"Rare" weather alert threatening Australia
Southern Australia may be in the midst of a heatwave right now, but experts are warning the warm, sunny conditions won’t last much longer.
The Bureau of Meteorology has upped its prediction of a “rare” form of La Niña (which usually occurs in Autumn or winter) to “alert”, revealing there’s now about a 70 per cent chance (triple the normal chance) of La Niña this year.
What does that mean for you? Well, we could be in for a cooler summer than usual, and we’re likely to start feeling the effects as soon as next month. However, BOM believe this year’s weather event will probably be weaker and shorter than the La Niña that brought devastating floods to Australia between 2010 and 2012.
Despite this, it seems unlikely that the country would experience the same heavy rainfall. “The climate outlook for this summer is, if anything, leaning slightly towards the dry side despite the likelihood of a weak La Nina,” BOM senior climatologist Dr Blair Trewin told the ABC.
Sea temperature levels are likely to feel the impact, however, with surface temperatures dipping to -0.8C below the average 1961 to 1991 levels – the Australian threshold for a La Niña.
“Oceanic indicators of ENSO [El Niño Southern Oscillation] show a clear progression towards La Niña,” the Bureau explained in a statement on their website. “Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled since late winter, and waters beneath the surface remain cooler than average in the eastern Pacific. However, they are currently just shy of La Niña thresholds.”