australia chief economist Luci Ellis, who is now chief economist at Westpac, expects the first cut no sooner than September, believing the board will wait to see clear evidence of further falls in inflation and economic weakening before it moves.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="ZQgno" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZQgno/7/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Inflation to keep falling, but more gradually</h2> <p>Today’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/">Reserve Bank board meeting</a> will consider an inflation rate that has come down <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-7-new-graphs-that-show-inflation-falling-back-to-earth-220670">faster than it expected</a>, diving from 7.8% to 4.1% in the space of a year.</p> <p>The newer more experimental monthly measure of inflation was just <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-7-new-graphs-that-show-inflation-falling-back-to-earth-220670">3.4%</a> in the year to December, only points away from the Reserve Bank’s target of 2–3%.</p> <p>But the panel expects the descent to slow from here on, with the standard measure taking the rest of the year to fall from 4.1% to 3.5% and not getting below 3% until <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3027/The_Conversation_AU_2024_economic_survey.pdf">late 2025</a>.</p> <p>Economists Chris Richardson and Saul Eslake say while inflation will keep heading down, the decline might be slowed by supply chain pressures from the conflict in the Middle East and the boost to incomes from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-tax-plan-will-give-average-earner-1500-tax-cut-more-than-double-morrisons-stage-3-221875">tax cuts</a> due in July.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="buC9f" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/buC9f/6/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Slower wage growth, higher unemployment</h2> <p>While the panel expects wages to grow faster than the consumer price index, it expects wages growth to slip from around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release">4%</a> in 2023 to 3.8% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2025 as higher unemployment blunts workers’ bargaining power.</p> <p>But the panel doesn’t expect much of an increase in unemployment. It expects the unemployment rate to climb from its present <a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/w9h9f/">3.9%</a> (which is almost a long-term low) to 4.3% throughout 2024, and then to stay at about that level through 2025.</p> <p>All but two of the panel expect the unemployment rate to remain below the range of 5–6% that was typical in the decade before COVID.</p> <p>Economic modeller Janine Dixon said the “new normal” between 4% and 5% was likely to become permanent as workers embraced flexible arrangements that allow them to stay in jobs in a way they couldn’t before.</p> <p>Cassandra Winzar, chief economist at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, said the government’s commitment to full employment was one of the things likely to keep unemployment low, along with Australia’s demographic transition as older workers leave the workforce.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="pAioo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pAioo/2/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Slower economic growth, per-capita recession</h2> <p>The panel expects very low economic growth of just 1.7% in 2024, climbing to 2.3% in 2025. Both are well below the 2.75% the treasury believes the economy is <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/the-economic-and-fiscal-context-and-the-role-of-longitudinal-data-in-policy-advice">capable of</a>.</p> <p>All but one of the forecasts are for economic growth below the present population growth rate of 2.4%, suggesting that the panel expects population growth to exceed economic growth for the second year running, extending Australia’s so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-per-capita-recession-as-chalmers-says-gdp-steady-in-the-face-of-pressure-212642">per capita recession</a>.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="TO8bP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TO8bP/4/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The lacklustre forecasts raise the possibility of what is commonly defined as a “technical recession”, which is two consecutive quarters of negative economic somewhere within a year of mediocre growth.</p> <p>Taken together, the forecasters assign a 20% probability to such a recession in the next two years, which is lower than in <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-more-rba-rate-hikes-tumbling-inflation-and-a-high-chance-of-recession-how-our-forecasting-panel-sees-2023-24-208477">previous surveys</a>.</p> <p>But some of the individual estimates are high. Percy Allen and Stephen Anthony assign a 75% and 70% chance to such a recession, and Warren Hogan a 50% chance.</p> <p>Hogan said when the economic growth figures for the present quarter get released, they are likely to show Australia is in such a recession at the moment.</p> <p>The economy barely grew at all in the September quarter, expanding just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release">0.2%</a> and was likely to have shrunk in the December quarter and to shrink further in this quarter.</p> <p>The panel expects the US economy to grow by 2.1% in the year ahead in line with the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024">International Monetary Fund</a> forecast, and China’s economy to grow 5.4%, which is lower than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast.</p> <h2>Weaker spending, weak investment</h2> <p>The panel expects weak real household spending growth of just 1.2% in 2014, supported by an ultra-low household saving ratio of close to zero, down from a recent peak of 19% in September 2021.</p> <p>Mala Raghavan of The University of Tasmania said previous gains in income, rising asset prices and accumulated savings were being overwhelmed by high inflation and rising interest rates.</p> <p>Luci Ellis expected the squeeze to continue until tax and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, accompanied by declining inflation.</p> <p>The panel expects non-mining investment to grow by only 5.1% in the year ahead, down from 15%, and mining investment to grow by 10.2%, down from 22%.</p> <p>Johnathan McMenamin from Barrenjoey said private and public investment had been responsible for the lion’s share of economic growth over the past year and was set to plateau and fade as a driver of growth.</p> <h2>Home prices to climb, but more slowly</h2> <p>The panel expects home price growth of 4.6% in Sydney during 2024 (down from 11.4% in 2024) and 3.1% in Melbourne, down from 3.9% in 2024.</p> <p>ANZ economist Adam Boyton said decade-low building approvals and very strong population growth should keep demand for housing high, outweighing a drag on prices from high interest rates. While high interest rates have been restraining demand, they are likely to ease later in the year.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="syk8x" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/syk8x/6/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>In other forecasts, the panel expects the Australian dollar to stay below US$0.70, closing the year at US$0.69, it expects the ASX 200 share market index to climb just 3% in 2024 after climbing 7.8% in 2023, and it expects a small budget surplus of A$3.8 billion in 2023-24, followed by a deficit of A$13 billion in 2024-25.</p> <p>The budget surplus should be supported by a forecast iron ore price of US$114 per tonne in December 2024, down from the present US$130, but well up on the <a href="https://budget.gov.au/content/myefo/index.htm">US$105</a> assumed in the government’s December budget update.</p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709"><em>Peter Martin</em></a><em>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mortgage-and-inflation-pain-to-ease-but-only-slowly-how-31-top-economists-see-2024-218927">original article</a>.</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Nostradamus’ 2024 predictions revealed

<p>Nostradamus, a 16th-century French astrologer known as “the prophet of doom,” has a warning about the potential upcoming events of 2024. </p> <p>The astrologer's visions and predictions in the past have credited with foreseeing the rise of Adolf Hitler, the assassination of John F. Kennedy, the September 11 attacks and Covid, to name a few. </p> <p>Now, according to his 1555 text Les Propheties (The Prophecies), 2024 is set to bring continued global strife, including war on the seas, royal turmoil and humanitarian disaster.</p> <p>One of the passages in the text mentions that a “King of the Isles” will be “driven out by force”, with many taking this to mean King Charles III will be ousted from the throne. </p> <p>A following passage reads “soon afterwards [a disastrous war] a new King shall be anointed / Who, for a long time, will appease the earth,” with British author and Nostradamus commentator Mario Reading deciphering this to mean Prince Harry will become King. </p> <p>According to the <em>Daily Mail</em>, Reading analysed that King Charles III would be abdicating due to “persistent attacks on both himself and his second wife,” and Harry would replace him instead of William because he — the “Spare” heir — has “no mark of a king.”</p> <p>Nostradamus predicted “combat and naval battle” and said that a “red adversary will become pale with fear, putting the great ocean in dread”.</p> <p>Many have guessed the "red adversary" is in reference to China, with suggestions the global superpower could wage war on the rest of the world, given the growing tensions between China and Taiwan. </p> <p>For many years, climate change has been a topic at the front of people's mind, with Nostradamus predicting global warming will get worse over the next 12 months. </p> <p>“The dry earth will grow more parched, and there will be great floods when it is seen,” he wrote.</p> <p>He also predicted extreme weather events and world hunger, writing about a “Very great famine through pestiferous wave”.</p> <p>While some of Nostradamus’ doomsday predictions seem bleak, fear not, for his most terrifying 2023 predictions have yet to come true with just a few weeks left before the new year. </p> <p>This year, Nostradamus predicted the coming of the antichrist as well as a full-blown World War III.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p>

Mind

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Here’s how a new AI tool may predict early signs of Parkinson’s disease

<p>In 1991, the world was shocked to learn actor <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jan/31/still-a-michael-j-fox-movie-parkinsons-back-to-the-future">Michael J. Fox</a> had been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. </p> <p>He was just 29 years old and at the height of Hollywood fame, a year after the release of the blockbuster <em>Back to the Future III</em>. This week, documentary <em><a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt19853258/">Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie</a></em> will be released. It features interviews with Fox, his friends, family and experts. </p> <p>Parkinson’s is a debilitating neurological disease characterised by <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/parkinsons-disease/symptoms-causes/syc-20376055">motor symptoms</a> including slow movement, body tremors, muscle stiffness, and reduced balance. Fox has already <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/michael-j-fox-on-parkinsons-and-maintaining-optimism">broken</a> his arms, elbows, face and hand from multiple falls. </p> <p>It is not genetic, has no specific test and cannot be accurately diagnosed before motor symptoms appear. Its cause is still <a href="https://www.apdaparkinson.org/what-is-parkinsons/causes/">unknown</a>, although Fox is among those who thinks <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/michael-j-fox-on-parkinsons-and-maintaining-optimism">chemical exposure may play a central role</a>, speculating that “genetics loads the gun and environment pulls the trigger”.</p> <p>In research published today in <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acscentsci.2c01468">ACS Central Science</a>, we built an artificial intelligence (AI) tool that can predict Parkinson’s disease with up to 96% accuracy and up to 15 years before a clinical diagnosis based on the analysis of chemicals in blood. </p> <p>While this AI tool showed promise for accurate early diagnosis, it also revealed chemicals that were strongly linked to a correct prediction.</p> <h2>More common than ever</h2> <p>Parkinson’s is the world’s <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/parkinson-disease">fastest growing neurological disease</a> with <a href="https://shakeitup.org.au/understanding-parkinsons/">38 Australians</a>diagnosed every day.</p> <p>For people over 50, the chance of developing Parkinson’s is <a href="https://www.parkinsonsact.org.au/statistics-about-parkinsons/">higher than many cancers</a> including breast, colorectal, ovarian and pancreatic cancer.</p> <p>Symptoms such as <a href="https://www.apdaparkinson.org/what-is-parkinsons/symptoms/#nonmotor">depression, loss of smell and sleep problems</a> can predate clinical movement or cognitive symptoms by decades. </p> <p>However, the prevalence of such symptoms in many other medical conditions means early signs of Parkinson’s disease can be overlooked and the condition may be mismanaged, contributing to increased hospitalisation rates and ineffective treatment strategies.</p> <h2>Our research</h2> <p>At UNSW we collaborated with experts from Boston University to build an AI tool that can analyse mass spectrometry datasets (a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/mass-spectrometry">technique</a> that detects chemicals) from blood samples.</p> <p>For this study, we looked at the Spanish <a href="https://epic.iarc.fr/">European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition</a> (EPIC) study which involved over 41,000 participants. About 90 of them developed Parkinson’s within 15 years. </p> <p>To train the AI model we used a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41531-021-00216-4">subset of data</a> consisting of a random selection of 39 participants who later developed Parkinson’s. They were matched to 39 control participants who did not. The AI tool was given blood data from participants, all of whom were healthy at the time of blood donation. This meant the blood could provide early signs of the disease. </p> <p>Drawing on blood data from the EPIC study, the AI tool was then used to conduct 100 “experiments” and we assessed the accuracy of 100 different models for predicting Parkinson’s. </p> <p>Overall, AI could detect Parkinson’s disease with up to 96% accuracy. The AI tool was also used to help us identify which chemicals or metabolites were likely linked to those who later developed the disease.</p> <h2>Key metabolites</h2> <p>Metabolites are chemicals produced or used as the body digests and breaks down things like food, drugs, and other substances from environmental exposure. </p> <p>Our bodies can contain thousands of metabolites and their concentrations can differ significantly between healthy people and those affected by disease.</p> <p>Our research identified a chemical, likely a triterpenoid, as a key metabolite that could prevent Parkinson’s disease. It was found the abundance of triterpenoid was lower in the blood of those who developed Parkinson’s compared to those who did not.</p> <p>Triterpenoids are known <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/neuroscience/neuroprotection">neuroprotectants</a> that can regulate <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ana.10483">oxidative stress</a> – a leading factor implicated in Parkinson’s disease – and prevent cell death in the brain. Many foods such as <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11101-012-9241-9#Sec3">apples and tomatoes</a> are rich sources of triterpenoids.</p> <p>A synthetic chemical (a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html">polyfluorinated alkyl substance</a>) was also linked as something that might increase the risk of the disease. This chemical was found in higher abundances in those who later developed Parkinson’s. </p> <p>More research using different methods and looking at larger populations is needed to further validate these results.</p> <h2>A high financial and personal burden</h2> <p>Every year in Australia, the average person with Parkinson’s spends over <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/pd/2017/5932675/">A$14,000</a>in out-of-pocket medical costs.</p> <p>The burden of living with the disease can be intolerable.</p> <p>Fox acknowledges the disease can be a “nightmare” and a “living hell”, but he has also found that “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/michael-j-fox-on-parkinsons-and-maintaining-optimism">with gratitude, optimism is sustainable</a>”. </p> <p>As researchers, we find hope in the potential use of AI technologies to improve patient quality of life and reduce health-care costs by accurately detecting diseases early.</p> <p>We are excited for the research community to try our AI tool, which is <a href="https://github.com/CRANK-MS/CRANK-MS">publicly available</a>.</p> <p><em>This research was performed with Mr Chonghua Xue and A/Prof Vijaya Kolachalama (Boston University).</em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-how-a-new-ai-tool-may-predict-early-signs-of-parkinsons-disease-205221" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>

Mind

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"And so it begins": Royal expert predicts the end of Australia's relationship with the Crown

<p>A royal expert has claimed that King Charles could be ditched as Australia's Head of State, after it was announced his portrait will not feature on the new $5 notes. </p> <p>In a historic move, the Commonwealth country will erase the British monarch from its banknotes, but instead replace the image of the late Queen Elizabeth with a design honouring First Nations Australians and their rich culture. </p> <p>Anti-royalists hailed the decision as a step towards a republic Down Under, while Peter Hunt, the BBC's former royal correspondent, ominously tweeted, "So it begins. Slowly."</p> <p>King Charles is still set to appear on coins when they are released later in 2023, but will not feature on any banknotes like previous monarchs. </p> <p>The central bank said its decision was supported by the centre-left Labor government of Prime Minister Mr Albanese, who favours an eventual move to an Australian republic.</p> <p>Despite Albanese's stance, he has said a referendum will not be held in the near future.</p> <p>The Reserve Bank of Australia has not set a date for the new currency, but confirmed Charles would not be on it after "consultation with the Australian government, which supports this change".</p> <p>Officials had claimed there had never been any guarantee that King Charles would replace his late mother on the new iteration of Australia's $5 note. </p> <p>Liberal leader Peter Dutton said of the change, "There's no question about this that it's directed by the government and I think the Prime Minister should own up to it. He would have been central to the decision-making."</p> <p>"I think it's another attack on our systems, on our society and our institutions."</p> <p>The popularity of the royal family has consistently fallen in Australia since the death of Queen Elizabeth in September 2022, and has continued with the public bickering within the family since the release of Prince Harry's memoir <em>Spare</em>. </p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Do you use predictive text? Chances are it’s not saving you time – and could even be slowing you down

<p>Typing is one of the most common things we do on our mobile phones. A recent survey suggests that millenials spend <a href="https://www.provisionliving.com/blog/smartphone-screen-time-baby-boomers-and-millennials/">48 minutes</a> each day texting, while boomers spend 30 minutes.</p> <p>Since the advent of mobile phones, the way we text has changed. We’ve seen the introduction of autocorrect, which corrects errors as we type, and word prediction (often called predictive text), which predicts the next word we want to type and allows us to select it above the keyboard.</p> <p>Functions such as autocorrect and predictive text are designed to make typing faster and more efficient. But research shows this isn’t necessarily true of predictive text.</p> <p>A <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2858036.2858305">study</a> published in 2016 found predictive text wasn’t associated with any overall improvement in typing speed. But this study only had 17 participants – and all used the same type of mobile device.</p> <p>In 2019, my colleagues and I published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3338286.3340120">a study</a> in which we looked at mobile typing data from more than 37,000 volunteers, all using their own mobile phones. Participants were asked to copy sentences as quickly and accurately as possible.</p> <p>Participants who used predictive text typed an average of 33 words per minute. This was slower than those who didn’t use an intelligent text entry method (35 words per minute) and significantly slower than participants who used autocorrect (43 words per minute).</p> <h2>Breaking it down</h2> <p>It’s interesting to consider the poor correlation between predictive text and typing performance. The idea seems to make sense: if the system can predict your intended word before you type it, this should save you time. </p> <p>In my most <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3411764.3445566">recent study</a> on this topic, a colleague and I explored the conditions that determine whether predictive text is effective. We combined some of these conditions, or parameters, to simulate a large number of different scenarios and therefore determine when predictive text is effective – and when it’s not.</p> <p>We built a couple of fundamental parameters associated with predictive text performance into our simulation. The first is the average time it takes a user to hit a key on the keyboard (essentially a measure of their typing speed). We estimated this at 0.26 seconds, based on <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2470654.2466180">earlier research</a>.</p> <p>The second fundamental parameter is the average time it takes a user to look at a predictive text suggestion and select it. We fixed this at 0.45 seconds, again based on <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/1240624.1240723">existing data</a>.</p> <p>Beyond these, there’s a set of parameters which are less clear. These reflect the way the user engages with predictive text – or their strategies, if you like. In our research, we looked at how different approaches to two of these strategies influence the usefulness of predictive text.</p> <p>The first is minimum word length. This means the user will tend to only look at predictions for words beyond a certain length. You might only look at predictions if you’re typing longer words, beyond, say, six letters – because these words require more effort to spell and type out. The horizontal axis in the visualisation below shows the effect of varying the minimum length of a word before the user seeks a word prediction, from two letters to ten.</p> <p>The second strategy, “type-then-look”, governs how many letters the user will type before looking at word predictions. You might only look at the suggestions after typing the first three letters of a word, for example. The intuition here is that the more letters you type, the more likely the prediction will be correct. The vertical axis shows the effect of the user varying the type-then-look strategy from looking at word predictions even before typing (zero) to looking at predictions after one letter, two letters, and so on.</p> <p>A final latent strategy, perseverance, captures how long the user will type and check word predictions for before giving up and just typing out the word in full. While it would have been insightful to see how variation in perseverance affects the speed of typing with predictive text, even with a computer model, there were limitations to the amount of changeable data points we could include.</p> <p>So we fixed perseverance at five, meaning if there are no suitable suggestions after the user has typed five letters, they will complete the word without consulting predictive text further. Although we don’t have data on the average perseverance, this seems like a reasonable estimate.</p> <h2>What did we find?</h2> <p><img src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/2022/12/graph-text.jpg" alt="" />Above the dashed line there’s an increase in net entry rate while below it, predictive text slows the user down. The deep red shows when predictive text is most effective; an improvement of two words per minute compared to not using predictive text. The blue is when it’s least effective. Under certain conditions in our simulation, predictive text could slow a user down by as much as eight words per minute. </p> <p>The blue circle shows the optimal operating point, where you get the best results from predictive text. This occurs when word predictions are only sought for words with at least six letters and the user looks at a word prediction after typing three letters.</p> <p>So, for the average user, predictive text is unlikely to improve performance. And even when it does, it doesn’t seem to save much time. The potential gain of a couple of words per minute is much smaller than the potential time lost.</p> <p>It would be interesting to study long-term predictive text use and look at users’ strategies to verify that our assumptions from the model hold in practice. But our simulation reinforces the findings of previous human research: predictive text probably isn’t saving you time – and could be slowing you down.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-you-use-predictive-text-chances-are-its-not-saving-you-time-and-could-even-be-slowing-you-down-170163" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>

Technology

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Volcano breath test helps scientists predict deadly eruptions

<p>Humanity has a long history of living in the shadows of active volcanoes.</p> <p>Prized for their rich, fertile soils – ideal for cultivating crops – and their local topography, it isn’t hard to see why living in active volcanic regions remains a worthwhile gamble.</p> <p>Volcanic eruptions, however, are notoriously difficult to predict but improving our diagnostic abilities is crucial for developing early warning procedures and evading disaster.</p> <p>External indicators such as earthquakes and deformation of the Earth’s crust are traditional methods of identifying an imminent eruption, however, not all eruptions give these early warning signs.</p> <p>But now a research team from the University of Tokyo has gained better insight into the relationship between changes in the magma composition and eruption, by studying the ratio of specific chemical isotopes in gas and steam emitted from fumaroles — holes and cracks in the earth’s surface.</p> <p>“When you compare a volcano with a human body, the conventional geophysical methods represented by observations of earthquakes and crustal deformation are similar to listening to the chest and taking body size measurements”, said Professor Hirochika Sumino from the Research Centre for Advanced Science and Technology, who led the study.</p> <p>“In these cases, it is difficult to know what health problem causes some noise in your chest or a sudden increase in your weight, without a detailed medical check. On the other hand, analysing the chemical and isotope composition of elements in fumarolic gases is like a breath or blood test. This means we are looking at actual material directly derived from magma to know precisely what is going on with the magma.”</p> <p>Previous research on gas associated with an eruption from a volcano in the Canary Islands in 2011 showed an increase in the ratio of heavier helium isotopes which are typical of mantle material.</p> <p>“We knew that the helium isotope ratio occasionally changes from a low value, similar to the helium found in the Earth’s crust, to a high value, like that in the Earth’s mantle, when the activity of magma increases,” said Sumino. “But we didn’t know why we had more mantle-derived helium during magmatic unrest.”</p> <p>Sumino and team sought the answers in fumerole gas around Kusatsu-Shirane, an active volcano 150 km northwest of Tokyo. Taking samples of the gas back to the lab every few months between 2014 and 2021, the researchers were able to ascertain precise measurements of the isotopic components, discovering a relationship between the ratio of argon-40 to helium-3 ( a ‘high value’ isotope of helium) and magmatic unrest.</p> <p>“Using computer models, we revealed that the ratio reflects how much the magma underground is foaming, making bubbles of volcanic gases which separate from the liquid magma,” explained Sumino.</p> <p>The extent to which the magma is foaming “controls how much magmatic gas is provided to the hydrothermal system beneath a volcano and how buoyant the magma is. The former is related to a risk of phreatic eruption, in which an increase in water pressure in the hydrothermal system causes the eruption. The latter would increase the rate of magma ascent, resulting in a magmatic eruption.”</p> <p>The research collaboration is now developing a portable type of mass spectrometer which could be used in the field for real time analysis, reducing the need to constantly collect and transport samples back to the lab – a challenging a time-consuming process.</p> <p>“Our next step is to establish a noble gas analysis protocol with this new instrument, to make it a reality that all active volcanoes — at least those which have the potential to cause disaster to local residents — are monitored 24 hours a day, seven days a week,” said Sumino.</p> <p><strong>This article originally appeared on cosmosmagazine.com and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/volcano-breath-test-predict-eruptions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clare Kenyon</a>.</strong></p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Travel Trouble

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Can big data really predict what makes a song popular?

<p>Music is part of our lives in different ways. We listen to it on our commutes and it resounds through shopping centres. Some of us seek live music at concerts, festivals and shows or rely on music to set the tone and mood of our days.</p> <p>While we might understand the genres or songs we appreciate, it’s not clear precisely why a certain song is more appealing or popular. Perhaps the lyrics speak to an experience? Perhaps the energy makes it appealing? These questions are important to answer for music industry professionals, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-data-is-transforming-the-music-industry-70940">analyzing data</a> is a key part of this.</p> <p>At Carleton University, a group of data science researchers sought to answer the question: “What descriptive features of a song make it popular on music/online platforms?”</p> <h2>Revenue in the music industry</h2> <p>Revenue in the music industry <a href="https://doi.org/10.1509/jm.14.0473">is derived from two sources that are affected by different factors: live music and recorded music</a>. During the pandemic, although live music income dropped due to the cancellation of in-person performances, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267640">income from streaming</a> rose.</p> <p>As digital platforms like Spotify and TikTok have grown, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5753/sbcm.2019.10436">the majority of music revenue has come to be contributed by digital media, mostly music streaming</a>. How and whether this <a href="https://theconversation.com/artists-spotify-criticisms-point-to-larger-ways-musicians-lose-with-streaming-heres-3-changes-to-help-in-canada-176526">revenue reaches singers and songwriters at large</a> is another matter. </p> <h2>Popularity on digital platforms</h2> <p>The popularity of a song on digital platforms is considered a measure of the revenue the song may generate.</p> <p>As such, producers seek to answer questions like “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.171274">How can we make the song more popular?</a>” and “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ICMLA.2019.00149">What are the characteristics of songs that make it the top charts?</a>” </p> <p>With collaborators <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/laura-colley/">Laura Colley</a>, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-dybka/">Andrew Dybka</a>, Adam Gauthier, Jacob Laboissonniere, Alexandre Mougeot and Nayeeb Mowla, we produced a systematic study that collected data from YouTube, Twitter, TikTok, Spotify and Billboard (<a href="https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100">Billboard Hot-100</a>, sometimes also denoted by data researchers as “<a href="https://data.world/bigml/association-discovery">Billboard hot top</a>” or in our work and others’ work, “Billboard Top-100”).</p> <p>We linked the datasets from the different platforms with Spotify’s acoustic descriptive metric or “descriptive features” for songs. These features have been derived <a href="https://www.billboard.com/music/music-news/echo-nest-columbia-university-launch-million-song-dataset-1178990/">from a dataset which yielded categories for measuring and analyzing qualities of songs</a>. Spotify’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/mar/06/spotify-echo-nest-streaming-music-deal">metrics capture</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.171274">descriptive features such as</a>acousticness, energy, danceability and instrumentalness (the collection of instruments and voices in a given piece). </p> <p>We sought to find trends and analyze the relationship between songs’ descriptive features and their popularity.</p> <p>The rankings on the weekly <a href="https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/">Billboard Hot-100</a> are based on sales, online streams and radio plays in the United States.</p> <p>The analysis we performed by looking at Spotify and Billboard revealed insights that are useful for the music industry.</p> <h2>What predicts a Billboard hit?</h2> <p>To perform <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9842568">this study</a>, we used two different data sets pertaining to songs that <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/therecord/2013/08/16/207879695/how-the-hot-100-became-americas-hit-barometer">were Billboard hits</a> <a href="https://data.world/kcmillersean/billboard-hot-100-1958-2017">from the early 1940s to 2020</a> and Spotify data related to over 600,000 tracks and over one million artists.</p> <p>Interestingly, we found no substantial correlations between the number of weeks a song remained on the charts, as a measure of popularity, and the acoustic features included in the study.</p> <p>Our analysis determined that newer songs tend to last longer on the charts and that a song’s popularity affects how long it stays on the charts. </p> <p>In a related study, researchers collected data for Billboard’s Hot 100 from 1958 to 2013 and found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13734-6_36">songs with a higher tempo and danceability often get a higher peak position on the Billboard charts</a>. </p> <h2>Predicting Spotify song popularity</h2> <p>We also used the songs’ features to generate machine learning models to predict Spotify song popularity. Preliminary results concluded that features are not linearly correlated, with some expected exceptions including songs’ energy. </p> <p>This indicated that the Spotify metrics we studied — including acousticness, danceability, duration, energy, explicitness, instrumentalness, liveness, speechiness (a measure of the presence of spoken words in a song), tempo and release year — were not strong predictors of the song’s popularity.</p> <p>The majority of songs in the Spotify dataset were not listed as explicit, tended to have low instrumentalness and speechiness, and were typically recent songs. </p> <p>Although one may think that some features that are innate to certain songs make them more popular, our study revealed that popularity can not be attributed solely to quantifiable acoustic elements. </p> <p>This means that song makers and consumers must consider other contextual factors beyond the musical features, as captured by Spotify’s measurables, that may contribute to the song’s success. </p> <h2>Elements affecting popularity shift</h2> <p>Our study reinforces that elements affecting the popularity of songs change over time and should be continuously explored. </p> <p>For example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098%2Frsos.171274">in songs produced between 1985 and 2015 in the United Kingdom, songs produced by female artists were more successful</a>.</p> <p>Other aspects may substantially contribute to the success of a song. Data scientists have proposed <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244576">simplicity of the lyrics</a>, the advertising and <a href="https://www.ipr.edu/blogs/audio-production/what-are-the-elements-of-popular-music/">distribution plans</a> as potential predictors of songs’ popularity.</p> <h2>Attached listeners</h2> <p>Many musicians and producers make use of popular events and marketing strategies to advertise songs. Such events create social engagements and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2018.02682">audience involvement</a> which attaches the listener to the song being performed. </p> <p>For the public, <a href="https://www.osheaga.com/en">live music events</a>, following long lockdowns, have been opportune for reuniting friends, and <a href="https://ottawabluesfest.ca/">enjoying live artistry and</a> entertainment.</p> <p>While attending a music event or listening to a song, we invite you to reflect on what it is about the song that makes you enjoy it.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This arctic originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-big-data-really-predict-what-makes-a-song-popular-189052" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>

Music

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Your eyes could predict your risk of heart disease

<p dir="ltr">As well as being windows to the soul, <a href="https://www.oversixty.com.au/health/body/could-an-eye-test-predict-your-risk-of-heart-disease" target="_blank" rel="noopener">your eyes</a> could indicate your risk of developing heart disease according to new research.</p> <p dir="ltr">Scientists have developed imaging powered by Artificial Intelligence (AI) that can predict cardiovascular disease and death just by looking at the network of veins and arteries in your retina.</p> <p dir="ltr">Their findings could pave the way for a non-invasive and highly effective test that could replace the blood tests and blood pressure measurements currently used.</p> <p dir="ltr">With previous studies finding that the width of the tiny veins and arteries in the retina may be an accurate, early indicator for circulatory diseases including heart disease, cardiovascular disease, stroke, and heart failure.</p> <p dir="ltr">But, it was unclear whether these findings apply to both men and women, prompting the researchers to develop an AI-enabled algorithm called QUARTZ (QUantitative Analysis of Retinal vessels Topology and siZe) to develop models for assessing whether combining imaging of the retina with known risk factors could predict vascular health and death.</p> <p dir="ltr">They then applied models the algorithm created to retinal images of 88,052 people that are stored in the UK’s BioBank, as well as 7411 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study, which tracked the health of participants for seven to nine years.</p> <p dir="ltr">The predictive model used known risk factors, including smoking, medical history, and age and was able to identify two-thirds of the participants who later died of circulatory disease who were most at risk.</p> <p dir="ltr">With retinal imaging already being common practice in the UK and US, the researchers argue that using changes to the retina and AI has the potential to reach a greater portion of the population than current testing methods.</p> <p dir="ltr">“[Retinal vasculature]is a microvascular marker, hence offers better prediction for circulatory mortality and stroke compared with [heart attack] which is more macrovascular, except perhaps in women,” they write.</p> <p dir="ltr">“In the general population it could be used as a non-contact form of systemic vascular health check, to triage those at medium-high risk of circulatory mortality for further clinical risk assessment and appropriate intervention.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Drs Ify Mordi and Emanuele Trucco of Scotland’s University of Dundee wrote in <a href="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2022/09/12/bjo-2022-322517" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a separate editorial</a> that using changes to the retina to inform overall cardiovascular risk is “certainly attractive and intuitive” but is yet to form part of clinical practice.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Using retinal screening in this way would presumably require a significant increase in the number of ophthalmologists or otherwise trained assessors,” they write.</p> <p dir="ltr">“What is now needed is for ophthalmologists, cardiologists, primary care physicians and computer scientists to work together to design studies to determine whether using this information improves clinical outcome, and, if so, to work with regulatory bodies, scientific societies and healthcare systems to optimise clinical workflows and enable practical implementation in routine practice.”</p> <p dir="ltr">The study was published in the <em><a href="https://bjo.bmj.com/content/early/2022/08/23/bjo-2022-321842" target="_blank" rel="noopener">British Journal of Ophthalmology</a></em>.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-0bda2897-7fff-22ea-56e7-d43631ebe839"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Caring

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Leo DiCaprio scolded by fans after "predictable" split with model girlfriend

<p>Leonard DiCaprio fans everywhere are having the last laugh as the famed actor has ended his four-year relationship with model girlfriend Camilla Morrone.</p> <p>Having a track record of exclusively dating women under 25, the 47-year-old ended his relationship quietly, earlier this summer, according to a source close to the couple.</p> <p>DiCaprio and Morrone began dating in 2017 when she was 20 years old, making their awards show debut at the 2020 Oscars.</p> <p>Morrone at the time defended their 23-year age difference, telling the Los Angeles Times in 2019, “There’s so many relationships in Hollywood — and in the history of the world — where people have large age gaps. I just think anyone should be able to date who they want to date.”</p> <p>This recent widely publicised breakup has only reinforced predictions made that the relationship wouldn't last much longer, after Camilla celebrated her 25th birthday in early June.</p> <p>Of course the breakup sent social media into a frenzy as fans couldn’t wait to post jokes about the couple's "doomed" relationship.</p> <p>One fan tweeted: "3 things are certain in life: - death, - taxes, - Leonardo Dicaprio breaking up with his girlfriend before her pre-frontal cortex has fully developed."</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">3 things are certain in life:<br />- death<br />- taxes<br />- leonardo dicaprio breaking up with his girlfriend before her pre-frontal cortex has fully developed <a href="https://t.co/5bw3uLWlQ3">https://t.co/5bw3uLWlQ3</a></p> <p>— Erin Brockobić (@erinbrockobic) <a href="https://twitter.com/erinbrockobic/status/1564744270950633472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 30, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>"Leonardo DiCaprio is actually dating all the under-25s he possibly can to spread the word about climate change to those who will be the most impacted," another user joked.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">leonardo dicaprio is actually dating all the under-25s he possibly can to spread the word about climate change to those who will be the most impacted</p> <p>— flamin nora (@katierpacker) <a href="https://twitter.com/katierpacker/status/1564888223205269505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 31, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>A third added: "there's no phenomenon on this planet more reliable than leonardo dicaprio breaking up with his girl by age 25, the stats are breathtaking".</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">there's no phenomenon on this planet more reliable than leonardo dicaprio breaking up with his girl by age 25, the stats are breathtaking <a href="https://t.co/A9czRJo56Q">https://t.co/A9czRJo56Q</a></p> <p>— no (@zedonarrival) <a href="https://twitter.com/zedonarrival/status/1564730774485704704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 30, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, others have tried to figure out how DiCaprio might have ended the romance as one stated: "i need to know how leonardo dicaprio conducts these breakups. does he start picking fights months before they turn 25 to be less conspicuous?"</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">i need to know how leonardo dicaprio conducts these breakups. does he start picking fights months before they turn 25 to be less conspicuous? do they wake up on their birthday to a note that says “sorry i can’t don’t hate me” someone pls investigate</p> <p>— megan (@weganmilliamson) <a href="https://twitter.com/weganmilliamson/status/1564756315276279808?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 30, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>Other A-list women DiCaprio has dated who were 25 or younger at the time of their relationships include Kate Moss, Helena Christensen, Naomi Campbell, Bar Refaeli, Nina Agdal and Gisele Bündchen, who he dated for six years.</p> <p>What a complete Morrone!</p> <p><em>Image: Twitter</em></p>

Relationships

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Chilling note reveals Princess Diana may have predicted her fatal car crash

<p>Two years before the car crash that claimed the life of Princess Diana, the royal predicted she would "either end up dead or be seriously injured" in a car accident that "could be staged".</p> <p>The eerie revelation, which became known as the "Mishcon Note", is discussed in detail in the upcoming docuseries, <em>The Diana Investigations</em>, of which<em> </em><a href="https://pagesix.com/2022/08/17/princess-diana-predicted-fatal-car-crash-in-chilling-note/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>The Daily Beast</em> </a>obtained a preview.</p> <p>In October 1995, Diana requested a private meeting with her personal legal adviser, Victor Mishcon, allegedly to “tell him about something that was on her mind.”</p> <p>Mishcon took diligent notes during their conversation, in which Diana allegedly said “reliable sources,” whom she refused to name, had informed her “that a car accident might be staged.”</p> <p>Diana apparently predicted she would “either end up dead or be seriously injured.”</p> <p>Two years later, in August 1997, Diana died after her driver Henri Paul slammed their Mercedes into a pillar at 104km/h in Paris’ Pont de l’Alma tunnel.</p> <p>Paul was under the influence of alcohol and prescription drugs, but he was also trying to dodge the relentless paparazzi, who were trailing them on motorcycles.</p> <p>According to the experts in the docuseries, Mishcon gave the notes of his meeting with Diana to the London’s Metropolitan Police commissioner at the time, Sir Paul Condon.</p> <p>It wasn’t until after Condon’s successor, John Stevens, assumed the commissioner role that the public found out about the note, as Condon had locked it away in a safe.</p> <p>“When the coroner announced his inquest, I made sure that letter was immediately given to the royal coroner, who at that time was Michael Burgess and then subsequently became Lord Justice Scott Baker,” Lord Stevens told Daily Beast.</p> <p>“I saw Lord Mishcon about a month before he died, in about the spring of 2005, and he held course to the fact that he thought [Diana] was paranoid, and he hadn’t held much credence to [the note].”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p>

TV

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Could an eye test predict your risk of heart disease?

<p dir="ltr">A team of scientists believe a routine eye test, combined with genetic information, could accurately predict an individual’s risk of coronary artery disease and its potential outcome, heart attacks.</p> <p dir="ltr">The researchers examined the patterns of blood vessels in the retina using data from the UK Biobank (UKB), which includes demographic, epidemiological, clinical and genetic data from 500,000 UK participants.</p> <p dir="ltr">They found that simpler patterns were related to coronary heart disease (CAD) and myocardial infarctions (MI), also known as heart attacks, and developed a model that they say is able to predict an individual’s risk of MI based on multiple factors, including images of their eyes.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Strikingly, we discovered that our model was able to better classify participants with low or high MI risk in UKB when compared with established models that only include demographic data. The improvement of our model was even higher if we added a score related to the genetic propensity of developing MI,” Ana Villaplana-Velasco, a PhD student at the University of UK, <a href="https://www.scimex.org/newsfeed/the-eyes-could-be-a-window-into-our-heart-risk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a>.</p> <p dir="ltr">The team also found that several regions of our genes drive branching of vessels in the eye - four of which are also involved in cardiovascular disease genetics.</p> <p dir="ltr">“In particular, we found that these common genetic regions are involved in processes related to MI severity and recovery,” Ms Villaplana-Velasco says.</p> <p dir="ltr">They also believe their findings could be useful for identifying risk of other diseases, with retinal vascular patterns potentially reflecting the development of diseases such as diabetic retinopathy and stroke.</p> <p dir="ltr">“We would like to investigate this further, as well as undertaking a sex-specific analysis. We know that females with a higher MI or CAD risk tend to have pronounced retinal vascular deviations when compared to the male population. We would like to repeat our analysis separately in males and females to investigate if a sex-specific model for MI completes a better risk classification,” Ms Villaplana-Velasco says.</p> <p dir="ltr">With the average age for an MI being 60, the team found that their model was most accurate at predicting risk more than five years before a person experiences an MI.</p> <p dir="ltr">”So the calculation of an individualised MI risk from those over 50 years old would seem to be appropriate,” says Ms Villaplan-Velasco. </p> <p dir="ltr">”This would enable doctors to suggest behaviours that could reduce risk, such as giving up smoking and maintaining normal cholesterol and blood pressure. Our work once more shows the importance of comprehensive analysis of data that is routinely collected and its value in the further development of personalised medicine.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Their findings were presented at the annual conference of the European Society of Human Genetics.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-13006207-7fff-b231-9d8b-e98d61b23d08"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Body

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Alan Jones’ surprising election prediction

<p dir="ltr">Alan Jones has made a surprising assessment of Labor leader Anthony Albanese and which way the upcoming election could go as he prepares to return to the airwaves via his resurrected digital TV show.</p> <p dir="ltr">The controversial broadcaster spoke to <em><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/alan-jones-election-comeback-there-will-be-no-walking-on-eggshells-20220427-p5ageb.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Sydney Morning Herald</a></em> ahead of the relaunch of his digital show, <em>Alan Jones</em>, following his recovery from 28 hours of surgery on his back across four operations this year.</p> <p dir="ltr">He told the publication that the contest between Mr Albanese and Scott Morrison has been “so campaign virtually of nothing” so far but that voters aren’t listening to Mr Morrison anymore.</p> <p dir="ltr">“He’s a very good campaigner, Morrison, and he can learn a script and he can nail the issues. The question is: are people listening?” the former Sky News host said.</p> <p dir="ltr">Having been relatively unknown to voters and given a go at the last election, Jones said Mr Morrison’s stint as Prime Minister has made him more well-known - and not in a favourable way.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Now there are many people saying, ‘Well, we do know him, and we’re a little concerned about what we know’.”</p> <p dir="ltr">As for Mr Albanese, Mr Jones said Labor hadn’t put its best foot forward by choosing him.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Albo’s Albo. Nice bloke to meet at the pub, but you can’t quite imagine him being your international representative,” the 81-year-old told the publication.</p> <p dir="ltr">But, he added that Mr Albanese does resonate with those “who’ve got no money in the till” when he “talks all this compassion stuff” and touches on issues of aged care, cost of living, and childcare.</p> <p dir="ltr">“It’s nice to write headlines about Albanese messing up, not knowing the unemployment figures and missing the gotcha questions,” he continued.</p> <p dir="ltr">“But it does appear that many people have made up their minds because the needle isn’t moving.”</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-3602d0c3-7fff-ff3f-482a-47c0ca146516"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Alan Jones (Facebook)</em></p>

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