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Why hurricanes like Milton in the US and cyclones in Australia are becoming more intense and harder to predict

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a> Tropical cyclones, known as hurricanes and typhoons in other parts of the world, have caused huge damage in many places recently. The United States has just been hit by <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start">Hurricane Milton</a>, within two weeks of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hurricane-helene-became-a-deadly-disaster-across-six-states-240522">Hurricane Helene</a>. Climate change <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-key-driver-of-catastrophic-impacts-of-hurricane-helene-that-devastated-both-coastal-and-inland-communities/">likely made their impacts worse</a>. In Australia, the tropical cyclone season (November to April) is approaching. The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/">long-range forecast</a> for this season. It predicts an average number of tropical cyclones, 11, are likely to form in the region. Four are expected to cross the Australian coast. However, the risk of severe cyclones is higher than average. So what does an average number actually mean in our rapidly changing climate? And why is there a higher risk of intense cyclones? The bureau’s forecast is consistent with scientific evidence suggesting climate change is likely to result in fewer but more severe tropical cyclones. They are now more likely to bring stronger winds and <a href="https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1251/2024/hess-28-1251-2024.pdf">more intense rain and flooding</a>. <h2>Climate change is making prediction harder</h2> Our knowledge of tropical cyclones and climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1">globally</a> and for the Australian region. This work includes our studies based on <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4">observations</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4497-4">modelling</a>. The bureau’s seasonal outlook in recent years has assumed an average of 11 tropical cyclones occurring in our region (covering an area of the southern tropics between longitudes 90°E and 160°E). It’s based on the average value for all years back to 1969. However, for the past couple of decades the annual average is below nine tropical cyclones. In earlier decades, it was over 12. This long-term downward trend adds to the challenge of seasonal predictions. The most recent above-average season (assuming an average of 11) was almost 20 years ago, in the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/">2005–06 summer with 12 tropical cyclones</a>. Since then, any prediction of above-average tropical cyclone seasons has not eventuated. <h2>El Niño and La Niña influences may be changing too</h2> Historical observations suggest more tropical cyclones tend to occur near Australia during La Niña events. This is a result of warm, moist water and air near Australia, compared with El Niño events. The shifting between El Niño and La Niña states in the Pacific region is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such events can be predicted with a useful degree of accuracy several months ahead in some cases. For example, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf">forecast</a>: <blockquote> La Niña is favored to emerge in September–November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January–March 2025. </blockquote> Based on that, one might expect a higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones for the Australian region. However, the <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asl2.502">ENSO influence on tropical cyclones has weakened</a> in our region. It’s another factor that’s making long-range predictions harder. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/">bureau’s ENSO outlook</a> is somewhat closer to neutral ENSO conditions, based on its modelling, compared to NOAA’s leaning more toward La Niña. The bureau says: <blockquote> Should La Niña form in the coming months, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived. </blockquote> The bureau’s prediction of an average number of tropical cyclones this season is broadly consistent with its prediction of close-to-average ENSO conditions. <h2>So what does this all mean for this cyclone season?</h2> If we end up getting an average Australian season for the current climate, this might actually mean fewer tropical cyclones than the historical average. The number might be closer to eight or nine rather than 11 or 12. (Higher or lower values than this range are still possible.) However, those that do occur could have an increased chance of being <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/understanding/categories/">category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones</a>. These have stronger winds, with gusts typically exceeding 225km per hour, and are more likely to cause severe floods and coastal damage. If we end up getting more than the recent average of eight to nine tropical cyclones, which could happen if NOAA predictions of La Niña conditions eventuate, that increases the risk of impacts. However, there is one partially good news story from climate change relating to this, if the influence of La Niña is less than it used to be on increasing tropical cyclone activity. Another factor is that the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/sst/#/anom/global/weekly/20241006">world’s oceans are much warmer than usual</a>. Warm ocean water is one of several factors that provide the energy needed for a tropical cyclone to form. Many ocean heat <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2">records have been set</a> recently. This means we have been in “uncharted waters” from a temperature perspective. It adds further uncertainty if relying on what occurred in the past when making predictions for the current climate. <h2>Up-to-date evidence is vital as climate changes</h2> The science makes it clear we need to plan for tropical cyclone impacts in a different way from what might have worked in the past. This includes being prepared for potentially fewer tropical cyclones overall, but with those that do occur being more likely to cause more damage. This means there are higher risks of damaging winds, flooding and coastal erosion. Seasonal prediction guidance can be part of improved planning. There’s also a need for enhanced design standards and other climate change adaptation activities. All can be updated regularly to stay consistent with the best available scientific knowledge. Increased preparedness is more important than ever to help reduce the potential for disasters caused by tropical cyclones in the current and future climate. <hr /> The authors acknowledge the contribution of CSIRO researcher <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/hamish-ramsay-19549">Hamish Ramsay</a> during the writing of this article.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/241000/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-dowdy-119002">Andrew Dowdy</a>, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-ritchie-tyo-1509061">Liz Ritchie-Tyo</a>, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/savin-chand-1351050">Savin Chand</a>, Associate Professor, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/federation-university-australia-780">Federation University Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hurricanes-like-milton-in-the-us-and-cyclones-in-australia-are-becoming-more-intense-and-harder-to-predict-241000">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

Nat Barr slammed for “out of touch” comments about the housing crisis

Nat Barr has been widely slammed online for her comments on the housing crisis, with many claiming she is “stirring the pot”. On Wednesday’s Sunrise show, Barr was just joined by two experts to discuss Labor’s Help To Buy Bill, which would allow Australians earning under $90,000 to buy a home with just a 2 per cent deposit. While discussing the legislation, Barr said she’s worried her two sons — aged 19 and 22 — won’t be able to purchase a home after finance spokesperson Jane Hume claimed “Australians have already rejected this policy right around the country”. “I’m in the lucky position that I got to buy mine when they were cheaper years ago but I don’t know how my kids are going to buy one,” Barr said. Barr, who has hosted Sunrise since 2020, has never spoken publicly about her salary, but it has long been speculated that she earns more than $1 million per year. Viewers were quick to slam her comments on Facebook, claiming Barr will “set her kids up”. “She is the last person who should speak. she’s wealthy and will set her kids up,” one person commented, while another added, “So many young people are buying houses every day without the help of mum and dad. Nat’s just stirring the pot.” Another commenter added, “She makes enough money to buy a house for each of her sons. They’ll be just fine. Check your privilege, Nat.” Image credits: Instagram / Sunrise

New calls for Boomers to end housing crisis

New research has called for Boomers to rent out their spare bedrooms in a bid to address the country's housing crisis. According to research from the Queensland University of Technology, there are more than 13 million spare bedrooms across the country, meaning 76 per cent of Aussie households have spare rooms. The report has called for older Australians to rent out their spare rooms to provide “short-term relief to both the rental and the cost of living crisis”. “If new housing stock is years away, then shifting the focus to existing housing may provide some short-term solutions,” the report states. The report also found that more than six million homes have one or two spare bedrooms, while one million homes have three or more spare bedrooms. They also encouraged the government to incentivise older Australians to open up their spare rooms to renters, to provide them some financial relief during the cost of living crisis. Currently, the Government hopes to build 1.2 million homes, but have welcomed further ideas to help relieve the cost of living crisis. “Meeting this ambitious target will certainly be a challenge and it won’t happen overnight, but it’s a challenge we have to meet in order to make housing more affordable," a government spokesman said. However, the Queensland University of Technology noted that the demand for housing is set to outstrip supply in Australia until at least 2029, based on the government's State of the Housing System report. “The housing crisis is a complex matter and new housing supply is years away, despite billions of dollars of government commitments,” the report states. “Millions of empty bedrooms exist and yet many older homeowners live in poverty rather than risk losing their pension or paying taxes by renting out a spare bedroom.” The report acknowledged that there may be barriers like concerns for elder abuse that may deter people from renting out their homes, "however, under the right circumstances, with appropriate support and education, such ‘house sharing’ arrangements could alleviate some of the current housing and cost of living issues." “There is an urgent need for further research to be undertaken to explore opportunities to incentivise, educate, support, and protect older Australians to open their homes and unlock existing housing stock for immediate use by those in need.” These findings follow PropTrack’s latest Housing Affordability Report that stated housing affordability in Australia has deteriorated to its “worst level on record” amid high mortgage rates and increasing home prices. Image: Shutterstock

Travel Trouble

Climate change threatens Australian tourism more than is widely believed. Here’s why

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Right now, Australia is one of the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/publications/travel-tourism-development-index-2024/">top five</a> tourist destinations in the world, a distinction the World Economic Forum says it shares with only the United States, France, Spain and Japan. So important is tourism to Australia’s economy that the best estimates are it employs <a href="https://www.tra.gov.au/en/economic-analysis/state-of-the-industry">655,000</a> people, 12 times as many as <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/employment-and-unemployment/labour-force-australia-detailed/jul-2024">Australia’s coal industry</a>. And most of them are employed in <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">regional locations</a>, where jobs are scarce. This month a report by the Zurich insurance group and the economic consultancy Mandala found <a href="https://www.zurich.com.au/content/dam/au-documents/files/zurich-mandala-climate-risk-index-the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-australian-tourism-industry.pdf">half</a> of Australia’s top 178 tourism assets were at risk from foreseeable climate change. There are reasons to believe its findings underplay what we are facing. <h2>All major airports, all national parks at risk</h2> The Zurich-Mandala report examines the impact of a 2⁰C increase in global temperatures on only eight so-called “climate perils”: wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain. It found that more than half of Australia’s top tourism assets faced a “significant risk from multiple perils” over the next 25 years, including all of Australia’s major airports. Scheduling disruptions and the closure of airports in extreme weather conditions were set to have major impacts on the transport of goods, the transport of tourists and accessibility for emergency services. All of Australia’s vineyards, national parks, scenic roads and railways were at risk. Queensland had the highest number of sites facing significant risk (79%) followed by Western Australia (69%) and the Northern Territory (63%). The report uses the impact of the 2019-20 <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/Quick_Guides/AustralianBushfires">black summer bushfires</a> to estimate that 176,000 jobs might be at risk nationwide from predictable climate change, most of them outside of Australia’s capital cities. <h2>Multiple and interacting threats</h2> Here is why I am fearful that the report underplays the threat Australia’s tourism industry is facing. There are many more threats to tourism from climate change than wind, flood, heat, storm, drought, bushfire, hail and rain. One is the threat to biodiversity. Iconic animals and habitats are an important part of Australia’s brand. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-28/3-billion-animals-killed-displaced-in-fires-wwf-study/12497976">Three billion</a> animals were killed or displaced in the black summer bushfires. The deaths caused <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/01/alexis-wright-black-summer-bushfires-vigil-sydney-speech-3-billion-animals-killed-are-our-relatives-they-deserve-to-be-mourned">loss and grief</a> that risk indexes are incapable of capturing, but that nonetheless might make tourism less attractive. And biodiversity helps in another way by <a href="https://www.australianwildlife.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Hayward-Et-Al.-2016-Could-biodiversity-loss-have-increased-Australias-bushfire-threat.pdf">protecting against bushfires</a>, meaning that as species vanish, other risks to tourism climb in ways that aren’t captured in the assumptions used to evaluate risk. <h2>Threats unexamined</h2> What makes holiday locations unattractive is hard to measure, but is fed by extreme weather events. Although temporary, the smoke and heat from the 2019-20 bushfires made parts of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra almost unlivable for a while, damaging the reputations of Australian capital cities in a way that is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/not-a-good-look-bushfire-smoke-threatens-to-pollute-sydney-s-tourist-image-20191206-p53hpl.html">probably ongoing</a>. Another curious omission, especially curious given that the report was prepared by an insurance company, is the damage extreme weather events do to the insurability of tourism assets. The report is also silent on the effort to reduce carbon emissions on Australia’s desirability as an international destination. For many tourists, air travel is the only way to get to Australia and it is likely to become more expensive and also less attractive as tourists try to reduce their <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652614011810">carbon footprints</a>. Australia might increasingly become an Australian rather than an international destination. Our biggest upcoming international promotion, the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games, might lose a good deal of its shine, with Queensland tourism assets at the greatest risk from climate change, and those risks set to climb over time. <h2>The higher the temperature the bigger the threats</h2> Zurich and the Mandala consultancy are to be commended for identifying 178 top tourism assets and examining eight types of risk they face. Their finding that just over half of them face serious threats from those risks is likely to be an underestimate because it excludes other risks and fails to examine the way in which some risks can intensify others. And they will be an underestimate if global temperatures climb by more than 2⁰C. The report says if global temperatures climb to 3⁰C above pre-industrial levels, 80% of the Australian sites it examined will face serious threats. Australia could attempt to limit the increase in global temperatures by taking up the opportunity to co-host the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-a-big-deal-if-australia-and-the-pacific-are-chosen-to-host-un-climate-talks-heres-why-238320">2026 UN climate talks</a> with Pacific nations. It would give us a shot at making a difference and drawing attention to our present status as one of the world’s top tourism destinations.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/238768/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/freya-higgins-desbiolles-181651">Freya Higgins-Desbiolles</a>, Adjunct professor and adjunct senior lecturer in tourism management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-south-australia-1180">University of South Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-threatens-australian-tourism-more-than-is-widely-believed-heres-why-238768">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

‘It’s time to give up on normal’: what winter’s weird weather means for the warm months ahead

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Heavy winds struck south-east Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. It followed a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/australia-weather-update-nsw-and-victoria-damaging-winds-high-fire-danger-warnings/0f9b19d8-dc81-44c9-8df4-679cbb67c055">high fire danger</a> in Sydney and other parts of New South Wales last week, and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/fire-grass-emergency-warning-firefighter-horningsea-park/104281180">a fire in south-west Sydney</a> that threatened homes. The severe weather rounds out a weird winter across Australia. The nation’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/winter-heat-records-broken-as-australia-set-for-more-temperatures-over-10c-above-average">hottest ever winter temperature was recorded</a> when Yampi Sound in Western Australia reached 41.6C on Tuesday. Elsewhere across Australia, winter temperatures have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/28/nsw-weather-forecast-fire-danger-warnings-sydney-bom">way above average</a>. We can look to the positives: spring <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/aug/26/australias-early-spring-brings-budding-flowers-chirping-birds-and-climate-alarm">flowers are blooming early</a>, and people have donned t-shirts and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/spring-comes-early-after-warm-winter-with-more-heat-on-the-way-20240828-p5k63i.html">hit the beach</a>. But there’s a frightening undercurrent to this weather. Earth’s climate has become dangerously <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/extreme-weather/">unstable</a>, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the bad combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should come as a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting Australia’s weather to be “normal”, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/003XSg5AZBk?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></figure> <h2>The green is deceiving</h2> The landscape around Sydney – and in fact, across much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. That’s because we’ve had a couple of years of good rains which triggered an explosion of vegetation growth. The below NASA satellite image reveals the picture in stark detail. It’s certainly lush out there at the moment. But the problem with climate change is that weather conditions can turn on a dime. This August was a case in point. At month’s end, much of Australia was hit by a record-breaking heatwave and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">damaging winds</a> – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for a bushfire. The dangerous fire weather that struck Sydney this week came as a surprise to many. But in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal. We must open our minds to this, if we want to be prepared. <h2>A climate off the rails</h2> The year 2023 was Earth’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/2023-was-warmest-year-modern-temperature-record#:%7E:text=The%20year%202023%20was%20the,decade%20(2014%E2%80%932023).">hottest on record</a>. And <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">2024 looks likely</a> to be hotter still. In Australia, the last 12 months have provided all the evidence we need that our climate is wobbling on its rails. In October 2023, Victoria’s Gippsland region suffered unseasonably early bushfires, then soon after battled <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-05/gippsland-fires-and-multiple-floods-breeding-resilience/103179368">heavy rain and flooding</a>. And Tasmania, where I live, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/tas-drought-conditions-as-dry-tasmania-looking-very-brown/103546058">has been gripped by drought</a>. This February was Hobart’s third driest in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hammered by a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-01/tas-flood-warnings-severe-weather-sunday/104296092">deluge of rain and wind</a>. This climate instability is setting up bad fire conditions. Not everywhere in south-east Australia will be hit by fire, but it will happen somewhere. It could be the hinterlands or the coast. It will depend on how our erratic climate behaves in the coming months. Let’s stick with the Tasmania example. Sure, the surface soils are now nicely saturated. But that will lead to a burst of grass and other vegetation in spring. If the dry weather returns and the temperatures heat up in summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible. All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and a nightmare fire will soon be racing across the landscape. <h2>Canada on fire</h2> Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climate instability and a worsening fire risk. Canada suffered a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the most severe on record. It burnt almost 15 million hectares and forced the evacuation of 232,000 people. Smoke produced by the fires affected communities up to 1,000 km away, such as in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02653-6">recent paper</a> in the journal Nature Communications outlined why. It pinpointed early snowmelt, early-season drought conditions and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2°C higher than the 30-year average. The researchers said human-caused climate change exacerbated the fire’s effects. It went on: <blockquote> The disproportionate effect a few days of extreme weather can have on the total area burned is also evident in this fire season, leading to worrisome prospects given projected future conditions. </blockquote> <h2>Normal no longer exists</h2> It’s always been difficult to forecast fire seasons in Australia, due to our natural climate variability. But now we are seeing climate instability <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/previous/state-of-the-climate-2018/australias-changing-climate">layering over itself</a>: background dryness, wet seasons bringing a proliferation of fuels, and above-average temperatures. Eventually we’ll get unlucky and experience extremely strong winds thrown into the mix. That’s when catastrophic fires are most likely to occur. As we saw in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-black-summer-of-fire-was-not-normal-and-we-can-prove-it-172506">Black Summer of 2019–20</a>, and again in Canada last year, some fires are so intense they completely overwhelm fire suppression strategies. Under climate change, the likelihood of getting a bad combination of weather conditions is increasing. So what’s the remedy? Australia really must start making our communities more resilient. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.adi8066">research has outlined</a>, this requires the careful integration of: <ul> <li>community education programs</li> <li>research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland</li> <li>incentives and penalties to ensure adaptation measures are implemented.</li> </ul> As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to give up on “normal” weather. The game is changing and we have to adapt.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237857/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-bowman-4397">David Bowman</a>, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-tasmania-888">University of Tasmania</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-give-up-on-normal-what-winters-weird-weather-means-for-the-warm-months-ahead-237857">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

40°C in August? A climate expert explains why Australia is ridiculously hot right now

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> It’s winter in Australia, but as you’ve probably noticed, the weather is unusually warm. The top temperatures over large parts of the country this weekend were well above average for this time of year. The outback town of Oodnadatta in South Australia recorded 38.5°C on Friday and 39.4°C on Saturday – about 16°C above average. Both days were well above the state’s previous winter temperature record. In large parts of Australia, the heat is expected to persist into the coming week. A high pressure system is bringing this unusual heat – and it’s hanging around. So temperature records have already fallen and may continue to be broken for some towns in the next few days. It’s no secret the world is warming. In fact, 2024 is shaping up to be <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-now-very-likely-to-be-warmest-year-on-record/">the hottest year on record</a>. Climate change is upon us. Historical averages are becoming just that: a thing of the past. That’s why this winter heat is concerning. The warming trend will continue for at least as long as we keep burning fossil fuels and polluting the atmosphere. Remember, this is only August. The heatwaves of spring and summer are only going to be hotter. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GmhMKjxEGQo?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Widespread heat forecast for Australia in August, 2024 (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>Records broken across Australia</h2> The Bureau of Meteorology was expecting many records to be broken over the weekend across several states. On Thursday, bureau meteorologist Angus Hines described: <blockquote> A scorching end to winter, with widespread heat around the country in coming days, including the chance of winter records across multiple states for maximum temperature. </blockquote> The amount of heat plunging into central Australia was particularly unusual, Hines said. On Friday, temperatures across northern South Australia and southern parts of the Northern Territory were as much as 15°C above average. Temperatures continued to soar across northern parts of Western Australia over the weekend, with over 40°C recorded at Fitzroy Crossing on Sunday. It has been 2–12°C above average from Townsville all the way down to Melbourne for several days in a row. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615457/original/file-20240825-18-d8f6ho.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Animated maximum temperature anomaly map showing heat building across central Australia" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperature anomalies from August 19-24, showing heat building across Australia. Bureau of Meteorology, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> Bear in mind, it’s only August. As Hines said, the fire weather season hasn’t yet hit most of Australia – but the current conditions – hot, dry and sometimes windy – are bringing moderate to high fire danger across Australia. It may also bring dusty conditions to central Australia. And for latitudes north of Sydney and Perth, most of the coming week will be warm. <h2>What’s causing the winter warmth?</h2> <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">In recent days</a> a stubborn high pressure system has sat over eastern Australia and the Tasman Sea. It has kept skies clear over much of the continent and brought northerly winds over many areas, transporting warm air to the south. High pressure promotes warm weather – both through clearer skies that bring more sunshine, and by promoting the descent of air which <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/2544/explainer-what-influences-air-temperature/">causes heating</a>. By late August, both the intensity of the sun and the length of the day has increased. So the centre of Australia can really warm up when under the right conditions. High pressure in June can be associated with cooler conditions, because more heat is lost from the surface during those long winter nights. But that’s already less of an issue by late August. This kind of weather setup has occurred in the past. Late-winter or early-spring heat does sometimes occur in Australia. However, this warm spell is exceptional, as highlighted by the broken temperature records across the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/615284/original/file-20240823-20-1mu7h0.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Graph of August Australian-average temperatures increasing since 1910" /></a><figcaption>August temperatures have been rising over the past century. Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> <h2>Feeling the heat</h2> The consequences of humanity’s continued greenhouse gas emissions are clear. Australia’s winters are getting warmer overall. And winter “heatwaves” are becoming warmer. Australia’s three warmest Augusts on record have all occurred since 2000 – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-australia-having-such-a-warm-winter-a-climate-expert-explains-210693">last August was the second-warmest since 1910</a>. When the right weather conditions occur for winter warmth across Australia, the temperatures are higher than a century ago. The warmth we are experiencing now comes off the back of <a href="https://theconversation.com/earth-has-just-ended-a-13-month-streak-of-record-heat-heres-what-to-expect-next-236655">a recent run of global temperature records</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-heat-is-breaking-global-records-why-this-isnt-just-summer-and-what-climate-change-has-to-do-with-it-234249">extreme heat events across the Northern Hemisphere</a>. This warm spell is set to continue, with temperatures above 30°C forecast from Wednesday through to Sunday in Brisbane. The outlook for spring points to continued <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0">above-normal temperatures</a> across the continent, but as always we will likely see both warm and cold spells at times. Such winter warmth is exceptional and already breaking records. Climate change is already increasing the frequency and intensity of this kind of winter heat – and future warm spells will be hotter still, if humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions continue.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/237398/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/40-c-in-august-a-climate-expert-explains-why-australia-is-ridiculously-hot-right-now-237398">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

"Stop the blame game": Kochie slams young Aussie homebuyers

David Koch has called on young Aussies to stop blaming baby boomers for their financial woes in his latest newsletter for finance website Compare The Market. The former Sunrise host and current economic director for the finance company said that young Aussies need to “stop the blame game” in regards to the housing crisis, arguing that baby boomers should be called the "scapegoats" instead. He explained that young homebuyers believe that his generation has “put them on the chopping block” despite the “Bank of Mum and Dad” sitting sixth largest home lenders. “Not enough houses? Boomers are hoarding them. Not enough home units? Boomers throw down cash before first-time buyers can say boo!” he wrote. He said that while he understood that young Aussies are struggling to buy a home, as the median price of one in Australia is currently 14 times the average annual income, in 1990 it was five times the average annual income. “When we bought our homes, prices were more accessible, and while interest rates were sky-high, our wages were aligned with housing costs.” “Housing markets have inflated, wages have stagnated, and opportunities for younger generations are considerably diminished.” He added that government policy is largely to blame for the dire housing situation, and that the rise in property costs was not because they wanted to hang younger Aussies out to dry, but because the economy favoured real estate as a safe, long-term investment. “Governments have simply not planned for either the generational housing change or the big increase in migration to ensure enough properties have been built to meet demand,” he wrote. He then referenced the State of the Housing System report which found that Australia will fall 40,000 units short of its 2029 new home construction target of 1.2m million. Kochie defended the boomers, saying that not many of them could be considered as the "wealthy, elite stereotype we often see in the news”, as many of them had to work hard to become a homeowner. “It's essential to recognise this diversity and avoid vilifying the entire generation,” he wrote. Kochie called on young Australians to "stop the blame game" and instead of "pointing fingers" they should focus on “how we can work together” to make housing affordable again. “A bit of compassion and creative thinking could go a long way. Otherwise, the scapegoats and sacrificial lambs of the world will continue their bleating,” he wrote. Images: Realestate.com.au

Money & Banking

Yomojo savings: A lifeline in the cost-of-living crisis

In the wake of Telstra announcing yet another increase in mobile rates, Yomojo stands out with its much more affordable options – and, having never raised their prices for existing customers, that makes them an excellent choice for anyone looking for a quality mobile service without the hefty price tag. So if you’re looking for a mobile phone plan that grows with your family and offers fantastic savings, <a href="https://yomojo.com.au/family/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yomojo’s Family Bundles</a> offer the perfect solution. With these bundles, the more lines you add, the more you save! For example, adding two lines saves you 5%, while adding six lines saves you an impressive 15%. These discounted multi-line plans help reduce monthly expenses, ensuring that everyone in the family, including seniors, can stay connected without breaking the bank. By choosing Yomojo, families can manage their mobile costs more effectively, making a significant difference in their financial well-being during these challenging times. Yomojo also understands that every family is unique. That’s why they offer a range of Unlimited Plans that can be mixed and matched to suit each member’s needs and your budget. Whether you need 8GB or 100GB of data, Yomojo has you covered with plans starting as low as $19.90. Managing your family’s mobile services has never been easier. Yomojo provides a simple, secure, and easy-to-manage family dashboard where you can oversee all plan details through a single interface. Plus, with no lock-in contracts, you can freely customise your plans every month to adapt to your changing needs. Yomojo also offers proactive plan management to help you avoid bill shock, convenient plan renewals every 30 days, and easy top-ups to boost your mobile credit or data allocation as needed. Their exceptional customer service and reliable coverage make Yomojo a top choice for families across Australia. You can also “spread the love” for further savings with Yomojo’s simple and rewarding <a href="https://yomojo.com.au/mgm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Referral Program</a>. Simply invite friends and family to join Yomojo, and both of you will receive a $20 credit when they activate their new SIM card. This is a win-win situation where you can refer as many people as you like, and watch your credits roll in! It’s a fantastic way to share Yomojo’s great service while enjoying additional savings on your own plan. But don’t just take our word for it – Yomojo customers have been raving about the great value, flexible plans and outstanding customer service. “By far the best value mobile plans out there,” wrote Stevo on ProductReview.com.au. “My wife and I both have accounts with them. Spoke to customer service and had my query dealt with quickly and effectively. Would recommend this company.” “I am a long-term Telstra customer who has never changed networks until now,” wrote Kerryn on Facebook Reviews. “The ever-rising charges I was receiving from Telstra promoted my change. My changeover experience has been very smooth. There was a lot of communication from Yomojo, both via sms and email, updating me with the progress of my sim card, activation and porting from Telstra.” “Definitely best value for money plan out there,” wrote Cam on Google Reviews. “Optus coverage has been very reliable as well. Excellent customer service and fast number porting.” So why not join the Yomojo family today and experience the freedom, flexibility and savings that come with their Family Bundles! For more information, visit <a href="https://yomojo.com.au/family/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yomojo Family Bundles</a>. Image: Shutterstock This is a sponsored article produced in partnership with Yomojo.

Money & Banking

Is Australia’s climate confusing you? Here’s why rainfall and temperatures don’t always behave as expected

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> In the past few years in Australia, seasonal rainfall and temperatures have left a lot of people confused. Sometimes, the hot, dry conditions usually associated with an El Niño have not eventuated. Similarly, there have been years where a La Niña did not lead to the cool, wet conditions expected. It’s important for scientists to better understand all weather processes at play, so we can manage expectations around what Australia might experience when climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are forecast in future. That’s where our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/aop/MWR-D-23-0112.1/MWR-D-23-0112.1.xml">new research</a> comes in. We examined the state of play in November 2020 and November 2021. La Niña conditions occurred in both years. November 2021 followed the La Niña script and was wet and cool, but November 2020 departed from expectations and was dry and warm. We set out to determine why. We found the differences could be explained by fluctuations in the path of storms over the Australian continent. These fluctuations can be hard to predict well in advance, which makes it difficult to say for certain how a particular La Niña or El Niño event will affect Australia. <h2>A tale of two Novembers</h2> For large parts of Australia, the presence of a La Niña or El Niño <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-an-el-nino-the-answer-might-surprise-you-198510">shifts the odds</a> of experiencing wet or dry conditions. Our analysis of Novembers 2020 and 2021 shows how actual outcomes can differ from, or align with, expectations. The first step in our analysis was to examine <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">other climate drivers</a>, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode. We wanted to know if these drivers were in the same phase – negative, neutral or positive – during those two Novembers a year apart. So what did we find? In addition to La Nina, both Novembers occurred during positive Southern Annular Mode phases and very weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases. These phases are typically associated with more rainfall in Australia. So this didn’t explain why November 2020 was hot and dry. Next, we looked to the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden Julian Oscillation</a>. When this driver is located in the Australian region, it has been linked to more rainfall in Australia. Although the oscillation was in different phases during November 2020 and 2021, we found in general, this driver does not strongly influence rainfall across all of Australia in November. It was time to look for answers elsewhere. <h2>Jet streams: a key piece in the puzzle</h2> Next, we examined weather systems – in other words, the movement of high and low pressure systems across the globe. These systems are partly controlled by jet streams, which are bands of wind in the upper atmosphere. The effect of jet streams on weather systems, including storms, means they influence rainfall in the regions they pass over. We found there was a strong jet stream over Australia in November 2021. This would have assisted the development of any rain-bearing low-pressure systems moving in from the west, allowing these systems to travel across the Australian continent. These systems brought rain and contributed to the very wet conditions. In November 2020, the jet stream was largely absent over Australia. Instead, it was pushed south of the continent, which means rainfall systems received little help and were also largely steered south. That contributed to the dry month. But why did the jet streams develop in the first place? They form in part due to temperature differences, and are found in the zones where the temperature contrast between warm and cool air is strongest. In November 2021, Australia experienced cooler temperatures over land, but above-average sea surface temperatures in the waters off northern Australia. This pattern set up the zone of strongest temperature contrasts over the continent, which led to a persistent jet stream there. In November 2020, Australia was relatively warm both over land and on the sea surface to the north. This meant that the strongest temperature contrasts (and the jet stream) now sat at the junction between the warm continent and cooler Southern Ocean. <h2>But wait, there’s more</h2> So why were temperatures over Australia so different? To help answer this question we shifted our analysis from the monthly timescale to the daily timescale. That’s because atmospheric features such as jet streams vary strongly from day to day. We found for about the first three weeks of November 2021, a large low-pressure system – also known as a trough – was sitting south of Australia. It pumped cold air onto the continent, cooling it down. This maximised the north-south temperature difference between the warm sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia and the cool of the continent. And as we know, this aided the development of the jet stream over Australia. In November 2020, the continent started off relatively warm. And for a large portion of the month, there was a large high-pressure system over Australia, pulling warmer air from the tropics over the continent. This system would have also promoted clear skies over Australia and enhanced heating coming from the sun, contributing to the warm Australian continent in November 2020. <h2>More puzzle pieces to fit</h2> November 2020’s hot, dry conditions were not the only time a climate driver has failed to bring the conditions some had anticipated. Just last year El Niño <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/03/experts-warned-el-nino-was-likely-to-bring-australia-a-hot-dry-summer-what-happened">did not deliver</a> expected dry conditions, leaving many people scratching their heads. Climate drivers play an important role in shaping rainfall. But they’re not the whole story. As our research shows, sometimes they are confounded by changes in weather patterns, which might mean that our expectations of a wet month or season don’t always play out. When it comes to Australia’s climate puzzle, these findings show there’s more to understand about the role of weather.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233345/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/carly-tozer-1404662">Carly Tozer</a>, Senior Research Scientist, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/james-risbey-2011">James Risbey</a>, Researcher, Oceans and Atmosphere, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/csiro-1035">CSIRO</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-australias-climate-confusing-you-heres-why-rainfall-and-temperatures-dont-always-behave-as-expected-233345">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Southern Australia is freezing. How can it be so cold in a warming climate?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> People living in southern Australia won’t have failed to notice how cold it is. Frosty nights and chilly days have been the weather for many of us since the start of July. As winter continues, we are left wondering how unusual the cold is and whether we can expect several more months of this. Warmer conditions are in the forecast but winter has a long way to go. Further cold snaps could occur. Cold conditions have been in place across southern Australia for the past few days. Temperatures have fallen below zero overnight in many places. It’s not just the nights that have been cold. Maximum temperatures have also been below or well below average across most of the country. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/604809/original/file-20240704-20-l50kpt.gif?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="" /></a><figcaption>Maximum temperatures have been below average across most of the continent since the last day of June. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>What’s causing the cold?</h2> A <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml">persistent and strong high-pressure system</a> has been hanging around over southeast Australia. The atmospheric pressure was so high it approached the Australian record of 1,044.3 hPa set on June 7 1967. An <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-04/australias-highest-air-pressure-recorded-weather/104055462">initial observation</a> of a new record has since been disregarded, but nonetheless this is an exceptional, near-record high-pressure pattern. This high-pressure system has kept the weather dry but clear nights have allowed strong cooling of the land surface. The long nights and short days of early July mean that temperatures struggle to rise during the day and can fall quickly in the evenings. In winter we expect cold weather across most of Australia and occasional cold snaps that bring widespread frosty and icy conditions. However, this current cold weather is pretty unusual and we are seeing some records fall. Notably, Tasmania has had its <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/tasmanias-2ndcoldest-night-on-record/1889603">lowest July temperature on record</a> and the second-lowest minimum temperature for any time of year with –13.5°C at Liawenee in central Tasmania early on Thursday morning. While Tasmania has produced the most remarkable records, the cold conditions have been unusual elsewhere too. Adelaide recorded its lowest temperature in 18 years on Wednesday morning. And many suburbs of Melbourne experienced a sub-zero night and consecutive nights of <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/frost-and-ice/frost">ground frost</a>. <h2>Winters are warming but cold spells still occur</h2> As the world is warming, it might seem surprising we can still break cold records. Indeed, across Australia <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/timeseries.cgi?graph=tmean&area=aus&season=0608&ave_yr=0&ave_period=6190">winters have been warming</a>. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=CN05&period=1950">frequency</a> and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/extremes/trendmaps.cgi?map=TNmn&period=1950">intensity</a> of very low temperatures have been decreasing over the past few decades. We also see many more hot records than cold records being set in Australia and around the globe. This is <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hot-weather-records-continue-to-tumble-worldwide-86158">due to human-caused climate change</a>. However, when we have the right weather conditions, cold records are still occasionally broken locally. As we continue to warm the planet, it’s getting harder for us to find cold records, particularly over larger regions or longer time periods. While we still see record cold temperatures at individual weather stations, we won’t see another cold record in the global average temperature and probably not even in the Australian average temperature. As this week shows, we still occasionally get daily cold records in the current climate. But it’s much harder to get record cold months, and record cold years at a given location are almost impossible. As we average weather conditions across locations or over time, the climate change signal becomes clearer over background weather variability. It makes new cold records much less likely to occur. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/605048/original/file-20240704-21-7ep1rt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A graphic showing the increase in annual average temperature for Australia from 1910 to 2023" /></a><figcaption>The climate change signal is becoming clearer as Australia’s annual average temperature continues to increase with each decade, widening the difference from the long-term mean. <a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/#tabs=Temperature">Bureau of Meteorology</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></figcaption></figure> <h2>How much longer will this cold snap last?</h2> Southern Australia is experiencing a cold snap at close to the coldest time of year. It’s not long after the winter solstice, when we experience the longest night of the year. We still have a few more cold days and nights ahead in parts of southeastern Australia. By early next week, the forecast suggests <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml">warmer conditions</a> will return as the high-pressure system moves east and winds turn northerly. The outlook for the rest of winter points firmly to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">above-average daytime and night-time temperatures</a>. This is partly because a historical average (1981–2018) is used and warming since then means above-average temperatures are going to happen most of the time. In any winter, Australia has cold outbreaks. So, even if the next few months are likely to be warmer than normal, we should expect a few cold days and nights at some point. Learning to live with the cold and improving the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/ng-interactive/2024/jul/03/why-so-many-australian-homes-are-either-too-hot-or-too-cold">quality of insulation in Australian homes</a> would help make our winter cold snaps seem a lot less harsh.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233977/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/andrew-king-103126">Andrew King</a>, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/southern-australia-is-freezing-how-can-it-be-so-cold-in-a-warming-climate-233977">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Is nuclear the answer to Australia’s climate crisis?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/reuben-finighan-157147">Reuben Finighan</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> In Australia’s race to net zero emissions, nuclear power has surged back into the news. Opposition leader Peter Dutton <a href="https://ipa.org.au/research/climate-change-and-energy/peter-dutton-address-to-ipa-members-sydney-7-july-2023">argues</a> nuclear is “the only feasible and proven technology” for cutting emissions. Energy Minister Chris Bowen insists Mr Dutton is promoting “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-18/energy-minister-says-nuclear-power-too-expensive/102868218">the most expensive form of energy</a>”. Is nuclear a pragmatic and wise choice blocked by ideologues? Or is Mr Bowen right that promoting nuclear power is about as sensible as <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/-unicorn-and-a-fantasy-energy-minister-slams-nuclear-energy/102866944">chasing “unicorns”</a>? For someone who has not kept up with developments in nuclear energy, its prospects may seem to hinge on safety. Yet by any hard-nosed accounting, the risks from modern nuclear plants are orders of magnitude lower than those of fossil fuels. Deep failures in design and operational incompetence caused the Chernobyl disaster. Nobody died at Three Mile Island or from Fukushima. Meanwhile, a Harvard-led study found <a href="https://seas.harvard.edu/news/2021/02/deaths-fossil-fuel-emissions-higher-previously-thought">more than one in six deaths globally</a> – around 9 million a year – are attributable to polluted air from fossil combustion. Two more mundane factors help to explain why nuclear power has halved as a share of global electricity production since the 1990s. They are time and money. <h2>The might of Wright’s law</h2> There are four arguments against investment in nuclear power: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant">Olkiluoto 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3">Flamanville 3</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station">Hinkley Point C</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant">Vogtle</a>. These are the four major latest-generation plants completed or near completion in Finland, the United States, the United Kingdom and France respectively. Cost overruns at these recent plants average over 300%, with more increases to come. The cost of Vogtle, for example, soared from US$14 billion to $34 billion (A$22-53 billion), Flamanville from €3.3 billion to €19 billion (A$5-31 billion), and <a href="https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/nuclear-economics-lessons-from-lazard-to-hinkley-point-c">Hinkley Point C</a> from £16 billion to as much as £70 billion (A$30-132 billion), including subsidies. Completion of Vogtle <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vogtles-troubles-bring-us-nuclear-challenge-into-focus-2023-08-24/">has been delayed</a> by seven years, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-18-years-europes-largest-nuclear-reactor-start-regular-output-sunday-2023-04-15/">Olkiluoto</a> by 14 years, and <a href="https://www.nucnet.org/news/decree-sets-startup-deadline-of-2024-4-3-2020">Flamanville</a> by at least 12 years. A fifth case is <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station">Virgil C</a>, also in the US, for which US$9 billion (A$14 billion) was spent before cost overruns led the project to be abandoned. All three firms building these five plants – Westinghouse, EDF, and AREVA – went bankrupt or were nationalised. Consumers, companies and taxpayers <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/18/hinkley-points-cost-consumers-surges-50bn/">will bear the costs</a> for decades. By contrast, average cost overruns for wind and solar are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/we.2069">around zero</a>, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629614000942">lowest</a> of all energy infrastructure. <a href="https://ark-invest.com/wrights-law/">Wright’s law</a> states the more a technology is produced, the more its costs decline. Wind and especially solar power and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline">lithium-ion batteries</a> have all experienced <a href="https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2023/Aug/Renewables-Competitiveness-Accelerates-Despite-Cost-Inflation">astonishing cost declines</a> over the last two decades. For nuclear power, though, Wright’s law has been inverted. The more capacity installed, the more costs have increased. Why? This <a href="https://www.cell.com/joule/pdf/S2542-4351(20)30458-X.pdf">2020 MIT study</a> found that safety improvements accounted for around 30% of nuclear cost increases, but the lion’s share was due to persistent flaws in management, design, and supply chains. In Australia, such costs and delays would ensure that we miss our emissions reduction targets. They would also mean spiralling electricity costs, as the grid waited for generation capacity that did not come. For fossil fuel firms and their political friends, this is the real attraction of nuclear – another decade or two of sales at inflated prices. <h2>Comparing the cost of nuclear and renewables</h2> Nevertheless, nuclear advocates tell us we have no choice: wind and solar power are intermittent power sources, and the cost of making them reliable is too high. But let’s compare the cost of reliably delivering a megawatt hour of electricity to the grid from nuclear versus wind and solar. According to both <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP2022-5511&dsid=DS1">the CSIRO</a> and respected energy market analyst <a href="https://www.lazard.com/media/typdgxmm/lazards-lcoeplus-april-2023.pdf">Lazard Ltd</a>, nuclear power has a cost of A$220 to $350 per megawatt hour produced. Without subsidies or state finance, the four plants cited above generally hit or exceed the high end of this range. By contrast, Australia is already building wind and solar plants at under <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/act-starts-to-bank-its-cheapest-wind-power-yet-in-next-stage-to-kick-out-fossil-fuels/">$45</a> and <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/nsw-gets-stunning-low-price-for-wind-and-solar-in-biggest-renewables-auction/">$35 per megawatt hour</a> respectively. That’s a tenth of the cost of nuclear. The CSIRO has <a href="https://www.csiro.au/-/media/EF/Files/GenCost/GenCost2022-23Final_27-06-2023.pdf">modelled the cost</a> of renewable energy that is firmed – meaning made reliable, mainly via batteries and other storage technologies. It found the necessary transmission lines and storage would add only $25 to $34 per megawatt hour. In short, a reliable megawatt hour from renewables costs around a fifth of one from a nuclear plant. We could build a renewables grid large enough to meet demand twice over, and still pay less than half the cost of nuclear. <h2>The future of nuclear: small modular reactors?</h2> Proponents of nuclear power pin their hopes on <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs#:%7E:text=Small%20modular%20reactors%20(SMRs)%20are,of%20traditional%20nuclear%20power%20reactors.">small modular reactors</a> (SMRs), which replace huge gigawatt-scale units with small units that offer the possibility of being produced at scale. This might allow nuclear to finally harness Wright’s law. Yet commercial SMRs are years from deployment. The US firm <a href="https://www.nuscalepower.com/en">NuScale</a>, scheduled to build two plants in Idaho by 2030, has not yet broken ground, and on-paper costs have already <a href="https://ieefa.org/resources/eye-popping-new-cost-estimates-released-nuscale-small-modular-reactor">ballooned</a> to around A$189 per megawatt hour. And SMRs are decades away from broad deployment. If early examples work well, in the 2030s there will be a round of early SMRs in the US and European countries that have existing nuclear skills and supply chains. If that goes well, we may see a serious rollout from the 2040s onwards. In these same decades, solar, wind, and storage will still be descending the Wright’s law cost curve. Last year the Morrison government was spruiking the goal of getting solar below <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ultra-low-cost-solar-power-a-priority-for-australia-20220108-p59msj.html">$15 per megawatt hour by 2030</a>. SMRs must achieve improbable cost reductions to compete. Finally, SMRs may be necessary and competitive in countries with poor renewable energy resources. But Australia has the richest combined solar and wind resources in the world. <h2>Should we lift the ban?</h2> Given these realities, should Australia lift its ban on nuclear power? A repeal would have no practical effect on what happens in electricity markets, but it might have political effects. A future leader might seek short-term advantage by offering enormous subsidies for nuclear plants. The true costs would arrive years after such a leader had left office. That would be tragic for Australia. With our unmatched solar and wind resources, we have the chance to deliver among the cheapest electricity in the developed world. Mr Dutton may be right that the ban on nuclear is unnecessary. But in terms of getting to net zero as quickly and cheaply as possible, Mr Bowen has the relevant argument. To echo one assessment from the UK, nuclear for Australia would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-30/u-k-risks-looking-economically-insane-with-edf-nuclear-deal">economically insane</a>”.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216891/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/reuben-finighan-157147">Reuben Finighan</a>, PhD candidate at the LSE and Research Fellow at the Superpower Institute, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-nuclear-the-answer-to-australias-climate-crisis-216891">original article</a>. </div>

Domestic Travel

Cafe providing free meals to families faces shutdown

Kirsty Parkes spends a lot of her time providing food and clothes to those in need amid the cost-of-living crisis by running a community cafe. But now, her beloved cafe may close if she doesn't receive urgent financial help. "We need to pay our bills in order to keep this going and if we don't pay our bills, people don't eat," Parkes, who has a big family of her own, told A Current Affair. Community Cafe in Sydney's south-west became a safe haven for dozens of men, women and children, with over 100 people showing up every day. The cafe is a place where people can get food, clothes and toiletries for free, as well as connect with others. "We want to help people restore their value and restore their dignity," Parkes said. "Our currency is just a little bit different. So instead of using money, we use manners. Because manners and kindness are free." However, with an increase in costs and a lack of donations, the beloved cafe may soon be forced to close. "Whether there's a rate rise, whether there's a petrol hike, all of these little things affect us tremendously and affect the numbers here," she said. "We need to come up with some funds really desperately before then just to keep us open," she added. She said that at this stage they require "around about $20,000. Our electricity bill alone is almost $10,000." She added that Cabravale Diggers, who have been paying the cafe's rent, and Liverpool City Council, who have also been providing financial assistance, can't continue to hold responsibility for all of the bills. "We've had fantastic sponsorship, we have fantastic people that back us ... but they can't carry the burden of this," Parkes said. "This is something that the whole community needs to get behind and support." The cafe provides invaluable support for customers like Ted and Lola, who find it hard to find a similar community. "I go to church. Not even a church will help me," Lola said. "These people - I don't even know them and out of nowhere they're taking rich and poor, whoever turns up." "It's hard living on a pension. It's very hard," Ted added. Parkes added that as things are starting to run out, she has had to impose rations, which has been difficult for her. "We've had to then turn around and say 'look today, sorry we can only give you two loaves of bread because we just don't have enough for everyone that's going to come through the door'," Parkes said. "That stuff breaks my heart. It absolutely kills me because people are hungry." From Friday, customers may have to be turned away. "It's terrible. How can we close? We see over 120 people a day. It's terrible," one of the volunteers at the community cafe said. "The community needs it. We can't close. We absolutely cannot close." Those who would like to help the cafe stay open have been encouraged to visit their <a href="https://www.facebook.com/Communitycafe.inc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Facebook page</a>. Image: A Current Affair

Caring

"Rentirement": Bold new proposition for housing crisis

Aussies over 67 are being urged to rent out their homes and retire overseas in a bold new housing proposition floated by Suburbtrends. The property sector market researchers said that “rentirement” is a viable solution to the nation’s current housing crisis, as it would open up over 137,000 homes. Suburbtrends founder Kent Lardner said that current attempts of easing rental stress is not adequate enough. “While increasing housing supply is essential, it simply won’t come fast enough to address the immediate needs of renters.” Rentirement encourages those aged 67 to 77 to release their homes into the rental pool, and retire overseas, with Southeast Asia proposed as an ideal destination due to its significantly lower cost of living. “Our data shows that over 137,000 homes could be released into the rental market if just 10 per cent of the Rentirees cohort participated,” he said. “This represents a substantial untapped resource that could drastically ease rental pressures.” The initiative would offer a five-year moratorium on the loss of the primary place of residence benefit, which they believe this would be a “win-win” situation retirees, renters, and the government, as it could help provide more housing options. “Rentirees can enjoy a higher quality of life at a fraction of the cost, renters gain access to more housing, and the government can alleviate pressure on the housing market without significant expenditure,” he said. Lardner added that “rentirement” would lead to an immediate influx of rental properties, stabilising prices and reducing vacancy rates. “We believe rentirement offers a practical and timely solution to Australia’s rental crisis,” he said. “It’s time to think outside the box and explore every avenue to ensure a stable, affordable housing market for all Australians.” This comes after PropTrack reported that there has been a drastic reduction in affordable rental homes, with the amount of rental properties costing less than $400 a week plummeting from 43.2 per cent at the start of the pandemic to just 10.4 per cent now. Image: Steve Tritton/ Shutterstock

Money & Banking

Dad forced to live in tent amid housing crisis

An Aussie dad is the latest to fall victim to the housing crisis, with soaring rent and low vacancy rates forcing him to live in a tent. Peter Woodforde, 58, has been forced to live makeshift gazebo wrapped in tarps that's set up in an Adelaide park, and while his children know that he is doing it tough, they don't know that he is homeless and living in a tent. The father has yet to tell his kids, who live with their mother, that he's unable to find a suitable place to live as he said that they would be distraught if they found out. He admitted his 15-year-old daughter once told him that it "hurt her" to know her dad was struggling to find a comfortable place to live - but she doesn't know the extent of it. Speaking to 7News, Woodforde said it's been difficult not being able to offer his kids a place to sleep. “Every parent wants to give their kids everything they possibly can and wants to give them the best chance of having a good life,” he told the publication. “What I say to them is that this is only temporary, Dad will get back on his feet. “(But) you’re missing out on some golden years ... I help where I can, I might pick them up and drop them off from school, but now they’re too far for me to do that,” he added. "I have to get myself off the street. I have to get my family into a house." Woodforde is sharing his story because he believes that homelessness is in a “state of emergency”, especially with winter approaching. He is also unsure about whether his makeshift tent will collapse when heavier rain hits, and hopes that more could be done to help these people facing desperate circumstances. “We’re coming into the colder months - what’s the bill going to be for all the health problems that are going to arise out of this?" he said. Images: 7News

Money & Banking

Channel 10 axes another show amid ratings crisis

Channel 10 has decided to axe yet another popular show as they continue to grapple with declining ratings and viewers leaving. Following the cancellation of The Bachelors and The Masked Singer, <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-13449749/Channel-10-axes-amid-ratings-crisis-revealed-Channel-Seven-considering-saving-unlikely-series.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Daily Mail Australia</a> reported that the network was also cancelling Gladiators. Despite the show's success in the UK, the Australian reboot struggled to find the same effect as they failed to sustain their initial viewership. The show produced by Warner Bros and hosted by Beau Ryan and Liz Ellis was launched with high hopes and attracted 395,000 metro viewers during its premiere. However, by the second episode the numbers plummeted to just 196,000 - over half of the initial viewership. Critics on social media were also quick to point out the lack of crowd presence, despite the show being filmed under normal conditions, with one person saying: "It felt like watching an event without any real energy." The Traitors is another the show that was axed by the network after just two seasons, and now an insider has revealed that Channel Seven is considering commissioning the series. "The show's concept has potential, but it needs a fresh approach and a new platform," the insider told Daily Mail Australia. They also shared what's in store for Channel 10 as they attempt to revive their ratings. "Channel 10 is now deciding to put all their eggs in one basket, planning to roll out not one, but two seasons of Australian Survivor in 2025," the insider said. "They are putting together a 10th season special as well as an Australia vs USA Survivor all-star showdown which will be screened simultaneously in America and Down Under." A Channel 10 executive said: "Survivor has consistently performed well for us, and we believe this new approach will reignite audience interest." The Daily Mail reported that they have contacted Channel Seven and 10 for a comment. Image: Ten

Are some routes more prone to air turbulence? Will climate change make it worse? Your questions answered

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871">Doug Drury</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> A little bit of turbulence is a common experience for air travellers. Severe incidents are rare – but when they occur they can be deadly. The recent Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 from London to Singapore shows the danger. An <a href="https://apnews.com/article/singapore-airlines-flight-turbulence-5a9a268e1a6a6fb9ece7e58b5ea9231b">encounter with extreme turbulence</a> during normal flight left one person dead from a presumed heart attack and several others badly injured. The flight diverted to land in Bangkok so the severely injured passengers could receive hospital treatment. Air turbulence can happen anywhere, but is far more common on some routes than on others. Climate change is expected to boost the chances of air turbulence, and make it more intense. In fact, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z">some research</a> indicates turbulence <a href="https://theconversation.com/aviation-turbulence-soared-by-up-to-55-as-the-world-warmed-new-research-207574">has already worsened</a> over the past few decades. <h2>Where does turbulence happen?</h2> Nearly every flight experiences turbulence in one form or another. If an aircraft is taking off or landing behind another aircraft, the wind generated by the engine and <a href="https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/publications/atpubs/aim_html/chap7_section_4.html">wingtips</a> of the lead aircraft can cause “wake turbulence” for the one behind. Close to ground level, there may be turbulence due to strong winds associated with weather patterns moving through the area near an airport. At higher altitudes, there may be wake turbulence again (if flying close to another aircraft), or turbulence due to updraughts or downdraughts from a thunderstorm. Another kind of turbulence that occurs at higher altitudes is harder to predict or avoid. So-called “<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023gl103814">clear-air turbulence</a>” is invisible, as the name suggests. It is often caused by warmer air rising into cooler air, and is generally expected to get worse due to climate change. At the most basic level turbulence is the result of two or more wind events colliding and creating eddies, or swirls of <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/what-is-turbulence-explained">disrupted airflow</a>. It often occurs near mountain ranges, as wind flowing over the terrain accelerates upward. Turbulence also often occurs at the edges of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/what-is-turbulence-explained">jet streams</a>. These are narrow bands of strong, high-altitude winds circling the globe. Aircraft often travel in the jet streams to get a speed boost – but when entering or leaving the jet stream, there may be some turbulence as it crosses the boundary with the slower winds outside. <h2>What are the most turbulent routes?</h2> It is possible to <a href="https://turbli.com/maps/world-turbulence-map/">map turbulence patterns</a> over the whole world. Airlines use these maps to plan in advance for alternate airports or other essential contingencies. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595676/original/file-20240522-21-ippmyt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Map showing air turbulence." /></a><figcaption>A map of estimated clear-air turbulence around the world, current as of 3:00PM AEST (0500 UTC) on May 22 2024. <a class="source" href="https://turbli.com/maps/world-turbulence-map/">Turbli</a></figcaption></figure> While turbulence changes with weather conditions, some regions and routes are more prone to it than others. As you can see from the list below, the majority of the most turbulent routes travel close to mountains. <iframe id="EktuH" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/EktuH/2/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> In Australia, the <a href="https://turbli.com/historical-data/most-turbulent-flight-routes-of-2023/">highest average turbulence in 2023</a> occurred on the Brisbane to Sydney route, followed by Melbourne to Sydney and Brisbane to Melbourne. <h2>Climate change may increase turbulence</h2> How will climate change affect the future of aviation? A <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814">study published last year</a> found evidence of large increases in clear-air turbulence between 1979 and 2020. In some locations severe turbulence increased by as much as 55%. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=253&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/595683/original/file-20240522-17-p2zdrt.png?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=318&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="A map of the world with different areas shaded in red." /></a><figcaption>A map showing changes in the chance of clear-air turbulence across the globe between 1979 and 2020. Darker red indicates a higher chance of turbulence. <a class="source" href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103814">Prosser et al. (2023), Geophysical Research Letters</a></figcaption></figure> In 2017, a <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074618">different study used climate modelling</a> to project that clear-air turbulence may be four times as common as it used to be by 2050, under some climate change scenarios. <h2>What can be done about turbulence?</h2> What can be done to mitigate turbulence? <a href="https://safetyfirst.airbus.com/optimum-use-of-weather-radar/">Technology to detect turbulence</a> is still in the research and development phase, so pilots use the knowledge they have from weather radar to determine the best plan to avoid weather patterns with high levels of moisture directly ahead of their flight path. Weather radar imagery shows the pilots where the most intense turbulence can be expected, and they work with air traffic control to avoid those areas. When turbulence is encountered unexpectedly, the pilots immediately turn on the “fasten seatbelt” sign and reduce engine thrust to slow down the plane. They will also be in touch with air traffic control to find better conditions either by climbing or descending to smoother air. Ground-based meteorological centres can see weather patterns developing with the assistance of satellites. They provide this information to flight crews in real time, so the crew knows the weather to expect throughout their flight. This can also include areas of expected turbulence if storms develop along the intended flight route. It seems we are heading into more turbulent times. Airlines will do all they can to reduce the impact on planes and passengers. But for the average traveller, the message is simple: when they tell you to fasten your seatbelt, you should listen.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/230666/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/doug-drury-1277871">Doug Drury</a>, Professor/Head of Aviation, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/cquniversity-australia-2140">CQUniversity Australia</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-some-routes-more-prone-to-air-turbulence-will-climate-change-make-it-worse-your-questions-answered-230666">original article</a>. </div>

Travel Trouble

“Greedy” landlord slammed for illegal act

A Victorian landlord has been slammed on social media after admitting to making her tenants pay an illegal pet bond amounting to $1000. The woman made the admission while replying to a post on a Facebook group for Victorian landlords after a member asked for advice about renting to tenants who have pets. "Not knowing everything but in my experience I would rather have pets than kids!" the landlord began. "I would ask for a pet bond. I have one it's $1000 for damages by the pet," she said Pet bonds are illegal in Victoria, and landlords who try to secure it illegally often describe it as a way to cover costs if their pet causes any damages to the property. When the poster replied saying that her tenant offered to provide a pet bond, but she knows they're not legal in Victoria, the landlord confessed that: "I know they are not legal but I always ask for them and my PM (property manager) has been great about them.” “I have lots of pets personally and don’t turn down animals. Again, kids have done more damage than animals in my experience,” she added. “Most renters are happy to do it as it means they can have animals.” In Victoria renters who want a pet on the property must ask the rental provider, and if they refuse the request, the landlord must provide a valid excuse, with assistance dogs being the exception. If a pet causes damages to a property, the cost of these damages can be taken out of the regular bond paid at the start of their tenancy, so a pet bond is not required. Western Australia is the only state where landlords can legally ask for a pet bond, but even then they can only charge a maximum of $260 regardless of how many pets there are. A screenshot of the landlords shocking admission was shared on X by by popular renter’s advocate, Jordie van den Berg with the caption: “Landlord: ‘yeah I know it’s not legal, but I do it anyway’." Outraged renters slammed the landlord's “greedy” and “vile” behaviour, with one calling it “emotional blackmail”. “‘Most renters are happy to pay’ – I’m sure none of them are happy but they need somewhere to live without having to give up their pet," one wrote. “I personally would not describe myself as ‘happy’ to be exploited over an illegal bond that I can’t dispute when you go ahead and invent some bulls**t to keep it because the alternative is that it’s almost impossible to get a rental with pets,” another added. “The most concerning thing is the manager, how many illegal bonds have they taken and where is the money being held? In the agents account, with the owner? It wouldn’t be with fair trading where legal bonds are lodged,” a third wrote. This comes after a recent Rental Affordability report shared by Anglicare Australia revealed that “the housing crisis is the worst it’s ever been." According to the report only 0.6 per cent out of 45,000 listings across the country were considered affordable for a person earning a full-time minimum wage. Image: Jordie Berg/ X/ Shutterstock

Legal

Rough seas or smooth sailing? The cruise industry is booming despite environmental concerns

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/frederic-dimanche-836528">Frédéric Dimanche</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/toronto-metropolitan-university-1607">Toronto Metropolitan University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kelley-a-mcclinchey-1287281">Kelley A. McClinchey</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/wilfrid-laurier-university-1817">Wilfrid Laurier University</a> Cruise ship season is officially underway in British Columbia. The season kicked off with the arrival of Norwegian Bliss on April 3 — the <a href="https://www.cheknews.ca/first-cruise-ship-of-the-season-to-arrive-in-victoria-in-less-than-2-weeks-1196426/">first of 318 ships</a> that are scheduled to dock in Victoria this year. Victoria saw a record 970,000 passengers arrive in 2023, with more expected in 2024. The cruise industry <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100391">was badly hit</a> by the <a href="https://financialpost.com/financial-times/the-2020s-were-meant-to-be-a-boom-decade-for-cruises-then-covid-19-hit-them-like-a-tidal-wave">suspension of cruise operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic</a> in 2020. Fuelled by heavy consumer demand and industry innovation, cruising has made a comeback. It is now one of the fastest-growing sectors, rebounding even faster than international tourism. While many predicted <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/carnivals-struggle-to-survive-the-coronavirus-as-outbreak-wipes-out-the-cruise-industry.html">a difficult recovery</a>, a <a href="https://cruising.org/en">recent industry report shows a remarkable post-pandemic rebound</a>. Two million more people went on cruises in 2023 versus 2019, with demand predicted to top 35 million in 2024. But environmental issues plague the sector’s revival. Are they an indication of rough seas ahead? Or will a responsive industry mean smooth sailing? Cruising has long been criticized <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/their-purpose-is-to-be-fun-but-theres-a-dark-side-to-cruising-the-seas/dzxivdoos">for being Janus-faced</a>: on the surface, cruises are convenient, exciting holidays with reputed economic benefits. But lurking underneath are its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.11.002">negative environmental and social impacts</a>. <h2>Unprecedented growth</h2> Newly constructed mega-ships are part of the industry’s unprecedented growth. Royal Caribbean’s Icon of the Seas is the <a href="https://www.cruisehive.com/top-10-biggest-cruise-ships-in-the-world/66448">largest cruise ship in the world</a>, with 18 decks, 5,600 passengers and 2,350 crew. MSC World Europa with 6,700 passengers and 2,100 crew, P&O Arvia with 5,200 passengers and 1,800 crew, and Costa Smeralda with 6,600 passengers and 1,500 crew also claim mega-ship status. Those sailing to and from Alaska via Victoria will be some of the <a href="https://hakaimagazine.com/features/cruise-ship-invasion/">estimated 700,000 passengers departing Seattle</a> on massive ships three sport fields in length. Baby boomers represent less than 25 per cent of cruise clientele. Gen X, <a href="https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/life/2024/01/15/cruise-millennials-gen-z">Millennials and Gen Z</a> have more interest than ever in cruising, with these younger markets being targeted as the future of cruise passengers. The Cruise Lines International Association asserts that <a href="https://cruising.org/-/media/clia-media/research/2024/2024-state-of-the-cruise-industry-report_041424_web.ashx">82 per cent of those who have cruised will cruise again</a>. To entice first-timers and meet the needs of repeat cruisers, companies are offering new itineraries and onboard activities, from <a href="https://www.timescolonist.com/business/royal-caribbean-quantum-cruise-ship-1st-at-sea-bumper-cars-skydiving-observation-capsule-4585987">simulated skydiving and bumper cars</a> to <a href="https://nationalpost.com/travel/cruise-ship-offers-pickleball-on-the-high-seas">pickleball</a> and lawn bowling. Solo cruise travel is also on the rise, and <a href="https://www.cruisetradenews.com/demand-for-multi-generational-cruise-holidays-on-the-up-data-finds/">multi-generational family cruise travel</a> is flourishing, explaining the extensive variety of cabin classes, activities and restaurants available on newly constructed and retrofitted ships. However, only a few cruise ports are large enough to dock mega ships. Cruise lines are responding by offering off-beat experiences and catering more to the distinct desires of travellers. In doing so, there is a <a href="https://www.positivelyosceola.com/2024s-top-cruise-trends-embracing-smaller-ships-solo-adventures-and-luxury-suites/">move towards smaller vessels and luxury liners</a>, river cruises and <a href="https://www.travelweek.ca/news/cruise/expedition-cruising-what-is-it-and-how-do-you-sell-it/">expedition cruising</a>. Leveraging lesser-known ports that can only be accessed via compact luxury ships <a href="https://www.cntraveler.com/story/small-cruise-ships-are-more-sustainble-and-on-the-rise">offers more mission-driven, catered experiences</a> for the eco-minded traveller. <h2>Cruising and environmental costs</h2> Cruise ship visitors are known to negatively impact Marine World Heritage sites. While most sites regulate ballast water and wastewater discharge, there are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020611">concerns about ship air emissions and wildlife interactions</a>. Cruise ship journeys along Canada’s west coast, for example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/09/us-cruise-ships-using-canada-as-toilet-bowl-for-polluted-waste-alaska-british-columbia">are leaving behind a trail of toxic waste</a>. <a href="https://foe.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Comparison_of_CO2_Emissions_v2.pdf">A study by environmental organization Friends of the Earth</a> concluded that a cruise tourist generates eight times more carbon emissions per day than a land tourist in Seattle. Also, a rise in expedition cruising means more negative impacts (long-haul flights to farther ports, less destination management in fragile ecosystems, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/03/briefing/last-chance-tourism.html">last chance tourism</a>) and a rise in carbon dioxide emissions. Toxic air pollutants from cruise ships around ports are higher than pre-pandemic levels, <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/discover/europes-luxury-cruise-ships-emit-as-much-toxic-sulphur-as-1bn-cars-study/">leaving Europe’s port cities “choking on air pollution</a>.” Last year, Europe’s 218 cruise ships emitted as much sulphur oxides as one billion cars — a high number, considering the introduction of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30002-4">International Maritime Organization’s sulphur cap in 2020</a>. <h2>Rough seas ahead or smooth sailing?</h2> Royal Caribbean said its Icon of the Seas is designed to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/worlds-largest-cruise-ship-sets-sail-bringing-concerns-about-methane-emissions-2024-01-27/">operate 24 per cent more efficiently than the international standard</a> for new ships. International Maritime Organization regulations <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-22/royal-caribbean-s-icon-of-the-seas-highlights-climate-impact-of-cruises">must be 30 per cent more energy-efficient</a> than those built in 2014. But despite the industry using liquefied natural gas instead of heavy fuel oil and electric shore power to turn off diesel engines when docking, industry critics still claim <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/26/icon-of-the-seas-largest-cruise-ship-human-lasagne-climate-fuel-lng-greenwashing">the cruise sector is greenwashing</a>. As a result, some cities like Amsterdam, Barcelona and Venice are <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/07/21/war-on-cruise-ships-amsterdam-latest-port-to-limit-or-ban-cruise-liners">limiting or banning cruise ships</a>. Environmental critiques remain strong, especially for <a href="https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijegeo/issue/65449/957262">polar expeditions</a>. The industry must respond and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-01949-4_131">increase sustainability efforts</a>, but their measures remain reactive (i.e., merely meeting international regulations) rather than proactive. In addition, by sailing their ships under <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/13/real-problem-with-cruise-industry/">flags of convenience</a>, cruise companies evade taxes and demonstrate an unwillingness to abide by a nation’s environmental, health and labour regulations. In any case, environmental concerns are escalating along with the industry. <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/cruising-green-eco-operators-make-waves">Travel agents and industry figures are aware of these impacts</a> and should help promote cruise lines that demonstrate a commitment to sustainable practices. Local residents need to expect more from port authorities and local governments in order <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2024.103732">to cope with cruise tourism</a>. Cruise consumers should recognize the environmental costs of cruising, and demand accountability and transparency from cruise lines.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/228181/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/frederic-dimanche-836528">Frédéric Dimanche</a>, Professor and Director, Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/toronto-metropolitan-university-1607">Toronto Metropolitan University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kelley-a-mcclinchey-1287281">Kelley A. McClinchey</a>, Teaching Faculty, Geography and Environmental Studies, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/wilfrid-laurier-university-1817">Wilfrid Laurier University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/rough-seas-or-smooth-sailing-the-cruise-industry-is-booming-despite-environmental-concerns-228181">original article</a>. </div>

Cruising

Our housing system is broken and the poorest Australians are being hardest hit

<div class="theconversation-article-body"> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-viforj-113482">Rachel Ong ViforJ</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873">Curtin University</a> Just when we think the price of rentals could not get any worse, this week’s <a href="https://www.anglicare.asn.au/publications/2023-rental-affordability-snapshot/">Rental Affordability Snapshot</a> by Anglicare has revealed low-income Australians are facing a housing crisis like never before. In fact, if you rely on the <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/youth-allowance">Youth Allowance</a>, there is not a single rental property across Australia you can afford this week. <h2>How did rental affordability get this bad?</h2> Several post-COVID factors have been blamed, including our preference for <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/jun/new-insights-into-the-rental-market.html">more space, the return of international migrants</a>, and <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news-research/news/2023/could-the-peak-in-interest-rates-signal-an-end-to-rising-rents">rising interest rates</a>. However, the rental affordability crisis pre-dates COVID. Affordability has been steadily declining for decades, as successive governments have failed to make shelter more affordable for low-to-moderate income Australians. <h2>The market is getting squeezed at both ends</h2> At the lower end of the rental sector, the growth in the supply of social housing persistently lags behind demand, trending at under <a href="https://povertyandinequality.acoss.org.au/data/annual-growth-rates-social-housing-stock-and-population-2011-2020/">one-third</a> the rate of population growth. <hr /> <iframe id="OA0cS" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/OA0cS/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> This has forced growing numbers of low-income Australians to seek shelter in the private rental sector, where they face intense competition from higher-income renters. At the upper end, more and more aspiring home buyers are getting <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03085147.2021.2003086">locked out</a> of home ownership. A recent <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-02/AHURI-Final-Report-416-Affordable-private-rental-supply-and-demand-short-term-disruption.pdf">study</a> found more households with higher incomes are now renting. Households earning <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2024-02/AHURI-Final-Report-416-Affordable-private-rental-supply-and-demand-short-term-disruption.pdf">$140,000</a> a year or more (in 2021 dollars) accounted for just 8% of private renters in 1996. By 2021, this tripled to 24%. No doubt, this crowds out lower-income households who are now facing a shortage of affordable homes to rent. <h2>Why current policies are not working</h2> Worsening affordability in the private rental sector highlights a housing system that is broken. Current policies just aren’t working. While current policies focus on supply, more work is needed including fixing <a href="https://theconversation.com/governments-are-pouring-money-into-housing-but-materials-land-and-labour-are-still-in-short-supply-205471">labour shortages</a> and providing greater <a href="https://theconversation.com/people-want-and-need-more-housing-choice-its-about-time-governments-stood-up-to-deliver-it-122390">stock diversity</a>. The planning system plays a critical role and <a href="https://theconversation.com/confusing-and-not-delivering-enough-developers-and-councils-want-new-affordable-housing-rules-139762">zoning rules</a> can be reformed to support the supply of more affordable options. However, the housing affordability challenge is not solely a supply problem. There is also a need to respond to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-prices-are-climbing-alright-but-not-for-the-reason-you-might-think-158776">super-charged demand</a> in the property market. An overheated market will undoubtedly place intense pressure on the rental sector because aspiring first home buyers are forced to rent for longer, as house prices soar at a rate unmatched by their wages. Yet, governments continue to resist calls for winding back the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-15/ken-henry-australias-tax-system-in-worse-position-after-15-years/103465044">generous tax concessions</a> enjoyed by multi-property owners. The main help available to low-income private renters - the Commonwealth Rent Assistance scheme - is <a href="https://theconversation.com/1-billion-per-year-or-less-could-halve-rental-housing-stress-146397">poorly targeted</a> with nearly one in five low-income renters who are in rental stress deemed ineligible, while another one in four receive it despite not being in rental stress. <h2>Can affordable housing occur naturally?</h2> Some commentators support the theory of <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-09/Executive-Summary-FR387-Filtering-as-a-source-of-low-income-housing-in-Australia-conceptualisation-and-testing.pdf">filtering</a> - a market-based process by which the supply of new dwellings in more expensive segments creates additional supply of dwellings for low-income households as high-income earners vacate their former dwellings. Proponents of filtering argue building more housing anywhere - even in wealthier ends of the property market - will eventually improve affordability across the board because lower priced housing will trickle down to the poorest households. However, the persistent affordability crisis low-income households face and the rise in homelessness are crucial signs filtering <a href="https://cloud.3dissue.com/122325/122578/143598/WhyNewSupplyisnotExpandingHousingOptionsfortheHomeless/html5/index.html?page=1&noflash">does not work well</a> and <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-09/AHURI-Final-Report-387-Filtering-as-a-source-of-low-income-housing-in-Australia-conceptualisation-and-testing.pdf">cannot be relied upon</a> to produce lower cost housing. <h2>Location, location, location</h2> Location does matter, if we expect building new housing to work for low-income individuals. What is needed is a steady increase of affordable, quality housing in areas offering low-income renters the same access to jobs and amenities as higher-income households. The <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/housing-policy/accord#:%7E:text=The%20Accord%20includes%20an%20initial,5%20years%20from%20mid%E2%80%912024.">National Housing Accord</a> aims to deliver 1.2 million new dwellings over five years from mid-2024. But it must ensure these are “well-located” for people who need affordable housing, as suggested in the accord. Recent <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02673037.2023.229051">modelling</a> shows unaffordable housing and poor neighbourhoods both negatively affect mental health, reinforcing the need to provide both affordable and well-located housing. <h2>The upcoming budget</h2> While the <a href="https://www.dss.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/05_2023/payments-cra_budget_fact_sheet_fa_0.pdf">15% increase</a> in the maximum rent assistance rate was welcomed in the last budget, the program is long overdue for a major restructure to target those in rental stress. Also, tax concessions on second properties should be wound back to reduce competition for those struggling to buy their first home. This would eventually help ease affordability pressures on low-income renters as more higher-income renters <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-8454.12335">shift into homeownership</a>. The potential negative impacts on rental supply can be mitigated by careful design of tax and other changes that guard against market destabilisation concerns. Overall, housing affordability solutions have to be multi-faceted. The housing system is badly broken and meaningful repair cannot be achieved unless policymakers are willing to confront both supply and demand challenges.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/228511/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rachel-ong-viforj-113482">Rachel Ong ViforJ</a>, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/curtin-university-873">Curtin University</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-housing-system-is-broken-and-the-poorest-australians-are-being-hardest-hit-228511">original article</a>. </div>

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Family of eight forced to live in tent amid rental crisis

A family of eight have been forced to live in a tent for over six months as they wait to find suitable accommodation after their last rental lease ended. Cameron and Tameka Fletcher and their six children, aged between one and 10, have been living in a tent and have had to move from campsite to campsite since September. The couple claimed that the government can't support them because they have "too many children", and are waiting for public housing, but they might not meet the criteria to be eligible for it. They were reportedly staying in a makeshift tent city in a suburban park north of Brisbane. "We've always had a house, we've never done this," Cameron Fletcher told Nine News. "Everyone here is going through the same thing. But it's the only way to get help." “We can only do what’s best for our kids, to keep a roof over their heads,” his wife added. One of the couple's daughters is due to start school next year, and they have been struggling to enrol her as the family doesn't have a permanent address. The family said they are also struggling with day-to-day activities like finding breakfast, washing their clothes and getting the kids ready for school, and are using solar camping showers purchased from Kmart to clean themselves. According to Nine News, the family would be happy with a three-bedroom home but were told by state housing officials that they can only be offered a five-bedroom home to avoid overcrowding, but there are currently none available. In a statement issued to Yahoo News, a spokesperson for Department of Housing said it “has been working with the family since September last year, including providing accommodation which they chose to leave”. "As we’ve been assisting them to find longer-term options, they have declined further offers of accommodation," the spokesperson said. "With regards to social housing, there are eligibility factors that need to be met, including income thresholds. However, the department continues to work with the family to find a private rental and give any other support they might need." This comes as new <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/rent-shock-what-youll-be-paying-in-every-australian-suburb-in-2024/news-story/10b67da9ebe170a2e2d37caa7e66bf40" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PropTrack</a> data, released in March, revealed that rent has increased by 17 per cent over the past 12 months, across all the capital cities in Australia. More than half of Queenslanders who have applied for social housing are reportedly homeless and have had to wait for over two years amid a lack of supply and increased demands. Earlier this year, the Queensland government announced it was aiming to build another 53,500 social homes by 2046, with a $3.1 billion funding boost to deliver one million homes. Images: Nine News

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