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Australia tops life expectancy among English-speaking nations

<p>A recent study has revealed that Australians outlive their peers in five other high-income English-speaking countries, including the UK and US, by one to four years. </p> <p>The paper published in the medical journal<em> BMJ Open</em> last month, analysed the average life expectancies in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States between 1990 and 2019. </p> <p>They found that Australians' life expectancy surpassed that of Canadians in the early 1990s - and it has remained in the top spot ever since. </p> <p>The average life expectancy for an Australian born in 2019 was 83.24 years, which is two years longer than the average Brit, and four years longer than the average American. </p> <p>"Australia is clearly the best-performing Anglophone country," the paper said.</p> <p>"While Australian men and women have lower mortality at nearly all ages, their mortality advantage at ages 45–84 accounts for the bulk of Australia's life expectancy advantage."</p> <p>The Irish came in second with an life expectancy of 82.39 years, followed by the Canadians with 82.28, and the Kiwis with 81.83.</p> <p>Australia's long life expectancy could be credited to it's high migrant population and low death rates from drug and alcohol misuse, screenable/treatable cancers, and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. </p> <p>The nation's "strong public health efforts", such as the 1996 gun law reforms and buyback programs following the Port Arthur massacre, and the creation of Headspace, the national youth mental healthcare service, could also play part in our longevity. </p> <p>Australia also had the lowest level of "geographic inequality", meaning that the gap in life expectancy between rich and poor regions was narrower than other countries. </p> <p>However, the life expectancy for  Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people continues to be significantly lower than the average Australian, with males born between  2020 and 2022 expected to live for just 71.9 years, and females for 75.6 years. </p> <p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

Caring

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I’m due for a cervical cancer screening. What can I expect? Can I do it myself? And what happened to Pap smears?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/karen-canfell-22668">Karen Canfell</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-bateson-16105">Deborah Bateson</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/megan-smith-131901">Megan Smith</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p>Cervical screening in Australia has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34499374/">changed</a> over the past seven years. The test has changed, and women (and people with a cervix) now have much more choice and control. Here’s why – and what you can expect if you’re aged 25 to 74 and are <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/national-cervical-screening-program">due for a test</a>.</p> <h2>When and why did the test change?</h2> <p>In 2017, Australia became one of the first two countries to transition from Pap smears to tests for the presence of the human papillomavirus (HPV).</p> <p>HPV causes virtually all cervical cancers, so testing for the presence of this virus is a very good indicator of a person’s current and future risk of the disease.</p> <p>This contrasts with the older Pap smear technology, which involved inspection of cells every two years for the changes resulting from HPV infection.</p> <p>The change to screening was supported by a very large body of <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(13)62218-7/abstract">international</a> and <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002388">Australian</a> data showing primary testing for HPV is more accurate than Pap smears.</p> <p>Women and people with a cervix who do not have HPV detected on their test are at a very low risk of developing cervical cancer over the next five years, or even longer. This was the basis for lengthening the screening interval when HPV screening was introduced.</p> <p>Australia now <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/national-cervical-screening-program">recommends</a> five-yearly HPV screening, starting at age 25 up to the age of 74 for eligible people, whether or not they have been vaccinated against HPV. Many other countries are following suit to transition to HPV screening.</p> <p>All established screening tests – which are conducted in people without any symptoms – are associated with health benefits but also with some harms. These can include the psychological and clinical consequences of receiving a “positive” screening result, which needs to be investigated further.</p> <p>However, recent World Health Organization (WHO) <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2030640">reviews of the evidence</a> have found:</p> <ul> <li>HPV is a more effective screening test than Pap smears or any other method</li> <li>it substantially reduces incidence and death rates from cervical cancer</li> <li>it is the method of cervical screening that has the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02600-4">best balance</a> of benefits to harms.</li> </ul> <p>As a consequence, the WHO now unequivocally <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240030824">recommends</a> HPV screening as the best-practice method.</p> <h2>Now you can collect your own sample</h2> <p>One of the major benefits of switching to HPV screening is it opened the door for a person being able to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/self-collection-for-the-cervical-screening-test">collect their own sample</a> (which was impossible with the Pap smear). If HPV is present, it can be detected in the vagina rather than having to directly sample the cervix.</p> <p>In 2022, Australia became one of the <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/ministers/the-hon-greg-hunt-mp/media/landmark-changes-improving-access-to-life-saving-cervical-screenings">first countries</a> in the world to introduce a universal option to choose self-collection within a major national-level screening program. This means people eligible for screening, under the guidance of a primary care practitioner, can now choose to collect their own vaginal sample, in privacy, using a simple swab.</p> <p>By the end of 2023, <a href="https://www.ncsr.gov.au/about-us/news-and-media/self-collection-for-cervical-screening--at-an-all-time-high.html">27% of people</a> were choosing to take the test this way, but this is on an upward trajectory and is likely to increase further, with an <a href="https://acpcc.org.au/self-collection-campaign/">awareness campaign</a> due to start next month.</p> <h2>So what happens when I have a test?</h2> <p>You’ll receive an invitation from the <a href="https://www.ncsr.gov.au/information-for-participants/participant-forms-and-guides.html#cervical-forms">National Cancer Screening Register</a> to attend your first screen when you turn 25. If you’re older, you’ll receive reminders when you are due for your next test. You will be invited to visit your GP or community health service for the test.</p> <p>You should be asked whether you would prefer to have a clinician collect the test or whether you would prefer to take the sample yourself.</p> <p>There’s no right or wrong way. The accuracy of testing has been <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/363/bmj.k4823">shown</a> to be equivalent for clinician or self-collected sampling. This is a matter of choice.</p> <p>If the clinician does the test, they will undertake a pelvic examination with a speculum inserted into the vagina. This enables the doctor or nurse to view the cervix and take a sample.</p> <p>If you are interested in the self-collection option, check whether the practice is offering it when making an appointment.</p> <p>If you opt for self-collection, you’ll be able to do so in private. You’ll be given a swab (which looks like a COVID test swab with a longer stem), and you’ll be given instructions about how to insert and rotate the swab in the vagina to take the sample. It takes only a few minutes.</p> <h2>What does it mean if my test detects HPV?</h2> <p>If your test detects HPV, this means you have an HPV infection. These are very common and by itself doesn’t mean you have cancer, or even pre-cancer (which involves changes to cervical cells that make them more likely to develop into cancer over time).</p> <p>It does mean, however, that you are at higher risk of having a pre-cancer, or developing one in future, and that you will benefit from further follow-up or diagnostic testing. Your doctor or nurse will <a href="https://www.cancer.org.au/clinical-guidelines/cervical-cancer/cervical-cancer-screening">guide you</a> on the next steps in line with national guidelines.</p> <p>If you require a diagnostic examination, this will involve a procedure called colposcopy, where the cervix is closely examined by a gynaecologist or other specially trained healthcare practitioner, and a small sample may be taken for detailed examination of the cells.</p> <p>If you have a pre-cancer, you can be treated simply and quickly, usually without needing to be admitted to hospital. Treatment involves ablating or removing a small area of the cervix. This treatment will drastically reduce your risk of ever developing cervical cancer.</p> <h2>What does this mean for cervical cancer rates?</h2> <p>Cervical screening for HPV is a very effective method of preventing cervical cancer. Because of Australia’s HPV screening, combined with HPV vaccination in younger people, Australia is <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30183-X/fulltext">expected</a> to achieve such low rates of cervical cancer by 2035 that it will be considered eliminated.</p> <p>Last year, the government launched a <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/national-strategy-for-the-elimination-of-cervical-cancer-in-australia.pdf">national strategy for cervical cancer elimination</a> which provides key recommendations for eliminating cervical cancer, and for doing so equitably in all groups of women and people with a cervix.</p> <p>One of the best things you can do to protect yourself is to have your cervical screening test when you become eligible, whether or not you have been vaccinated against HPV.</p> <p><em>Marion Saville, a pathologist and Executive Director at the Australian Centre for the Prevention of Cervical Cancer, co-authored this article.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/229495/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/karen-canfell-22668"><em>Karen Canfell</em></a><em>, Professor &amp; Director, Daffodil Centre, A Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/deborah-bateson-16105">Deborah Bateson</a>, Professor of Practice, The Daffodil Centre, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/megan-smith-131901">Megan Smith</a>, Principal Research Fellow, The Daffodil Centre, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-sydney-841">University of Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/im-due-for-a-cervical-cancer-screening-what-can-i-expect-can-i-do-it-myself-and-what-happened-to-pap-smears-229495">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Thinking about trying physiotherapy for endometriosis pain? Here’s what to expect

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-stubbs-1531259">Peter Stubbs</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caroline-wanderley-souto-ferreira-1563754">Caroline Wanderley Souto Ferreira</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></p> <p>Endometriosis is a condition that affects women and girls. It occurs when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus ends up in other areas of the body. These areas <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/endometriosis/symptoms-causes/syc-20354656">include</a> the ovaries, bladder, bowel and digestive tract.</p> <p>Endometriosis will <a href="https://endometriosisaustralia.org/understanding-endometriosis/">affect</a> nearly one million Australian women and girls in their lifetime. Many high-profile Australians are affected by endometriosis including <a href="https://www.endofound.org/bindi-irwin-shares-her-endometriosis-story-in-detail-as-she-prepares-to-receive-endofounds-blossom-a">Bindi Irwin</a>, <a href="https://www.endofound.org/actress-sophie-monk-reveals-endometriosis-diagnosis">Sophie Monk</a> and former Yellow Wiggle, <a href="https://endometriosisaustralia.org/emma-watkins-ambassador/">Emma Watkins</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867421005766">Symptoms</a> of endometriosis include intense pelvic, abdominal or low back pain (that is often worse during menstruation), bladder and bowel problems, pain during sex and infertility.</p> <p>But women and girls wait an average of <a href="https://www.epworth.org.au/newsroom/reducing-time-to-an-endometriosis-diagnosis">seven years to receive a diagnosis</a>. Many are living with the burden of endometriosis and not receiving treatments that could improve their quality of life. This includes physiotherapy.</p> <h2>How is endometriosis treated?</h2> <p>No treatments cure endometriosis. Symptoms can be reduced by taking <a href="https://www.nichd.nih.gov/health/topics/endometri/conditioninfo/treatment">medications</a> such as non-steriodal anti-inflammatories (ibuprofen, aspirin or naproxen) and hormonal medicines.</p> <p>Surgery is sometimes used to diagnose endometriosis, remove endometrial lesions, reduce pain and improve fertility. But these lesions can <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39098538/">grow back</a>.</p> <p>Whether they take medication or have surgery, many women and girls continue to experience pain and other symptoms.</p> <p>Pelvic health physiotherapy is <a href="https://australian.physio/inmotion/physiotherapists-can-help-endometriosis">often recommended</a> as a non-drug management technique to manage endometriosis pain, <a href="https://www1.racgp.org.au/ajgp/2024/january-february/endometriosis">in consultation</a> with a gynaecologist or general practitioner.</p> <p>The goal of physiotherapy treatment depends on the symptoms but is usually to reduce and manage pain, improve ability to do activities, and ultimately improve quality of life.</p> <h2>What could you expect from your first appointment?</h2> <p>Physiotherapy management can differ based on the severity and location of symptoms. Prior to physical tests and treatments, your physiotherapist will comprehensively explain what is going to happen and seek your permission.</p> <p>They will ask questions to better understand your case and specific needs. These will include your age, weight, height as well as the presence, location and intensity of symptoms.</p> <p>You will also be asked about the history of your period pain, your first period, the length of your menstrual cycle, urinary and bowel symptoms, sexual function and details of any previous treatments and tests.</p> <p>They may also assess your posture and movement to see how your muscles have changed because of the related symptoms.</p> <p>They will press on your lower back and pelvic muscles to spot painful areas (trigger points) and muscle tightness.</p> <p>If you consent to a vaginal examination, the physiotherapist will use one to two gloved fingers to assess the area inside and around your vagina. They will also test your ability to coordinate, contract and relax your pelvic muscles.</p> <h2>What type of treatments could you receive?</h2> <p>Depending on your symptoms, your physiotherapist may use the following treatments:</p> <p><strong>General education</strong></p> <p>Your physiotherapist will give your details about the disease, pelvic floor anatomy, the types of treatment and how these can improve pain and other symptoms. They might <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38452219/">teach you about</a> the changes to the brain and nerves as a result of being in long-term pain.</p> <p>They will provide guidance to improve your ability to perform daily activities, including getting quality sleep.</p> <p>If you experience pain during sex or difficulty using tampons, they may teach you how to use vaginal dilators to improve flexibility of those muscles.</p> <p><strong>Pelvic muscle exercises</strong></p> <p>Pelvic muscles often contract too hard as a result of pain. <a href="https://www.physio-pedia.com/Pelvic_Floor_Exercises">Pelvic floor exercises</a> will help you contract and relax muscles appropriately and provide an awareness of how hard muscles are contracting.</p> <p>This can be combined with machines that <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7843943/">monitor muscle activity or vaginal pressure</a> to provide detailed information on how the muscles are working.</p> <p><strong>Yoga, stretching and low-impact exercises</strong></p> <p><a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27869485/">Yoga</a>, <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37467936/">stretching and low impact aerobic exercise</a> can improve fitness, flexibility, pain and blood circulation. These have <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28369946/">general pain-relieving properties</a> and can be a great way to contract and relax bigger muscles affected by long-term endometriosis.</p> <p>These exercises can help you regain function and control with a gradual progression to perform daily activities with reduced pain.</p> <p><strong>Hydrotherapy (physiotherapy in warm water)</strong></p> <p>Performing exercises in water improves blood circulation and muscle relaxation due to the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4049052/">pressure and warmth of the water</a>. Hydrotherapy allows you to perform aerobic exercise with low impact, which will reduce pain while exercising.</p> <p>However, while hydrotherapy shows positive results clinically, scientific studies to show its effectiveness studies <a href="https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?ACTRN=12619001611112">are ongoing</a>.</p> <p><strong>Manual therapy</strong></p> <p>Women frequently have small areas of muscle that are tight and painful (trigger points) inside and outside the vagina. Pain can be temporarily reduced by <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37176750/">pressing, massaging or putting heat on</a> the muscles.</p> <p>Physiotherapists can teach patients how to do these techniques by themselves at home.</p> <h2>What does the evidence say?</h2> <p>Overall, patients report <a href="https://www.wmhp.com.au/blog/endo-story">positive experiences</a> pelvic health physiotherapists treatments. In a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37176750/">study of 42 women</a>, 80% of those who received manual therapy had “much improved pain”.</p> <p>In studies investigating yoga, one study <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27869485/">showed</a> pain was reduced in 28 patients by an average of 30 points on a 100-point pain scale. Another study showed yoga was beneficial for pain in <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27552065/">all 15 patients</a>.</p> <p>But while some studies show this treatment <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36571475/">is effective</a>, a review <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9740037/">concluded</a> more studies were needed and the use of physiotherapy was “underestimated and underpublicised”.</p> <h2>What else do you need to know?</h2> <p>If you have or suspect you have endometriosis, consult your gynaecologist or GP. They may be able to suggest a pelvic health physiotherapist to help you manage your symptoms and improve quality of life.</p> <p>As endometriosis is a chronic condition you <a href="https://www9.health.gov.au/mbs/fullDisplay.cfm?type=item&amp;q=10960">may be entitled</a> to five subsidised or free sessions per calendar year in clinics that accept Medicare.</p> <p>If you go to a private pelvic health physiotherapist, you won’t need a referral from a gynaecologist or GP. Physiotherapy rebates can be available to those with private health insurance.</p> <p>The Australian Physiotherapy Association has a <a href="https://choose.physio/find-a-physio">Find a Physio</a> section where you can search for women’s and pelvic physiotherapists. <a href="https://endometriosisaustralia.org/">Endometriosis Australia</a> also provides assistance and advice to women with Endometriosis.</p> <p><em>Thanks to UTS Masters students Phoebe Walker and Kasey Collins, who are researching physiotherapy treatments for endometriosis, for their contribution to this article.</em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/236328/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-stubbs-1531259">Peter Stubbs</a>, Senior Lecturer in Physiotherapy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/caroline-wanderley-souto-ferreira-1563754">Caroline Wanderley Souto Ferreira</a>, Visiting Professor of Physiotherapy, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936">University of Technology Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/thinking-about-trying-physiotherapy-for-endometriosis-pain-heres-what-to-expect-236328">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a></em></p> <p>In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected.</p> <p>It’s important for scientists to better understand all weather processes at play, so we can manage expectations around what Australia might experience when climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are forecast in future. That’s where our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0112.1/MWR-D-23-0112.1.xml">new research</a> comes in.</p> <p>We examined the state of play in November 2020 and November 2021. La Niña conditions occurred in both years. November 2021 followed the La Niña script and was wet and cool, but November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. We set out to determine why.</p> <p>We found the differences could be explained by fluctuations in the path of storms over the Australian continent. These fluctuations can be hard to predict well in advance, which makes it difficult to say for certain how a particular La Niña or El Niño event will affect Australia.</p> <h2>A tale of two Novembers</h2> <p>For large parts of Australia, the presence of a La Niña or El Niño <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-an-el-nino-the-answer-might-surprise-you-198510">shifts the odds</a> of experiencing wet or dry conditions. Our analysis of Novembers 2020 and 2021 shows how actual outcomes can differ from, or align with, expectations.</p> <p>The first step in our analysis was to examine <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">other climate drivers</a>, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. We wanted to know if these drivers were in the same phase – negative, neutral or positive – during those two Novembers a year apart.</p> <p>So what did we find? In addition to La Nina, both Novembers occurred during positive Southern Annular Mode phases and very weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases. These phases are typically associated with more rainfall in Australia. So this didn’t explain why November 2020 was hot and dry.</p> <p>Next, we looked to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden Julian Oscillation</a>. When this driver is located in the Australian region, it has been linked to more rainfall in Australia. Although the oscillation was in different phases during November 2020 and 2021, we found in general, this driver does not strongly influence rainfall across all of Australia in November.</p> <p>It was time to look for answers elsewhere.</p> <h2>Jet streams: a key piece in the puzzle</h2> <p>Next, we examined weather systems – in other words, the movement of high and low pressure systems across the globe.</p> <p>These systems are partly controlled by jet streams, which are bands of wind in the upper atmosphere. The effect of jet streams on weather systems, including storms, means they influence rainfall in the regions they pass over.</p> <p>We found there was a strong jet stream over Australia in November 2021. This would have assisted the development of any rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving in from the west, allowing these systems to travel across the Australian continent. These systems brought rain and contributed to the very wet conditions.</p> <p>In November 2020, the jet stream was largely absent over Australia. Instead, it was pushed south of the continent, which means rainfall systems received little help and were also largely steered south. That contributed to the dry month.</p> <p>But why did the jet streams develop in the first place? They form in part due to temperature differences, and are found in the zones where the temperature contrast between warm and cool air is strongest.</p> <p>In November 2021, Australia experienced cooler temperatures over land, but above-average sea surface temperatures in the waters off northern Australia. This pattern set up the zone of strongest temperature contrasts over the continent, which led to a persistent jet stream there.</p> <p>In November 2020, Australia was relatively warm both over land and on the sea surface to the north. This meant that the strongest temperature contrasts (and the jet stream) now sat at the junction between the warm continent and cooler Southern Ocean.</p> <h2>But wait, there’s more</h2> <p>So why were temperatures over Australia so different?</p> <p>To help answer this question we shifted our analysis from the monthly timescale to the daily timescale. That’s because atmospheric features such as jet streams vary strongly from day to day.</p> <p>We found for about the first three weeks of November 2021, a large low-pressure system – also known as a trough – was sitting south of Australia. It pumped cold air onto the continent, cooling it down.</p> <p>This maximised the north-south temperature difference between the warm sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and the cool of the continent. And as we know, this aided the development of the jet stream over Australia.</p> <p>In November 2020, the continent started off relatively warm. And for a large portion of the month, there was a large high-pressure system over Australia, pulling warmer air from the tropics over the continent.</p> <p>This system would have also promoted clear skies over Australia and enhanced heating coming from the sun, contributing to the warm Australian continent in November 2020.</p> <h2>More puzzle pieces to fit</h2> <p>November 2020’s hot, dry conditions were not the only time a climate driver has failed to bring the conditions some had anticipated. Just last year El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened">did not deliver</a> expected dry conditions, leaving many people scratching their heads.</p> <p>Climate drivers play an important role in shaping rainfall. But they’re not the whole story. As our research shows, sometimes they are confounded by changes in weather patterns, which might mean that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out.</p> <p>When it comes to Australia’s climate puzzle, these findings show there’s more to understand about the role of weather.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, Senior Research Scientist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, Researcher, Oceans and Atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-climate-confusing-you-heres-why-rainfall-and-temperatures-dont-always-behave-as-expected-233345">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Domestic Travel

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Joe Biden has COVID. Here’s what someone over 80 can expect

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hassan-vally-202904">Hassan Vally</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em></p> <p>If US politics leading up to the 2024 presidential election was a Hollywood thriller, it would be a movie full of plot twists and surprises. The latest twist is President Joe Biden has <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/joe-biden-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html">COVID</a> and is isolating at home.</p> <p><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/">Biden’s doctor says</a> his symptoms are mild and include a runny nose, cough and generally feeling unwell. His temperature, oxygen levels and respiratory rate are said to be normal.</p> <p>Biden, who has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv2gj8314nqo">been diagnosed</a> with COVID twice before, <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/07/17/statement-from-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-3/">has received</a> his COVID vaccine and booster shots, and has taken the first dose of the antiviral drug Paxlovid.</p> <p>No doubt, Biden will be receiving the best of medical care. Yet, as much <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-joe-biden-experiencing-cognitive-decline-heres-why-we-shouldnt-speculate-234487">recent media coverage</a> reminds us, he is 81 years old.</p> <p>So let’s look at what it means for an 81-year-old man to have COVID in 2024. Of course, Biden is not just any man, but we’ll come to that later.</p> <h2>Luckily, it’s not 2020</h2> <p>If we were back in 2020, a COVID diagnosis at this age would have been a big deal.</p> <p>This was a time before COVID vaccines, before specific COVID treatments and before we knew as much about COVID as we do today. Back then, being over 80 and being infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus (the virus that causes COVID) represented a significant threat to your health.</p> <p>It was very clear early in the pandemic that your chances of getting severe disease and dying <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-older-people-more-at-risk-of-coronavirus-133770">increased with age</a>. The early data suggested that if you were over 80 and infected, you had about a 15% likelihood of dying from the illness.</p> <p>Also, if you did develop severe disease, we didn’t have a lot in the toolkit to deal with your infection.</p> <p>Remember, former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson <a href="https://theconversation.com/scott-morrison-has-covid-its-a-big-deal-but-not-how-you-think-178298">ended up in the ICU</a> with his COVID infection in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/boris-johnson-and-coronavirus-inside-story-illness">April 2020</a>, despite being 55 at the time. That’s a much younger age than Biden is now.</p> <p>Former US President Donald Trump also had what was understood to be a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/11/trump-coronavirus-ventilator-covid-illness">very severe case</a> of COVID in October 2020. He was 74 at the time.</p> <h2>How things have changed</h2> <p>So let’s wind the clock forward to 2024. A lot has happened in four years.</p> <p>COVID is still a disease that needs to be <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/changing-threat-covid-19.html">taken seriously</a>. And for some people with other health conditions (for instance, people with heart disease or diabetes) it poses more of a threat. And of course we know more about the well-publicised <a href="https://theconversation.com/i-have-covid-how-likely-am-i-to-get-long-covid-218808">longer term effects</a> of COVID.</p> <p>But the threat COVID poses to an individual is far less now than it has ever been.</p> <h2>More of us have some immunity</h2> <p>First, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/03/who-estimates-90-of-world-have-some-resistance-to-covid">most people</a> have some immunity to COVID now, whether this has come from vaccination or prior infection, and for many both.</p> <p>The fact that your immune system has had some exposure to the virus is transformative in how you respond to infection. Yes, there’s the ongoing problem of waning immunity over time and the virus mutating meaning you need to have regular booster vaccines. But as your immune system has “seen” the virus before it allows it to respond more effectively. This means the threat posed by infection has fallen drastically.</p> <p>We know Biden has received his booster shots. Boosters have been shown to offer <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-new-covid-booster-vaccines-can-i-get-one-do-they-work-are-they-safe-217804">substantial protection</a> against severe illness and death and are particularly important for older age groups.</p> <h2>Now we have antivirals</h2> <p>Second, we also have antiviral medicines, such as Paxlovid, which is effective in reducing the likelihood of severe illness from COVID if taken soon after developing symptoms.</p> <p>In <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2118542">one study</a>, if taken soon after infection, Paxlovid reduced the likelihood of severe illness or death by 89%. So it is <a href="https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antivirals-including-antibody-products/ritonavir-boosted-nirmatrelvir--paxlovid-/">highly recommended</a> for those at higher risk of severe illness. As we know, Biden is taking Paxlovid.</p> <p>Paxlovid has also been associated with rebound symptoms. This is when a person looks to have recovered from infection only to have symptoms reappear. Biden experienced this <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-some-people-who-take-paxlovid-for-covid-get-rebound-symptoms-or-test-positive-again-like-president-biden-188002">in 2022</a>.</p> <p>The good news is that even if this occurs in most instances the symptoms associated with the recurrence tend to be mild.</p> <h2>Biden would have the best care</h2> <p>The other factor of course is that Biden would have access to some of the world’s best medical care.</p> <p>If his symptoms were to become more severe or any complications were to develop, you can be assured he would get the best treatment.</p> <p>So is Biden’s diagnosis news? Well of course, given all the speculation about his health. But in terms of COVID being a major threat to Biden’s health, there are no indications it should be.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/234999/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hassan-vally-202904"><em>Hassan Vally</em></a><em>, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/deakin-university-757">Deakin University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Bonnie Cash/Pool via CNP/Shutterstock Editorial </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/joe-biden-has-covid-heres-what-someone-over-80-can-expect-234999">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

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Why you should expect to pay more tourist taxes – even though the evidence for them is unclear

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rhys-ap-gwilym-1531623">Rhys ap Gwilym</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/bangor-university-1221">Bangor University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linda-osti-1431286">Linda Osti</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/bangor-university-1221">Bangor University</a></em></p> <p>In April 2024, Venice began its controversial experiment to <a href="https://www.timeout.com/news/venice-will-charge-tourists-5-to-enter-the-city-from-next-year-090823">charge day trippers</a> €5 (£4.30) to visit the city on some of the busiest days of the year. But it’s not just the lagoon city, with its <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/travel/article/20230928-venices-new-5-entry-fee-explained#:%7E:text=Over%20the%20past%20three%20decades%2C%20Venice%20has%20become,thirds%20of%20visitors%20come%20just%20for%20the%20day.">30 million visitors</a> a year which is interested in trying out new tourism taxes.</p> <p>In the UK, a council in the county of Kent <a href="https://eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheconversationuk.cmail20.com%2Ft%2Fr-l-tiuhhult-iukktlluuk-o%2F&amp;data=05%7C02%7Cr.a.gwilym%40bangor.ac.uk%7C39ac5db833674c1a026508dc63a24fa7%7Cc6474c55a9234d2a9bd4ece37148dbb2%7C0%7C0%7C638494795990617858%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=D6oVizx3pFoiwRaTcKaakQ079%2FIQx86jcbFpj2%2FS0RQ%3D&amp;reserved=0">has recommended</a> introducing a tourism tax on overnight stays in the county. In Scotland, it seems likely that <a href="https://edinburgh.org/planning/local-information/visitor-levy-for-edinburgh/#:%7E:text=The%20Edinburgh%20Visitor%20Levy%2C%20otherwise%20referred%20to%20as,would%20then%20be%20invested%20back%20into%20the%20city.">visitors to Edinburgh</a> will be paying a fee by 2026, and the Welsh government <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/welsh-government-announces-tourists-pay-26591498">plans to introduce</a> similar legislation later this year.</p> <p>Such taxes may seem new to the UK, but there are more than 60 destinations around the world where this type of tax is already in place. These vary from a nationwide tax in Iceland to various towns across the US. Some have been in place for a long time (France was the <a href="https://www.impots.gouv.fr/taxe-de-sejour">first in 1910</a>), but most were introduced during the last decade or two.</p> <p>Before the pandemic really struck (and tourism was put on hold), 2020 was described by one newspaper as the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/tourist-tax-amsterdam-venice/">“year of the tourist tax”</a>, as Amsterdam joined an ever-growing list of destinations, which includes Paris, Malta and Cancun, to charge visitors for simply visiting.</p> <p>Introducing these tourist taxes has often been controversial, with industry bodies <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-62707152">voicing concerns</a> about the potential impacts on the tourist trade.</p> <p>And it appears that the link between such levies and visitor numbers is not simple, with several studies reaching different conclusions. For example, some have suggested that tourism levies have hindered <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.bangor.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S0261517704000238">international tourism in the Balearics</a> and <a href="https://journals-sagepub-com.bangor.idm.oclc.org/doi/pdf/10.1177/00472875211053658">the Maldives</a>, and that they may dissuade people from participating in <a href="https://eprints.bournemouth.ac.uk/35087/1/ADEDOYIN%2C%20Festus%20Fatai_Ph.D._2020.pdf">domestic tourism</a>.</p> <p>Yet in one of the world’s most popular tourism spots with a levy, Barcelona, visitor numbers have <a href="https://groupnao.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/TOURISM-TAXES-BY-DESIGN-NOV12-2020_rettet-compressed-2.pdf">consistently risen</a>, with hotel guests increasing from 7.1 million in 2013 to 9.5 million in 2019.</p> <p>In fact, the relationship between a visitor levy and tourist flow is so complex that there is no unified view, even within the same country. Italy has been one of the most studied, and results <a href="https://crenos.unica.it/crenosterritorio/sites/default/files/allegati-pubblicazioni-tes/Indagine_Villasimius_Quaderno_Crenos_ISBN.pdf">are inconsistent</a> <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jtr.2123">there too</a>.</p> <p>Another study, looking at three neighbouring Italian seaside spots finds that only in one destination has the visitor levy <a href="https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.1429/77318">reduced tourist flow</a>. And a study on the Italian cities of Rome, Florence and Padua shows that these cities <a href="https://link-springer-com.bangor.idm.oclc.org/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-61274-0_23">have not experienced any negative effects</a> either in terms of domestic or international demand.</p> <p>So the impact of tourism taxes on visitor numbers is inconclusive.</p> <p>But what about other effects, such as the potential benefits of spending the revenues raised? As part of an ongoing research project, we looked at seven different destinations in which tourist taxes are levied to look at how the money raised is then spent.</p> <p>For most places, tourism tax revenues were being used to fund marketing and branding – so invested directly into promoting more tourism. The income was also commonly used to fund tourism infrastructure, from public toilets and walking or cycling paths to a multi-billion dollar <a href="https://www.occc.net/About-Us-Media-Relations-Press-Releases/ArticleID/569/Orange%20County%20Board%20Votes%20to%20Approve%20Convention%20Center%20Completion%20with%20Tourist%20Development%20Tax%20Revenues">convention centre</a> in Orange County, Florida.</p> <p>In <a href="https://www.caib.es/sites/impostturisme/en/l/projects/?mcont=95762">the Balearics</a>, revenues tend to go to projects that mitigate the negative impacts of tourism on the environment, culture and society of the islands. These include waste management, conserving natural habitats and historical monuments, and social housing.</p> <p>But in general, tourism taxes have been implemented successfully across the destinations we looked at, and there is little evidence of tourists being put off from visiting.</p> <p>Research also suggests that when tourists are told what the levy is used for – and when it relates directly to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/5/2/21">improving their experience</a> or <a href="https://ejtr.vumk.eu/index.php/about/article/view/2813/605">enhancing sustainable tourism</a> – <a href="https://www-sciencedirect-com.bangor.idm.oclc.org/science/article/pii/S2212571X20301621?casa_token=HcD-yQh65XcAAAAA:GhVRo4vX9JY1E3Lcx5ZPaTr5ZHArMGNrmK_2ASJCtMPjVpdCQLdun25BmFEYquGgz8-1riOWdg">tourists are willing to accept and pay</a> the levy.</p> <h2>Day trippers</h2> <p>For many tourism destinations, the major problem is not overnight tourists, but rather <a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/fuming-snowdonia-visitors-demand-self-30203642">day visitors</a> who use local resources while making little in the way of a financial contribution. For these reasons, taxes might also be used to deter day visits and instead encourage longer stays.</p> <p><a href="https://www.economist.com/why-venice-is-starting-to-charge-tourists-to-enter?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&amp;utm_source=google&amp;ppccampaignID=18156330227&amp;ppcadID=&amp;utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&amp;utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&amp;gad_source=1&amp;gclid=Cj0KCQjw_qexBhCoARIsAFgBleshST3IQMYR8hONLSLnA_loj9dukAqxURhdVCn1RmGeD5iOQzw_r2caAsqrEALw_wcB&amp;gclsrc=aw.ds">Venice is at the forefront</a> of this shift. And in April 2024, after long discussions between the local authority, residents and business owners, Venice started a <a href="https://cdamedia.veneziaunica.it/en/video/it-is-difficult-to-book-a-visit-to-venice/">trial</a> of a day visitor tax (a so-called <a href="https://cda.veneziaunica.it/en">“access fee”</a>).</p> <p>Back in Kent, it may take longer for any such radical plans to come to fruition. In contrast to Scotland and Wales, there are currently no national plans to <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/written-questions-answers-statements/written-question/commons/2023-09-13/199425">introduce tourist taxes</a> in England.</p> <p>This might be considered shortsighted, given the dire need of many destinations in England to improve local infrastructure that tourists rely on, including <a href="https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2024/Research-News/Swimming-in-sewage-Bathing-forecasts-not-keeping-people-safe">clean bathing water</a> and <a href="https://www.lancs.live/news/cumbria-news/lake-district-warning-parking-issues-27173650">public transport</a>. In <a href="https://www.accountingweb.co.uk/business/finance-strategy/manchester-acts-as-trailblazer-for-tourist-tax">Manchester</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0e0385e6-29ec-4302-9903-6fbf63d8854a">Liverpool</a>, businesses have implemented voluntary overnight charges on visitors, in the absence of the statutory basis to implement compulsory levies.</p> <p>Many other English towns and cities will probably follow their lead. Tourism taxes are something we might all have to consider budgeting for in our future travel plans, wherever we choose to visit.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/229134/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rhys-ap-gwilym-1531623">Rhys ap Gwilym</a>, Senior Lecturer in Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/bangor-university-1221">Bangor University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/linda-osti-1431286">Linda Osti</a>, Senior Lecturer in Tourism Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/bangor-university-1221">Bangor University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock</em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-you-should-expect-to-pay-more-tourist-taxes-even-though-the-evidence-for-them-is-unclear-229134">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Travel Trouble

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What to expect from the federal budget

<p>There's just three weeks left until Treasurer Jim Chalmers unveils the federal budget.</p> <p>With the cost of living crisis still a major issue across the country, we can expect to see some policies aimed at alleviating the pressure. </p> <p>Some policies, have already been announced and here are a few others that we can expect to hear from Chalmers on May 14. </p> <p>Stage 3 cuts announced in January, will form a key part of this year's budget, which will direct more benefit towards low- and middle-income earners – although Australians on high salaries will still receive a tax cut.</p> <p>The decision was made to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures and partly address the bracket creep. The cuts lower the threshold for the lowest two brackets (so they pay less tax on that income), and raise the threshold for the highest two brackets (so they need to earn more to be taxed at a higher rate). </p> <p>This means that someone with average income of around $73,000 will get $1504, but how much you actually receive will depend on your income. </p> <p>The new version of the stage 3 cuts will come into effect on July 1.</p> <p>Superannuation will be paid on government-funded parental leave, with the change due to kick in for parents with babies born after July 1, 2025.</p> <p>They will receive a 12 per cent superannuation on top of their government-funded parental leave, with around 180,000 families expected to benefit from it. </p> <p>The figures will be included in the May 14 budget. </p> <p>Although nothing has been officially announced,  there will likely be HECS-HELP debt relief for current and former students. </p> <p>"I think there's a range of areas where we need to do much better with the younger generation, and HECS is one of them," Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on radio on April 18.</p> <p>"We've received a review of that... and what that has said is that the system can be made simpler and be made fairer.</p> <p>"We're examining the recommendations and we'll be making announcements pretty soon on that. We, of course, have a budget coming up."</p> <p>There have also been some hints from the government that energy bill relief will continue in this year's budget. </p> <p>"Our government understands that for small business – as for Australian families – energy bills remain a source of financial pressure," Albanese said, citing the existing policy that gives eligible families up to $500 off their power bills and eligible small businesses up to $650.</p> <p>"Our government understands that for small business – as for Australian families – energy bills remain a source of financial pressure," he said.</p> <p>"That's why the energy bill relief package I negotiated with the states and territories delivered up to $650 in savings for around 1 million small businesses, along with 5 million families.</p> <p>"And as we put together next month's budget, small businesses and families will again be front and centre in our thinking."</p> <p>Energy bills are also set to go down, or remain stable for the most part from July 1. </p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Money & Banking

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We’re in a new COVID wave. What can we expect this time?

<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-wood-107417">James Wood</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bette-liu-1484488">Bette Liu</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-louise-flanagan-1066858">Katie Louise Flanagan</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stuart-turville-1273716">Stuart Turville</a>, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p>Australia is now into its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-02/nsw-sydney-covid-christmas-fresh-wave/103051190">next COVID wave</a>. We’ve seen hints of this for a while. Case numbers and indicators of severe disease began rising in Victoria in August. But it has taken several months for a consistent pattern to emerge across Australia.</p> <p>Now we see evidence of this new wave via <a href="https://www.health.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-11/victorian-covid-19-surveillance-report-03-november-2023.pdf">wastewater surveillance</a> for traces of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. We also see <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/weekly-reporting">rises</a> in COVID-related hospital admissions and antiviral prescriptions. Compared to past waves, this one has built up slowly and over a longer period.</p> <p>Here’s what we know about this new wave and what to expect over the coming weeks.</p> <h2>How do we know we’re in a new COVID wave?</h2> <p>In earlier waves, when more people were testing for COVID and reporting their results, we were more confident case numbers were a reasonable reflection of how COVID was tracking.</p> <p>However, now, a more useful indicator for COVID nationally is to look at trends in the number of prescriptions for the antiviral medications ritonavir (Paxlovid) and molnupiravir (Lagevrio) on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS).</p> <p>In the graph below, which is drawn from <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/covid-19/weekly-reporting">national prescribing data</a>, you can clearly see script numbers rising.</p> <p><iframe id="3d26e" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3d26e/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <h2>When will we hit the peak?</h2> <p>It has become more difficult to predict the size and timing of the peak. Reduced access to COVID testing and fewer requirements or opportunities to report test results, combined with the slow growth rate for this wave, give a wider range of possibilities.</p> <p>The wave is also likely to differ between states and territories, as some got off to a later start.</p> <p>However, given the wave’s slow growth rate and further increases in hybrid immunity (immunity from both vaccination and infection) over 2023, it’s reasonable to expect this to be the smallest Omicron wave so far.</p> <p>We also expect it will be over by early in the summer holiday period. That’s when rates of community contact decline significantly, as work and school contacts are much reduced. That means fewer opportunities for the virus to spread between networks of family and friends.</p> <h2>Why now?</h2> <p>It’s unlikely this latest COVID wave stems from changes in behaviour. People are generally out and about, fewer people are wearing masks in public. But we don’t see any dramatic shifts in this type of behaviour in 2023 compared with 2022.</p> <p>It’s not a seasonal cause, given respiratory viruses tend to spread better in winter, when we’re cooped up indoors with others.</p> <p>It’s unlikely it’s our <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.26.23294679v1">waning immunity</a> from infection or vaccination that’s prompting these successive waves.</p> <p>Instead, we’re seeing the result of a constantly mutating virus. Successful SARS-CoV-2 variants are gradually acquiring mutations. Some of these changes reduce the ability of existing antibodies to bind to and neutralise the virus. So it appears it’s still the “immune escape” variants that are behind these latest waves.</p> <h2>Which variants are to blame?</h2> <p>The primary viral lineage in Australia this year has been XBB. Over the past six months, its two most influential mutations have been:</p> <ul> <li> <p>the F456L mutation that led to the rise of EG.5.1, also known as Eris</p> </li> <li> <p>more recently, the paired “FLip” mutations F456L+L455F. We see these in offspring of Eris and in much-less closely related lineages. This is a clear sign these mutations help the virus spread better.</p> </li> </ul> <p>Both the single and paired mutations make existing antibodies less effective at blocking SARS-CoV-2 from binding to critical receptors on our cells. This increases our susceptibility to infection.</p> <p> </p> <p>The novel BA.2.86 lineage – colloquially known as Pirola – was first reported in Denmark in August and has many unique mutations. It has not been influential so far in this wave in Australia. But it has continued to evolve. And we may see it play a much bigger role in Australia in 2024.</p> <h2>Who is most at risk during this COVID wave?</h2> <p>Since the start of the pandemic, rates of COVID-related death and severe disease have greatly declined. That’s due to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00801-5/fulltext">widespread</a> vaccination and hybrid immunity, and a major change in the Omicron variant that’s made the virus less-likely to <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35104837/">infect the lung</a>.</p> <p>However, provisional statistics show there have been about <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release">3,000</a> registered COVID deaths in Australia from January to July 2023.</p> <p>Older people and those with weaker immune systems are expected to remain at <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266723000798">greatest risk</a> of developing severe COVID during this current wave.</p> <p>This is the rationale for the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation’s (ATAGI) September <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-update-on-the-covid-19-vaccination-program">recommendation</a> for people aged 75 or older to get boosted if more than six months had passed since their last vaccine dose.</p> <p>ATAGI also recommended people aged 65-74, and people 18 years and over with severe immunocompromising conditions, consider having another booster.</p> <p>But, by the end of October 2023, <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-10/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-update-27-october-2023.pdf">it was estimated</a> only one-quarter of Australians aged 65-74, one-third of people aged 75 or over and fewer than half (45%) of people in aged care had received a COVID vaccine in the past six months.</p> <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558309/original/file-20231108-19-5fu6vv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Woman receives vaccination" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People with immunocompromising conditions should get boosted.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woman-wearing-protective-face-mask-getting-1966499908">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure> <h2>Which vaccines are available?</h2> <p>Currently available bivalent vaccines protect against the original ancestral strain of SARS-CoV-2 (now extinct) plus the newer BA.1 or BA.4/5 variants. These bivalent vaccines also protect us against <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6527f0bfaea2d0000d219c69/vaccine-surveillance-report-2023-week-41.pdf">severe disease</a> from the Omicron variants circulating now, such as XBB.</p> <p>But we can expect newer monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccines soon, now the Therapeutic Goods Administration has <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/products/covid-19/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-regulatory-status">approved them</a>. These are expected to provide <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.10.04.23296545v1.full.pdf">better protection</a> against newer Omicron variants than the currently available <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213260023003065">bivalent vaccines</a>.</p> <p>In the meantime, boosting with any available COVID vaccine will provide <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6527f0bfaea2d0000d219c69/vaccine-surveillance-report-2023-week-41.pdf">good protection</a> for vulnerable people.</p> <h2>What might we expect from COVID in 2024?</h2> <p>The Northern Hemisphere appears to have settled into an approximate seasonal pattern of COVID infections in 2023 and it’s plausible Australia will follow suit.</p> <p>If so, we should plan for overlapping seasonal epidemics of our three most important respiratory viruses: SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). So hospitals may need to plan ahead for larger peaks in admissions.</p> <p>Hopefully, new <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/rsv.html">vaccines for RSV</a>, and more broadly protective <a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/research-context-progress-toward-universal-vaccines">flu and COVID vaccines</a> to be developed over the next decade, should help.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216820/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-wood-107417">James Wood</a>, Professor, epidemiological modelling of infectious diseases, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bette-liu-1484488">Bette Liu</a>, Associate Professor and NHMRC Career Development Fellow, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/katie-louise-flanagan-1066858">Katie Louise Flanagan</a>, Infectious Diseases Specialist and Clinical Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a></em>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stuart-turville-1273716">Stuart Turville</a>, Associate Professor, Immunovirology and Pathogenesis Program, Kirby Institute, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-new-covid-wave-what-can-we-expect-this-time-216820">original article</a>.</p>

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Australia’s life expectancy is up, but healthy years are a different story

<p>Australians have added six years to their life expectancy since 1990 – a world-leading increase – but some measurements paint a less rosy picture of the nation’s health.</p> <p>The data is the subject of a major feature in the respected British Medical journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266723001238" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">The Lancet.</a></p> <p>Overall, the data shows <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/society/aussies-are-living-longer-but-just-how-much/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">life expectancy in Australia improved</a> from 77 years in 1990 to 83 in 2019. </p> <p>Although heart disease and stroke remain the nation’s biggest killers, both have seen major reductions in deaths since 1990 – down 68% and 58% respectively.</p> <p>In its analysis of data published in the <a href="https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2019 Global Burden of Disease Study</a>, the research also found:</p> <ul> <li>90% of people die from non-communicable diseases.</li> <li>Lung cancers remain the third biggest killers, though substantial reductions have been recorded since 1990.</li> <li>Alzheimer’s and other dementias are now the fourth most frequent causes of death.</li> <li>Chronic kidney disease, pancreatic cancer, falls, leukaemia and liver cancer now kill more people than they did 30 years ago.</li> </ul> <p>The biggest improvement has been the big drop in the number of road fatalities, which in 1990 was the seventh leading cause of death in Australia. There had been a 63% reduction in the number of deaths per 100,000 people (15.5 to 5.7) by 2019; now ranking it as the 17th most frequent cause of death.</p> <p>The data also explored the non-fatal disease burden in the population.</p> <p>These, says the study’s lead author Dr Shariful Islam from Deakin University’s Institute for Physical Activity and Nutrition, add to the burden on Australia’s economy both in financial and productivity terms.</p> <p>“These might not cause a lot of death, but they’re definitely causing a lot of disability-adjusted life years,” Islam says.</p> <p>The nation ranks better than similar countries for the non-fatal disease burden from diabetes and non-fatal stroke. Conversely, its relative ranking has worsened for drug use, anxiety and depressive disorders.</p> <p>Risk factors that diminish the years of healthy life a person might experience like these have seen big jumps over the last 30 years.</p> <p>“It also causes a lot of economic issues, because when a person has musculoskeletal or low back pain, or especially anxiety or depression, they will often be absent from work, they will be less productive – this costs money.”</p> <h2>Two-speed health improvements</h2> <p>The data also shows the burden of disease is inequitably spread across the nation.</p> <p>People from lower socioeconomic backgrounds were found to have a higher risk of death-causing disease, and account for larger proportions of smokers and those with obesity. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are disproportionately represented in these groups.</p> <p>High blood pressure remains the leading risk factor for mortality, though it accounts for nearly half as many deaths in 2019 (as a proportion of the total) than it did 30 years prior.</p> <p>And while body mass index (BMI) has been shelved in recent years as an individual health indicator in favour of metrics like waist measurements, at a population level, it remains a top-three mortality risk factor.</p> <p>That, says Islam, is because those with high BMI likely carry other major risk factors.</p> <p>“With High BMI you’ll often [also] see high blood pressure, high blood glucose, often sedentary lifestyles,” he says.</p> <p>Islam and his colleagues highlight universal healthcare programs like Medicare, regulatory and broader healthcare systems as the strengths driving the overall positive outcomes in life expectancy.</p> <p>But they argue the nation’s performance in delivering preventative and supportive treatment for non-fatal conditions, and promoting healthy lifestyles to its ageing population will be important to continue a sustained trajectory.</p> <p>This view is supported by a comment by University of Sydney-affiliated public health experts Michelle Dickson, Cheryl Jones, Terry Slevin, and Jaime Miranda. While they say the study highlights Australia as a “public health exemplar”, they highlight the deficiencies bridging the health gap for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds as an important public responsibility.</p> <p>“Australia has a world-class health care and public health system that has been conducive to major population gains, at least in life expectancy,” they write. “Yet, work remains to be done to marry such gains with strategies and policies to prevent or reduce disease burden during the entire lifecourse, and to reduce inequalities. This will be essential to sustain this world-class health system and to promote healthier societies.”</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/society/australias-life-expectancy-is-up-but-healthy-years-are-a-different-story/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> originally appeared on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by Matthew Ward Agius. </em></p>

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"You're not in labour": Expectant mum sent away from hospital gives birth at home

<p>A young mother from Ballarat, Victoria, had no choice but to give birth in the front bedroom of her home after being turned away from the maternity ward, even though she was experiencing contractions.</p> <p>Courtnie Apps, accompanied by her best friend Ashlee Meek, arrived at Ballarat Base Hospital on Monday night, enduring immense pain.</p> <p>Apps described the experience as intense and was promptly taken to the pregnancy assessment area for testing. However, medical staff concluded that her pain was likely due to a kidney infection, rather than labor.</p> <p>"They said, 'You're not in labour so this pain you're having must be from your kidney infection, which can be quite painful,'" Apps <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/ballarat-pregnant-mum-turned-away-from-hospital-despite-having-contractions/b95ffc53-1be6-41ea-9368-a105e0ba8009" target="_blank" rel="noopener">told 9News</a>.</p> <p>Disappointed and bewildered, Apps was sent home with painkillers and a strong sleeping pill.</p> <p>"We're like, 'Are we crazy? We're clearly seeing she's in labour,'" Meek stated, reflecting on their frustration.</p> <p>The pair returned home, and within an hour, Apps gave birth to her daughter, Alaida Hope.</p> <p>Meek, who has aspirations of becoming a midwife and is a nursing student with six children of her own, assisted in the delivery.</p> <p>"I had to put my hand on the baby's head to stop her from coming out too fast and doing too much damage, all while trying to dial triple zero with my other hand," Meeks recalled.</p> <p>"It was just pure luck really that nothing happened and that baby didn't need any help and that mum didn't have a serious haemorrhage."</p> <p>After the unexpected home birth, the trio was transported back to Ballarat Base Hospital in an ambulance. However, to their dismay, no one from the hospital has offered an apology thus far. Apps emphasised the importance of listening to patients saying that healthcare professionals should pay attention when patients express that something is wrong.</p> <p>When approached for a statement, a spokesperson for Grampians Health, the organisation overseeing Ballarat Base Hospital, declined to comment on Apps' case.</p> <p>The spokesperson cited patient privacy as the reason for not disclosing specific details but assured that patient safety is of utmost importance and their commitment to providing excellent care remains unwavering.</p> <p><em>Image: 9News</em></p>

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Al Pacino expecting fourth child at 83

<p dir="ltr">Al Pacino is expecting his fourth child at 83 with his girlfriend Noor Alfallah, 29 who is eight months pregnant.</p> <p dir="ltr">A close friend of the actor revealed that Pacino “could not be happier” and is over the moon at the prospect of welcoming his fourth child with Noor, despite their 54-year age gap.</p> <p dir="ltr">Although the news was unexpected, the close friend denied the rumours claiming that Noor kept the pregnancy a secret for 11 weeks.</p> <p dir="ltr">“If she waited until 11 weeks to tell Al it is because she found out then,” they told the <em>DailyMail</em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">“She's wanted to have a baby for years and Al could not be happier. He loves Noor and the feeling is mutual,” they added.</p> <p dir="ltr">The source also claimed that the couple were not trying for a baby when Noor got pregnant, but it did happen naturally and that “obviously, Al is still very able”.</p> <p dir="ltr">The obvious question is, why did the pair wait for eight months to reveal the pregnancy?</p> <p dir="ltr">According to the source, “Al waited to reveal the pregnancy news until now because they didn't want people hounding them. They are a private couple and would like to keep it that way.”</p> <p dir="ltr">The source also denied the wild allegations that Noor is only dating the <em>Scarface</em> star to take advantage of Pacino's wealth as “complete and utter b******t”.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Not only does Noor come from an extremely wealthy family, but she has also worked to obtain her own wealth,” they added.</p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Images: Getty Images/ Instagram</em></p>

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Explainer: Why are electricity prices expected to rise, yet again?

<div> <div class="copy"> <p>Households in three states could be facing electricity price increases of up to 23.7% from July following a report from the Australian Energy Regulator.</p> <p>The increase will affect customers on standard power plans, known as the “default market offer” in South Australia, New South Wales and south-east Queensland. </p> <p>Small businesses could be facing price increases of between 14.7% to 25.7% depending on their location.</p> <p>The default market offer represents the maximum price is an electricity retailer can charge retail customers for their electricity in those states which have opted in to the system. There are around 540,000 household and 91,000 business customers in NSW, SA and Qld on the default market offer.</p> <p>In Victoria, an <a href="https://www.esc.vic.gov.au/electricity-and-gas/prices-tariffs-and-benchmarks/victorian-default-offer/victorian-default-offer-price-review-2023-24#toc--victorian-default-offer-2023-24-draft-decision" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">equivalent default offer</a> set by the Essential Services Commission is expected to rise by 31.1%. In Australia, energy is largely the domain of state and territory governments, and other states have different approaches.</p> <p>Price changes are likely to apply from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024.</p> <p>According to the Australian Energy Regulator, the <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/default-market-offer-2023%E2%80%9324-draft-determination" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">largest factor driving the price increase</a> is the higher cost and volatility of generating electricity.</p> <p>In announcing the increase to the default market offer, AER Chair Clare Savage said the regulator carefully considered the need to protect consumers from unjustifiably high prices.</p> <p>“We know many households and businesses are already struggling with cost-of-living pressures. This is certainly a challenging environment for people to hear that further electricity price rises are on the horizon.</p> <p>“Energy prices are not immune from the significant challenges in the global economy right now; that’s why it’s more important than ever that we strike a balance in setting the [default market offer] to protect consumers as well as allowing retailers to continue to recover their costs and innovate.</p> <p>Energy Consumers Australia CEO Lynne Gallagher says the slated increases come “on top of double digit increases the previous year” and are a blow for consumers struggling with cost-of-living pressures.</p> <p>“These electricity price increases will hurt, heaping more pressure on household budgets and on small businesses,” she says.</p> <p>The default market offer represents a safety net for consumers, not the best price available. </p> <p>Savage and Gallagher both encouraged customers to <a href="https://www.energymadeeasy.gov.au/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">look for a better deal from electricity retailers</a>.</p> <h3><strong>What does my electricity bill pay for? </strong></h3> <p>A <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/regulated-infrastructure/energy/electricity-market-monitoring-inquiry-2018-25/november-2022-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">November 2022 report</a> by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission says average household electricity costs comprise:</p> <ul> <li>49% network costs (the poles and wires that deliver the electricity from power plants to consumers)</li> <li>28% wholesale costs (the cost of generating electricity from solar, wind, hydro, gas or coal-fired power stations)</li> <li>11% environmental costs</li> <li>10% retail costs</li> <li>2% electricity retailer profit margins.</li> </ul> <p>These relative shares change over time. The Australian Energy Regulator says generation <a href="https://www.aer.gov.au/news-release/default-market-offer-2023%E2%80%9324-draft-determination" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">makes up around 30 – 40% of the price</a>, a larger share than the ACCC reports.</p> <h3><strong>Generation driving up costs now</strong></h3> <p>The cost of generating electricity – from solar, wind, gas or coal – is reflected in the wholesale energy cost.</p> <p>According to the energy regulator, wholesale price increases reflect higher prices for gas and coal, reliability issues with ageing coal-fired power stations and the expected closure of Liddell Power Station in NSW in April 2023. Some regional issues also affected prices, such as SA’s extreme weather in November.</p> <p>Energy economist Bruce Mountain is Director of the Victorian Energy Policy Centre.</p> <p>He says the volatile price of generating electricity is due to a range of factors. These include developments in Europe like the shift away from reliance on Russian gas which is increasing global demand for fossil fuels from other countries including Australia.</p> <p>Mountain says the combined demand from export contracts and local coal and gas use is higher than supply. Which is why when prices increase overseas, those higher international prices flow through into higher domestic prices.</p> <p>“We’ve got plentiful gas and coal, but we don’t have enough gas on our south and eastern seaboard to meet both domestic consumption and export demand,” he says.</p> <p>“And then on top of all of this coal and gas producers, power producers are profit-maximising. They will look for opportunities to take advantage of constraints to exercise market power.”</p> <p>While new renewable electricity are adding to supply, and reducing reliance on coal and gas, it’s not yet enough to counteract these effects.</p> <p>Mountain says the effects of higher coal and gas prices aren’t limited to fossil-fuel reliant states like Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Interstate connections mean electricity prices in renewable-dominated states like South Australia and Tasmania are influenced by market prices elsewhere.</p> <h3><strong>In the future, transmission </strong></h3> <p>Getting off fossil fuels might ultimately reduce generation costs and exposure to international prices for coal and gas.</p> <p>But Mountain expects current proposals for new major transmission lines (<a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">connecting to new Renewable Energy Zones</a>) will “cost a fortune”, and factor in to future prices.</p> <p>He doesn’t believe the Integrated System Plan outlined by the Australian Energy Market Operator – involving a complete redesign of electricity infrastructure – will actually be fully implemented. </p> <p>“It’s of such huge magnitude, and it will have such massive implications for the environment and for landowners. I cannot imagine it’s going to be built.”</p> <p>Mountain says he thinks this could delay the transition to renewable energy. He says, a better, more achievable approach would be to maximise wind and solar resources as close to existing demand as possible minimising the need to build enormous transmission lines. </p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> </div> <div id="contributors"> <p><em>This article was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/explainer-why-are-electricity-prices-expected-to-rise-yet-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cosmosmagazine.com</a> and was written by Petra Stock. </em></p> </div> </div>

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What to expect at King Charles’s coronation: The details and traditions, explained

<h2>The coronation of King Charles</h2> <p>All eyes will be on England for King Charles’s coronation this spring – and not just across the pond. Just as millions around the world watched the UK’s biggest royal weddings and Queen Elizabeth’s funeral, we’ll be doing the same with this event. But we might have a few more questions than our British friends about all the pomp and circumstance. Where do these traditions come from, and how are they being adapted for a new monarch, the first to be crowned in Britain in 70 years?</p> <p>“The coronation has traditional, religious and symbolic significance,” says royal expert Nicoletta Gullace, an associate professor of history at the University of New Hampshire who specialises in modern British history. “It is the moment the crown is placed upon the king’s head, and it signifies Charles’s authority in a long line of rulers ostensibly going back to the time of William the Conqueror in 1066.”</p> <p>In addition to the ceremony itself, there will be plenty of festivities – but not quite to the extent we’ve seen at other royal events, including Queen Elizabeth’s coronation back in 1953. “Charles wants to have a ‘slimmed-down monarchy,’ so he is trying to avoid the appearance of extravagance,” Gullace says. Still, no one does royal celebrations like the Brits, so no doubt the festivities will be filled with all the grandeur we’ve come to expect.</p> <p>Let’s delve into what you can expect from King Charles III’s coronation, from the timeline of events to the history of the rituals and the crown jewels, as well as the potential snubs and drama. (Harry and Meghan, we’re looking at you!) Plus, find out who from the British royal family tree will be there, what Queen Camilla’s coronation crown will be like and if King Charles III’s role in government will change after the big day.</p> <h3>When is King Charles’s coronation?</h3> <p>King Charles’s coronation date is Saturday, May 6, 2023. “Plans for the coronation of Charles III and his Queen Consort Camilla have been underway for a long time under the code name Operation Golden Orb,” says historian and author Tony McMahon.</p> <h3>How long will it take for Charles to be coronated?</h3> <p>“The coronation will be much shorter than the three-hour royal marathon Queen Elizabeth II endured,” McMahon says. “There’s clearly a sense that attention spans are not what they once were. Shorter will be better.” Expect the ceremony to last an hour or two max. The celebratory events, however, will continue through Monday, May 8.</p> <p>Interestingly, May 6 is also the birthday of Prince Harry’s son, Archie, who will be turning 4 years old. It is also the date that the late Princess Margaret (Queen Elizabeth’s sister) married Antony Armstrong-Jones, as well as the wedding anniversary of Camilla’s daughter, Laura.</p> <h3>Why did the royal family wait so long to have a coronation?</h3> <p>It’s a tradition that dates back centuries. “Shortly after the previous king or queen dies, the new monarch is proclaimed at St. James’s Palace and throughout the kingdom, but there is a gap between that event and the coronation,” McMahon says. “That doesn’t mean we are without a sovereign. The Latin phrase rex nunquam moritur applies in these circumstances, which broadly translates as ‘the king never dies.’ So, we have a monarch – it’s just that a crown has yet to be popped on their head.”</p> <p>Queen Elizabeth’s coronation was 18 months after the death of her father, so the gap between Charles’s accession to the throne upon her death on September 8, 2022, and his coronation isn’t unusual or particularly long, McMahon says. In fact, it’s quite a bit shorter, at just around eight months.</p> <p>“The reason for a gap between the accession and coronation is the requirement for a period of respectful mourning, and on the more practical side, getting things organised for the big day,” McMahon says. “If anything, coronations have become bigger logistical nightmares [starting] in the 20th century. Getting guests to Westminster Abbey from all over the world was not a concern for a medieval monarch.” Queen Elizabeth’s coronation in 1953 was the first to be televised, which added considerations for cameras, lighting and audio.</p> <h3>Will the coronation be televised?</h3> <p>Absolutely. Prince Philip, Queen Elizabeth’s husband, famously championed televising her coronation, and major royal events have been standard viewing ever since. In addition to the BBC in England, many international news channels will likely televise the event. (No official announcements have yet been made.) You’ll probably also be able to watch it online via live streaming.</p> <p>But King Charles’s coronation probably won’t come close to the recent royal weddings in terms of viewership numbers.</p> <p>“Given the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee last summer, her extremely long funeral event and all of Prince Harry’s Netflix specials and book talks, people may be royaled out,” Gullace says. King Charles also doesn’t have the same popularity as the younger royals or the late queen.</p> <h2>What will happen at the coronation?</h2> <p>The coronation isn’t just a political event – it’s also a religious ceremony. “King Charles is literally being anointed as God’s chosen ruler,” McMahon says. “That may seem weird to us today in the 21st century, but it’s still what legitimises having a monarch.” At the ceremony, Charles will be affirmed as the head of the Church of England, and his power as the symbolic ruler of the realm will be solidified, Gullace says. “It is a solemn occasion, but it will be accompanied by a festive public holiday, a pop concert, a light show at Windsor Castle, extended pub hours and community luncheons,” she says. Here’s a full timeline of the events.</p> <h3>The procession to Westminster Abbey</h3> <p>From Buckingham Palace, “King Charles and Queen Consort Camilla will process to Westminster Abbey through central London,” McMahon says. This is known as the King’s Procession. Westminster Abbey, by the way, also hosted Queen Elizabeth and Prince Philip’s wedding, Prince William and Kate Middleton’s wedding and the queen’s funeral – and it is the spot for royal coronations. “The first coronation at Westminster Abbey was in 1066, when William the Conqueror [who invaded England from Normandy] was crowned king,” says royal expert and author Marlene Koenig. “Charles will be the 40th monarch crowned at the abbey.”</p> <p>Fun fact: Only two kings since 1066 were not crowned – Edward V, who reigned for two months in 1483 before mysteriously vanishing, and Edward VIII, who abdicated in 1936. Having King Charles’s coronation here connects him with his ancestors through the ritual and the place where it will be held, Gullace says.</p> <h2>The coronation ceremony</h2> <p>The ceremony itself has been largely the same since medieval times. “The service is defined in a medieval Latin manuscript called the Liber Regalis, basically a manual for a coronation, which is first and foremost a religious service,” Koenig says. The Archbishop of Canterbury, the head of the Church of England, will anoint King Charles with holy oil, and he will swear to uphold the Christian faith and the laws of England.</p> <p>After taking the oath and being anointed, Charles will be given the orb, coronation ring and sceptre, which symbolise his divinely ordained role as king of the United Kingdom. He will then be crowned – but not quite in the same way as the last king. “Back in 1937, the late Queen Elizabeth’s father King George VI was [also] crowned as Emperor of India, King of the Union of South Africa, the dominions of Canada and Australia, and all the colonies in the empire,” McMahon says. “Charles will be king of a lot less. He may be the last British head of state in some countries where sentiment is growing for a president.”</p> <h3>A representation of other faiths</h3> <p>This will be a change from previous coronations. “King Charles III is the head of the Church of England, but he’s always been keen to position himself as a royal for all faiths,” he says. “There are going to be more representatives of faiths this time round, other than the Church of England. So, expect to see leaders from the Muslim, Hindu, Jewish, Sikh and Roman Catholic faiths playing some kind of role.”</p> <h2>Prince William’s tribute to the king</h2> <p>Only Prince William, as heir to the throne, will pay homage to the king, but none of the other royal dukes will, as they did in previous coronations. “Charles scrapped this to avoid Andrew and Harry having a role in the coronation,” Koenig says. (Charles’s brother Prince Andrew, Duke of York, was involved in a sexual-assault scandal and stripped of his royal duties; and Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex, relinquished his royal duties.)</p> <p>However, the decision also excludes the other royal dukes, the Duke of Gloucester and the Duke of Kent, from paying homage. Prince Edward, Charles’s youngest brother, who was just given the title Duke of Edinburgh, will also unfortunately be left out because of the new rule.</p> <p>What does paying homage entail? “William will say, ‘I, William, Prince of Wales, do become your liege man of life and limb, and of earthly worship; and faith and truth I will bear unto you, to live and die against all manner of folks. So help me God,’” Koenig says.</p> <h2>Camilla’s anointing</h2> <p>“Camilla, queen consort, will also be anointed with holy oil and crowned,” McMahon says. Interestingly, only female consorts are crowned at coronations, not male consorts. “We are used to the image of Queen Elizabeth II sitting alone in 1953 while Prince Philip watched, but this coronation will see two crownings, not just one,” McMahon explains. “Camilla will be crowned in a similar way to the queen mother in 1937, when she sat alongside King George VI.”</p> <p>Although public sentiment has shifted in Camilla’s favour over the last few decades, since the death of Charles’s first wife, Princess Diana, there’s still a major question remaining. “One mystery will be whether Charles dares to drop the word consort from Camilla’s royal title, making her queen of the realm,” Gullace says. As a second wife, she didn’t automatically receive that title.</p> <p>Camilla’s family may also have a role in the ceremony. “There were reports that the queen’s five grandchildren would carry the canopy, normally carried by duchesses, for the anointing, but this has not been confirmed,” Koenig says. “Her two children and son-in-law will, of course, have prominent seating.”</p> <h3>The procession to Buckingham Palace</h3> <p>“The coronation will be followed by a procession back to Buckingham Palace,” McMahon says. Called the Coronation Procession, this ceremonial parade will be a larger event than the one that brought Charles and Camilla to the abbey. The newly crowned couple will also be joined by other members of the royal family.</p> <h2>The balcony appearance</h2> <p>Next up: the grand finale. “It’s all rounded off with the obligatory balcony appearance and lots of waving to the adoring crowds below,” McMahon says. The big question: Who will be on the balcony? As Charles wants to streamline the monarchy, it’s likely only the working royals who will join the king and queen, as with the Queen’s Jubilee in 2022. This will include William, Kate and their children, Charles’s sister Princess Anne, and Prince Edward and his wife, Sophie. Several of Queen Elizabeth’s cousins, including the previously mentioned Dukes of Gloucester and Kent, who are also working royals, are likely to appear as well.</p> <p>“People will probably want to see who is on the balcony when the Red Arrows have their fly-over, but the assurance that everything will be ‘slimmed down’ and economical is unlikely to raise expectations,” Gullace says.</p> <h2>Coronation weekend</h2> <p>The fun’s not over yet! If Saturday marks the formal, solemn occasion, Sunday is the day to party. “On Sunday, May 7, there will be a dazzling coronation concert at Windsor Castle with big-name rock, pop and music stars,” McMahon says. The concert will lead up to “Lighting Up the Nation,” which will feature illuminated famous locations around the UK. “As was the case with the late queen’s jubilees, expect a surfeit of laser and drone displays, which are fast becoming a hallmark of major royal occasions,” McMahon says. “Plus, the more traditional fireworks and lots of military bands crashing cymbals, banging drums and droning bagpipes.”</p> <p>Throughout the weekend, people will also be organising street parties called Coronation Big Lunches in their communities to connect with their neighbours and partake in the revelry. In part to facilitate this, Monday, May 8, will be a holiday in the UK. In addition, “people are being encouraged to do good deeds in their communities, described as ‘Big Help Out’ activities,” McMahon says. “The idea is to make the coronation something more community-focused as opposed to a display of aristocratic baubles.”</p> <h3>What royal traditions will King Charles’s coronation incorporate?</h3> <p>All the royal coronation regalia hold special significance. These items are used to display the longevity of the ritual, Gullace explains. “The big day will see the coronation regalia brought out of the glass cases and put to their intended use, instead of being gawped at by tourists in the Tower of London,” McMahon says. And while it’s not part of the royal coronation traditions, King Charles will probably wear the ring on his pinky that he always wears.</p> <h2>The coronation chair</h2> <p>King Charles won’t sit on the actual throne until after he is crowned. For most of the ceremony, he will be perched on this 700-year-old wooden chair. Made for King Edward I in 1296, it is normally kept at Windsor Castle’s St. George’s Chapel. The chair originally contained the legendary Stone of Scone, a large rock that was seized from Scotland. “In 1996, the government agreed to return the stone to Scotland,” Koenig says. “The agreement to return the Stone of Scone more than 700 years after it was taken by Edward I included the proviso that it would be brought to London for the coronation of a monarch.” The stone will be reunited with the chair for King Charles’s coronation, for the first time since 1996.</p> <h3>The crown</h3> <p>King Charles will wear the same crown as the queen did at her coronation. Only used at the actual moment of crowning, St Edward’s Crown is a “copy” made in 1661 for King Charles II, as the earlier medieval crown was destroyed when the monarchy was briefly overthrown by a rebellion led by Oliver Cromwell in the 17th century. Made of gold and set with gemstones including rubies, sapphires and amethysts, King Charles’s coronation crown weighs in at a whopping 2.2kg.</p> <p>“Charles III will be the seventh monarch to wear it, and this will be the only time he wears this crown,” Koenig says. “For the rest of the service, he will wear the Imperial State Crown, which was made for King George VI’s coronation and last seen on Queen Elizabeth II’s casket.”</p> <h3>The coronation spoon</h3> <p>This medieval utensil isn’t something the king will be eating with! “The coronation spoon is the oldest crown jewel, as it survived Cromwell’s destruction of royal regalia,” McMahon says. Luckily, it was sold instead of being melted down with all the other royal gold. “It dates back to the 12th century and is used to anoint the king with holy oil – the most sacred part of the whole ceremony.” The spoon is the only piece of royal goldsmith’s work still in existence from the 12th century; it was later set with pearls when it was returned to the monarchy, post-Cromwell.</p> <h2>The orb and sceptre</h2> <p>These items represent the sovereignty of the monarch, and both date from 1661, like St Edward’s Crown. “The sceptre is a magnificent piece of bling that includes the largest colourless cut diamond in the world, one of several king-sized diamonds cut from the mega Cullinan Diamond discovered in 1905 in present-day South Africa,” McMahon says. The diamond was added to the sceptre in 1911. Representing the Christian world, the orb will be held by the monarch in his right hand. Topped with a cross, it contains diamonds, rubies, emeralds, sapphires and pearls.</p> <h3>Camilla’s crown</h3> <p>“Camilla will be the first consort in several centuries to not have a new crown for the coronation,” Koenig says. “She will wear Queen Mary’s coronation crown, the consort of George V, Charles’s great-grandparents.” Created for the 1911 coronation, the crown will be altered somewhat for Camilla. According to McMahon, three of the Cullinan diamonds will be inserted and some of the crown’s arches will be removed to create a different look.</p> <p>Notably, the revised crown will leave out another stone that was in the original 1911 version: the supposedly cursed Koh-i-Nur diamond, which was taken from India in 1849 and seen as a symbol of conquest. This is an attempt by Charles and Camilla to distance themselves from the British monarchy’s history of colonialism. However, the Cullinan diamond is not without its own controversy: It was a “gift” from South Africa, another former British colony.</p> <h2>The coronation emblem</h2> <p>Charles has a new emblem for his coronation, which will be used on flags, online materials and other branded merchandise for the event. Created by British designer Sir Jony Ive, the emblem represents Charles’s longstanding love of nature and conservation, and incorporates the British symbols of St. Edward’s Crown and the Union Jack flag’s red, white and blue colour scheme. Using illustrations of flowers from the four nations of the United Kingdom, the emblem features the rose of England, the thistle of Scotland, the daffodil of Wales and the shamrock of Northern Ireland.</p> <h3>The pomp and circumstance</h3> <p>Although the coronation has followed the same basic ceremony for a thousand years, the grandeur we associate with the event is a relatively recent tradition. “The type of grandiose public pageantry and national holiday we enjoy today dates back to the late 19th century,” Gullace says. “At this time, the palace became adept at putting on magnificent public spectacles to enhance the prestige of the crown.”</p> <h2>Who will perform at the coronation?</h2> <p>During the ceremony itself on May 6, the music will feature 12 new orchestral, choral and organ pieces commissioned for the event – including the coronation anthem from famed Broadway composer Andrew Lloyd Webber. Expect Greek Orthodox music as well, as a tribute to Charles’s father, Prince Philip, who was born in Greece.</p> <p>The party really gets started, though, with a pop concert the next day at Windsor Castle, which will be broadcast on the BBC; 5,000 pairs of tickets will also be released to the public and drawn by lottery. But the lineup hasn’t yet been announced, and Charles reportedly has had issues securing entertainers for the event. Adele, Harry Styles, Ed Sheeran and the Spice Girls all declined the palace’s request to perform. Some of the artists said they had conflicts or were on tour, but several top choices, including Adele, were reported not to have gigs that day, Gullace notes.</p> <p>In addition to famous musicians, “there will also be some singing by the Coronation Choir, created from community groups and amateur singers reflecting the UK’s diverse population,” McMahon says. The choral group will include refugee choirs, LGBTQ+ singers and deaf signing choirs.</p> <h3>Who will attend the royal coronation?</h3> <p>An astonishing 8,000 people attended Queen Elizabeth’s coronation – even though Westminster Abbey only seats about 2,200 people, McMahon says. Extra grandstands with tiered seating needed to be built to fit everyone. But that won’t be the case for Charles, who is keeping costs top of mind. “This time, the numbers will be kept down to around 2,000 – so, no massive building work for this coronation,” McMahon says. So, who will snag a seat?</p> <h3>Heads of state</h3> <p>“We can expect the ceremony to be attended by nobility, heads of state, eminent clergy and likely a smattering of ordinary Britons who have contributed in exceptional ways to British well-being, such as nurses, military personnel and activists promoting causes dear to Charles,” Gullace says.</p> <p>The royalty of Europe – and the world – will likely show up, including the royal houses of Norway, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and Luxembourg, McMahon says. “Prince Albert and Princess Charlene of Monaco were the first Euro-royals to RSVP,” he says. “From Japan, Crown Prince Akishino and Crown Princess Kiko will also be there.” Political leaders of the Commonwealth nations (which used to be ruled by Britain) – including Nigeria, Australia, Canada, Bangladesh, Malta and the Bahamas – will also attend, according to McMahon.</p> <h3>A few lucky citizens</h3> <p>Will any regular people get to attend the coronation? Yes – but only in certain circumstances. “Up until the start of February 2023, members of the public were invited to apply to be at the coronation if they could prove that a relative had taken part in a previous coronation. This is an ancient, 700-year-old tradition,” McMahon says. “They were told to apply to the newly created Coronation Claims Office. Back in 1953, a body called the Court of Claims considered similar requests.”</p> <h2>The royal family</h2> <p>Of course, the various members of royal family, including Queen Elizabeth’s grandchildren, will be there, and it’s incredibly important for the monarchy to present a strong, unified front. As the next in line to the throne, Prince William will be front and centre in the audience, and as noted earlier, he will also be part of the ceremony. The big question, of course is whether Prince Harry will show up. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex have received a formal invitation, and some sources say the couple is working out the terms of their attendance – including whether they will get to appear on the balcony of Buckingham Palace, which is now supposed to be a privilege for working royals.</p> <p>McMahon’s prediction? “They’ve hardly endeared themselves to the royal family,” he says, referencing the couple’s recent Netflix series and Harry’s tell-all memoir, Spare, which were both critical of Harry’s family and the institution of the monarchy. “They will either opt to miss the big day or, if they turn up, they won’t get front-row seats. The royals are experts at calculated snubs, and the Sussexes will no doubt sense the lingering displeasure of ‘The Firm’ if they make an appearance.”</p> <h3>Who won’t attend the royal coronation?</h3> <p>Besides the question of Meghan and Harry, the limited seating may mean that some of Britain’s nobility will be excluded from the ceremony guest list. “Not all members of the aristocracy will be invited,” Gullace says, “and those who are not will feel snubbed.”</p> <p>Prince William’s older children, Prince George and Princess Charlotte, will likely attend, with George possibly having a role in the ceremony, since he’s the future heir to the throne. But 4-year-old Prince Louis didn’t attend the queen’s funeral service, so it’s possible he might skip the coronation as well. Harry and Meghan’s children, the newly titled Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet, have reportedly not been invited (at least not yet).</p> <p>One additional question mark is US President Joe Biden. Although an anonymous Time magazine source claimed Biden is “unlikely” to attend, the White House confirmed to People magazine that “the US will be represented at the coronation,” but declined to say more “regarding presidential travel or regarding a potential delegation at this time.” If Biden himself won’t be there, someone else (maybe First Lady Jill Biden?) will go in his stead.</p> <h3>What will happen after the coronation?</h3> <p>After the coronation and the celebratory concert the next day, “there will be a bank holiday on Monday, with the option to get involved in parades, street parties and other celebratory events,” McMahon says. “Some may simply choose to have a nice day off.” A bank holiday is basically a national holiday in which banks and businesses are closed, and it will be seen as a treat from the new king to his people.</p> <p>But what about the new monarch and his family: Will King Charles’s role change in any way? “No one’s role will change – this is a formal service where the king and queen are crowned,” Koenig says. But plans have already been put in place to shore up the roles and importance of working members of “The Firm,” including Prince Edward, Princess Anne and Prince William.</p> <p>Plus, Charles will try to be a “modern” monarch, pursuing serious public service and causes such as environmental conservation. He’ll want to be seen as useful, practical and restrained, so he’s unlikely to have any other flashy events like the coronation anytime soon. “Charles will be 75 in November and could have a service of Thanksgiving, but with the coronation in the same year, perhaps not,” Koenig says. “Apart from state dinners and the annual Trooping the Colour ceremonies [on June 17], there will be no other event similar to the coronation.”</p> <p>Due to his probable short reign, he’s unlikely to leave the same mark as Queen Elizabeth’s legacy. But he’ll want to be remembered as the king who successfully transferred the monarchy to the next generation of the 21st century and beyond.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> <p><em>This article originally appeared on <a href="https://www.readersdigest.com.au/culture/what-to-expect-at-king-charless-coronation-the-details-and-traditions-explained?pages=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reader's Digest</a>. </em></p>

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Australia's life expectancy altered by Covid wave

<p>Australia’s life expectancy took a plunge during the Omicron wave in 2022.</p> <p>According to new data, it has been revealed that Omicron was the cause for a 17% spike in deaths.</p> <p>Nearly 130,000 people died during the first eight months of 2022 - 13.2% higher than the same period in 2021, and 17% above the historical average.</p> <p>At least 7700 of those deaths were doctor-certified as being caused by Covid19, six times higher than during the entirety of 2021.</p> <p>The majority of the spike in deaths in 2022 are attributable to the “challenge” of an ageing population. This includes dementia and heart conditions, as the proportion of people aged over 65 continues to grow.</p> <p>The increase in deaths between 2021 to 2023 has resulted in a temporary drop in life expectancies, however that’s expected to gradually increase over coming years. It will reach 87 for women and 83.5 for men by 2033.</p> <p>Treasury’s latest Annual Population Statement reveals as the proportion of Australians over the age of 65 grows, so does the burden on younger workers.</p> <p>The report found that the share of those over the retirement age will grow from 16.8% in 2020-21 to 19.9% in 2032-33 before reaching 23.1% in 2060-61.</p> <p>That’s set to be combined with a declining fertility rate, projected to decline from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.62 babies by 2030–31.</p> <p>As a result, the median age will balloon from 38.4 years old in 2020-21 to 40.1 in 2032-33. It was 36.9 in 2008-09.</p> <p>The ageing population is driven by increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates, with the wave of older Australians created by a large baby boomer generation.</p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

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"Thermonuclear bad": Millions of deaths expected in China's Covid wave

<p>Experts have warned deaths will be "in the millions" as China faces an unprecedented Covid wave, which is set to become "thermonuclear bad".</p> <p>The most recent wave of the infections began after Chinese President Xi Jinping finally began to relax his "zero-Covid" policy, which has seen the country under heavy lockdowns for months at a time. </p> <p>Within days of the restrictions easing, Covid cases began to explode, with hospitals already “completely overwhelmed” and bodies reportedly piling up at morgues.</p> <p>Public health officials in China have admitted it is possible that 800 million people could be struck down by Covid in the coming months.</p> <p>However, the nation has officially recorded just two deaths since reopening, although there are now widespread reports that the true figure is far higher, with workers at the Beijing Dongjiao Funeral Parlour – the venue tasked with handling Covid deaths – claiming they were overwhelmed with bodies in recent days.</p> <p>The claims have sparked rumours of a government cover up, with international experts sounding the alarm over a tragedy in the making.</p> <p>Harvard-trained US epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding recently shared a video on Twitter purportedly showing rows of seriously ill Covid patients crammed into a clearly stretched hospital, with some seen lying on the floor or slumped in chairs, warning that things were getting “thermonuclear bad”.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">⚠️THERMONUCLEAR BAD—Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped. Epidemiologist estimate &gt;60% of 🇨🇳 &amp; 10% of Earth’s population likely infected over next 90 days. Deaths likely in the millions—plural. This is just the start—🧵<a href="https://t.co/VAEvF0ALg9">pic.twitter.com/VAEvF0ALg9</a></p> <p>— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1604748747640119296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 19, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p>“Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions dropped,” he posted, adding that epidemiologists estimate more than 60 per cent of China and 10 per cent of the Earth’s population is likely to be infected with the virus over the next 90 days.</p> <p>“Deaths likely in the millions – plural. This is just the start,” he posted.</p> <p>His claims were backed up by a recent forecast by health data analysts Airfinity, which predicted China faces between 1.3 and 2.1 million deaths between now and the end of March.</p> <p>Fellow epidemiologist Ben Cowling agreed with the terrifying figures, telling <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/12/15/1143002538/china-appears-to-be-facing-what-could-be-the-world-s-largest-coronavirus-outbrea" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPR</a> the surge is “going to come very fast, unfortunately”, and predicting that “hospitals are going to come under pressure possibly by the end of this month”.</p> <p>Dr Eric Feigl-Ding went on to explain that nobody would be immune to the fallout from China’s latest crisis, predicting that the world would soon be hit by severe shortages of crucial medical supplies including antibiotics and fever medications.</p> <p>“What happens in China doesn’t stay in China — Wuhan was our lesson three years ago. The global fallout of this 2022-2023 wave will not be small,” he warned, adding that he believed the “global economic fallout from China’s new mega tsunami wave will be ugly”.</p> <p><em>Image credits: Twitter</em></p>

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Alan Jones offloads farm home for less than expected

<p dir="ltr">After a seven-month campaign, Alan Jones’ farm in the NSW Southern Highlands has finally sold, and is believed to have resulted in a smaller profit than initial hopes.</p> <p dir="ltr">The home was sold for an undisclosed price by Liam Griffiths of Inglis Rural Property to a buyer on a walk-in, walk-out basis, meaning that extras such as furniture are included in the sale.</p> <p dir="ltr">However, it is understood that the property sold for less than the initial desired price of $16-$17.5 million, per <em><a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/alan-jones-sells-southern-highlands-farm-discounted-from-17-5m-high-hopes-2-1186063/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Domain</a></em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">First listed in April this year, Griffiths took over the listing in October with a price range of $15 to $16 million.</p> <p dir="ltr">Jones has owned the property, known as Elizabeth Farm and Charleville in honour of his parents, since 2003 and has commissioned a major redesign that saw the two main residences link up with a mutual courtyard, creating a ten-bedroom home.</p> <p dir="ltr">Out of a total of 25 bedrooms, Jones has resided in a two-bedroom wing with a formal and informal living and dining room, a central living room and a home office, while his niece Tonia Taylor and her family have lived in a wing with eight bedrooms, a rumpus room, and central living and dining room.</p> <p dir="ltr">While the home was recently marketed based on its equestrian facilities, it also boasts a tennis court and pavilion built for Taylor and her tennis coach husband, as well as a separate two-bedroom caretaker’s cottage, and a “hootenanny” shed.</p> <p dir="ltr">The property also features landscaped gardens, a private natural forest called Wombat Woods, life-sized elephant and giraffe sculptures, and an ornamental lake and island with dyed water.</p> <p dir="ltr">With the sale of the Fitzroy Falls farm, Jones’ portfolio consists of his Circular Quay apartment purchased for $10.5 million in 2017, as well as his riverfront home in Southport, which he paid $12.25 million for in 2021.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-6a27e41f-7fff-4553-90ba-677859c83832"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Images: Getty Images, Inglis Rural Property</em></p>

Real Estate

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What can we expect from the incoming budget?

<p dir="ltr">Treasurer Jim Chalmers is due to hand down his first budget on Tuesday night, but “pre-budget” announcements have shed some light on what we can expect.</p> <p dir="ltr">The budget hand down will see Mr Chalmers explain how the global economy has deteriorated over this past year.</p> <p dir="ltr">He has said it will probably be necessary to spend more money than the government will raise in taxes over the next couple years, making it a budget “deficit”.</p> <p dir="ltr">While Mr Chalmers has spent the last few months lowering expectations in the lead-up to the reveal of the numbers in this budget, here is what we know about some of the major areas that will be affected.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Parental Leave</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">Australia’s current 20 weeks of paid parental leave will be extended to 26 weeks - but it won’t happen overnight.</p> <p dir="ltr">The Labor government plans to stagger the increase, adding two weeks to the program every year.</p> <p dir="ltr">The current scheme sees the primary caregiver receive 18 weeks of leave paid at the minimum wage, with two additional weeks for the partner.</p> <p dir="ltr">In July 2024, 2025, and 2026, another two weeks will be added to the program, bringing it up to a maximum of 26 weeks (or six months) of paid parental leave.</p> <p dir="ltr">The leave will also be more flexible, with parents able to split the leave more equitably or claimed in its entirety by single parents.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Childcare</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">With Labor promising to make childcare cheaper during the last election, the new government will be increasing the childcare subsidy in this budget.</p> <p dir="ltr">Legislation has already been introduced to parliament to increase the subsidy for early childhood education for 90 percent of families earning $80,000 or less a year.</p> <p dir="ltr">For every $5,000 families earn over $80,000 up to $530,000 a year, the subsidy will decrease by one percentage point.</p> <p dir="ltr">The new subsidy is due to commence from July 2023 and is expected to cost $5.1 billion over the next four years.</p> <p dir="ltr">A 12-month inquiry into rising childcare costs by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has also been announced, with the inquiry said to cost $10.8 million.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Aged Care and Health</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">In the wake of the royal commission into aged care, the government has introduced legislation to parliament to reform the sector, with an expected cost of $2.5 billion.</p> <p dir="ltr">Recommendations made by the commission are also set to be adopted, including raising the standard of care, ensuring aged care homes have a registered nurse on-site 24/7, and increasing the transparency of the sector and its funding.</p> <p dir="ltr">The government has also promised to increase wages for aged care workers, but have yet to disclose a figure.</p> <p dir="ltr">New commitments to subsidise medicine and spend more on Medicare will also feature in this budget, with Health Minister Mark Butler saying that $9.9 billion would be invested in these measures.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Tax Cuts</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">While there have been no changes to the controversial stage three tax cuts in this budget, it has been announced that the Albanese government won’t be extending the low-and-medium income tax offset (LMITO) after it expired on June 30.</p> <p dir="ltr">As a result, tax returns for the 2021-22 financial year will be the last where Australians earning under $126,000 will receive a tax offset of up to $1500.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Electric cars are in, fuel excise is out</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">The six-month fuel excise introduced by the Morrison government, which saw petrol prices drop by over 20 cents a litre, won’t be extended after it ended in September.</p> <p dir="ltr">But, legislation has been introduced to make electric cars cheaper, such as removing fringe benefits tax and import tariffs from eligible electric vehicles.</p> <p dir="ltr">It is hoped the changes will make electric vehicles more affordable, encourage their take-up and help the Albanese government meet its emissions targets.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>NBN</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">Another of Labor’s election promises, the government will be injecting the National Broadband Network (NBN) with a $2.4 billion equity investment over the next four years.</p> <p dir="ltr">The government has said the investment will give 1.5 million homes and businesses the option to upgrade to faster fibre broadband access by 2025.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Wellbeing and climate change</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">In a first for Australia, the budget will dedicate a chapter to wellbeing, including outlining how the government plans to measure wellbeing going forward.</p> <p dir="ltr">For the first time since the Abbott government, the Treasury has also been asked to model the impact of climate change on the economy in this year’s budget.</p> <p dir="ltr">Legislation has been introduced for a disaster ready fund intended to help fund projects that mitigate and prepare for climate change. </p> <p dir="ltr">This will provide up to $200 million a year for projects such as flood levees, cyclone shelters, fire breaks and evacuation centres.</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>General expectations</strong></p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Chalmers has shared some predictions for what will happen over the next few years in relation to food costs, inflation and unemployment.</p> <p dir="ltr">The Treasurer said it’s expected that the price of food will increase significantly later this year due to the floods across NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.</p> <p dir="ltr">He said Treasury officials think annual inflation will peak at around 7.75 percent at the end of this year before declining in mid-2023, while unemployment will likely rise from its current 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent in 2023-24.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-d06182dc-7fff-6e5f-ff8c-c3abc2b1281d"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Jim Chalmers MP (Facebook)</em></p>

Money & Banking

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Expectation vs reality: Reporters share inside look at what cruises are like now

<p dir="ltr">Four reporters have shared their experiences on some of the most popular cruising lines - revealing that their expectations weren’t quite met by the reality of their trip.</p> <p dir="ltr">For Joey Hadden, who booked her first ever cruise on the Royal Caribbean’s Wonder of the Seas, her sessions of relaxing in the sun came with unexpected crowds and difficulties in finding a chair.</p> <p dir="ltr">“I spent more time waiting in lines than I had anticipated. And I saw much of the world from behind other people's heads,” she wrote of her experience in <em><a href="https://www.insider.com/what-its-like-to-go-on-a-cruise-now-photos-2022-10#and-as-she-explored-more-of-the-ship-during-her-weeklong-stay-she-was-surprised-to-find-that-even-the-worlds-largest-cruise-ship-felt-overcrowded-at-times-6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insider</a></em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">She shared that when she first boarded the ship and excitedly went to watch the ocean as they sailed away from the port, that tall, thick glass and not being able to find a spot to stand stopped her from doing so.</p> <p dir="ltr">Fellow <em>Insider </em>reporter Monica Humphries said her experience with crowds aboard Carnival Vista, which was at partial capacity during her trip in July 2021, saw her waiting in long lines to disembark at each port and for help from the service desk.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-34a72885-7fff-8bfa-d8da-1752b0965c73"></span></p> <p dir="ltr">Buffets were another source of contention and crowds for the two reporters, with Humphries also finding that issues with how food was labelled meant she accidentally ate meat twice despite asking what was in her food due to being pescatarian.</p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/Ci2sCi_OmYu/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Ci2sCi_OmYu/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by Amanda Krause (@amandalynn_14)</a></p> </div> </blockquote> <p dir="ltr">Mikhaila Friel, who sailed on the Queen Elizabeth, made the common mistake of sitting by herself on her first night in the dining room - not realising that wherever you sit becomes your table for the rest of the cruise.</p> <p dir="ltr">Surprising temperatures were another common experience, with Friel, Hadden, and Amanda Krause, who travelled on Disney Cruise Line’s Wish, finding that they hadn’t packed enough warm clothes.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Europe in the fall can be pretty chilly, so I wore a coat during my excursions in Amsterdam. However, I wish I'd brought a larger selection of warmer clothes and accessories to wear on outdoor areas of the ship that were affected by the wind, something I hadn't considered,” Friel wrote. </p> <p dir="ltr">“A woolly hat and a pair of gloves certainly wouldn't have gone amiss.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Krause, who had never travelled by ship before, hadn’t expected the chill that came from the cold air-conditioning inside the ship and wished she had brought warmer clothes to avoid shivering at restaurants and bars, as well as in the Walt Disney theatre.</p> <p dir="ltr">While they reported having an enjoyable time during their cruise experiences, each of the travellers encountered hiccoughs and disappointments that made them all the wiser.</p> <p dir="ltr"><span id="docs-internal-guid-f0becb41-7fff-b1b7-92ae-503f52e12a06"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Cruising

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“We’ve been expecting you”: Daniel Craig receives royal honour

<p dir="ltr">Daniel Craig has been awarded one of the highest royal honours - the same one held by the character he is most well-known for playing: James Bond.</p> <p dir="ltr">Craig was appointed a Companion of the Order of St Michael and St George (CMG) during an investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle on Tuesday.</p> <p dir="ltr">In Ian Fleming’s Bond novel, <em>From Russia With Love</em>, a Soviet spy chief notes that 007 received the honour in 1953, and that it’s “an award usually given only on retirement from the Secret Service”.</p> <p dir="ltr">Outside of fiction, spies aren’t the only recipients of the honour, with diplomats and Brits working overseas also receiving it in recognition of their services to the UK “internationally”.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-478ce96c-7fff-9a7f-a77e-852543e43824"></span></p> <p dir="ltr">Craig, who holds citizenship in the US and is listed on the Investiture roll as being from New York, received the CMG in recognition of his service to film and theatre in the 2022 New Year Honours.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">We’ve been expecting you…</p> <p>🎖️The Princess Royal presents Daniel Craig with The Order of St Michael and St George - the same honour held by his character James Bond - in recognition of his outstanding contribution to film and theatre. <a href="https://t.co/X20TP6BogL">pic.twitter.com/X20TP6BogL</a></p> <p>— The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1582319162307018752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 18, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p dir="ltr">He was presented with the medal during Tuesday’s ceremony by Princess Anne, with the royal family sharing a photo of the pair on social media with the playful caption, “We’ve been expecting you”.</p> <p dir="ltr">After 15 years, Craig ended his time as the martini-slinging spy in 2021, starring in the film <em>No Time To Die</em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">As for who will take the reins after Craig, Bond producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson told <em><a href="https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/bond-producers-barbara-broccoli-and-michael-g-wilson-on-the-fate-and-future-of-007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Empire</a></em> that <em>No Time To Die</em> wasn’t the end of the story for 007 - but it could take some time to find the actor’s replacement.</p> <p dir="ltr">"When you change the actor you have to reimagine the direction the film's gonna go in. When you hire an actor, you're hoping you're going to spend a decade at least with them and make four or five or six films with them,” Broccoli said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“It's not just flicking through <em>Spotlight</em> and saying, 'Oh, there's a guy who's 6'1"' We're going to take our time. We want to get a sense of where we want to go with the series and we want to do that before we bring anybody else on.”</p> <p dir="ltr"><span id="docs-internal-guid-d8cb95c6-7fff-c6e0-95a1-43d9141b8e48"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: @RoyalFamily (Twitter)</em></p>

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