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Climate scientist warns a deadly bushfire season is "likely"

<p>An early climate model has suggested a hot and dry El Niño could form once La Niña - the event responsible for three years of flooding rains - comes to a slow close.</p> <p>Should this be on the horizon, a summer of drought, heatwaves and bushfires are all but certain according to a climate expert.</p> <p>The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released its latest climate driver update on Thursday, stating ocean temperatures "remain warmer than average in the western Pacific".</p> <p>Models indicate sea-surface temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds in the equatorial Pacific by June.</p> <p>Dr Wenju Cai, a climate scientist with the CSIRO, said an El Niño is "likely" to form.</p> <p>"We have been through three years of La Niña, during each of which heat is stored in the equatorial Pacific," he told 9News.com.au.</p> <p>"With so much heat charged in the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño is readily triggered by relaxation of the trade winds over the region."</p> <p>"(The) majority of prediction models are predicting an El Niño by the summer.”</p> <p>After extreme wet weather conditions and soaking rains, Cai holds fears for the next bushfire season - warning it could recall the grim scenes of Black Summer of 2019 and early 2020.</p> <p>The World Health Organisation (WHO) says heatwaves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards.</p> <p>Cai said Australia should know for certain what the summer will hold by June.</p> <p>"Between March and May, predictability is low as this is a period in which there is high noise, the so-called autumn predictability barrier," he said.</p> <p>One thing is for certain though, La Niña is drawing to a close.</p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

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Rug up: Severe weather warning across Australia as winter polar blast hits

<p>With strong winds up to 130km/h, thunderstorms and hail set to hit Victoria due to a polar blast, the SES is urging people to act with extreme caution.</p> <p>Melbourne’s south-east suburbs have been hit with winds up to 80km/h, with harsher winds expected over the weekend.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"> <p dir="ltr">Victoria is bracing for strong winds, hail, and thunderstorms as a polar blast sweeps through the country's south east. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/9Today?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#9Today</a> <a href="https://t.co/VwLtxE7DLg">pic.twitter.com/VwLtxE7DLg</a></p> — The Today Show (@TheTodayShow) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheTodayShow/status/1159552003690729472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">8 August 2019</a></blockquote> <p>The SES has warned residents to be careful after a tree fell into a house at Frankston overnight.</p> <p>"It's now the time to secure things around your home, whether it's trampolines or outdoor furniture and if you’re in a high-rise building, secure anything you have on your veranda," a spokesman told <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/weather-forecast-victoria-to-be-hit-as-polar-blast-smashes-south-east-australia/ece22f0b-6190-4d65-a80c-1e2f6a5835df" target="_blank">9News</a>.</p> <p>"More particularly we’re telling people to take particular caution while on the roads."</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"> <p dir="ltr">With an almighty roar, the entire roof has just blown away at work in Silvan <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/storms?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#storms</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/polarblast?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#polarblast</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vicemergency?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@vicemergency</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/7NewsMelbourne?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@7NewsMelbourne</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/9NewsMelb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@9NewsMelb</a> <a href="https://t.co/y1lIZRiNUQ">pic.twitter.com/y1lIZRiNUQ</a></p> — Kristin (@Kristin542) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kristin542/status/1159604943713533953?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">8 August 2019</a></blockquote> <p>A severe weather warning remains in place for southern parts of the South West and Central districts of Victoria, including the south-eastern suburbs of Melbourne, the Mornington Peninsula and the west Gippsland coast.</p> <p>"Winds are expected to ease over western and central areas this morning – and over the east this afternoon – although there may still be some strong squalls with passing shower," explained the BoM.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en-gb"> <p dir="ltr">The Severe Weather Warning has been updated with damaging winds currently being observed over the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SnowyMountains?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SnowyMountains</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Illawarra?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Illawarra</a>. Gusty winds will continue to build over <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Sydney?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Sydney</a> and the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hunter?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Hunter</a> after mid-morning. <a href="https://t.co/Ss766eSCrL">https://t.co/Ss766eSCrL</a> <a href="https://t.co/Bp6ZL7P0h8">pic.twitter.com/Bp6ZL7P0h8</a></p> — Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) <a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_NSW/status/1159550153755385856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">8 August 2019</a></blockquote> <p>Weather warnings are also in place for NSW and the ACT as the cold blast is expected to move east. It’ll bring rain, thunder, hail and damaging winds along with it, with peak gusts expected to be more than 90km/h.</p> <p>A severe weather warning is in place for the Southern Tablelands, Snowy Mountains, Illawarra, Southern Coastal Ranges, ACT, eastern parts of the Central Tablelands, the Sydney Metropolitan area, Hunter and parts of the northern ranges.</p> <p>Blizzards are predicted for Alpine areas above 1500 metres, with the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service recommending back country travelling be postponed until conditions improve.</p> <p>For avid skiers, Perisher has seen more snowfalls overnight as the cold front continues to move over the resort.</p> <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/B06sD33nfIR/" data-instgrm-version="12"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <p style="margin: 8px 0 0 0; padding: 0 4px;"><a style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/B06sD33nfIR/" target="_blank">The heavy machinery is out for snow clearing this morning! 👷🏽‍♂️👷🏼‍♀️</a></p> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by <a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/perisher_resort/" target="_blank"> Perisher</a> (@perisher_resort) on Aug 8, 2019 at 2:01pm PDT</p> </div> </blockquote> <p>Over half a metre of fresh snow has fallen at the ski resort, with more predicted over today and tomorrow.</p>

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Grab your winter woolies: The coldest and wettest day of the year is here

<p>The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that temperatures are looking to drop by up to 10 degrees as a cold front makes its way over the country.</p> <p>The weather system is bringing cold as well as windy conditions from the Southern Ocean, with Melbourne set to face its coldest and wettest day of the year.</p> <p>Some suburbs in Melbourne are going to get up to 30mm of rain.</p> <p>The bureau issued a road weather alert for reduced visibility in Melbourne.</p> <p>“Heavy rain will make road conditions dangerous during Friday in the inner, western, northern, eastern and southeastern suburbs,” the weather service said.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> <p dir="ltr">Weather Update: Cold front, showers and storms moving over southeastern Australia. Video current 11.30 am AEST, Thu. 9 May. Check <a href="https://t.co/4W35o8zIoh">https://t.co/4W35o8zIoh</a> for forecasts and warnings; follow advice from emergency services. <a href="https://twitter.com/ABCemergency?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ABCemergency</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/SA_SES?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@SA_SES</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vicsesnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@VicSESnews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/tasalert?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@TasAlert</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NSWSES?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NSWSES</a> <a href="https://t.co/NF0vsJ7Km0">pic.twitter.com/NF0vsJ7Km0</a></p> — Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) <a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1126326269711224832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <p>Melbourne isn’t the only one to feel the chill, as New South Wales is looking to be hit, especially in the west.</p> <p>The west is set to see the first significant cold front of the season, which will be unusual due to an unseasonably warm winter.</p> <p>Snow showers are also expected in the Southern Tablelands and alpine areas. The temperature in Thredbo dove down to -17.4 degrees overnight due to the cold snap.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> <p dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Snow?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Snow</a> expected down to 1100m Friday am on S. Tablelands, Alps, Brindabella Ranges. Light snow also likely on some elevated W. areas of the Central Tablelands Friday pm. Wind chill will make much of NSW (incl. Sydney) feel 5–10°C cooler than actual temp. <a href="https://t.co/vJsSEfmFiO">https://t.co/vJsSEfmFiO</a></p> — Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) <a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_NSW/status/1126354009789534208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <p>The temperature also dropped to 11.6 degrees in Sydney and an icy 6.5 degrees in Melbourne overnight. This is a harsh contrast for Melbourne, as the temperature peaked at 42.8 degrees just weeks ago.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> <p dir="ltr">Feeling cold across inland <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NSW?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NSW</a> compared to last week?<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bathurst?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bathurst</a> min temp 3rd May 13.5C, last night was minus 1.2C<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cobar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cobar</a> min temp 3rd May 17.7C, last night 7.2C<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dubbo?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Dubbo</a> min temp 3rd May 17.2C, last night 1.8C<br />23 days till <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/winter?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#winter</a><br />More at <a href="https://t.co/QM7XJrpUqk">https://t.co/QM7XJrpUqk</a></p> — Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) <a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_NSW/status/1126278465169362944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <p>Minimum temperatures are expected to drop as the nation approaches winter, but the bureau is expecting that the 2019 season will be warmer than average.</p>

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