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At long last, Australia has a bioenergy roadmap – and its findings are startling

<p>Using organic waste to make energy – think sewage, animal and crop residues, and leftover wood – has finally been put under the spotlight with last week’s release of Australia’s first <a href="https://arena.gov.au/assets/2021/11/australia-bioenergy-roadmap-report.pdf">Bioenergy Roadmap</a>.</p> <p><a href="https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/bioenergy/">Bioenergy</a> is a versatile form of renewable energy which produces heat, electricity, transport fuels, chemicals, and by-products like organic fertiliser. It’s a promising way to bring Australia’s emissions down, while re-purposing waste that would otherwise go to landfill.</p> <p>The roadmap predicts that by the 2030s, the sector could boost Australia’s annual GDP by around A$10 billion, create 26,200 jobs, reduce emissions by about 9%, divert an extra 6% of waste from landfill, and enhance fuel security.</p> <p>Still, bioenergy is complex and poorly understood. We were part of the roadmap review reference group, and believe it has a bright future, as the key to successful bioenergy projects is to match the right fuel source with the right technology.</p> <h2>Bioenergy state of play in Australia</h2> <p>Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor commissioned the Australian Renewable Energy Agency to <a href="https://arena.gov.au/news/arena-to-develop-roadmap-to-boost-bioenergy-opportunities-in-australia/">develop the roadmap</a> and, on Friday, announced $33.5 million in funding to implement it. This is on top of <a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/?project-value-start=0&amp;project-value-end=200000000&amp;technology=bioenergy">more than $118 million</a> already provided by the federal government to help fund bioenergy projects.</p> <p>This funding has been a long time coming, as the sector has <a href="https://theconversation.com/bioenergy-australias-forgotten-renewable-energy-source-so-far-28277">struggled to get the same attention</a> from policymakers as other forms of renewable energy such as solar, wind and hydro.</p> <p>In 2020, bioenergy represented only <a href="https://assets.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/documents/resources/reports/clean-energy-australia/clean-energy-australia-report-2021.pdf">5% of Australia’s</a> renewable electricity <em>generation</em>, putting Australia at the <a href="https://cdn.revolutionise.com.au/news/vabsvwo5pa8jnsgs.pdf">bottom quartile of OECD countries</a> when it comes to bioenergy as a share of total energy supply. And yet, bioenergy is responsible for nearly <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian%20Energy%20Statistics%202021%20Energy%20Update%20Report.pdf">50% of Australia’s current renewable energy</a> <em>consumption</em>.</p> <p>But the sector has started gaining traction. <a href="https://cdn.revolutionise.com.au/news/vabsvwo5pa8jnsgs.pdf">In 2018, Australia had 222</a> operating bioenergy plants and an additional 55 projects under construction or at the feasibility stage.</p> <p><a href="https://arena.gov.au/projects/logan-city-biosolids-gasification-project">One example</a> is a new project in Logan City Council in Queensland. Each year, Logan City produces 34,000 tonnes of biosolids (treated sewage sludge).</p> <p>A technology called gasification is significantly reducing the need to dispose of these biosolids, and will save about $500,000 in operating costs. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353208070_An_investigation_into_the_mobility_of_heavy_metals_in_soils_amended_with_biosolids-derived_biochar">Research is also underway</a> to see how the by-product of this treatment can be sold as a soil conditioner for agriculture.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432973/original/file-20211121-21-1v5o50t.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432973/original/file-20211121-21-1v5o50t.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">Gasifier developer Pyrocal is a project partner of the Logan City Biosolids Project.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pyrocal</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p> <h2>So why is it good for the environment?</h2> <p>Using biomass as an energy source instead of fossil fuels can reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality. Bioenergy can be emissions-neutral, especially when wastes are used as a fuel source. This is because:</p> <ul> <li> <p>it captures methane when organic waste breaks down. This methane would otherwise have been released to the atmosphere</p> </li> <li> <p>it’s used in place of fossil fuels, displacing those CO₂ emissions.</p> </li> </ul> <p>For example, <a href="https://theconversation.com/not-just-hot-air-turning-sydneys-wastewater-into-green-gas-could-be-a-climate-boon-150672">the recent biomethane trial</a> at Sydney Waters Malabar plant captures methane from sewage sludge, to replace fossil natural gas in the gas network.</p> <p>What’s more, a strong bioenergy industry can help support Australian farmers looking for the benefits of running a carbon-neutral operation, and boost economic growth in regional areas.</p> <p>Bioenergy can also have <a href="https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/BIOENERGY-AND-SUSTAINABLE-DEVELOPMENT-final-20170215.pdf">negative impacts</a> if not developed properly. As we’ve seen in international projects, the biggest concern is inappropriate changes to land use to supply biomass. This could, for example, lead to greater deforestation in order to supply wood.</p> <p>However, bioenergy technologies are neither good nor bad per se. Avoiding unintended risks depends on appropriate governance. A good example is the <a href="https://www.iscc-system.org/">International Sustainability and Carbon Certification Scheme</a>, which aims to ensure bioenergy companies are transparent and uphold ethical values.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433055/original/file-20211122-19-1vnrzxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433055/original/file-20211122-19-1vnrzxj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">Avoiding risks in bioenergy depends on good governance.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></p> <p>Critics have recently <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/19/a-farce-experts-dismiss-government-claims-a-controversial-and-unproven-technology-will-cut-emissions-by-15">voiced their concern</a> about the federal government’s claim that bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, also known as BECCS, will cut emissions by 15% by 2050.</p> <p><a href="https://www.iea.org/articles/unlocking-the-potential-of-bioenergy-with-carbon-capture-and-utilisation-or-storage-beccus">The International Energy Agency</a> has identified BECCS as a technology with the potential to be truly carbon negative, which means it can remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere while producing energy for consumption.</p> <p>But the Bioenergy Roadmap did not focus on BECCS. Instead, it gave an expansive overview of all bioenergy technologies in the short to medium term, outlining where bioenergy can complement other low emissions technologies, and create opportunities for industry and governments to drive commercial growth.</p> <h2>A snapshot of the roadmap</h2> <p>The roadmap was developed following extensive <a href="https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-innovation/bioenergy-roadmap/#make-a-submission">consultation</a> with industry, researchers and the public. It identified major opportunities for Australia in four key areas.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433052/original/file-20211122-13-1e1fz24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/433052/original/file-20211122-13-1e1fz24.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">It’s notoriously hard to reduce emissions from aviation. Biofuel could offer a solution.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ashim d Silva/Unsplash</span>, <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" class="license">CC BY</a></span></p> <p>First, in hard-to-abate sectors. This includes generating renewable heat for the manufacturing industry, fuel for sustainable aviation, and renewable gas (biomethane) to displace fossil natural gas in the grid. For example, sustainable aviation biofuels are the only low-emissions alternatives to traditional, high-emitting jet fuel, that are available in the short to medium term.</p> <p>Second, to complement other markets. In road transport, for example, biofuels can offer other low-emissions alternatives such as hydrogen and electric vehicles, and, in particular, can replace diesel in long-haul transport. In the grid, bioelectricity generation can support greater penetration of renewable energy such as solar and wind.</p> <p>Third, in developing our understanding of our vast bioenergy resources across agriculture, forestry, and organic waste. We need further research and innovation to turn Australia’s theoretical bioenergy resource potential – which is massive in every state – into a reality.</p> <p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432974/original/file-20211121-13-1gmnguh.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432974/original/file-20211121-13-1gmnguh.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="" /></a> <span class="caption">Breakdown of Australia’s theoretical resource potential in petajoules per annum (PJ)</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bioenergy Roadmap/ARENA</span></span></p> <p>And finally, increasing collaboration between industry, state and federal governments. For example, developing industry guidelines and standards can help produce reliable results. This in turn helps commercialise mature technologies that are new to Australia. <!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172235/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bernadette-mccabe-147872">Bernadette McCabe</a>, Professor and Principal Scientist, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-southern-queensland-1069">University of Southern Queensland</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ian-ohara-4088">Ian O'Hara</a>, Professor, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/queensland-university-of-technology-847">Queensland University of Technology</a></em></span></p> <p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/at-long-last-australia-has-a-bioenergy-roadmap-and-its-findings-are-startling-172235">original article</a>.</p> <p><em>Image: Shuttershock</em></p>

Domestic Travel

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"Major relief": Dom outlines massive changes to NSW roadmap

<p>Just days after being appointed as NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet has made major changes to the state's roadmap to freedom after over 100 days in lockdown. </p> <p>The big changes include an increase in the number of people allowed to gather together outside and a doubling in the household visitor cap, as NSW prepared for "freedom day" on Monday. </p> <p>Many NSW school children will be able to return to the classroom earlier than expected, as face-to-face learning will resume on October 25th. </p> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Students in Kindergarten, Year 1 and Year 12 students will still return on October 18th, as students in year 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9 and 10 will return a week earlier than expected, joining years 2, 6 and 11 on October 25th.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>"That's great for kids. It's a major relief for parents and their sanity and I think this is an important decision today and I want to thank all the teachers who are are there getting vaccinated to ensure that we can open our schools as safely as possible," Mr Perrottet said.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Restrictions for gatherings will also be more relaxed than Gladys Berejiklian's plans, with up to 10 visitors, not counting children 12 and under, will be allowed to a in homes, instead of five.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>The cap on outdoor gathering has been raised from 20 to 30 people, while funerals and weddings are able to have 100 guests rather than 50.</p> </div> <p>Indoor swimming pools were originality remaining closed until December 1st, but will now be open for <span>swimming lessons, squad training, lap swimming, and rehab activities.</span></p> </div> <div class="block-content"> <p>Deputy Premier Stuart Ayres has announced workers in regional areas can return to their job from Monday if they have had at least one vaccine dose.</p> </div> <div class="block-content">"They'll be given a grace period until November 1 to receive their second," he said.<br /><span></span></div> <div class="block-content"> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>"This has been done because in some areas it was difficult to be able to get vaccines."</p> </div> </div> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>This will include regional areas outside the Blue Mountains, Central Coast, Shellharbour and Wollongong.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Other changes have been made for when the state reaches the 80 percent double dose mark, which Mr Perrottet predicted would be "in a couple of weeks".</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Once this milestone is reached, people will be able to have up to 20 visitors in their home (excluding children aged 12 and under), while up to 50 people will be allowed to gather outdoors.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Masks will no longer be required in office buildings, and up to 3,000 people will be allowed to attend controlled and ticketed outdoor events.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>In addition to this, nightclubs will reopen for seated drinking only, as Mr Perrottet wished to offer some normality for young people.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>"Young people have done it pretty tough during this period of time," he said.</p> </div> </div> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>"This is, for many, the best years of their life, at 18, 19, and they haven't been go out, go clubbing and doing that.</p> </div> </div> <div class="block-content"> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>"I want to thank them. And we'll get those clubs open as quickly as possible."  </p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p>Mr Perrottet had already confirmed no extra changes will be made ahead of "freedom day" on Monday, when pubs, restaurants and shops will open, along with an easing of other restrictions.</p> </div> <div class="styles__Container-sc-1ylecsg-0 goULFa"> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>

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“You have been warned”: Gladys unveils roadmap out of lockdown

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced a roadmap for the state to follow once 70 percent of the population are double vaccinated.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fully-vaccinated residents of Greater Sydney, who have been subjected to stay-at-home orders for nearly 14 weeks, will get to enjoy freedoms which will trigger the Monday after NSW reaches its 70 percent double dose vaccination target.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Fully vaccinated adults and those with medical exemptions will have the following freedoms:</span></p> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Up to five visitors in a home (not including children under 12)</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">A maximum of 20 people gathering in outdoor settings.</span></li> </ul> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Hospitality venues can also reopen, subject to the one person per 4sqm inside and one person per 2sqm outside rules, and standing while drinking is permitted outside.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Retail stores, hairdressers, nail salons, and other personal services can also reopen with person per 4sqm, and with a cap of five clients per premises for personal services.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Gyms will be allowed to reopen under the same 4sqm rule and can offer classes for up to 20 people.</span></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr">ROADMAP TO FREEDOM UNVEILED FOR THE FULLY VACCINATED <a href="https://t.co/oHVzfM6rsC">pic.twitter.com/oHVzfM6rsC</a></p> — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) <a href="https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1435774751847305222?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 9, 2021</a></blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Restrictions for weddings, funerals and places of worship will also be eased, with up to 50 guests able to attend weddings and funerals, eating and drinking permitted while seated at these events, and places of worship allowed to reopen with one person per 4sqm and no singing.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Masks will continue to be mandatory for indoor public venues, but only hospitality staff will be required to wear them when outdoors.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Domestic travel will also be permitted, including trips to regional NSW, and caravan parks and campgrounds can open.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Employers must continue to allow employees to work from home if they are able to do so.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There will also be revised guidelines for fully-vaccinated individuals who are close or casual contacts of a COVID-19 case, which will be provided closer to the reopening date.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ms Berejiklian has also mentioned that additional freedoms will be added once the state reaches 80 percent double dose vaccinations.</span></p> <p><strong>Parts of regional NSW leaving lockdown</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Parts of regional NSW that have been deemed as low-risk or have seen zero COVID-19 cases for at least 14 days will also leave lockdown today.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The freedoms allowed for fully vaccinated individuals will be extended to all people in regional LGAs where stay-at-home orders have been lifted.</span></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr">LOCKDOWN LIFTED IN PARTS OF REGIONAL NSW <a href="https://t.co/XFCNffmNER">pic.twitter.com/XFCNffmNER</a></p> — NSW Health (@NSWHealth) <a href="https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/1435776164006555649?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 9, 2021</a></blockquote> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The areas that will stay in lockdown include:</span></p> <ul> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bathurst</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bega</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Blayney</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bogan</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Bourke</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Brewarrina</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Broken Hill</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cabonne</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Central Coast</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Central Darling</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Cessnock</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dubbo</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Dungog</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Eurobodalla</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Forbes</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Gilgandra</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Goulbourn</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mulwarre</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Kiama</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lake Macquarie</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Lithogow</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Maitland</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mid-Coast</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Mid-Western</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Muswellbrook</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Narrabri</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Narromine</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Newcastle</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Orange</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Parks</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Port Stephens</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Queanbeyan-Palerang</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Shellharbour</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Shoalhaven</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Singleton</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Snowy Monaro</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Upper Hunter</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Walgett</span></li> <li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1"><span style="font-weight: 400;">Wingecarribee</span></li> </ul> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">However, Ms Berejiklian also stated that freedoms would be restricted in areas where outbreaks occur and that the areas may re-enter a minimum 14-day lockdown.</span></p> <p><strong>Back to school</strong></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The Premier confirmed that schools will be fully returning to face-to-face learning from Monday, October 25, with the assumption that the state will reach the 70 percent double dose target by then.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“It is really important for school communities, for students and teachers to have a fixed date they open to provide certainty,” Ms Berejiklian said.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">“We assumed, and I think that assumption will bear fruit that by that stage, 70 percent of adults would be vaccinated and there would be some start of the vaccination for 12-15-year-olds.”</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The news comes as the state recorded 1405 locally acquired cases to 8pm on Wednesday night, as well as the deaths of five people.</span></p> <p><em><span style="font-weight: 400;">Image: Getty Images</span></em></p>

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Victoria now has a good roadmap out of COVID-19 restrictions

<p>The COVID-19 <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-restrictions-roadmaps">roadmap for Victoria</a> announced by Premier Daniel Andrews sets the state on the right path. Something like it should be emulated by New South Wales, which has not yet achieved zero new cases.</p> <p>Victoria’s roadmap towards what Andrews calls “COVID-normal” makes a <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-path-out-of-covid-19-lockdown-quick-reference-guides-145674">clear distinction between metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria</a>. Restrictions are marginally less severe in regional Victoria, where the incidence of infections is lower.</p> <p>For metropolitan Melbourne there are five steps; regional Victoria has four. For each step, the roadmap outlines which restrictions will be lifted on our road towards the cherished status of COVID-normal – or zero active cases of COVID-19. The roadmap also provisionally outlines when restrictions will be lifted, although this depends on case numbers.</p> <p><strong>Get your news from people who know what they’re talking about.</strong></p> <p>Hear from them</p> <p>For metropolitan Melbourne, the curfew will be eased from next week to start at 9pm instead of 8pm. It will remain in place until new cases average fewer than five per day over the course of a fortnight – the criterion to move to the third step of the roadmap.</p> <p>The first two steps will still entail significant restrictions on public gatherings and visitors, plus the creation of a “single social bubble” allowance, under which people living alone can designate a person who can visit their home. Staged school returns will begin once there are fewer than 50 cases a day on a fortnightly average.</p> <p>Step three sees the partial resumption of Melbourne’s café culture, as well as hairdressing.</p> <p>A new <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-traffic-light-alerts-help-victoria-exit-lockdown-safely-144931">traffic light system</a> will also be introduced to allow a <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/industry-restrictions-roadmap-metro-melbourne">phased reopening for businesses and workplaces</a>.</p> <p><strong>Is the roadmap heading in the right direction?</strong></p> <p>Grattan Institute’s four-point plan, detailed in our report last week titled <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/how-australia-can-get-to-zero-covid-19-cases/">Go for zero</a>, argues that states should reaffirm the <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-24jul20">National Cabinet’s target of zero transmissions</a> and set clear criteria for easing restrictions.</p> <p>The Victorian roadmap keeps appropriate restrictions until zero active cases – the Grattan criterion for defining zero – before the final step on the roadmap, COVID-normal.</p> <p>Grattan’s second criterion – clear and explicit staging of the easing of restrictions – is also met in the Victorian roadmap, but in a confusing way. The thresholds adopted in the Victorian plan are a mishmash of epidemiological criteria, case numbers and dates.</p> <p>It is entirely appropriate that the roadmap’s dates are purely provisional, and subject to epidemiological criteria such as average case numbers. But this raises the question of why the roadmap has dates at all.</p> <p>Victorians may read the epidemiological criteria as reasons to bring forward the provisional dates for easing restrictions, when in reality they are more likely to put the provisional dates back. The public might end up frustrated if the promised date passes with no reward for good behaviour.</p> <p>The epidemiological criteria are expressed in an extremely complex way: a 14-day threshold average, plus further criteria based on the source of infection. Until now, the public’s attention has been focused simply on the number of new cases each day.</p> <p>Introducing this more complex measure is a step backward. Expressing the criterion as an average also runs the risk of the threshold being met but the final few days of the 14-day averaging period revealing an upward trend. A simple and clear criterion, based on number of new cases, would have been better.</p> <p><strong>Politics as well as science?</strong></p> <p>The Victorian government has trumpeted the use of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-06/victoria-coronavirus-covid-19-lockdown-restrictions-modelling/12633906">epidemiological modelling to support its decisions</a>. However the first two steps seem to be driven by a mix of politics and science.</p> <p>Step one will occur on September 13, regardless of the number of new cases detected between now and then. The new case threshold for step two is expressed as an average of 30-50 cases a day over the previous 14 days. It is unclear why there is a lower bound; why not just say “fewer than 50 cases”? If it is designed to give political flexibility, it defeats the purpose of clear criteria.</p> <p>Knowledge of the coronavirus and how it works – both in terms of clinical treatment and public health science – is advancing rapidly. We now know more about <a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223">which restrictions work best</a> than we did when Melbourne first entered its Stage 4 lockdown.</p> <p>Some restrictions included in the roadmap – such as night curfews – now have a weak evidence base. The evidence is also stronger now in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext">allowing primary schools to return</a> before secondary schools, but the roadmap takes no account of this distinction. It is a pity the roadmap doesn’t align more closely with the latest science.</p> <p>Lockdowns are necessary, but they have big downsides which need to be weighed against the undoubted benefits. One main downside is that they <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/news/waves-of-inequity-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic/">hit the most disadvantaged people hardest</a>. The cost of social isolation has been somewhat ameliorated in the roadmap, with its provision for “social bubbles”, but this could perhaps have been more generous.</p> <p>Overall, Victoria’s roadmap is good. It identifies the right goal (zero active cases), it provides explicit criteria for when restrictions might be lifted (but unfortunately not as clear and simple as they could be), and each of the steps involves mostly appropriate restrictions.</p> <p>Victorians have every reason to share in Andrews’ hopefulness for a COVID-normal Christmas to cap off a very difficult year.</p> <p><em>Written by Stephen Duckett. Republished with permission of <a href="https://theconversation.com/victoria-now-has-a-good-roadmap-out-of-covid-19-restrictions-new-south-wales-should-emulate-it-145393">The Conversation.</a></em></p>

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