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Australians are having fewer babies and our local-born population is about to shrink: here’s why it’s not that scary

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amanda-davies-201009">Amanda Davies</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> Australians are having fewer babies, so many fewer that without international migration our population would be on track to decline in just over a decade. In most circumstances, the number of babies per woman that a population needs to sustain itself – the so-called <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/indicator-metadata-registry/imr-details/123">total fertility rate</a> – is 2.1. Australia’s total fertility rate dipped below 2.1 in the late 1970s, moved back up towards it in the late 2000s (assisted in part by an improving economy, better access to childcare and the introduction of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-baby-bonus-boost-looks-like-across-ten-years-81563">Commonwealth Baby Bonus</a>), and then plunged again, hitting a low of <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071#assumptions">1.59</a> during the first year of COVID. <hr /> <iframe id="CHdqj" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CHdqj/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> The latest population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics assume the rate remains near its present 1.6% for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/population-projections-australia/2022-base-2071#assumptions">the next 50 years</a>. An alternative, lower, set of assumptions has the rate falling to 1.45 over the next five years and staying there. A higher set of assumptions has it rebounding to 1.75 and staying there. A comprehensive study of global fertility trends published in March in the medical journal <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">The Lancet</a> has Australia’s central case at 1.45, followed by a fall to 1.33 by the end of the century. Significantly, none of these assumptions envisages a return to replacement rate. The bureau’s central projection has Australia’s population turning down from 2037 in the absence of a boost from migration. <hr /> <iframe id="oi55c" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oi55c/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> It’s easy to make guesses about reasons. Reliable contraception has been widely available for 50 years. Rents, mortgages and the other costs facing Australians of child-bearing age appear to be climbing. It’s still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-17/career-or-baby-michelle-battersby-pregnancy-gender-/103186296">difficult to have a career</a> if you have a child, and data show women still carry the substantive burden of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mind-the-gap-gender-differences-in-time-use-narrowing-but-slowly-191678">unpaid work around the home</a>. The US fertility rate has fallen <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-per-woman-un?tab=chart&time=1950..latest&country=OWID_WRL%7EUSA%7EAUS">much in line with Australia’s</a>. Reporting on <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-birth-rates-are-at-record-lows-even-though-the-number-of-kids-most-americans-say-they-want-has-held-steady-197270">research</a> into the reasons, Forbes Magazine succinctly said a broken economy had “<a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/millennials-broken-economy-delay-children-birthrate/">screwed over</a>” Americans considering having children. More diplomatically, it said Americans saw parenthood as “<a href="https://fortune.com/2023/01/12/millennials-broken-economy-delay-children-birthrate/">harder to manage</a>” than they might have in the past. <h2>Half the world is unable to replace itself</h2> But this trend is widespread. The <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">Lancet study</a> finds more than half of the world’s countries have a fertility rate below replacement level. <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-shrinks-again-and-could-more-than-halve-heres-what-that-means-220667">China</a>, which is important for the global fertility rate because it makes up such a large share of the world’s population, had a fertility rate as high as 7.5 in the early 1960s. It fell to 2.5 before the start of China’s <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135510/chinas-one-child-policy-what-was-it-and-what-impact-did-it">one-child</a> policy in the early 1990s, and then slid further from 1.8 to 1 after the policy was abandoned in 2016. <hr /> <iframe id="idC4X" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/idC4X/3/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <hr /> South Korea’s fertility rate has dived further, to the world’s lowest: <a href="https://time.com/6488894/south-korea-low-fertility-rate-trend-decline/">0.72</a>. The fertility rate in India, which is now <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-153-india-overtakes-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">more populous than China</a>, has also fallen <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?page=&locations=IN">below replacement level</a>. Most of the 94 nations that continue to have above-replacement fertility rates are in North Africa, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Some, including Samoa and Papua New Guinea, are in the Pacific. Most of Asia, Europe and Oceania is already below replacement rate. <h2>A changing world order</h2> The largest high-fertility African nation, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/the-world-population-in-2100-by-country/">Nigeria</a>, is expected to overtake China to become the world’s second-most-populous nation by the end of the century. But even Nigeria’s fertility rate will sink. The Lancet projections have it sliding from 4.7 to <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext#%20">1.87</a> by the end of the century. The differences mean the world’s population growth will increasingly take place in countries that are among the most vulnerable to environmental and economic hardship. Already economically disadvantaged, these nations will need to provide jobs, housing, healthcare and services for rapidly growing populations at a time when the rest of the world does not. On the other hand, those nations will be blessed with young people. They will be an increasingly valuable resource as other nations face the challenges of an ageing population and declining workforce. <h2>An older world, then a smaller world</h2> Global fertility <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">halved</a> between 1950 and 2021, shrinking from 4.84 to 2.23. The latest projections have it sinking below the replacement rate to somewhere between 1.59 and 2.08 by 2050, and then to between <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">1.25 and 1.96</a> by 2100. The world has already seen peak births and peak primary-school-aged children. In <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)00550-6/fulltext">2016</a>, the world welcomed about 142 million live babies, and since then the number born each year has fallen. By 2021, it was about 129 million. The global school-age population aged 6 to 11 years peaked at around 820 million in <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-152-population-education-and-sustainable-development-interlinkages-and-select-policy-implications/">2023</a>. The United Nations expects the world’s population to peak at 10.6 billion in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-planet-s-population-will-get-to-10-4-billion-then-drop-here-s-when-we-reach-peak-human-20231213-p5er8g.html">2086</a>, after which it will begin to fall. Another forecast, produced as part of the impressive <a href="https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd">Global Burden of Disease</a> study, has the peak occurring two decades earlier in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext">2064</a>, with the world’s population peaking at 9.73 billion. <h2>Fewer babies are a sign of success</h2> In many ways, a smaller world is to be welcomed. The concern common <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090">in the 1960s and 1970s</a> that the world’s population was growing faster and faster and the world would soon be unable to feed itself has turned out to be misplaced. Aside from occasional blips (China’s birth rate in the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1973601">Year of the Dragon</a>) the fertility trend in just about every nation on Earth is downwards. The world’s population hasn’t been growing rapidly for long. Before 1700 it grew by only about <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time">0.4% per year</a>. By 2100 it will have stabilised and started to fall, limiting the period of unusually rapid growth to four centuries. In an important way, lower birth rates can be seen as a sign of success. The richer a society becomes and the more it is able to look after its seniors, the less important it becomes for each couple to have children to care for them in old age. This is a long-established theory with a name: the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4116081/">demographic transition</a>. For Australia, even with forecast immigration, lower fertility will mean changes. The government’s 2023 <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/publication/2023-intergenerational-report">Intergenerational Report</a> says that whereas there are now 3.7 Australians of traditional working age for each Australian aged 65 and over, by 2063 there will only be 2.6. It will mean those 2.6 people will have to work smarter, perhaps with greater assistance from artificial intelligence. Unless they decide to have more babies, which history suggests they won’t.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/228273/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/amanda-davies-201009">Amanda Davies</a>, Professor and Head of School of Social Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-western-australia-1067">The University of Western Australia</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-having-fewer-babies-and-our-local-born-population-is-about-to-shrink-heres-why-its-not-that-scary-228273">original article</a>. </div>

Family & Pets

The world's most promiscuous countries revealed

An analysis of the world's sexual habits has revealed the top 10 most promiscuous countries in the world and Turkey came in first. The average Turk has slept with more than 14 people according to the World Population Review, with Australia coming in a close second with the average Aussie having slept with more than 13 people, according to the New York Post. “The average number of sexual partners can vary significantly from country to country, as cultural norms can have a significant impact on the number of people someone has sex with,” the website declared. Their figures were based on a compilation of “datasets from multiple third party sources.” Turkey's top spot may be surprising to some, with most residents being muslim and the country is widely conceived to have traditional views when it comes sex and relationships. New Zealand came in at third, with a similar number to Australia, followed by Iceland and South Africa. Countries thought to have more liberal views on sex, such as Brazil and France, were lower down the list, with the average Brazilian sleeping with nine people putting them in 25th place, while France clocked in 29th position. The United States clocked in 13th place, with Americans sleeping with an average of 10.7 people. Here's the Top 10 most promiscuous countries: 1. Turkey (14.5 people) 2. Australia (13.3) 3. New Zealand (13.2) 4. Iceland (13.0) 5. South Africa (12.5) 6. Finland (12.4) 7. Norway (12.1) 8. Italy (11.8) 9. Sweden (11.8) 10. Switzerland (11.1) Image: Getty

International Travel

Australia's life expectancy altered by Covid wave

Australia’s life expectancy took a plunge during the Omicron wave in 2022. According to new data, it has been revealed that Omicron was the cause for a 17% spike in deaths. Nearly 130,000 people died during the first eight months of 2022 - 13.2% higher than the same period in 2021, and 17% above the historical average. At least 7700 of those deaths were doctor-certified as being caused by Covid19, six times higher than during the entirety of 2021. The majority of the spike in deaths in 2022 are attributable to the “challenge” of an ageing population. This includes dementia and heart conditions, as the proportion of people aged over 65 continues to grow. The increase in deaths between 2021 to 2023 has resulted in a temporary drop in life expectancies, however that’s expected to gradually increase over coming years. It will reach 87 for women and 83.5 for men by 2033. Treasury’s latest Annual Population Statement reveals as the proportion of Australians over the age of 65 grows, so does the burden on younger workers. The report found that the share of those over the retirement age will grow from 16.8% in 2020-21 to 19.9% in 2032-33 before reaching 23.1% in 2060-61. That’s set to be combined with a declining fertility rate, projected to decline from 1.66 babies per woman in 2021–22 to 1.62 babies by 2030–31. As a result, the median age will balloon from 38.4 years old in 2020-21 to 40.1 in 2032-33. It was 36.9 in 2008-09. The ageing population is driven by increasing life expectancies and falling fertility rates, with the wave of older Australians created by a large baby boomer generation. Image: Getty

Body

The world is about to hit eight billion people

The world is expected to have eight billion people living on it by 15 November this year, according to the United Nations. And India will become Earth’s most populated country in 2023. These are among the latest projections <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">published</a> by the UN in its World Population Prospects report, which also highlights the rapid decline in global population growth – now at its slowest rate since 1950 – continuing into the second half of the century. “The cumulative effect of lower fertility, if maintained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration of global population growth in the second half of the century,” says UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs population division director John Wilmoth. The UN predicts global population could reach a further 8.5 billion by the end of this decade, 9.7 billion by 2050, and peak at 10.4 billion by the end of the century. That’s a reduction of around 300 million people in 2100 from its estimates <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">three years ago</a>. It’s still higher than other projections in recent years, suggesting the world population might peak before the end of the century. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930677-2" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Research</a> from the University of Washington, US, published in 2020 predicted that the world population would peak at about 9.73 billion in 2064, observing that increases in female education and access to contraception would see declines in fertility and population growth. That followed a 2018 <a href="https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15226/1/lutz_et_al_2018_demographic_and_human_capital.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a> from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre that predicted a peak of 9.8 billion between 2070 and 2080, but also suggested rapid social development and education reach in line with sustainable development goals could see a peak of 8.9 billion by 2060. The reason for these different projections comes down to the assumptions researchers make along the way. At the most basic level, explains Associate Professor Gour Dasvarma, from Flinders University in Adelaide, a population projection considers trends in birth and death rates. “Projections are done by extrapolating past trends, long term trends in fertility, mortality and migration for a country population,” he explains. “For the world population, migration doesn’t matter. “One of the things with the projections is that as and when new data become available, people will revise those. “The latest predictions for the UN is that the world’s population will peak at 10.4 billion by 2100 and then it will start declining. “By that time, the trends indicate that fertility in most of the countries of the world will have declined to a sufficiently low level, the ageing of the population will take hold, and the so-called momentum of population growth will slow down.” <div class="newsletter-box"> <div id="wpcf7-f6-p197949-o1" class="wpcf7" dir="ltr" lang="en-US" role="form"> <form class="wpcf7-form mailchimp-ext-0.5.62 spai-bg-prepared init" action="/people/world-population-eight-billion/#wpcf7-f6-p197949-o1" method="post" novalidate="novalidate" data-status="init"> <input class="wpcf7-form-control wpcf7-text referer-page spai-bg-prepared" name="referer-page" type="hidden" value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/" data-value="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/" aria-invalid="false" /> </form> </div> </div> What are the world’s population trends? Nations transition through <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/society/watch-the-human-population-skyrocket-in-200-years/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" data-type="URL" data-id="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/society/watch-the-human-population-skyrocket-in-200-years/">cycles of population growth</a>, stability and decline as their economies develop. From periods of stability with high birth and death rates, populations increase as mortality drops. Over time, fertility rates begin to decline, causing stabilisation in population numbers. It’s only when death rates nudge above births that populations begin to naturally decrease. For nations like those in Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, this demographic transition was completed between the pre-industrial era and the mid-20th century – a period of about 200 years. “But after 1950, some developing countries like China, other parts of Southeast Asia […] and also Latin America have done it within 70 years because of the increase of contraceptives and faster decline in fertility,” says Dasvarma. With life expectancy projections increasing, nations in the Global South will continue to see their populations to do likewise. Although more than half of the world’s population lives in East, South-east (29% of global population), Central and Southern Asia (26%), the UN expects these regions along with Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe and Northern America to begin declining before the end of the century. In contrast, sub-Saharan African nations are likely to keep growing through 2100, while the next quarter century will see over half of the world’s population increase come from just eight nations. They include India – which will overtake China to be the world’s most populous nation next year – the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. Populations are ageing quickly Two thirds of the world’s population now live in areas where lifetime fertility has dropped below 2.1 births. Long term, that equates to zero population growth: one child to replace each parent in nations with low mortality. COVID-19 has also impacted population data – with a drop in global life expectancy (now 71, down from 72.9 before the pandemic) and short-term decreases in pregnancies and births. But the pandemic’s impact was unevenly distributed around the world. In regions hardest hit by deaths, life expectancy at birth dropped by nearly three years. In contrast Australia and New Zealand saw this indicator increase by more than a year, likely thanks to border closures imposed throughout much of 2020. These decreases in national fertility rates will see populations age further in the coming years. By the century’s midpoint, 16% of the global population is expected to be aged over 65 – the same proportion as people under 12 years of age. It’s prompted the UN to recommend nations with ageing populations invest in social safety nets to meet the needs of older people.  <img id="cosmos-post-tracker" style="opacity: 0; height: 1px!important; width: 1px!important; border: 0!important; position: absolute!important; z-index: -1!important;" src="https://syndication.cosmosmagazine.com/?id=197949&title=The+world+is+about+to+hit+eight+billion+people" width="1" height="1" />  <div id="contributors"> <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/people/world-population-eight-billion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cosmos Magazine</a> and was written by <a href="https://cosmosmagazine.com/contributor/matthew-agius" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Matthew Agius</a>. Matthew Agius is a science writer for Cosmos Magazine. Image: Getty Images </div>

Caring

Least popular Australian baby names in 2021

A new study by McCrindle Research has shown the least popular baby names in Australia for 2021. Names like Remi, Harlow, Hallie, Maeve, Adeline, Molly, Maggie, Delilah, Eliza and Isabel have entered the Top 100 girls’ list. However, other names like Riley, Alexis, Victoria, Madison, Lilly, Chelsea, Indiana and Thea have been kicked out. “Heidi was ranked 78 in 2020 and to see it drop out completely was really interesting,” Ashley Fell, social researcher of Australia’s Top Baby Names 2021 report, told <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/parenting/babies/the-15-least-popular-australian-baby-names-in-2021/news-story/385b7ddd80f2021cf849fadd80ea218c" target="_blank">news.com.au</a>. Other classic names like Heidi and Victoria have also been removed from the top 100. “Heidi has been a consistent name ranked in the 90s over the last decade but has since left in 2021. It shows Aussies are over it,” she told news.com.au. “Victoria is a bit more of a traditional royal name, but we’ve seen the next generation of royals influence Gen Y parents today (Charlotte, being the top name) and other names like George, Harry and Louis pretty popular in the boys’ list, showing the impact of the next generation of royals.” It appears that the new list of baby names are being replaced with more creative names. “Parents don’t want their child to be among 10 Heidis in a class and that’s one of the reasons we’re seeing such greater variety with new names entering the list," she explained. Boys names weren't forgotten in the research either, with Leonardo, River, Luka, Lewis and Lennox breaking into the Top 100. Unfortunately, this was at the expense of names like Tyler, Jake, Christina, Nate and Aaron. “While only five new boys’ names were added to the Top 100 list, twice as many girls’ names were added (10), and when we look at the most popular names that have emerged in the Top 100 over the last decade, there are three times as many girls’ names that have entered, than boys’ names,” she said.

Family & Pets

Aged population set to double by 2050

We regularly hear that Australia has an ageing population, and that has never been more true than right now. By 2050, the number of people aged between 65 to 84 years is expected to more than double, and those over 85 will more than quadruple!2 As a population, Australians are living longer than ever before due to advancements in medical technology and a better awareness of a healthier lifestyle. Compared to a century ago, the average lifespan has increased by around 25 years.1 Couples are also deciding to have children and retire much later in life.2 So how do these trends impact Life Insurance? Australia’s changing population trend With these segments of Australians over the age of 65 set to expand rapidly over the next 30 years, access to healthcare and supportive services is going to be in more demand, resulting in a substantial expenditure in this area. Most of these medical care costs will fall to the Federal and State Governments, however with such an exponential growth in those ageing figures, their budgets will be spread quite thin.3 This is one of the reasons why people are electing to take up Life Insurance to financially protect them and their families in the future, should something happen to them. How is this changing life insurance? People are much more vulnerable to illness and risk of death the older they become. The increasing lifespans of Australians is also affecting Life Insurance as people look for a way to protect their families for longer periods of time. This impacts Life Insurance in two main ways: <ul> <li>Life Insurance companies are more inclined to <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nobleoak.com.au/faqs/applications-underwriting/" target="_blank">ask more detailed questions</a> in the assessment stage, to ensure that you are covered specifically for the duration you require.</li> <li>With couples having children and retiring later in life, they are raising a family at much older ages. As a result, they want a way of ensuring that their dependants and beneficiaries are fully covered in case tragedy was to occur.</li> </ul> By taking out Life Insurance, you and your loved ones are covered to ensure your financial security and peace of mind. What are your Life Insurance requirements? Life Insurance can provide you with much-needed relief knowing that you and your family are in good hands, regardless of what age you may be. If you have been considering Life Insurance, it’s important to know more about the impact that certain age factors can have on your cover. To learn more about Life Insurance, <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nobleoak.com.au/faqs/life-insurance/" target="_blank">visit the NobleOak website</a> or speak to one of their specialists today on 1300 108 490. At NobleOak, Life Insurance is tailored to you, offering comprehensive cover and peace of mind so that there are no surprises at claim time. Request an instant quote today Call NobleOak’s friendly insurance specialists on 1300 108 490 or visit the dedicated <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nobleoak.com.au/oversixty" target="_blank">OverSixty members page</a> to get an instant quote online*. This is a sponsored article written in partnership with NobleOak. Sources: 1The Australian Government. Health and ageing – impact on local government. Accessed 27 October, 2017. 2<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3101.0Feature%20Article1Jun%202016/">The Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian Demographic Statistics, June 2016. Accessed 27 October, 2017.</a> 3<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats%5Cabs@.nsf/0/8668A9A0D4B0156CCA25792F0016186A?Opendocument">The Australian Bureau of Statistics. Teenage fertility rate lowest on record, Nov 2016. Accessed 27 October, 2017.</a> Information provided by NobleOak Life Limited ABN 85 087 648 708 (AFS Licence 247302) which is the product issuer. This is general advice only and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Always read the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.nobleoak.com.au/" target="_blank">www.nobleoak.com.au</a>, for information on what cover is included and what exclusions might apply to any policy you’re considering. People who seek to replace an existing Life Insurance policy should consider their circumstances, including continuing the existing cover until the replacement policy is issued and cover confirmed. *Terms and Conditions apply. Visit <a href="https://www.nobleoak.com.au/oversixty">www.nobleoak.com.au/oversixty</a>

Retirement Life

Is slowing Australia’s population growth really the best way out of this crisis?

After weeks of pressuring the government to do more to support temporary migrants who fall outside the criteria for government support, the opposition took a surprising stance in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q.html">The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald</a> on Sunday. Labor immigration spokesperson Kristina Keneally called for a rethink of our migration program and asked: when we restart our migration program, do we want migrants to return to Australia in the same numbers and in the same composition as before the crisis? She said Australia’s answer should be “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q.html">no</a>”. To me, as an economist, the answer should be a resounding “yes”. Keneally’s piece covered a lot of ground – in addition to making claims about whether or not permanent migrants take the jobs of local workers (<a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf">they don’t</a>) she broached the topic of reconsidering our temporary migration intake and held open the possibility of further lowering our permanent intake. Migration is a complex often convoluted area of policy Temporary migrants can’t just turn up Ms Keneally’s comments imply that coming to Australia as a temporary migrant is easy. As the following (rather long) flowchart indicates, it is anything but. Temporary migration is uncapped: there are no in-principle limits on the number of temporary migrants who can come here. This is by design, so the program can meet the skill needs of our economy at any given time. However, the government has a number of tools it uses to contain the program and target the right skills. Keneally makes the point that the arrival of migrants has made it easier for businesses to ignore local talent. But there are requirements that Australian businesses to tap into the Australian labour market before hiring from overseas. She is right when she says unions and employers and the government should come together to identify looming skill shortages and deliver training and reskilling opportunities to Australian workers so they can fill Australian jobs. But no matter how good our foresight and our education and training systems, we will always have needs for external expertise in areas of emerging importance. Training local workers for projects that suddenly become important can take years, during which those projects would stall. Permanent migrants don’t take Australian’s jobs Keneally says Australia’s migration program has “hurt many Australian workers, contributing to unemployment, underemployment and low wage growth”. Australian research finds this to be untrue. Research I conducted for the <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf">Committee for the Economic Development of Australia</a> updating research coducted by Robert Breunig, Nathan Deutscher and Hang Thi To for the <a href="https://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/assets/documents/hilda-bibliography/working-discussion-research-papers/2015/migrant-intake-draft-supplementc-1.pdf">Productivity Commission</a> found that the impact of recent migrants (post 1996) on the employment prospects of Australian-born workers was <a href="https://crawford.anu.edu.au/files/uploads/crawford01_cap_anu_edu_au/2018-05/policy_note_-_immigration.pdf">close to zero</a>. If anything, the impact on wages and labour force participation of locals was <a href="https://www.ceda.com.au/CEDA/media/General/Publication/PDFs/TemporaryMigrationAppendix.pdf">positive</a>. Flexibility gives us an edge Australia’s migration program is the envy of other countries. Indeed, its success has prompted Britain to consider changing its system to an Australian skills-based system <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-future-skills-based-immigration-system">assessed through points</a>. Temporary migration is certain to look very different over the next few years than it has over past few. That’s its purpose – to adapt to changing circumstances. It is difficult to see how a sustained cut in temporary arrivals could assist our recovery. The bridge to the other side of this downturn will depend on migration. It will depend on us continuing to welcome migrants. Written by Gabriela D’Souza. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-slowing-australias-population-growth-really-the-best-way-out-of-this-crisis-137779">The Conversation.</a>

Legal

Public health expert warns coronavirus “could infect 60 per cent of world’s population”

A leading public health expert who spearheaded the fight against SARS has issued a warning, saying that close to 60 per cent of the world’s population could become infected by the coronavirus. Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, is an expert on coronavirus epidemics and played a key role during the SARS outbreak in 2002 and 2003. Sitting down with 60 Minutes on Sunday, he said that COVID-19 is “certainly more infective (than SARS), and it’s also very difficult to try to control it”. “The big unknown now is really how big is the iceberg,” he said. There have now been over 106,000 confirmed cases around the world and close to 3,600 deaths since the outbreak began in December, with a mortality rate of around 3.4 per cent. “I don’t know, but I’m suspecting that (there are many more people infected),” he said. “Everybody is susceptible. If you assume that everybody randomly mix with each other, then eventually you will see 40, 50, 60 per cent of the population get infected.” At current mortality rates for COVID-19, that could mean between 45 and 60 million deaths worldwide – in the first wave alone. “We have to prepare for that possibility that there is a second wave,” he said. In Australia, a third person died due to the virus in a hospital overnight, with authorities reporting the total number of cases sitting at 79 as of Sunday evening. Professor Leung said it was likely there were many more undetected cases. “For every death you would expect to see 80 to 100 cases,” he said. “So if you start seeing deaths first before you start picking up large numbers of cases the only conclusion that one can reasonably and scientifically draw is that you hadn’t been testing nearly early enough or extensively enough. Unless you go and test, you’re not going to find.” He said it didn’t appear that any country had been “completely successful at 100 per cent containment and driving back into the wild”. “There is now an emergency going on and what we must do is very rigorous infection control,” he said. “Now is the time to really pull out all the stops, put everything you got into it to fight it. We have to give it the whole-of-government approach. Give it all you got, throw everything at it quick and early and hard. That will buy you sufficient time and if you’re extremely lucky, you might even be able to contain it.”

Body

New technology can help understand the decline in Australian sea lions

Australian sea lions are in trouble. Their population has never recovered from the impact of the commercial sealing that occurred mainly in the 19th century. Currently, the Australian sea lion is a threatened species (listed as <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/14549/4443172">endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature or IUCN)</a> with the population estimated at 10,000 – 12,000. More than 80% of these animals live in the coastal waters of South Australia, where their numbers are estimated to have fallen by more than half over the past 40 years. The sea lions’ survival is threatened by many factors, including bycatch in commercial fisheries, entanglement in marine debris and impacts related to climate change. With time running out, the sea lions’ survival depends on informed management. One important step is to establish a low-risk way of quickly assessing the health of the current population. The results could help us identify how to stop the population declining. Technological insight One common way to get a quick idea of an animal’s health is to assess its body using a measure equivalent to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_mass_index">body mass index</a> (BMI) for humans, which is calculated from a person’s mass divided by the square of their height. But using a tape measure and scales to obtain the size and mass of Australian sea lions is time consuming, costly and involves risky anaesthesia of endangered animals. With our colleagues Dirk Holman and <a href="http://www.antarctica.gov.au/science/meet-our-scientists/dr-aleks-terauds">Aleks Terauds</a>, we recently developed a technique to non-invasively estimate the body condition of Australian sea lions by using a drone to collect high-resolution photos of sedated sea lions. We then used the photos to digitally reconstruct a 3D model of each animal to estimate its length, width and overall volume – and compared these to physical measurements. The technique, recently published in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108402">Biological Conservation</a>, worked better than expected. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303405/original/file-20191125-74599-16xcgmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> Drone-captured photographs were processed to create 2D mosaics of images and 3D models. These were used to measure area and volume, both of which approximated animal mass. J. Hodgson The measurements were accurate, and we found a strong correlation between the mass of an individual and the area and volume measurements derived from the drone pictures. These are the key ingredients needed to assess sea lion condition without handling animals. Conserving an iconic species While simple body condition measurements have limitations, they are useful for conservation because they provide rapid health insights across a species’ range. Australian sea lions breed at around 80 known sites spanning more than 3,000 km of southern Australian coastline within the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-other-reef-is-worth-more-than-10-billion-a-year-but-have-you-heard-of-it-45600">Great Southern Reef</a>. Our technique can be used to study free-ranging animals at colonies across this range, from Kangaroo Island in South Australia to the Houtman Abrolhos Islands in Western Australia, and test for differences in condition. <a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309600/original/file-20200113-103990-1364qeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/309600/original/file-20200113-103990-1364qeo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /></a> 3D models of animals measured in the study. J. Hodgson This can give us valuable information about how individual health and colony trends in abundance are related. For example, if a colony is in decline and its members are in poor condition, it could be that factors such as food availability and disease are driving the decline. However, if there is no difference in the condition of animals from declining and recovering colonies, then declines may be due to direct human impacts such as bycatch in commercial fisheries and entanglement in marine debris. We could then target the most likely threats identified using this technique to better understand their impact and how to protect the sea lions against them. <img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303404/original/file-20191125-74599-kf9j1s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" alt="" /> These two adult male Australian sea lions differed by just 11 cm in length but more than 130 kg in mass. J. Hodgson This technique could be used to complete a population-wide survey of Australian sea lion condition and help ensure the species’ survival. It would build on past mitigation measures which include successfully <a href="https://www.afma.gov.au/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/03/Australian-Sea-Lion-Management-Strategy-2015-v2.0-FINAL.pdf">reducing by-catch from gillnet fishing along the sea floor</a>. It will also complement current initiatives, including a trial to <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1007/s00436-015-4481-4">control a parasite</a> that may improve <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2019/07/22/saving-our-sea-lions.html">pup survival</a>. Australian sea lions are an icon of Australia’s Great Southern Reef. As an important top-order predator in these coastal waters, they are indicators of ocean health. Understanding and mitigating the causes of their decline will not only help the species recover, but it will also help to ensure the unique coastal ecosystems on which Australian sea lions depend remain intact and functional.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127523/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jarrod-hodgson-247691">Jarrod Hodgson</a>, PhD Candidate, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-adelaide-1119">University of Adelaide</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/lian-pin-koh-247692">Lian Pin Koh</a>, Professor, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-adelaide-1119">University of Adelaide</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simon-goldsworthy-939775">Simon Goldsworthy</a>, Principal Scientist, Ecosystem Effects of Fishing & Aquaculture, South Australian Research and Development Institute, and Affiliate Professor, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-adelaide-1119">University of Adelaide</a> This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-sea-lions-are-declining-using-drones-to-check-their-health-can-help-us-understand-why-127523">original article</a>.

Family & Pets

Older Australians must work longer, says Treasurer Josh Frydenberg

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will signal a push to keep older Australians in work longer to help improve the national economy. Frydenberg will use a speech to the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia on Tuesday evening to argue that a “new dynamic” is needed to deal with the country’s ageing population. According to the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-dynamic-frydenberg-says-over-60s-need-to-retrain-to-boost-economy-20191118-p53brb.html">Sydney Morning Herald</a>, Frydenberg will say that a “range of policy responses” is required to address the “economic time bomb”, including training to keep Australians aged 65 and older in the jobs market. Frydenberg will say working Australians currently undertake 80 per cent of their training before they turn 21. “This will have to change if we want to continue to see more Australians stay engaged in work for longer,” he will say. Since the government’s first intergenerational report was released in 2002, the number of people aged 65 or older has increased from 13 per cent of the population to more than 16 per cent. “Our median age, now thirty-seven, has increased by two years since then and life expectancy has gone to 81 for males and 85 for females,” Frydenberg will say. “As more Australians live longer, the number of working age Australians for every person aged over 65 diminishes, whereas in 1974-75 it was 7.4 to one and 40 years later in 2014-15, it was 4.5 to one.” “It’s estimated over the next four decades to fall to just 2.7 to one.” Frydenberg is also expected to declare migration as part of the government’s strategy to reduce the economic impacts of Australia’s ageing population. In an opinion piece published in the Australian Financial Review on Tuesday, Frydenberg wrote, “When it comes to population, our migration program has served us well … With the median age of migrants being 20 to 25, or 10 years less than that of the broader population, immigration has helped to soften the economic impacts of an ageing population.” Labor frontbencher Jason Clare says the Morrison government “have got form” on making people work for longer. “They’ve cut the pension or they’ve frozen superannuation before. There are no new ideas here,” Clare told <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/11/19/josh-frydenberg-wants-australians-to-work-for-longer/">Sky News</a>. “It’s just Frydenberg digging up the old ideas of getting people to work longer.” National Seniors Australia chief advocate Ian Henschke said the treasurer’s “time bomb” analogy was “stigmatising”. “Rather than stigmatise older Australians, we should blame previous treasurers from 1980 who have stood by and watched this happen,” Henschke said. “Let’s deal with the facts, for example, that older Australians are wanting to work more and longer but they are not getting the work they need. “When they do retrain, we know they are experiencing discrimination.”

News

The sad reason Australia's dwindling koala population is under threat

The NSW Government has revealed its 'road kill' numbers are increasing per year despite having special tunnels, bridges and fencing in place to avoid coming into contact with wildlife. One of the many incidents where an innocent koala was killed, took place was in 2017 and it was recorded on video. The heartbreaking footage shows a young koala trapped inside St Helena tunnel, near Byron Bay in NSW, as it attempts to crawl to safety but sadly does not make it in time. The driver, who refused to follow tunnel operators’ instructions as they attempted to save the koala’s life, merges into the closed lane, giving the poor koala no chance. The video, which is one of many in the ‘road kill’ files belonging to the State Government, was obtained under freedom of information laws from NSW Roads and Maritime Services (RMS). The files, which highlight where koalas are being killed around NSW, includes five years of incident reports from the Pacific Highway, where 68 koalas have been killed to date. With dozens of koalas being killed every year, their population is lessening on the NSW north coast, and they are being classified as ‘locally endangered’. The video shows the event that happened after an RMS tunnel operator saw “something flapping” on a surveillance camera. The operator realised the object was an injured koala after zooming in to the footage. The report states that around 3:00am: “The tunnel operators turned the UHF radio on Channel 29 and questioned why the truck driver had disobeyed traffic directions and ran over the animal. [The] truck driver brushed it off stating there is no need to rescue the animal now.” The tunnel was then shut down for incoming traffic as rescue volunteers attempted to recover the koala's body. According to the <a rel="noopener" href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-13/nsw-government-road-kill-files-reveal-states-koala-plight/10088916" target="_blank">ABC</a>, no charges were made against the truck driver for failing to listen to instructions or for killing the koala. Have you ever hit a wild animal by accident whilst driving? Share your story with us in the comments below.

News

New record: Australia’s population to hit 25 million

According to projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s population will hit 25 million tonight. The ABS predicts that the new population record will be set at 11 pm tonight, as Australia’s population increases by one person every 83 seconds. While it is impossible to know for certain who the 25 millionth person will be, political commentator and author George Megalogenis said it would most likely be a young, female Chinese student or skilled worker. "The two biggest migrant groups in Australia are Chinese and Indians since the turn of the 21st century," he told The World program. "So we're getting an extraordinary number of Chinese and Indians from two countries that are actually rising. “Since about 2005, we're receiving more people from overseas than have been added to our population through natural increase, so more migrants than babies.” Net overseas migration, the number of arrivals minus departures, currently makes up 62 per cent of Australia’s growth, while natural increases accounts for 38 per cent. "Last time that happened was in the gold rushes of the 1850s," Megalogenis said. Recent United Nations estimates ranked Australia as the world’s 53rd most populated country, following behind North Korea. China is the world’s most populated country and has 56 times more people than Australia. The world’s second most population nation, India, is predicted to have 26.7 million babies born in this year alone.

News

Australia’s population is about to explode – but are we prepared?

If you’ve taken a peak-hour train or driven in grid-lock traffic recently, you’ll no doubt have realised just how packed our roads and public transport have become. And it’s all because of Australia’s exploding population – and it has experts on edge. In the last year alone, our population grew by 400,000 people, and this figure is only set to climb over the next decade. But are our cities prepared for such an influx? According to last night’s Four Corners report, the answer is no. “What we’re facing now is a change in the face of our cities,” Philip Davies, CEO of Infrastructure Australia said. “Cities such as Melbourne and Sydney are becoming of the scale of global cities like London and Hong Kong. And then some of our slightly smaller capital cities, Perth and Brisbane becoming, in the future, the same size as Melbourne and Sydney. “So we need to up our game in terms of planning.” Sydney’s population is set to hit the 8 million mark by 2050, Perth will grow from 2 to 4.5 million, while Brisbane will rise to 4 million from 2.4 million. Former NSW Premier Bob Carr told the program he fears population control methods such as limiting access to beaches and green space would create a “dystopia”. “When you contemplate the eastern suburbs of Sydney, access to the beaches, which is a natural space, recreational space, what do you do?” Carr said. “Do you have fences and turnstiles? When the population around Bondi, for example, reaches the sort of intensified level that means the roads are choked most days in summer, do you start to ration access to the coastal walking trails along the coast? “And down the national park? Fences, turnstiles, online ticketing. I mean, that’s the sort of dystopia that we can see coming at us through the mist.” Marg Prendergast, co-ordinator general at Transport for NSW, told Four Corners that Australians would need to overcome their reliance on cars unless we want our roads to be crippled under the pressure of too many vehicles. “We’re doing everything we can to put public transport as a real option, because single car drivers are just not going to fit on the road in years to come,” she said. “We can’t build ourselves out of this growth. We actually need to manage demand better. We want people to travel earlier, to travel a bit later.” Factors like immigration and an ageing population are also fuelling the boom, and as a result, we may find the Australian way of life changed forever. Aussie businessman Dick Smith fears the Australian Dream may soon be over, thanks to infrastructure failing to keep up with demand. “Just near here, I used to go through here as a young boy, and there were lots of houses,” Smith told the program. “They are just around the corner there, they are gradually being knocked down. “But that’s where an Aussie family could live the Aussie dream, they could buy a house. You can’t do that anymore. You’re jammed like a termite in a high rise, or I say battery chooks.” What do you think about the rising population of Australia and how our major cities are going to cope? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below.

Retirement Life

What the future will look like in 30 years

<div class="replay"> <div class="reply_body body linkify"> <div class="reply_body"> <div class="body_text "> In 1960, the world’s population stood at 3 billion. Less than 15 years later, it hit 4 billion. Now, in just 40 years, the population has almost doubled to 7.5 billion. With so many people, and so many people living longer and longer, we’re tipped to reach 9.8 billion by 2050 (22 per cent of whom will be over the age of 60) – that’s just 32 years away. It will be the first time in history that older people will outnumber the youth. The scary statistics have just been released in IKEA’s new sustainability report, People and Planet Positive 2017, and they’re highlighting a dire need for cities to adapt to rapid population growth soon or risk collapsing. In order to survive, the report claims Australia will need to build more cities as the population spreads from our capitals out to regional areas – and soon. “To put it into perspective, that’s around six new cities for six million people every month,” Simon Caspersen from future-living innovation lab SPACE10 tells <a href="http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/new-report-predicts-how-our-lives-will-change-in-2050/news-story/dccfb5c316abcddb09c33fa22b5fe5a8" target="_blank">news.com.au</a>. “With urbanisation accelerating, there will be increasing pressure on natural resources like water, air, energy and food. This means the building environment needs to incorporate elements like spaces to grow food, systems to recycle waste and water, natural cooling and heating mechanisms, and design that facilitates all of this.” According to IKEA sustainability manager Kate Ringvall, it’s likely that as the population booms, the trend will be towards co-housing and a shared economy, where we’ll learn to do more with less space, surrounded by more people. “The rise of the so-called sharing economy, coupled with the planet’s rapidly depleting resources and fast-growing population, is forcing us to rethink the concept of ownership and sharing in our everyday lives, including in housing,” added SPACE10’s Xuan Teo. “In the future we may have to get used to living with other people — but what opportunities might cohabitation offer us? And what is it about shared living that could persuade us to give up our privacy and redefine what we mean by home?” The report also found that, in order to cope with the demand for food, it’s likely that most of us will end up growing our own. “From bins with built-in recycling sections, to mini greenhouses to help people grow their own herbs and vegetables at home – our goal is to facilitate an eco-friendly lifestyle,” Ringvall explained. Can you imagine what 2050 might look like? Share your thoughts with us in the comments below. </div> </div> </div> </div>

Retirement Life

New law in China says adult children “must visit parents”

A new law has been introduced in China which requires adult children to visit and care for their ageing parents. The “Protection of the Rights and Interests of the Elderly People” bill states children must care for their parents’ spiritual needs as well as their physical needs as they grow older. If they don’t, their credit scores could be lowered. While filial devotion is a deeply entrenched part of Chinese culture, the transformation of the nation in the past three decades has seen the younger generation leave their homes to find work in the cities. With nobody to take care of elderly parents, aged care and retirement homes a rarity in the country, and no such thing as a pension, the policy aims to combat the isolation and loneliness of an ageing population. The new law, which has been criticised for being vague, says children who do not live with their parents must visit or at least “greet them frequently”. If adult children shirk their responsibilities, parents can apply for mediation or bring a case against their children in court. Professor Lu Jiehua from Peking University said the law isn’t about taking children to court but meant as a reminder for busy adults to remember to call home. "As an old saying goes, law makes morality visible," Professor Lu said. "It's more important to make people more aware of their moral responsibility towards their parents than simply make it legally compulsory for them to provide support and regular visits." China’s over-65 population stands at 110 million today, with it expected to grow to 330 million by 2050. Related links: <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/lifestyle/family-pets/2015/12/life-lessons-from-grandparents/">Top 10 life lessons kids learn from grandparents</a> <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/lifestyle/family-pets/2016/01/5-types-of-grandparents/">There are 5 different types of grandparents – which one are you?</a> <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/lifestyle/family-pets/2016/01/parents-and-kids-who-look-identical/">10 pics of parents and kids who look identical</a>

News

Are products keeping up to date with the ageing population?

Older Kiwis are all too often left out of the loop when it comes to new technology. Which is a real shame, and the market is forgetting that older people provide a wealth of opportunity if only they were willing to make things simpler. We take a look at the pressing need for manufacturers to design, produce and market their product in a manner that is inclusive of all New Zealanders, not just the younger ones. When asked by Choice about the design schemes of common interfaces, Associate Professor of Industrial Design Thea Blackler, from Australia's QUT, said, “We have found that the performance of older people with various interfaces is also affected by decline in central executive function. “This means that older people are struggling with two factors that make interface use more difficult – not only are they less familiar with contemporary interfaces, they also are less able to process information in working memory whilst using them.” In a paper released by the Queensland University of Technology, Ms Blackler’s research backed up this statement, especially when you consider the important role seniors play in the modern marketplace. The research found that older people are considerably less familiar with contemporary interfaces when compared to younger people, which suggests that by making these products simpler there could be a range of advantages companies could be achieving access to. The research notes that, “Designers need to adequately understand the familiarity of all target users with potential interfaces... More tools that can assist designers and researchers in discovering familiarity and applying it to interfaces are under development. These need to be more extensively tested in industry before they can be released.” Modern companies must take into account the fact that seniors will be becoming increasingly engage with their products and that by not providing seniors with easy to use accessible interfaces they are missing a tremendous marking, product branding and sales opportunity. Related links: <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/legal/2016/02/alternatives-to-legal-action/">4 alternatives to legal action</a> <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/legal/2016/01/10-celebrities-who-cut-their-kids-out-of-inheritances/">10 celebrities who cut their kids out of massive inheritances to give to charity</a> <a href="http://www.oversixty.co.nz/finance/legal/2016/02/10-of-our-favourite-law-based-tv-shows/">10 of our favourite law-based TV shows</a>

Retirement Income

Australian population hits 24 million

Australia’s population has reached 24 million people. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192af2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument" target="_blank">online population calculator</a> suggest Australia hit the mark at around 12:51am AEDT. That being said, there is no “official” 24 millionth Australian. The ABS’s population clock is based on estimated resident population at 30 June 2015 and assumes growth based on – <ul> <li>A birth every one minute and 44 seconds.</li> <li>A death every three minutes and 24 seconds.</li> <li>A net gain of one international migrant ever two minutes and 39 seconds.</li> </ul> As a result, the ABS estimates Australia’s population is growing at a rate of: <ul> <li>One person every one minute and 31 seconds.</li> </ul> ABS demographer Andrew Howe told Mashable Australia’s 1.4 per cent population increase was “relatively high” for the country, but not as high as in recent years. “Compared to Australia's population growth six or seven years ago, it's actually dropped off by a bit. Around 2009 and 2010, we were seeing growth rates of around two percent.” Australia is expected to raise to 25 million in 2019 and 30 million by 2030. Image credit: Kevin Hellon / Shutterstock Related links: <a href="/news/news/2016/02/fence-lets-dogs-people-watch/">This fence lets dogs people watch</a> <a href="/news/news/2016/02/how-to-find-birthday-word/">The word that was invented the year of your birth</a> <a href="/news/news/2016/02/homemade-drain-cleaning-solution/">Homemade drain-cleaning solution to unclog sinks quickly</a>

News

More than 95% of the world’s population has health problems

Over 95 per cent of the world's population is sick, according to the data from the 2013 Global Burden of Disease Study. Alarmingly, more than a third of those people had more than five illnesses – including Australians. For Aussies, lower back pain and depression were the top two major health concerns, in terms of their impact on people. The study examined chronic and acute disease and injury over 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. A tool known as <a href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/metrics_daly/en/" target="_blank">Years Lived with Disability (YLD)</a> was used to measure the impact of health problems in terms of pain or impairment of mobility, hearing or vision. The rates of disability were found to be rising as life expectancy increases and people experience more illness. As an example, the incidence of diabetes worldwide has increased 43 per cent over the past 23 years while death rates from the disease have only increased 9 per cent. For Australians specifically the leading causes of YLDs are: <ol> <li>Low back pain</li> <li>Major depressive disorder</li> <li>Other musculoskeletal disorders</li> <li>Neck pain</li> <li>Migraine</li> <li>Anxiety disorders</li> <li>Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)</li> <li>Asthma</li> <li>Age-related and other hearing loss</li> <li>Diabetes mellitus</li> </ol> Some other facts from the study include: <ul> <li>Between 1990 and 2013 diabetes YLDs in Australia increased by 212 per cent for women and 198 per cent for men.</li> <li>For women in both 1990 and 2013, the leading cause of YLD was a major depressive disorder. For men it was lower back pain. These two health concerns were among the top 10 for every country in the study.</li> <li>From 1990 to 2013 there was a 52 per cent increase in the number of people in the study who suffered from 10 or more ailments</li> <li>81 per cent of the participants with more than 5 ailments were under 65 years of age.</li> </ul> For the government this research gives insights into the future needs of an ageing population that is most likely going to be living longer with more health issues. "The health of Australians is increasingly threatened by non-fatal ailments like back and neck pains, and mental health disorders like depression and anxiety," says co-author of the study, Professor Louise Degenhardt from the University of NSW. "At the same time, deadly disease like chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes are also costing Australians many years of healthy life. "It is critical that we understand which diseases and injuries are causing disability so that we can effectively allocate resources." Related links: <a href="/news/news/2015/07/study-of-happiness-in-australia/">Living in small towns is the key to happiness, finds Australian study</a> <a href="/news/news/2015/07/remote-cave-photos/">In photos: breathtaking shots of the world’s most remote caves</a> <a href="/news/news/2015/07/blood-test-for-breast-cancer/">New blood test can predict breast cancer five years before it develops</a>

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Researchers say a spike in number of shark attack fatalities could be related to human population increase

Researchers say a recent spike in shark attacks in Australia could be down to a population increase and therefore there are more of us, more frequently heading to the beach.Earlier this week a 41-year-old surfer died off Ballina in New South Wales. It was the fifth shark attack fatality in Australia in 12 months, with three of those in NSW. Dr Daniel Bucher, senior lecturer in marine biology and fisheries at Southern Cross University, said trends indicated an overall decline in shark numbers.“In 1990, there was 17 million of us, now there’s about 23 million,” he said. “So there are more of us, in general, and a greater proportion are actually going in the water.” The warmer water along the northern coast of NSW has also been blamed for the recent shark activity in the area. However, Mr Bucher said it was hard to predict if a warm water pattern would continue due to constant changes in winds, rainfall and ocean currents. “Because it’s so variable, and there are so many local factors at play it would be hard to tease out what the long-term trend is for the east coast (to be) warmer,” he said. “It might mean that we see tropical species more often. “Tiger sharks for instance, they're the ones we see more often this time of year, whereas the great whites tend to come up during the winter.”Mr Bucher has also warned that people had to be cautious about assumptions on shark numbers without data.“A couple of years ago there was a headline that helicopters off Sydney had seen more sharks this year than last year,” he said.“Somewhere down the bottom (of the news story) they quoted their flying hours, they'd flown for that many more hours the second year.“If you divided the number of sharks by the number of flying hours they'd actually seen less sharks per hour of flying time.”Related links:<a href="/news/news/2015/02/australia-oldest-man-knits-for-penguins/" target="_blank">Australia’s oldest man knits mini-sweaters for injured penguins</a><a href="/news/news/2015/02/woman-has-not-smiled-in-40-years/" target="_blank">This woman hasn’t smiled for 40 years to prevent wrinkles</a><a href="/news/news/2015/02/new-stroke-research/" target="_blank">Doctors pioneer new stroke treatment with amazing results</a>

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