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30 years of Friends: how the US sitcom became an enduring global sensation

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-howells-1225412">Richard Howells</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/kings-college-london-1196">King's College London</a> I have to be honest – I didn’t actually watch the first episode of the classic TV series Friends when it originally aired in the US on September 22 1994. Nor did I bother when it first turned up on British television the following spring. But the final instalment was a different matter. I was on a road trip in the US at the time and checked into a motel on the outskirts of Cincinnati, Ohio specially to catch the concluding episode (The Last One) on May 6 2004. Room service arrived in the nick of time. My burger and beer only fuelled my appetite for what was to come – and the anticipation of guessing what the final line would be. So why the big change? How did my attitude evolve from indifference in the nineties to excitedly pulling off the interstate in the noughties? The answer is key to the show’s success – and why it remains so popular today. Back in 1994, the initial premise of Friends seemed to lack promise. The plot revolved round six not especially interesting characters, and none of the cast was especially famous (at least to me). The show was set mainly in two adjacent apartments in Manhattan and a coffee bar called Central Perk to which the characters returned almost every episode and in which (in the best sitcom tradition) the best seats were always available. Crucially, not a lot actually happened. <h2>The power of the ensemble</h2> So why did it work? The first important thing is that Friends was not so much a situation comedy as a character comedy. That meant it did not need a remarkable premise or dramatic incidents to drive the show. It was an ensemble piece in which we gradually got to know the characters and the friends became our friends. The show was built around everyday storylines – crushes, romances and misunderstandings or maybe something as gently amusing as Ross overdoing the teeth whitener. Viewers began to identify with individual characters (<a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/ljune/are-you-more-rachel-or-monica-from-friends-alfsqwp6hf">“are you a Monica or a Rachel?”</a>) or to take sides on the issues of the day. What, for example, are the relationship rules of being “on a break”? <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TIK01MpwWGg?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>One episode of Friends revolves around Ross (David Schwimmer) getting his teeth whitened.</figcaption></figure> Friends was, of course, very well produced, cast and written. As it became even more successful, it survived the normally perilous inclusion of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xHLaISBRmdI">celebrity guest stars</a> and – vitally – it never “jumped the shark” (industry-speak for growing out of its initial premise or building up to dramatic, but ultimately silly, plot gimmicks from which it is impossible to recover). Ultimately, and hearteningly, the six characters all remained friends. Beneath the professional craft and production polish of Friends, it is the concept of friendship, underscored with by the viewer’s sense of aspiration, which ultimately explains the series’ success then and now. One of the functions of popular culture is to provide a better imaginary world than the one we actually inhabit. In some ways this is simply compensation for the reality of the everyday: we dream of that which we do not have. It’s what the great Utopian sociologist Ernst Bloch called <a href="https://www.marxists.org/archive/bloch/hope/introduction.htm">“wishful images in the mirror”</a> – except that the mirror here is a television screen. The world of Monica, Rachel, Joey, Chandler, Phoebe and Ross is certainly a wishful one for many. They live in improbably nice apartments for their jobs (or lack of them), and they are defined by their personalities rather than their careers. They are good looking and well dressed, and the series centres on their ample leisure and social time. Unlike reality, arguments are always overcome and – most importantly of all – friendship always triumphs. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pPM7VxnVViw?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>The first and last scene of Friends.</figcaption></figure> What a contrast this vision provides to the actual lives of so many people today. The real world is beset with isolation, loneliness, sometimes insurmountable problems, occasionally fear and certainly drudgery. But with Friends, as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLisEEwYZvw">chirpy theme song</a> reminds us, there is always someone “there for you” – if only in surrogate. Some critics today carp about the show’s <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2023/04/02/lack-of-diversity-on-friends-mocked-on-snl-after-years-of-criticism-18542168/">lack of diversity</a> and <a href="https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/entertainment/a38817/11-times-friends-sexist-homophobic/">outdated attitudes</a> to the cultural issues of the present day. While this may be true, like TV series, criticism also dates. And series which have long gone into reruns, repeats, streaming and syndication are virtually critic-proof in that they are recommended by word of mouth rather than increasingly ideologically centred reviews. Viewers just want it to be funny. Oh: And in case you were wondering, the final line in the whole of Friends went to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/matthew-perry-the-power-of-celebrities-speaking-publicly-about-their-addiction-216879">late Matthew Perry</a> as Chandler Bing. When Rachel suggests they all go for one last coffee, Chandler quips: “Sure. Where?” <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-howells-1225412">Richard Howells</a>, Emeritus Professor of Cultural Sociology, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/kings-college-london-1196">King's College London</a> Image credits: NBC This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/30-years-of-friends-how-the-us-sitcom-became-an-enduring-global-sensation-239464">original article</a>. </div>

Aussies top global list for biggest gambling losses

A new report has revealed that Australians are the biggest gambling losers in the world, with the average Australian adult gambling away $1635 per year according to the Grattan Institute think tank. That is more than most households pay for power and exceeds the average spend in similar countries like the US and New Zealand. Collectively, Australians lost $24 billion to gambling in 2020-21, with half of that amount lost through poker machines. The rest was lost on sports or race betting, in casinos, and on lotteries and Keno. The report also claims that there are more pokies than post boxes and public toilets across Australia, bringing light to the "lax approach" that has let the industry "run wild". "Gambling products are designed to be addictive, and the consequences can be catastrophic: job loss, bankruptcy, relationship breakdown, family violence, even suicide," the report's authors wrote. People in the Northern Territory and NSW lost the most amount of money, with the two states having the highest concentration of polies in their jurisdiction. The report recommended the federal government ban all gambling advertisements and urged them to cut the number of pokies in each state over time. They also suggested a mandatory pre-commitment system for online gambling and pokies, which would put a limit on daily losses. There are many different ways to get help and information about gambling. Call the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858; use <a href="https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/tools-resources/chat-counselling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">online counselling</a>. Images: SNEHIT PHOTO / Shutterstock.com

Money & Banking

Cash boost for millions of Aussies as indexation kicks in

Millions of Australians are set to get a cash boost within weeks as the Services Australia payments are indexed on top of additional increases to Rent Assistance payments, with the changes coming into effect on September 20 The indexation will be applied to a range of pensions and payments including the Age Pension, Disability Support Pension and Carer Payments, Commonwealth Rent Assistance, JobSeeker, and Parenting Payments. The indexation increases of up to $41.50 a fortnight will vary based on the payments. Centrelink JobSeeker recipients will receive an extra $71.20 per fortnight. “Single JobSeeker Payment recipients with an assessed partial capacity to work of 0 to 14 hours per week will move to the higher rate of JobSeeker, receiving $849.50 a fortnight,” the Department of Social Services said. The maximum rates of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will be increased by 10 per cent. For families with one or two children, he Rent Assistance fortnightly payment will increase by $27.02. Single age pensioners will see an increase of $28.10 to their fortnightly payments, and recipients in a couple will receive a combined $42.40 increase to their payments. The same increase will apply to the Disability Support Pension and Carer Payment. Single recipients receiving the fortnightly Parenting Payment will receive a $19.80 increase, while single recipients without children will get a $15.30 boost. Image: Shutterstock

Money & Banking

The gift of a lifetime: How one busy mum found peace of mind and left a lasting legacy

Anita lives in Sydney with her husband and three sons. She recently chose to include a gift to Lifeline Australia when writing her Will with an online Will-writing service called <a href="https://www.gatheredhere.com.au/c/lifeline-au?gh_cuid=Oxs_YC7byb&gh_cch=%40campaign%2Fchannel%2Fnews" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gathered Here</a>. “My Will has been in the making for the last five years and it has always been pushed down on the prioritisation list due to the high cost of seeing a solicitor and us being a very busy family with young kids,” says Anita. “When I found out about Gathered Here, I thought I may as well check it out, and after 10 minutes I had a Will! The process was simple and straightforward without any complicated legal jargon to cut through. “Within the Will-writing process, summarising my wishes was an important and practical step for me. I want to ease the situation for my loved ones I leave behind by providing emotional and financial certainty in a time of confusion and grief. “There is also an opportunity to nominate and leave gifts to my favourite charities. I have three young boys and having some insight into the mental health challenges in Australia made my decision of allocating a portion of my estate to Lifeline Australia very easy. “Seeing an organisation like Lifeline continuously dedicate their effort, time and professionalism at the highest level to ensure that no one is ever alone in crisis provides me with hope of a better world for my children.” Lifeline is a national charity providing people in Australia experiencing emotional distress with access to 24-hour crisis support and suicide prevention services. Tragically, over 3,000 people in Australia lose their lives to suicide every year. This year, Lifeline will receive well over 1 million contacts from people in crisis. Every 30 seconds, someone in Australia reaches out to Lifeline. Lifeline exists to ensure that no person in Australia has to face their toughest moments alone, and believes that through connection, hope can be found. Lifeline Australia has partnered with Gathered Here to offer you the opportunity to <a href="https://www.gatheredhere.com.au/c/lifeline-au?gh_cuid=Oxs_YC7byb&gh_cch=%40campaign%2Fchannel%2Fnews" target="_blank" rel="noopener">write your Will online for free</a> this Include a Charity Week, which runs from the 2nd – 8th September and is dedicated to raising awareness of how anyone can make a lasting impact to causes that they care about with a gift in their Will. You’ll also be able to make free and unlimited changes to your Will for life. Gathered Here provides end-of-life services through probate, funerals and online Wills. They are supported by an in-house legal team of highly experienced Wills and estate lawyers who have reviewed and vetted the Will writing process. Gathered Here's online Will-writing service allows you to appoint guardians for your children and pets, set out how you want to divide your estate and leave gifts to charities that mean the most to you - like Lifeline. After you've provided for those closest to you, <a href="https://www.gatheredhere.com.au/c/lifeline-au?gh_cuid=Oxs_YC7byb&gh_cch=%40campaign%2Fchannel%2Fnews" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leaving a gift to Lifeline Australia is a lasting and meaningful way that you can have an impact for years to come</a>. You will be helping to prevent suicide and save lives in future generations. Gifts in Wills make a phenomenal difference to charities, including Lifeline. This is why a growing number of people understand that once they have provided for their loved ones, leaving a gift in their Will is one of the most powerful ways they can support Lifeline, without incurring any financial costs during their lifetime. If you would like to learn more, please do not hesitate to get in touch with Lifeline Australia’s Gifts in Wills Specialist Abi Steiner via email at <a href="mailto:giftsinwills@lifeline.org.au" target="_blank" rel="noopener">giftsinwills@lifeline.org.au</a> or phone on 02 8099 1974. If you, or someone you know, are feeling distressed or overwhelmed, we encourage you to connect with Lifeline in the way you feel most comfortable. For 24/7 crisis support, you can phone Lifeline to speak to a Crisis Supporter on 13 11 14, text 0477 131 114, chat to Lifeline online or access the Support Toolkit to self-manage what you’re going through at <a href="http://www.lifeline.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">www.lifeline.org.au</a>. This is a sponsored article produced in partnership with Lifeline Australia. Image: Lifeline Australia

Money & Banking

"He was at peace": Sam Landsberger’s parents break silence after sudden death

The heartbroken family of Sam Landsberger have revealed what he was doing in his final moments before he tragically <a href="https://oversixty.com.au/health/caring/prominent-sports-journo-killed-at-just-35" target="_blank" rel="noopener">died</a> at the age of 35. Landsberger, 35, was struck by a truck driven by a 45-year-old Seaford man at the intersection of Bridge Rd and Church St in Richmond, Melbourne on Tuesday morning. According to Sam's father Jake, his son's final moments were spent on the phone to his mother Anne while he was walking to meet a friend. “Anne was on the phone with Sam when it happened, heard the hit, she heard the commotion, and we’ve been beside ourselves worrying whether she actually possibly distracted him,” Jake told The Herald Sun on Wednesday. ‘The next thing there was commotion, a stranger picked up the phone, and said: ‘Who am I talking to’, so Anne said: ‘I’m Sam’s mother, who are you’." “And he said, ‘I’m sorry to say but your son has just been hit by a vehicle … he’s lying on the ground’. “The man conversed with Sam initially until he lost consciousness’.” Landsberger was rushed to hospital but later died from his extensive injuries. His father said the family received a message from the man who helped Landsberger on Wednesday, saying, “He messaged us and said, ‘I told Sam I was on the phone with his mother and he was at peace knowing that he was communicating with you through me’." Victoria Police have since confirmed the truck driver, 45, who stopped at the scene, underwent “standard” roadside alcohol and drug tests, which were both negative. “He was requested by Melbourne Highway Patrol officers to provide a blood sample as per standard procedure under the Road Safety Act being a driver involved in a serious collision,” a spokesman said. “The driver allegedly refused and was charged on summons with refusing to provide a blood sample.” The man was “immediately” given a notice banning him from driving, and is due to appear at Melbourne Magistrates Court on September 19th. Sam's father said that while his family are "angry" over what happened, they have been overwhelmed by the amount of love they have received since Sam's tragic passing. “I can’t put into words the comfort, the joy and the pride we are getting from that,” Jake said. “By the time we both took two sleeping pills to go to bed about 9pm on Tuesday, I personally had received in excess of 250 messages and Anne probably the same." “The tributes, watching AFL360, seeing The Tackle had been postponed, the stories all over the media … I said to Anne while we sat at our table bawling our eyes out, I wish I could go back to the morgue in the coroner’s court, just wake Sam up briefly and say, ‘Sam, look how much you were loved, look how much you were admired’." “Because he had no idea. He did not realise. The degree to what we’ve seen has blown us to smithereens.” Image credits: Twitter

Caring

WHO declares new global health emergency

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the spread of mpox a global public health emergency, after sounding the alarm following the dramatic rise of cases in Africa. Concerned about the increase in infections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has subsequently spread to at least 10 neighbouring countries, the WHO quickly convened a meeting of experts to study the outbreak. “Today, the emergency committee met and advised me that in its view, the situation constitutes a public health emergency of international concern. I have accepted that advice,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern" target="_self">press conference</a> on Wednesday. A PHEIC is the highest level of alarm under the International Health Regulations, which are legally binding in 196 countries. “The detection and rapid spread of a new clade of mpox in eastern DRC, its detection in neighbouring countries that had not previously reported mpox, and the potential for further spread within Africa and beyond is very worrying,” said Dr Tedros. “It’s clear that a coordinated international response is essential to stop these outbreaks and save lives. This is something that should concern us all.” Since January 2022, 38,465 cases and 1456 deaths have been reported in Africa due to mpox, with cases surging 160 per cent and deaths 19 per cent in recent months compared to 2023. Dr Tedros said the more than 14,000 cases and 524 deaths reported so far this year in DR Congo had already exceeded last year’s total. “The emergence last year and rapid spread of clade 1b in DRC, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring DRC is especially concerning,” he said, citing Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention director, insisted, “We can stop transmission of mpox with a concerted effort.” However, she said experts needed a “much better understanding of the epidemiology” and the transmission patterns of the virus, which would help make sure the limited number of vaccines could be deployed to best effect. Two vaccines for mpox are recommended by WHO immunisation experts. Formerly called monkeypox, the virus was first discovered in humans in 1970 in what is now the DRC. Mpox is an infectious disease caused by a virus transmitted to humans by infected animals but can also be passed from human to human through close physical contact. The disease causes fever, muscular aches and large boil-like skin lesions. A PHEIC has only been declared seven times previously since 2009, over H1N1 swine flu, poliovirus, Ebola, Zika virus, Ebola again, Covid-19 and mpox. Image credits: Manuel Romano/NurPhoto/Shutterstock Editorial

Caring

Massive cost of global outage revealed

Experts have estimated that the global CrowdStrike IT outage has cost more than $1.5 billion in damages, as thousands of businesses were affected by the mass disruption. On Friday afternoon, thousands of workers and business who rely on the Microsoft computer system were hit with the "blue screen of death", as computers, EFTPOS machines and even the airport display screens froze. It was later revealed to be a bug wrought from a software update, originating from Texas-based cyber security firm CrowdStrike. The simple tech fail brought much of the world to its knees for hours, as airports, hospitals, shops, business, media outlets and banks were impacted. One American cyber expert estimated that compensation claims could easily top $1 billion USD ($1.5 billion AUD). However, it looks like the damages will be a lot more than that, as Business NSW estimated that in NSW alone, businesses racked up an eye-watering $200 million bill in damages. CrowdStrike has yet to address millions of questions about how it plans to compensate customers, although the company's CEO George Kurtz said the firm is concentrating all its efforts on fixing the problems, and that he believed most customers had been understanding. “My goal right now is to make sure every customer is back up and running,” Mr Kurtz said. “I think many of the customers understand it’s a complex environment and staying one step ahead of the bad guys requires these content updates.” Hundreds of thousands of businesses are expected to file for compensation with the company, as Patrick Anderson, CEO of US research firm Anderson Economic Group, told <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/21/business/crowdstrike-outage-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CNN</a>, “This outage is affecting far more consumers and businesses in a way that ranges from inconvenience to serious disruptions and resulted in out of pocket costs they can’t get back easily”. Image credits: RAJAT GUPTA/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Editorial/Instagram

Money & Banking

Hospice nurse reveals the key to a peaceful death

Hospice nurse Julie McFadden has shared her best advice for ensuring a peaceful death, after learning from her patients in their final moments. The healthcare professional, who is known for her YouTube channel where she shares information about death to break the taboo of conversations around dying, shared a video about what you can do in life to ensure a peaceful passing. In the recent clip, she shared what you can do in order to have a peaceful death, and she says it comes down to preparedness and acceptance. "That's one of the biggest things I see," she explained. "People who plan for death will tend to have a more peaceful death than those who do not plan for death." "A prepared death versus a non-prepared death - that's the one thing that I've seen in all of my patients," she explained. Julie said she noticed the patients that were "willing to talk about the hard stuff" had a more peaceful death. <iframe title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qoFvKkfIo00?si=Ba5BnxuaKsBVaGAe" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe> "[That means] willing to ask the questions about, 'how long do you think I have? What can I expect? What should I do before I die to make this easier for my family?'" she listed. Julie went on to share a story of when a patient of hers died peacefully surrounded by his family, explaining that the patient was in hospice and had started to decline around 20 minutes after she arrived. "He started having weird changes in breathing, so this was a sudden decline and it looked like he may suddenly die," she recalled, adding the abrupt change was "uncommon actually" in hospice care. "What I noticed was because this family - and him - were so prepared, instead of the family [being] chaotic and reacting in an emotional way - which is very normal - they flipped along right with him," she explained. "[They laid] in bed with him. They understood immediately what was happening. They didn't panic," she shared. Julie said the man was surrounded by his loving family and it was an overwhelmingly emotional experience. "It makes me cry every time I think about it - that vision of them all being able to understand what was happening, even though it was a change they didn't want," she explained. "By the end of that visit he died, so he went from kind of looking okay to dying which is hard - but that family made it a beautiful moment," she said. Image credits: YouTube

Caring

Sombre Aussie site tops global list of most unusual abandoned places

Each year, thousands of people travel to famous abandoned buildings and hotspots to explore what were once important landmarks. Some deserted sites are more popular than others, as these ten sites received tens of thousands of visitors each year. Buzludzha, Bulgaria The Buzludzha Monument in central Bulgaria has been dubbed the tenth most famous abandoned place in the world, each year welcoming over 18,000 people. The site was constructed in 1981 and used by the Bulgarian communist government, and was in use until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989. Ohio State Reformatory, USA After first opening in 1898, the goal of the Ohio State Reformatory was to truly "reform" and rehabilitate its inmates. The facility was closed in 1990, and each year attracts more than 21,000 visitors. Gereja Ayam, Indonesia The uniquely shaped house of prayer in Central Java continues to be a popular tourist attraction in Indonesia, welcoming more than 50,000 travellers each year. Construction on the church was never completed after work was halted in 2000. Lago di Resia Bell Tower, Italy The 14-century sunken bell tower can be found near the border of Switzerland, emerging from the water from a sunken village where travellers claim they can hear bells tolling, even though there are no bells in the tower. The lonely (and probably haunted) tower receives more than 54,000 tourists each year. Canfranc, Spain The abandoned railway station is located in the Spanish municipality of Canfranc, close to the French border and once was a major hub for cross-border railway traffic. It first opened in 1928, but closed its doors by 1970 before it was reimagined as a hotel. Beelitz Military Hospital, Germany The large hospital complex was first built in 1898 as a sanatorium, but was transformed into a hospital at the beginning of WWI and has been abandoned since 1990. It's understood Hitler was treated here after being wounded in the Battle of Somme, which could be the reason more than 64,000 travellers flock there each year. Eastern State Penitentiary, USA The prison in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania is described as one of the country's most historic prisons and has housed some famous prisoners such as Al Capone. The prison was closed in 1971 and is tagged on social media by more than 79,000 every year. Croix-Rouge, Paris Also known as the Red Cross, this Paris train station has been abandoned since 1939 after France entered WWII. The station was only functional for 16 years, and welcomes more than 95,000 curious travellers each year. Teufelsberg, Germany Teufelsberg was one of the largest listening towers in the world during the Cold war. The site was closed in 1972, but still receives around 128,000 every year. Port Arthur, Australia More than a quarter of a million visitors travel to Port Arthur in Tasmania each year. The site itself was first opened as a timber station in 1830 and is known as a symbol of the country's convict past. Image credits: Shutterstock

International Travel

Lion King at 30: the global hit that Disney didn’t believe in

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joel-gray-1539770">Joel Gray</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/sheffield-hallam-university-846">Sheffield Hallam University</a> Thirty years ago audiences were introduced to the epic story of one little lion’s journey to find himself and his family. Little did Disney know what a roaring success the Lion King would be when it was released in 1994. In fact, they fully expected it wouldn’t be. In the 80s and 90s, the movie studio experienced huge hits with the animated films The Little Mermaid (1989) and Beauty and the Beast (1991). This left many of the creatives at the Disney studio keen to <a href="https://www.theringer.com/movies/2019/7/19/20699678/the-lion-king-original-animation-1994">continue making princess stories</a>. Disney executive and Hollywood stalwart Jeffrey Katzenberg was banking on Pocahontas (1995) to be their next hit. Therefore, the Lion King’s development was undertaken by artists and storytellers who were expected to produce something that would only ever be second best. It’s this underdog feeling that resulted in a hungry and competitive creative team producing this original hit story (it’s <a href="https://www.oprahdaily.com/entertainment/tv-movies/a28376309/the-lion-king-hamlet-comparison/">not a direct retelling of Hamlet</a>, as some might think). Taking heed of its immediate film predecessors, Disney ensured the movie put music at the forefront of its storytelling, teaming up film scorist Hans Zimmer (Rain Man, Gladiator) with lyricist Tim Rice (Aladdin, Jesus Christ Superstar) and acclaimed international pop star Elton John. This combination of talent resulted in a soundtrack that won the film two Oscars in 1995 (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB5k_flnqf0">best score</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjgWWjkNbhU">best original song for Can You Feel The Love Tonight?</a>). The songs and music have played a critical role in the cultural and commercial impact of The Lion King. While some elements might change, in nearly every adaptation the songs have remained. The measure of success often used for movies is box office revenue, and the film’s 1994 total was <a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0110357/">US$763 million</a> (£603 million) worldwide. Compare that with Disney’s previous great successes, The Little Mermaid <a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0097757/">US$84 million</a> worldwide and Beauty and the Beast <a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0101414/?ref_=bo_se_r_2">US$249 million</a>. Pocahontas, the great hope, also failed to outperform The Lion King bringing in <a href="https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0114148/?ref_=bo_se_r_1">US$142 million</a>. Its success spawned direct-to-video sequels, including The Lion King 2: Simba’s Pride. In 1997, the film was adapted into a <a href="https://www.thelionking.co.uk/about-the-show">musical theatre production</a>, which, as well as touring globally, is a permanent fixture in the West End of London and on Broadway in New York. Then in 2019, Disney released <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TavVZMewpY">a live-action remake</a>. And now, as the original celebrates its 30th anniversary, the prequel, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjQG-a7d41Q">Mufasa: The Lion King</a>, will hit cinemas. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lFzVJEksoDY?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> Disney has cleverly followed the fans with these iterations. The 1997 stage adaptation tapped into the late <a href="https://www.onstageblog.com/columns/2017/4/13/the-50-best-musicals-of-the-1990s">90s resurgence in live musical theatre</a>. Since its debut the musical has received 70 major arts awards, including the 1999 Grammy for best musical show album and the 1999 Laurence Olivier awards for best choreography and best costume design. Then 25 years after the original’s release, Disney decided to remake The Lion King (following other hits such as Beauty and the Beast remake in 2017) – but the social environment had changed. In 2019, the “live action” remake of the movie ensured that this story set in Africa was rightly <a href="https://toofab.com/2019/07/04/original-lion-king-had-35-percent-black-main-cast/">cast with majority Black performers</a>. The cast introduced new names, but also attracted huge stars, including Beyoncé Knowles-Carter who voiced the character Nala. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/MjQG-a7d41Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> After The Lion King’s early success, Disney’s subsequent movies (including Pocahontas) did not live up to commercial expectations. From the mid-90s, Disney’s dominance at the animated movie box office was overtaken by Pixar and their hits, including Toy Story. Disney experienced inconsistent success until 2010 when they embraced CGI 3D animation as the primary production technique for their movies. This new style was applied to their tried-and-tested format of retelling classic fairytales and placing music at the heart of the storytelling, leading to hits such as Tangled (2010) and Frozen (2013). The Lion King’s enduring success should be a stand-out moment of clarity for Disney: with a focus on good quality animation and solid music storytelling, even the unexpected can become a roaring success.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233024/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/joel-gray-1539770">Joel Gray</a>, Associate Dean for Teaching and Learning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/sheffield-hallam-university-846">Sheffield Hallam University</a> Image credits: Walt Disney Pictures This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lion-king-at-30-the-global-hit-that-disney-didnt-believe-in-233024">original article</a>. </div>

Movies

New global appeal launched for one of Australia's most wanted men

Police have ramped up their efforts to locate one of Australia's most wanted men, who they believe fled the country over two decades ago. In 1999, James Dalamangas allegedly fled to Greece after his believed involvement in the death of a Sydney father. George Giannopoulos attended a Belmore nightclub in Sydney’s south west on April 25th 1999 when he was stabbed twice and died while trying to intervene in a fight between two patrons. A warrant was issued for Mr Dalamangas' arrest the next day over his alleged involvement in the brutal murder, although he was never found. Dalamangas, who worked as a bouncer, is also wanted for questioning over the 1997 shooting murder of another Kings Cross bouncer Tim Voukelates. He was also involved in a brawl at Star City Casino where his brother Peter was killed in 1998. Police believe he fled the country after Mr Giannopoulos' death, with authorities believing he is still living in Greece. After attempts to extradite Mr Dalamangas from Greece were not successful in 2003, Greek authorities agreed to commence the prosecution of Mr Dalamangas over his alleged role in the murder, but the process was suspended in 2007 when he couldn't be found. As the 25-year-long Greek statute of limitations nears, police are re-appealing for anyone with information to come forward, particularly if they can assist in locating Mr Dalamangas in Greece. “A warrant was issued for Mr Dalamangas’ arrest; however, despite extensive inquiries, he has never been located,” police said in a statement. Detectives have released an age progression photo of Dalamangas, who would now be aged 53. Dalamangas is Mediterranean in appearance, between 180 and 185cm tall with a medium build, dark hair and brown eyes. Image credits: AFP

Legal

"Do you hear it?": Worldwide hum global mystery baffles scientists

A perplexing phenomenon known as "The Worldwide Hum" has been capturing the attention of scientists and citizens alike, as an unusual low-frequency noise continues to puzzle experts. This mysterious hum, first recorded in 2012, has been reported by thousands of people worldwide, sparking investigations, online discussions and even <a href="https://www.thehum.info/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the creation of an interactive map</a> documenting instances of the enigmatic sound. As researchers strive to unravel the mystery, individuals share their experiences, raising questions about its origin and effects. Described as a low rumbling or droning sound, "the hum" is often likened to the idling of a car or truck engine. What makes this phenomenon particularly intriguing is that it is not universally heard, with reports of the hum being exclusive to certain individuals. Some claim it is more pronounced at night than during the day, and louder indoors than outdoors. One Reddit user even compared it to the low-frequency vibrations felt when a passenger jet flies overhead. Since its first documentation, more than 6,500 instances of the hum have been reported globally, with new cases continually emerging. The interactive user-generated World Hum Map and Database Project captures the experiences of those who have encountered the sound, providing a comprehensive overview of its widespread occurrence. In some regions, authorities such as the Environment Protection Authority (EPA) have conducted investigations, as was the case in the NSW Waverley Council ten years ago. Despite these efforts, the source of the hum remains elusive. Individuals affected by the mysterious noise often find solace in online communities, where they share their experiences and discuss possible explanations. Some describe feeling as though they are "going insane", and say that the psychological impact of the persistent hum is actually very severe. Facebook support groups have become a platform for individuals to connect, share anecdotes and speculate about the origin of the sound. Theories range from the mundane – such as the use of headphones causing collective tinnitus – to more complex environmental factors. While tinnitus, a symptom of auditory system issues, has been proposed as a potential explanation, it does not account for the collective experience of the hum. Various theories, including industrial plants, ocean waves, lightning strikes and the proliferation of mobile phone towers, have been suggested over the years. However, none of these explanations have gained widespread acceptance or provided a conclusive answer. Dr Glen MacPherson, who initiated the World Hum Map and Database Project, experienced the hum firsthand on Canada's Sunshine Coast. Having debunked the idea of "hum hotspots", Dr MacPherson theorises that the hum may be a subjective phenomenon, akin to tinnitus, originating from within the individual rather than an external source. His 11 years of research highlight the complexity of the mystery, challenging initial assumptions and pointing towards the need for further investigation. As "The Worldwide Hum" continues to captivate the curiosity of scientists and citizens worldwide, the quest for understanding remains elusive. While theories abound, the true origin of the hum remains unknown, leaving both experts and individuals alike intrigued by a phenomenon that transcends geographic boundaries and defies conventional explanations. Image: Getty

Body

The BMI isn’t all its cracked up to be

The obsession people have with weight is nothing new. But as the relationship between science and weight evolves, health professionals are increasingly advocating for a shift away from one of the most often used tools as an individual measure of health. <div class="copy"> The Body Mass Index – or BMI – has been used for the past half century as a standard measurement tool for weight and obesity. It’s calculated by dividing a person’s weight in kilograms by the square of their height in metres. This produces a figure which is indexed on a spectrum of weight ranges. A BMI below 18.5 is considered underweight, above 25 is overweight, and above 30 is obese. The latest episode of Debunks, a new podcast from Cosmos, investigates how useful the BMI actually is for assessing health. Health advocacy bodies, health insurers and government departments all make reference to the BMI as being a globally recognised standard for weight classification. Most – but not all – <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/bmi-overweight-obese-healthy-deaths/">acknowledge that the tool is imperfect</a>. Its <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/body-and-mind/body-mass-index-miscalculation/">simple arithmetic</a> is based on a system devised by 19th-century Belgian mathematician Adolphe Quetelet, who was an early pioneer of the social sciences and the use of data to understand human trends. The so-called ‘Quetelet Index’ was first described in 1832 as a means of trying to identify a calculation for the average man, first by conducting cross-sectional studies of infants and then adults. The need to consider weight as an indicator for health, mortality and morbidity, saw scientists trial several measurements before settling on Quetelet’s formula and rebranding it as the BMI in 1972. The problem? The BMI was largely based on studies of Anglo-Saxon populations. This is one of the biggest limitations often recognised by health groups. The Australian Department of Health, for instance, notes that a healthy BMI range is generally lower for people of Asian backgrounds, and higher for those of Polynesian backgrounds. But ethnicity isn’t the only limiting factor. Age and pregnancy status also play a part. Even athletes with more lean muscle (which weighs more than fat) might also find the standard BMI doesn’t capture their health status accurately. Diets and lifestyles have also shifted from the 19th century Belgian standard, and even from those of 50 years ago. Health professionals have long supported a shift away from the BMI being used as a rolled gold indicator of individual health, and medical professionals are beginning to take a wider view of patient health. “There has been a recent change in the position from the [US] National Academies of Nutrition and Dietetics surrounding BMI and there are shifts in the guidelines around BMI for medical diagnosis,” Dr Emma Beckett, a molecular nutritionist at the University of Newcastle, tells Debunks. The same goes for other measurements like waist-to-hip ratios and waist circumference. These metrics are often used by researchers conducting large population studies, but they don’t necessarily explain a person’s ‘health picture’. “Because we measure them in so many of our research studies, people mistakenly believe they are the most important markers of health and it’s just not true. Health is so much more complicated,” Beckett says. “The ‘normal’ [BMI] category is the one with the lowest health risks, but it doesn’t mean being in that category means you have no health risks and it doesn’t mean if you just get yourself into that category and change nothing else, there are no health risks.” On the latest series of Debunks, a podcast from Cosmos and 9Podcasts, find out how weight – and measurements like the BMI – are much more complicated than they might seem. <iframe title="Weight: Should you care about your BMI?" src="https://omny.fm/shows/debunks/weight-should-you-care-about-your-bmi/embed" width="100%" height="180" frameborder="0"></iframe> <div>Image credits: Shutterstock</div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; padding-top: 20px; padding-right: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px;"><a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/health/body-and-mind/the-bmi-isnt-all-its-cracked-up-to-be/">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="null">Cosmos</a>. </div> </div>

Body

Will we still have antibiotics in 50 years? We asked 7 global experts

Almost since antibiotics were <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2937522/#:%7E:text=Since%20the%20introduction%20in%201937,operate%20some%2070%20years%20later.">first discovered</a>, we’ve been aware bacteria can learn how to overcome these medicines, a phenomenon known as antimicrobial resistance. The World Health Organization says we’re currently <a href="https://www.who.int/news/item/20-09-2017-the-world-is-running-out-of-antibiotics-who-report-confirms">losing to the bugs</a>, with resistance increasing and too few new antibiotics in the pipeline. We wanted to know whether experts around the world think we will still have effective antibiotics in 50 years. Seven out of seven experts said yes. Lori Burrows - Biochemist, Canada Yes! Antibiotics are a crucial component of modern medicine, and we can't afford to lose them. Despite the rise of resistance in important pathogens (bugs), and the substantial decrease in new drugs in development, we have multiple tools at our disposal to protect antibiotics. Stewardship - the principle of using antibiotics only when absolutely necessary - is key to maintaining the usefulness of current antibiotics and preventing resistance to new drugs from arising. New diagnostics, such as the rapid tests that became widely available during the pandemic, can inform stewardship efforts, reducing inappropriate antibiotic use for viral diseases. Finally, researchers continue to find creative ways, including the use of powerful artificial intelligence approaches, to identify antimicrobial compounds with new targets or new modes of action. Other promising tactics include using viruses that naturally kill bacteria, stimulating the host's immune system to fight the bacteria, or combining existing antibiotics with molecules that can enhance antibiotic activity by, for example, increasing uptake or blocking resistance. André Hudson - Biochemist, United States Yes. The real question is not whether we will have antibiotics 50 years from now, but what form of antibiotics will be used. Most antibiotics we use today are modelled after natural products isolated from organisms such as fungi and plants. The use of <a href="https://news.mit.edu/2020/artificial-intelligence-identifies-new-antibiotic-0220">AI</a>, machine learning, and other <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/25/artificial-intelligence-antibiotic-deadly-superbug-hospital">computational tools</a> to help design novel, unnatural compounds that can circumvent the evolution of antibiotic resistance are only in the very early stages of development. Many of the traditional medicines such as penicillins and other common antibiotics of today which are already waning in efficacy, will probably be of very little use in 50 years. Over time, with the aid of new technology, I predict we will have new medicines to fight bacterial infections. Ray Robins-Browne - Microbiologist, Australia Yes, we will have antibiotics (by which I mean antimicrobial drugs), because people will still get infections despite advances in immunisation and other forms of prevention. Having said this, drugs of the future will be quite different from those we use today, which will have become obsolete well within the next 50 years. The new drugs will have a narrow spectrum, meaning they will be targeted directly at the specific cause of the infection, which we will determine by using rapid, point-of-care diagnostic tests, similar to the RATS we currently use to diagnose COVID. Antimicrobials of the future won’t kill bacteria or limit their growth, because this encourages the development of resistance. Instead, they will limit the ability of the bacteria to cause disease or evade our immune systems. Raúl Rivas González - Microbiologist, Spain Yes, but not without effort. Currently, antimicrobial resistance is a leading cause of death globally, and will continue to rise. But in my opinion, there will still be useful antibiotics to combat bacterial infections within 50 years. To achieve this, innovation and investment is required. Artificial intelligence may even be able to help. An example is the compound "RS102895", which eliminates the multi-resistant superbug Acinetobacter baumannii. This was identified through a machine learning algorithm. The future of antibiotics requires substantial changes in the search for new active molecules and in the design of therapies that can eliminate bacteria without developing resistance. We are on the right path. An example is the discovery of clovibactin, recently isolated from uncultured soil bacteria. Clovibactin effectively kills antibiotic-resistant gram-positive bacteria without generating detectable resistance. Future antimicrobial therapy may consist of new antibiotics, viruses that kill bacteria, specific antibodies, drugs that counter antibiotic resistance, and other new technology. Fidelma Fitzpatrick - Microbiologist, United Kingdom Yes, but not many. Without rapid scale-up of measures to curtail the "<a href="https://www.oecd.org/health/embracing-a-one-health-framework-to-fight-antimicrobial-resistance-ce44c755-en.htm">alarming global health threat</a>" of antimicrobial resistance by 2073, there will be few effective antibiotics left to treat sepsis. The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/covid19.html">Centre for Disease Control</a> has indicated a reversal of progress following the pandemic, when all focus in healthcare, government and society was on COVID. Without an approach targeting people, animals, agri-food systems and the environment, antimicrobial resistance will continue its upward trajectory. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/publication/drug-resistant-infections-a-threat-to-our-economic-future">Doing nothing</a> is unacceptable – lives will be lost, healthcare expenditure will increase and workforce productivity will suffer. The highest burden of antimicrobial resistance is in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02724-0/fulltext">low-income countries</a>. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK543407/">Action plans</a> exist in most OECD, European and G20 countries. In all countries plans need to be funded and implemented across all relevant sectors as above. Better integrated data to track antibiotic use and resistance across human and animal health and the environment, in addition to research and development for new antibiotics, vaccines and diagnostics, will be necessary. Juliana Côrrea - Public health expert, Brazil Yes. However, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0188440905002730?via%3Dihub">available data</a> suggest that without a shift in the political agenda towards the control and prevention of antimicrobial resistance, several antibiotics will have lost their utility. The problem of bacterial resistance is not new and the risk of antibiotics becoming ineffective in the face of the evolutionary capacity of bacteria is one of the main problems facing global health. The creation of policies to promote the appropriate use of this resource has not progressed at the same speed as inappropriate use in human and animal health and in agricultural production. The factors that impact antibiotic use are complex and vary according to local contexts. The response to the problem goes far beyond controlling use at the individual level. We must recognise the social, political, and economic dimensions in proposing more effective governance. Yori Yuliandra - Pharmacist, Indonesia Yes. Despite their <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/antimicrobial-resistance">reduced efficacy over time</a>, antibiotics continue to be produced every year. Researchers are tirelessly working to develop new and more effective antibiotics. And researchers are actively exploring combinations of antibiotics to enhance their efficacy. While antimicrobial resistance is rising, researchers have been making remarkable progress in addressing this issue. They have developed innovative antibiotic classes such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.4155/fmc-2016-0041">FtsZ inhibitors</a> which can inhibit cell division, a process necessary for bacteria to multiply. <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240021303">Clinical trials</a> are currently taking place. A deeper understanding of the molecular aspects of bacterial resistance has led to the discovery of new treatment strategies, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1039/D2MD00263A">inhibition of key enzymes</a> that play a pivotal role in bugs becoming resistant. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-021-02586-0">advances in computer technology</a> have greatly accelerated drug discovery and development efforts, offering hope for the rapid discovery of new antibiotics and treatment strategies. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-we-still-have-antibiotics-in-50-years-we-asked-7-global-experts-214950" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Body

6 reasons why global temperatures are spiking right now

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> The world is very warm right now. We’re not only seeing record temperatures, but the records are being broken by record-wide margins. Take the preliminary September global-average temperature anomaly of 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, for example. It’s an incredible 0.5°C above the previous record. So why is the world so incredibly hot right now? And what does it mean for keeping our Paris Agreement targets? Here are six contributing factors – with climate change the main reason temperatures are so high. <h2>1. El Niño</h2> One reason for the exceptional heat is we are in a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">significant El Niño</a> that is still strengthening. During El Niño we see warming of the surface ocean over much of the tropical Pacific. This warming, and the effects of El Niño in other parts of the world, raises global average temperatures by <a href="https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/01/2022-updates-to-the-temperature-records/">about 0.1 to 0.2°C</a>. Taking into account the fact we’ve just come out of a triple La Niña, which cools global average temperatures slightly, and the fact this is the first major El Niño in eight years, it’s not too surprising we’re seeing unusually high temperatures at the moment. Still, El Niño alone isn’t enough to explain the crazily high temperatures the world is experiencing. <h2>2. Falling pollution</h2> Air pollution from human activities cools the planet and has offset some of the warming caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions. There have been efforts to reduce this pollution – since 2020 there has been an <a href="https://sdg.iisd.org/news/imo-advances-measures-to-reduce-emissions-from-international-shipping/">international agreement</a> to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions from the global shipping industry. It has been speculated this cleaner air has contributed to the recent heat, particularly over the record-warm <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-north-atlantic-ocean-temperatures-contribute-extreme-marine-heatwaves">north Atlantic</a> and Pacific regions with high shipping traffic. It’s likely this is contributing to the extreme high global temperatures – but only on the order of hundredths of a degree. <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/">Recent analysis</a> suggests the effect of the 2020 shipping agreement is about an extra 0.05°C warming by 2050. <h2>3. Increasing solar activity</h2> While falling pollution levels mean more of the Sun’s energy reaches Earth’s surface, the amount of the energy the Sun emits is itself variable. There are different solar cycles, but an 11-year cycle is the most relevant one to today’s climate. The Sun is becoming <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-activity-2024-scn/index.html">more active</a> from a minimum in late 2019. This is also contributing a small amount to the spike in global temperatures. Overall, increasing solar activity is contributing only hundredths of a degree at most to the recent global heat. <h2>4. Water vapour from Hunga Tonga eruption</h2> On January 15 2022 the underwater <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/pia26006-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-eruption">Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcano erupted</a> in the South Pacific Ocean, sending large amounts of water vapour high up into the upper atmosphere. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, so increasing its concentration in the atmosphere in this way does intensify the greenhouse effect. Even though the eruption happened almost two years ago, it’s still having a small warming effect on the planet. However, as with the reduced pollution and increasing solar activity, we’re talking about hundredths of a degree. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6oANPi-SWN0?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>5. Bad luck</h2> We see variability in global temperatures from one year to the next even without factors like El Niño or major changes in pollution. Part of the reason this September was so extreme was likely due to weather systems being in the right place to heat the land surface. When we have persistent high-pressure systems over land regions, as seen recently over places like <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/01/autumn-heat-continues-in-europe-after-record-breaking-september">western Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-19/australia-weather-september-heat-records-tumble/102870294">Australia</a>, we see local temperatures rise and the conditions for unseasonable heat. As water requires more energy to warm and the ocean moves around, we don’t see the same quick response in temperatures over the seas when we have high-pressure systems. The positioning of weather systems warming up many land areas coupled with persistent ocean heat is likely a contributor to the global-average heat too. <h2>6. Climate change</h2> By far the biggest contributor to the overall +1.7°C global temperature anomaly is human-caused climate change. Overall, humanity’s effect on the climate has been a global warming of <a href="https://www.globalwarmingindex.org/">about 1.2°C</a>. The record-high rate of greenhouse gas emissions means we should expect global warming to accelerate too. While humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions explain the trend seen in September temperatures over many decades, they don’t really explain the big difference from last September (when the greenhouse effect was almost as strong as it is today) and September 2023. Much of the difference between this year and last comes back to the switch from La Niña to El Niño, and the right weather systems in the right place at the right time. <h2>The upshot: we need to accelerate climate action</h2> September 2023 shows that with a combination of climate change and other factors aligning we can see alarmingly high temperatures. These anomalies may appear to be above the 1.5°C global warming level referred to in the Paris Agreement, but that’s about keeping <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/briefings/understanding-the-paris-agreements-long-term-temperature-goal/">long-term global warming</a> to low levels and not individual months of heat. But we are seeing the effects of climate change unfolding more and more clearly. The most vulnerable are suffering the biggest impacts as wealthier nations continue to emit the largest proportion of greenhouse gases. Humanity must accelerate the path to net zero to prevent more record-shattering global temperatures and damaging extreme events.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215140/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/6-reasons-why-global-temperatures-are-spiking-right-now-215140">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

The body mass index can’t tell us if we’re healthy. Here’s what we should use instead

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachael-jefferson-buchanan-297850">Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-sturt-university-849">Charles Sturt University</a> We’ve known for some time the <a href="https://theconversation.com/using-bmi-to-measure-your-health-is-nonsense-heres-why-180412">body mass index (BMI) is an inaccurate measuring stick</a> for assessing someone’s weight and associated health. But it continues to be the go-to tool for medical doctors, population researchers and personal trainers. Why is such an imperfect tool still being used, and what should we use instead? <h2>First, what is BMI?</h2> BMI is an internationally recognised screening method for sorting people into one of four weight categories: underweight (BMI less than 18.5), normal weight (18.5 to 24.9), overweight (25.0 to 29.9) or obese (30 or greater). It’s a value <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyweight/assessing/bmi/index.html">calculated</a> by a measure of someone’s mass (weight) divided by the square of their height. <h2>Who invented BMI?</h2> Belgian mathematician <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adolphe-Quetelet">Lambert Adolphe Jacques Quetelet</a> (1796-1874) devised the BMI in 1832, as a mathematical model to chart the average Western European man’s <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17890752/">physical characteristics</a>. It was initially called the <a href="https://www.msdmanuals.com/en-au/professional/multimedia/clinical-calculator/body-mass-index-quetelets-index">Quetelet Index</a> and was never meant to be used as a medical assessment tool. The Quetelex Index was renamed the “body mass index” in 1972. <h2>What’s wrong with the BMI?</h2> Using a mathematical formula to give a full picture of someone’s health is just not possible. The BMI <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyweight/assessing/bmi/adult_bmi/index.html">does not measure excess body fat</a>, it just measures “excess” weight. It does not distinguish between excess body fat or bone mass or musculature, and does not interpret the distribution of fat (which is a <a href="https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/abdominal-fat-and-what-to-do-about-it">predictor</a> of health, including type 2 diabetes, metabolic disorders, and heart disease). It also cannot tell the difference between social variables such as sex, age, and ethnicity. Given Quetelet’s formula used only Western European men, the findings are not appropriate for many other groups, including non-European ethnicities, post-menopausal women and pregnant women. The medical profession’s <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37432007/">overreliance on BMI</a> may be <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2930234/">harming patients’ health</a> as it ignores much of what makes us healthy and focuses only on mass. <h2>What should we use instead?</h2> Rather than seeing BMI as the primary diagnostic test for determining a person’s health, it should be used in conjunction with other measures and considerations. Since researchers know belly fat around our vital organs carries the most <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3324">health risk</a>, <a href="https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/obesity-prevention-source/obesity-definition/how-to-measure-body-fatness/">waist circumference</a>, waist-to-hip ratio or waist-to-height ratio offer more accurate measurements of health. Waist circumference: is an effective measure of fat distribution, particularly for athletes who carry less fat and more muscle. It’s most useful as a predictor of health when <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7027970/">combined with the BMI</a>. Waist circumference should be less than 94cm for men and 80cm for women for <a href="https://www.heartfoundation.org.au/bundles/your-heart/waist-measurement">optimal health</a>, as measured from halfway between the bottom of your ribs and your hip bones. Waist-to-hip ratio: calculates the proportion of your body fat and how much is stored on your waist, hips, and buttocks. It’s the waist measurement divided by hip measurement and according to the World Health Organisation it should be <a href="https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/44583/9789241501491_eng.pdf;jsessionid=A119D165CFFF5E7B5BDBD51D9DD25684?sequence=1">0.85 or less for women, and 0.9 or less in men</a> to reduce health risks. It’s especially beneficial in predicting health outcomes in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40200-021-00882-4">older people</a>, as the ageing process alters the body proportions on which BMI is founded. This is because fat mass increases and muscle mass decreases with age. Waist-to-height ratio: is height divided by waist circumference, and it’s <a href="https://www.nice.org.uk/news/article/keep-the-size-of-your-waist-to-less-than-half-of-your-height-updated-nice-draft-guideline-recommends">recommended</a> a person’s waist circumference be kept at less than half their height. Some studies have found this measure is <a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/6/3/e010159">most strongly correlated</a> with health predictions. Body composition and body fat percentage can also be calculated through <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1A9m0wO17g">skinfold measurement tests</a>, by assessing specific locations on the body (such as the abdomen, triceps or quadriceps) with skin callipers. Additional ways to gauge your heart health include asking your doctor to monitor your cholesterol and blood pressure. These more formal tests can be combined with a review of lifestyle, diet, physical activity, and family medical history. <h2>What makes us healthy apart from weight?</h2> A diet including whole grains, low fat protein sources such as fish and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legume">legumes</a>, eggs, yoghurt, cheese, milk, nuts, seeds, and plenty of fresh fruit and vegetables <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heart-disease/in-depth/heart-healthy-diet/art-20047702">reduces our risk</a> of heart and vessel disease. Limiting <a href="https://www.foodstandards.gov.au/consumer/generalissues/Pages/processed-foods.aspx">processed food</a> and sugary snacks, as well as <a href="https://www.sahealth.sa.gov.au/wps/wcm/connect/public+content/sa+health+internet/healthy+living/healthy+eating/healthy+eating+tips/eat+less+saturated+and+trans+fats">saturated and trans fats</a> can help us with weight management and ward off diet-related illnesses. Being physically active most days of the week improves general health. This <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/topics/physical-activity-and-exercise/physical-activity-and-exercise-guidelines-for-all-australians">includes</a> two sessions of strength training per week, and 2.5 to five hours of moderate cardio activity or 1.25 to 2.5 hours of vigorous cardio activity. Weight is just one aspect of health, and there are much better measurements than BMI.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211190/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachael-jefferson-buchanan-297850">Rachael Jefferson-Buchanan</a>, Lecturer in Human Movement Studies (Health and PE) and Creative Arts, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/charles-sturt-university-849">Charles Sturt University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-body-mass-index-cant-tell-us-if-were-healthy-heres-what-we-should-use-instead-211190">original article</a>.

Body

Research reveals who’s been hit hardest by global warming in their lifetime - and the answer may surprise you

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ed-hawkins-104793">Ed Hawkins</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-douglas-1460792">Hunter Douglas</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/te-herenga-waka-victoria-university-of-wellington-1200">Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/luke-harrington-489028">Luke Harrington</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-waikato-781">University of Waikato</a> Earth is warming and the signs of climate change are everywhere. We’ve seen it in the past few weeks as temperatures hit record highs around the world – both in the Northern Hemisphere and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">warm Australian winter</a>. Global warming is caused by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, which continue at <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">near-record pace</a>. These emissions are predominantly generated by people in the world’s wealthiest regions. Our world-first analysis, <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/aceff2">published today</a>, examines the experience of global warming over the lifetimes of people around the world: young and old, rich and poor. We sought to identify who has perceived warmer temperatures most keenly. We found middle-aged people in equatorial regions have lived through the most perceptible warming in their lifetimes. But many young people in lower-income countries could experience unrecognisable changes in their local climate later in life, unless the world rapidly tackles climate change. <h2>Measuring the climate change experience</h2> We examined temperature data and population demographics information from around the world. Key to our analysis was the fact that not all warming is due to human activity. Some of it is caused by natural, year-to-year variations in Earth’s climate. These natural ups and downs are due to a number of factors. They include variations in the energy Earth receives from the sun, the effects of volcanic eruptions, and transfers of heat between the atmosphere and the ocean. This variability is stronger in mid-to-high-latitude parts of the world (those further from the equator) than in low-latitude areas (in equatorial regions). That’s because the weather systems further away from the equator draw in hot or cold air from neighbouring areas, but equatorial areas don’t receive cold air at all. That’s why, for example, the annual average temperature in New York is naturally more variable than in the city of Kinshasa (in the Democratic Republic of Congo). To account for this, we applied what’s known as the “<a href="https://archive.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/346.htm#:%7E:text=The%20%EF%BF%BDsignal%20to%20noise,to%20this%20natural%20variability%20noise.">signal-to-noise ratio</a>” at each location we studied. That allowed us to separate the strength of the climate change “signal” from the “noise” of natural variability. Making this distinction is important. The less naturally variable the temperature, the clearer the effects of warming. So warming in Kinshasa over the past 50 years has been much more perceptible than in New York. Our study examined two central questions. First, we wanted to know, for every location in the world, how clearly global warming could be perceived, relative to natural temperature variability. Second, we wanted to know where this perceived change was most clear over human lifetimes. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541474/original/file-20230807-17-ogjdti.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Annual-average temperatures at four major cities with signal-to-noise ratios shown for 20, 50 and 80 years up to 2021." /></a><figcaption>Annual-average temperatures at four major cities with signal-to-noise ratios shown for 20, 50 and 80 years up to 2021. Author provided</figcaption></figure> <h2>Our results</h2> So what did we find? As expected, the most perceptible warming is found in tropical regions – those near the equator. This includes developing parts of the world that constitute the Global South – such as Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia. Household incomes in the Global South are typically lower than in industrialised nations (known as the Global North). We might, then, conclude people in the poorest parts of the world have experienced the most perceptible global warming over their lifetimes. But that’s not always the case. Why? Because most parts of the Global South have younger populations than wealthier regions. And some people under the age of 20, including in northern India and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, haven’t experienced warming over their lifetimes. In these places, the lack of recent warming is likely down to a few factors: natural climate variability, and the local cooling effect of particles released into the atmosphere from <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b7a">pollution</a> and changes in land use. There’s another complication. Some populated regions of the world also experienced slight cooling in the mid-20th century, primarily driven by human-caused <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10946">aerosol emissions</a>. So, many people born earlier than the 1950s have experienced less perceptible warming in their local area than those born in the 1960s and 1970s. This may seem counter-intuitive. But a cooling trend in the first few decades of one’s life means the warming experienced over an entire lifespan (from birth until today) is smaller and less detectable. So what does all this mean? People in equatorial areas born in the 1960s and 1970s – now aged between about 45 and 65 – have experienced more perceptible warming than anyone else on Earth. <h2>Rich countries must act</h2> Our findings are important, for several reasons. Identifying who has experienced significant global warming in their lives may help explain <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2660">attitudes to tackling climate change</a>. Our findings also raise significant issues of fairness and equity. Humanity will continue to warm the planet until we reach global net-zero emissions. This means many young people in lower-income countries may, later in life, experience a local climate that is unrecognisable to that of their youth. Of course, warming temperatures are not the only way people experience climate change. Others include sea-level rise, more intense drought and rainfall extremes. We know many of these impacts are felt most acutely by <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/11/climate-change-is-devastating-the-global-south">the most vulnerable populations</a>. Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are much higher in the Global North, due to economic development. To address this inequality, rich industrialised nations must take a leading role in reducing emissions to net-zero, and helping vulnerable countries adapt to climate change.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211108/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ed-hawkins-104793">Ed Hawkins</a>, Professor of Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-reading-902">University of Reading</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hunter-douglas-1460792">Hunter Douglas</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/te-herenga-waka-victoria-university-of-wellington-1200">Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/luke-harrington-489028">Luke Harrington</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-waikato-781">University of Waikato</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/research-reveals-whos-been-hit-hardest-by-global-warming-in-their-lifetime-and-the-answer-may-surprise-you-211108">original article</a>.

Travel Trouble

The art of meditation

Meditation is essentially relaxation time and is based on the art of focusing 100 per cent of your attention on one thing. The practice comes with many health benefits including increased concentration, decreased anxiety and improved mental and physical health. While it can be challenge to set aside regular meditation time, the benefits you gain in as little as five minutes will soon have you looking forward to your “me” time. Here are some tips to help you get the most out of it. Choose a convenient time. You can meditate any time, whether you’re already feeling relaxed or need to de-stress. The best time is when you’re not likely to be disturbed and are free to relax. Sunrise and sunset are ideal, particularly first thing in the morning – it is quieter, your mind isn’t filled with the usual clutter, and there’s less chance you’ll be disturbed. Choose a quiet place. Quiet, peaceful surroundings can make meditation more enjoyable and relaxing. But the good news is that as you progress, you’ll learn to ignore any interruptions that arise – sirens, phones and the hustle and bustle of the world around you. Meditate with purpose. If you’re a beginner, keep in mind that meditation is an active process. The art of focusing your attention on a single point is hard work, and you have to be purposefully engaged! Establish a regular practice. The idea “practice makes perfect” definitely applies to meditation and as per the point above, if you‘re going to get positive benefits, you need to stay committed. Sit comfortably. Make sure you’re relaxed and comfortable. Sit up straight, keep your shoulders and neck relaxed, and eyes closed. Luckily, there’s no need to sit in the lotus position! Don’t meditate on a full stomach. It’s best to meditate before a meal so you don’t feel too full or doze off while meditating. However, don’t meditate when you’re hungry. You‘ll find it tricky if you keep thinking about food the whole time! Choose a meditation practice. There are a range of different meditation techniques to explore. The most popular include: 1. Observing your breathing – without altering the rhythm of your breathing, simply notice every inhalation and exhalation. If your mind wanders, gently bring it back to the breath. 2. Repeating a mantra – saying a sound, word or phrase in your mind over and over can lead you into a state of deep relaxation. You can learn transcendental meditation from a trained teacher who will give you a mantra, or you can try the word “om” or other words like “peace”. 3. Practicing visualisation – taking your mind to a safe, calm place can be a pleasant way to meditate. Imagine you are on a beach or in a garden and picture every detail of your surroundings. 4. Progressively relaxing the body – while sitting or lying down, try moving your awareness slowly through your body from your head to your toes. Relaxing each part of your body is an effective way to achieve a wonderful state of calm. Image credits: Getty Images

Mind

6 tips to keep the peace on holidays with a friend

Even the best of friends can come to blow when they’re on the road. Avoid conflict with your travel buddy by following these tips. 1. Plan ahead Before you set foot on that plane, you need to make absolutely sure that you are both having the holiday you want. If one person loves to spend their days hiking through the forest, they won’t appreciate being made to lie on the beach all day. Or vice versa. There’s always going to be an element of compromise, so plan a trip that appeals to both of you. Otherwise you’ll spend the whole time at loggerheads. 2. Agree on a budget Money always causes trouble and that can be amplified when you’re on the road. Even if you are keeping your finances separate while travelling, it’s important to agree on a general budget. One person might be happy to splash out on fancy restaurants every night while the other prefers to fill up on budget street food. You’ll need to find a happy medium that suits both of your wallets and it’s easier to do it before you depart, rather than starting a fight when you’re both hungry. 3. Pack separate bags You’ll thank us in the end. It might sound like a great idea to minimise the load and just take one bag, but everyone needs a bit of their own space. Having your own bag means there’s no conflict over who has packed too much or who is a messy folder, plus you both get lots of space for souvenirs. It also prevents one person from getting stuck carrying the load every time. 4. Be flexible It’s always handy to have a schedule, but you don’t have to stick to it like you’re on a military expedition. Choices will have to made at numerous points in your trip, so discuss them with your buddy and be prepared to be flexible. You can’t both have things exactly your own way the whole time, so it’s easier to be open to alternative options rather than digging in. 5. Spend some time apart Travelling together doesn’t mean you have to spend every waking minute together. Time apart is healthy and gives each person the chance to do things they want to do. One of you can go to the museums, the other can hit the shops, and you can swap stories over dinner. 6. Let it go It’s a holiday, so have some fun. Try not to pick silly fights and, if you do end up in one, don’t hang on to it. If things go wrong it’s easier in the long run to laugh about it than apportion blame. No one’s here to keep score. And if you feel things getting a little tense, talk about it before it goes too far. Image credit: Shutterstock

Travel Tips

Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030s, say scientists – this would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a> The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8">Nature Communications</a>. Predictions of an ice-free Arctic Ocean have a long and complicated history, and the 2030s is sooner than most scientists had thought possible (though it is later than some had wrongly forecast). What we know for sure is the disappearance of sea ice at the top of the world would not only be an emblematic sign of climate breakdown, but it would have global, damaging and dangerous consequences. The Arctic has been experiencing climate heating <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-is-warming-nearly-four-times-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-new-research-188474">faster than any other part of the planet</a>. As it is at the frontline of climate change, the eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=184&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530136/original/file-20230605-19-mdh85y.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=232&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animation of Arctic sea ice from space" /></a><figcaption>Arctic sea ice grows until March and then shrinks until September. <a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/esnt/2022/nasa-finds-2022-arctic-winter-sea-ice-10th-lowest-on-record">NASA</a></figcaption></figure> The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around <a href="http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-extent0/">7 million sq km to 4 million</a>. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world. As a consequence, there has been considerable effort invested in determining when the Arctic Ocean might first become ice-free in summer, sometimes called a “blue ocean event” and defined as when the sea ice area drops below 1 million sq kms. This threshold is used mainly because older, thicker ice along parts of Canada and northern Greenland is expected to remain long after the rest of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free. We can’t put an exact date on the last blue ocean event, but one in the near future would likely mean open water at the North Pole for the first time in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature10581">thousands of years</a>. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=712&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530138/original/file-20230605-29-9uuhxu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=895&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Annotated map of Arctic" /></a><figcaption>The thickest ice (highlighted in pink) is likely to remain even if the North Pole is ice-free. <a class="source" href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2015/05/new-tools-for-sea-ice-thickness/">NERC Center for Polar Observation and Modelling</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></figcaption></figure> One problem with predicting when this might occur is that sea ice is notoriously difficult to model because it is influenced by both atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the flow of heat between these two parts of the climate system. That means that the climate models – powerful computer programs used to simulate the environment – need to get all of these components right to be able to accurately predict changes in sea ice extent. <h2>Melting faster than models predicted</h2> Back in the 2000s, an assessment of early generations of climate models found they generally <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029703">underpredicted the loss of sea ice</a> when compared to satellite data showing what actually happened. The models predicted a loss of about 2.5% per decade, while the observations were closer to 8%. The next generation of models did better but were <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052676">still not matching observations</a> which, at that time were suggesting a blue ocean event would happen by mid-century. Indeed, the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">IPCC climate science report</a>, published in 2021, reaches a similar conclusion about the timing of an ice-free Arctic Ocean. As a consequence of the problems with the climate models, some scientists have attempted to extrapolate the observational record resulting in the controversial and, ultimately, incorrect assertion that this would happen <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/21/arctic-will-be-ice-free-in-summer-next-year">during the mid 2010s</a>. This did not help the credibility of the scientific community and its ability to make reliable projections. <h2>Ice-free by 2030?</h2> The scientists behind the latest study have taken a different approach by, in effect, calibrating the models with the observations and then using this calibrated solution to project sea ice decline. This makes a lot of sense, because it reduces the effect of small biases in the climate models that can in turn bias the sea ice projections. They call these “observationally constrained” projections and find that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer as early as 2030, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530365/original/file-20230606-21-usmovg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Walruses on ice floe" /></a><figcaption>Walruses depend on sea ice. As it melts, they’re being forced onto land. outdoorsman / shutterstock</figcaption></figure> There is still plenty of uncertainty around the exact date – about <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070067">20 years or so</a> – because of natural chaotic fluctuations in the climate system. But compared to previous research, the new study still brings forward the most likely timing of a blue ocean event by about a decade. <h2>Why this matters</h2> You might be asking the question: so what? Other than some polar bears not being able to hunt in the same way, why does it matter? Perhaps there are even benefits as the previous US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/06/politics/pompeo-sea-ice-arctic-council/index.html">once declared</a> – it means ships from Asia can potentially save around 3,000 miles of journey to European ports in summer at least. But Arctic sea ice is an important component of the climate system. As it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean, removing this ice is predicted to further accelerate warming, through a process known as a positive feedback. This, in turn, will make the Greenland ice sheet <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL059770">melt faster</a>, which is already a major contributor to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021RG000757">sea level rise</a>. The loss of sea ice in summer would also mean changes in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/ccp6/">atmospheric circulation and storm tracks</a>, and fundamental shifts in ocean biological activity. These are just some of the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021RG000757">highly undesirable consequences</a> and it is fair to say that the disadvantages will far outweigh the slender benefits. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jonathan-bamber-102567">Jonathan Bamber</a>, Professor of Physical Geography, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-bristol-1211">University of Bristol</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-ocean-could-be-ice-free-in-summer-by-2030s-say-scientists-this-would-have-global-damaging-and-dangerous-consequences-206974">original article</a>. Images: Getty

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