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What does El Niño do to the weather in your state?

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kimberley-reid-767059">Kimberley Reid</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> You’ve probably heard El Niño brings hot and dry weather to the eastern states, but what about the rest of Australia? Are we all in for a scorcher this summer? El Niño is what scientists call a <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/overview/climate-system/australian-climate-influences/">climate driver</a>. But it’s just one of many. These climate drivers control year-to-year variations in the weather. Some years are hotter and drier, while others are cooler and wetter. Australia is particularly prone to weather whiplash because our continent is buffeted by climate drivers to our north, south, east and west. The dominant driver in your state may be one of the lesser-known influences. <figure><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/iVhi1wq2sTY?wmode=transparent&start=0" width="440" height="260" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><figcaption>Understanding Climate Drivers (Bureau of Meteorology)</figcaption></figure> <h2>East: El Niño Southern Oscillation</h2> The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the resident climate driver in the Pacific Ocean and the driver with the biggest influence over Australian weather. Differences in sea surface temperatures and winds across the Pacific determine whether we swing towards El Niño (the boy) or La Niña (the girl). <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso">During the El Niño phase</a>, sea surface temperatures near South America are warmer than normal and they are cooler than normal off the coast of eastern Australia. Additionally, trade winds that blow from east to west across the Pacific weaken. El Niño brings hotter daytime temperatures, but often <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History">cooler nights</a>. That’s because reduced cloud cover allows more heat to escape into space overnight. So the same process that increases the chances of heatwaves can also raise the <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/climate-weather/historical-frost-and-heat-maps-south-west-land-division">risk of frost</a> in Western Australia, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria. Australia as a whole is typically drier during an El Niño event. In the tropical regions, El Niño can delay the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">onset of the monsoon and reduce the likelihood of tropical cyclones</a>. In the southern states, the hot and dry conditions increase the chance of intense bushfires. La Niña is the opposite phase. Waters off eastern Australia are warmer than usual, increasing the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=History&enso-impacts=La-Ni%C3%B1a-impacts">chance of tropical cyclones</a> and an earlier start to the monsoon for WA, the Northern Territory and Queensland. So what does El Niño do to the weather in your state? Hover over your state in the interactive map to find out. <iframe id="tc-infographic-1008" class="tc-infographic" style="border: none;" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1008/7f37ae91389db072906b320ffd54d0fefd840c0d/site/index.html" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe> <h2>West: Indian Ocean Dipole</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=iod">Indian Ocean Dipole</a> is like ENSO’s Indian Ocean cousin. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is declared when ocean temperatures near Africa are warmer than normal and ocean temperatures off the coast of Sumatra are cooler than usual. A positive dipole tends to bring warmer and drier conditions, particularly to western and central Australia. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is the reverse and is associated with wetter than normal weather and an increase in <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/why-more-clouds-can-mean-less-rain-in-australia">northwest cloudbands</a>. <h2>North: Madden-Julian Oscillation</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=mjo">Madden-Julian Oscillation</a> is a pulse of storms that start in the Indian Ocean, travel over Northern Australia and Indonesia and die in the Pacific Ocean. Ahead of the pulse, the air sinks, causing sunny and dry weather. Under the pulse is high storm activity and typically heavy rainfall. We describe the Madden-Julian Oscillation based on whether the pulse of storms is <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/">active or inactive</a> and where the storm activity is located on its path between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. As well as causing rainfall, the Madden-Julian Oscillation can control the timing of the monsoon onset and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=tc">tropical cyclone formation</a>. <h2>South: Southern Annular Mode</h2> The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=sam">Southern Annular Mode</a> controls the north and south position of the westerly winds that whizz around the globe in the Southern Ocean. When the winds are further north than usual, we call this the negative phase. But when the westerly wind move towards Antarctica, we call this the positive phase. The phase of the Southern Annular Mode <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.1370">affects how many weather systems</a>, like cold fronts, make landfall over southern Australia. A positive mode may also draw tropical moist air south, which happened in 2022 during the extensive flooding over eastern Australia. <h2>Climate drivers control the odds, but not the result</h2> These four key climate drivers affect the weather on average (over months and seasons), but they do not dictate the exact day-to-day weather we experience. As the Gippsland region of Victoria <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/05/victoria-floods-flooding-warnings-gippsland-region-flood-and-fires-evacuation">saw in October</a>, heavy rainfall can still occur during an El Niño. <figure class="align-center zoomable"><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561494/original/file-20231124-16-ip8fja.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Map of Australia showing the difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, with a large wet patch around Gippsland, Victoria." /></a><figcaption>Difference from normal rainfall during October 2023, showing defined wet area around Gippsland, Victoria surrounded by drier conditions. The Bureau of Meteorology</figcaption></figure> Climate drivers are like a football coach. They can select the best players and develop ingenious strategies, but that doesn’t guarantee a win every time. Players can get injured on the field or simply have a bad game. These uncontrollable factors are challenging to predict and may change the result from what we would expect. Scientists call this stochasticity. The climate drivers are the football coach, but the day-to-day weather systems are the players. The Bureau of Meteorology <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">releases an update</a> on all of these drivers every two weeks. The update explains which drivers are currently active and the forecast for the next few weeks. So, if you are wondering why the weather is cooler during summer, or it’s raining in the middle of the dry season, perhaps take a look at which driver is steering Australia’s weather at the moment.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218257/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kimberley-reid-767059">Kimberley Reid</a>, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/monash-university-1065">Monash University</a> Image credits: Shutterstock This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-el-nino-do-to-the-weather-in-your-state-218257">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

It’s official: Australia is set for a hot, dry El Niño. Here’s what that means for our flammable continent

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-tolhurst-am-184">Kevin Tolhurst AM</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> An El Niño event has <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/world-meteorological-organization-declares-onset-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-conditions">arrived</a>, according to the World Meteorological Organization, raising fears of record high global temperatures, extreme weather and, in Australia, a severe fire season. The El Niño is a reminder that bushfires are part of Australian life – especially as human-caused global warming worsens. But there are a few important considerations to note. First, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">not all</a> El Niño years result in bad bushfires. The presence of an El Niño is only one factor that determines the prevalence of bushfires. Other factors, such as the presence of drought, also come into play. And second, whether or not this fire season is a bad one, Australia must find a more sustainable and effective way to manage bushfires. The El Niño threat only makes the task more urgent. <h2>Understanding fire in Australia</h2> An El Niño is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/june-2023-enso-update-el-ni%C3%B1o-here">declared</a> when the sea surface temperature in large parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean warms significantly. The <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/world-meteorological-organization-declares-onset-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-conditions">statement</a> by the World Meteorological Organization, released on Tuesday, said El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years “setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and disruptive weather and climate patterns”. The organisation says there’s a 90% probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. It said El Niño can trigger extreme heat and also cause severe droughts over Australia and other parts of the world. But before we start planning ahead for the next bushfire season, it’s important to understand what drives bushfire risks – and the influence of climate change, fire management and events such as El Niño. The evidence for human-induced climate change is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">irrefutable</a>. While the global climate has changed significantly <a href="https://theconversation.com/while-we-fixate-on-coronavirus-earth-is-hurtling-towards-a-catastrophe-worse-than-the-dinosaur-extinction-130869">in the past</a>, the current changes are occurring at an unprecedented rate. In geologic time scales, before the influence of humans, a significant <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/pub?list=BRO&pid=procite:13c02405-e8c6-466c-a400-f6137710a651">shift</a> in climate has been <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/book/6836/">associated</a> with an increase in fire activity in Australia. There is every reason to expect fire activity will increase with human-induced climate change as well. Humans have also changed the Australian fire landscape – both First Nations people and, for the past 200 years, European colonisers. Changes brought about by Indigenous Australians were widespread, but <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32378038/">sustainable</a>. Their methods included, for example, lighting “cool” fires in small, targeted patches early in the dry season. This reduced the chance that very large and intense fires would develop. Changes brought about by European colonisers have also been widespread – such as land clearing using fire, and fire suppression to protect human life and property. But this approach has been <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/30388718_National_Inquiry_on_Bushfire_Mitigation_and_Management">far from sustainable</a>, either financially, ecologically or socially. Australia has just experienced a period of high rainfall across the continent due to a La Niña event <a href="https://climateextremes.org.au/large-scale-climate-drivers-in-australia-2022/#:%7E:text=The%20combined%20influence%20of%20a,in%20123%20years%20of%20records.">combined with</a> two other climate drivers: a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a positive Southern Annular Mode. It means the soil is moist and plants are flourishing. Now, we’re set to enter into a drying period driven by an El Niño. The abundant plant growth leading into a dry period is likely to result in widespread bushfires across Australia. Initially, this is <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/">likely to occur</a> in semi-arid inland areas where grasses have flourished in the wet period, but will dry out quickly. If the drying cycle persists for two or three years, then fires might become more prevalent in forests and woodlands in temperate Australia. But an El Niño year doesn’t necessarily mean a bad bushfire season is certain. In Australia, El Niño events are associated with hotter and drier conditions, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263018552_Multi-decadal_variability_of_forest_fire_risk_-_Eastern_Australia">leading to more days</a> of high fire danger. But large and severe forest fires also need a prolonged drought to dry out fuels, especially in sheltered gullies and slopes. Soils and woody vegetation are currently moist following the La Niña period. So El Niño and its opposite phase, La Niña, are on their own are a relatively <a href="https://research.monash.edu/en/publications/forecasting-fire-activity-in-victoria-australia-using-antecedent-">poor predictor</a> of the number and size of bushfires. <h2>Fight smarter, and be prepared</h2> Climate change will continue to test our fire management systems. And the return of an El Niño has fire crews <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/10/australia-firefighters-fire-crews-prepare-for-return-of-el-nino-bushfire-season-smoke-hazard-reduction-burns">on alert</a>. When it comes to fire management, Australia must be much smarter than it has been for the past 200 years. This means changing the focus to holistic fire management. Throwing huge amounts of money and resources at controlling bushfires – such as <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7034300/govt-vows-to-get-more-firefighting-aircraft/">purchasing more</a> and larger <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/new-weapon-to-fight-aussie-bushfires-kicks-off-service-in-wa/news-story/fa66e567e336164723cae8b98bb3ba8d">firefighting aircraft</a> – is is not sustainable or sensible. Fire is as fundamental to our environment as wind and rain. And the amount of energy released from a large bushfire will never be matched by any level of resources humans can muster. The evidence bears this out. Take, for example, <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF9970221">analysis</a> of fire dynamics in two areas north and south of the US-Mexico border. Between 1920 and 1972, authorities on the US side had spent hundreds of millions of dollars on firefighting aircraft and other resources trying to suppress wildfires. This resulted in fewer wildfires than in the Mexico region. But the fires that occurred were larger and more severe. Similar patterns have occurred in Australia. For example, a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284776990_Evidence_of_altered_fire_regimes_in_the_Western_Desert_regime_of_Australia">study</a> of burn patterns in the Western Desert region showed that after the exodus of Traditional Owners, the number of fires reduced substantially, but the fires became far bigger. <h2>Change must happen</h2> Damaging bushfires will return to Australia in the near future. The expected return of another El Niño should heighten efforts to create a more considered and sustainable fire management regime – particularly in southern Australia. Experts, including me, have <a href="https://www.forestry.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Final-KPI-Document-v2.pdf">devised</a> <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/4935/nationalbushfiremanagementpolicy_2014.pdf">plans</a> to guide the shift. They include: <ul> <li>effectively managing the land with fire, including promoting Indigenous Australians’ use of fire</li> <li>engaging communities in bushfire mitigation and management</li> <li>better coordination across land, fire and emergency management agencies</li> <li>ensuring fire management is based on “best practice” approaches.</li> </ul> Australia, with its wealth of scientific knowledge and long history of Indigenous land management, should be well placed to manage fire sustainably – even with the pressures of climate change. Changing our approach will not be quick or simple, but it must be done.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209126/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-tolhurst-am-184">Kevin Tolhurst AM</a>, Hon. Assoc. Prof., Fire Ecology and Management, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-melbourne-722">The University of Melbourne</a> Image credits: Getty Images This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-australia-is-set-for-a-hot-dry-el-nino-heres-what-that-means-for-our-flammable-continent-209126">original article</a>.

Domestic Travel

An El Niño looms over Australia’s stressed electricity system – and we must plan for the worst

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dylan-mcconnell-1602">Dylan McConnell</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/iain-macgill-576">Iain MacGill</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> The Bureau of Meteorology this week declared a 70% chance of an <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/1170/the-bureau-of-meteorology-issues-an-el-nino-alert/">El Niño</a> developing this year. It’s bad timing for the electricity sector, and means Australians may face supply disruptions and volatile prices. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a008-el-nino-and-australia.shtml">El Niño events</a> are <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-floods-to-fire-a-climate-scientist-on-the-chances-el-nino-will-hit-australia-this-year-197408">associated with</a> increased temperatures and heatwaves. These conditions drive demand for electricity, especially in summer. These same conditions can also mean some generators don’t produce at full capacity. And unfortunately, the likely El Niño comes as the electricity sector grapples with other significant headwinds. Australia’s electricity grid may be fine this summer. But given what’s on the horizon, it would be prudent to plan for the worst. <h2>How does hot weather affect energy supplies?</h2> Increased air conditioning use in summer can cause <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2022/forecasting-approach-electricity-demand-forecasting-methodology.pdf">demand to peak</a>, particularly during heatwaves, as the below graph shows. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=208&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530604/original/file-20230607-27-m1kddg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Scatterplot of New South Wales demand and temperature, example based on 2017 calendar year" /><figcaption>Scatterplot of New South Wales demand and temperature, example based on 2017 calendar year. AEMO</figcaption></figure> At the same time, electricity generators – including coal, gas, <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/projects/esci/esci-case-studies/case-study-heat/">solar and wind</a> – can become less efficient in hot temperatures, and so provide less energy to the system. And the hotter transmission lines get, the less electrical current they can safely carry. This lowers their capacity to transport energy. When the electricity grid is under stress, this can lead to “load shedding” or blackouts – when power companies deliberately switch off the power supply to groups of customers to prevent the overall system from becoming dangerously unstable. This happened in Victoria in early 2019, when more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-26/victorian-blackouts-what-caused-them-and-is-this-the-new-normal/10751412">200,000 customers</a> lost power during a period of extreme heat. El Niño events are also associated with reduced rainfall. Among other effects on the electricity grid, this can reduce output from hydroelectricity generators (which produce electricity by pumping water through turbines). This <a href="https://theconversation.com/praying-for-rain-50085">occurred</a> in Tasmania in 2016, and contributed to an energy crisis in that state. <h2>Other headwinds are blowing</h2> Aside from facing a likely El Niño, the electricity sector faces other headaches. Earlier this year, the Australian Energy Market Operator <a href="https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/aemo-issues-nem-reliability-update">warned</a> electricity demand “may exceed supply” at times over the next decade due to factors such as weather conditions or generator outages. The market operator pointed to delays to the Snowy 2.0 hydro project and the gas-fired <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/new-snowy-ceo-can-t-rule-out-further-delays-at-projects-20230213-p5cjzr">Kurri Kurri Power Station</a>, both in New South Wales. The Kurri Kurri project has been delayed for a year. It was scheduled to begin operating in December this year – in time for the first summer since the Liddell coal-fired power station closed. The Australian Energy Market Operator said the electricity system was expected to meet the “reliability standard” in all regions for the next five years. The <a href="https://www.aemc.gov.au/energy-system/electricity/electricity-system/reliability#:%7E:text=What%20is%20the%20Reliability%20Standard,to%20be%20met%20each%20year.">standard requires</a> at least 99.998% of forecast demand be met each year. Unmet demand can lead to interrupted supply, or blackouts. But the operator also said delays to the Kurri Kurri project posed risks to reliability in NSW this summer. Adding to the pressures on the system, Queensland’s Callide C coal-fired power station is still not back to capacity more than two years after an explosion at the site. The station’s owners last week <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/energy-grid-fears-as-callide-c-return-delayed-until-mid-2024-20230529-p5dc90">announced</a> the plant would not be fully operational until mid-2024. Combine all this with a likely El Niño, and the electricity sector may be facing a challenging summer. <h2>El Niño years are not normal</h2> In August, the Australian Energy Market Operator is due to publish a new <a href="https://aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2022/esoo-and-reliability-forecast-methodology-document-2022.pdf">assessment</a> of the grid’s expected reliability over the next decade. It may well show reliability standards will be achieved. On first blush, that sounds like good news. However, the way the assessment is derived may mask the real risk during El Niño periods. The assessment combines a number of scenarios, which are based on different <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/projected-assessment-of-system-adequacy">forecasts</a> of electricity demand. The scenarios based on average weather conditions are given the most weight. But if an El Niño arrives, this summer will not be average. We’re likely to experience very hot and dry conditions. This may lead to higher demands on the energy system, and a greater likelihood of blackouts. This won’t be properly reflected in the assessment. So the grid may be deemed reliable even though electricity supplies are under immense pressure. <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530771/original/file-20230608-30-lb28wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="repair person climbs power pole" /><figcaption>The grid may be deemed reliable even though it’s under pressure. Shutterstock</figcaption></figure> <h2>What can be done?</h2> You might find all this news worrying. But there are measures and technologies in place to help reduce the risks. <a href="https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/emergency-management/reliability-and-emergency-reserve-trader-rert">A mechanism</a> exists that allows the market operator to secure emergency energy reserves. It could mean, for example, calling on a large industrial plant to pause operations to reduce its electricity use, or starting up a standby diesel generator. The operator can start procuring this months ahead of time, and will no doubt be monitoring the situation closely. In the medium term, the uptake of so-called “consumer energy resources” such as rooftop solar farms and small-scale battery storage shows promise. These technologies are located at homes and businesses. They can reduce demand on the grid at peak times and can potentially be built faster than big projects. Longer term, we need to build more “stuff”. This includes renewable energy and other “dispatchable” resources – which can provide energy when it’s needed – as well as more transmission infrastructure. Several federal funding measures – the <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/government-priorities/energy-supply/capacity-investment-scheme">Capacity Investment Scheme</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov.au/news-media/news/rewiring-nation-supports-its-first-two-transmission-projects">Rewiring the Nation</a> – might help realise these projects. The reality is that ageing coal plants are closing – and while they remain open, they’re contributing to reliability challenges in the energy system. Unchecked climate change will also add considerable strain, through natural disasters and more extreme weather. Unfortunately, investment in renewable and other low-emission technology has been <a href="https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news/clean-energy-construction-peaks-as-investment-pipeline-battles-headwinds">slower than necessary</a>. This has slowed Australia’s emissions reduction efforts and cast questions over the reliability of our energy supplies as an El Niño looms.<img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207210/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /> <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dylan-mcconnell-1602">Dylan McConnell</a>, Senior Research Associate, Renewable Energy & Energy Systems Analyst, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/iain-macgill-576">Iain MacGill</a>, Joint director, Collaboration on Energy and Environmental Markets, and Professor, School of Electrical Engineering and Telecommunications, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a> This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-el-nino-looms-over-australias-stressed-electricity-system-and-we-must-plan-for-the-worst-207210">original article</a>. Images: Getty

Technology

From floods to fire? A climate scientist on the chances El Niño will hit Australia this year

After three soggy years of La Niña in a row, Australia has endured record-breaking floods, the latest of which has inundated <a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">the Kimberley</a> in Western Australia and across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-17/qld-weather-system-brings-rainfall-floodwaters-chance-of-cyclone/101859094">north and central Queensland</a>. While the rains may have initially been a relief after the heat, drought and fires that came before, they have long outstayed their welcome. Thankfully, the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Overview">latest update</a> from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) points to a continuing weakening of La Niña – but it also points to the possibility of El Niño emerging by the autumn. You can think of El Niño as being like the opposite of La Niña. While La Niña is known for bringing cooler, rainy weather, El Niño brings hot, dry conditions. This means it’s often associated with drought, heatwaves and bushfires. The world’s hottest year on record in 2016 was an El Niño year. Let’s take a closer look at BOM’s forecast and what Australians can expect in the coming months. <h2>The difference between El Niño, La Niña and climate change</h2> La Niña and El Niño events are “climate drivers”, which means they are part of the natural oscillations of the Earth’s climate. Human-caused climate change, on the other hand, acts over a longer term, steadily bringing up the planet’s average temperature and exacerbating some of the impacts of La Niña and El Niño events. La Niña is characterised by cooler waters than normal in the tropical eastern Pacific near Peru and Ecuador and warmer waters in the west Pacific including around northern Australia. When we have La Niña we have an increased chance of wet conditions over northern and eastern Australia, especially in spring. The past three years with consecutive La Niña events have followed this pattern. In contrast, El Niño is associated with warmer waters over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and cooler waters in the west. El Niño conditions bring an increased chance of warmer and drier conditions in Australia. For now we have a dissipating La Niña, and there is strong confidence it will continue to weaken over the coming weeks. We expect it to be properly finished by the end of summer. <h2>The likelihood of El Niño forming</h2> As we look further ahead, our confidence in what will happen next reduces. BOM’s outlook suggests El Niño conditions could arrive by late autumn, but other <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean">forecast models</a> point to a lower chance of El Niño emerging at all. Forecasts of El Niño are challenging several months in advance, but particularly at this time of year when they have to overcome the “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-03/autumn-climate-reset-clouding-forecasters-crystal-balls/100043614">autumn predictability barrier</a>”. In autumn, there is less variation in the Pacific Ocean’s temperature and it’s harder to forecast if an El Niño or La Niña will emerge by winter. We are by no means guaranteed a switch to El Niño, but there is a higher probability of an El Niño forming in the next few months than we’ve seen for several years. Australia is also affected by other natural climate drivers, such as the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/IOD-what.shtml">Indian Ocean Dipole</a>, which has a strong effect on winter weather. This climate driver is brought about by interactions between ocean currents and the atmosphere, and influences rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean, including Australia. It’s currently forecast to move into a “positive phase” by early winter, which would favour a drier winter over most of Australia as well <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml#tabs=Indian-Ocean">but this is also still uncertain</a>. <h2>From floods to drought?</h2> With indications of a shift to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, should we expect to swing from floods to drought? <a href="https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-can-dry-out-soil-in-weeks-new-research-shows-what-they-look-like-in-australia-161286">Drought occurs on different timescales</a>, but Australia’s most devastating droughts, which result in major agricultural losses and water restrictions, require several years of dry conditions. With our dams full, it’s unlikely we’ll see a major drought form for a while. If we have an extended period without La Niña or negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, then drought may <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-drought-busting-rain-depends-on-the-tropical-oceans-132188">start to appear again</a>. However, the drier weather would also raise the risks of other hazards such as heatwaves and bushfires. The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00065-8">horror 2019-2020 fire season</a> came off the back of a weak El Niño and a strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Indeed, Australia’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a032.shtml">hottest summer on record</a> was during the El Niño of 2018-2019. This time, our three consecutive La Niña events have resulted in more vegetation growth. This means next summer, there will be more fuel for fires to burn. <h2>New heights for global temperatures</h2> El Niño doesn’t just affect Australia. For example, during El Niño events we typically see a weaker Indian monsoon and drier conditions over southern Africa. East Africa, which has suffered greatly <a href="https://theconversation.com/famine-should-not-exist-in-2022-yet-somalia-faces-its-worst-yet-wealthy-countries-pay-your-dues-191952">from drought</a> in recent times, is usually wetter during El Niño. As El Niño events involve the warming of a large area of the Pacific Ocean they tend to raise the global average surface temperature by about one-tenth of a degree. While that might not sound like very much, it could push the global average surface temperature to record-breaking highs, particularly in the year after an El Niño forms. Given the planet is rapidly warming due to our continuing high greenhouse gas emissions, and the fact we haven’t had a big El Niño for a while, even a moderate El Niño could mean the world experiences a new record hot year. There is even the possibility the global average temperature <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2354672-strong-el-nino-could-make-2024-the-first-year-we-pass-1-5c-of-warming/">could surpass 1.5℃</a> above pre-industrial levels for the first time. While we’re aiming to keep global warming under 1.5℃ to meet the Paris Agreement, an individual year above this mark does not mean we have failed. Still, it’s not a good sign if we start to hit that mark. <h2>Is climate change altering El Niño?</h2> It’s not yet clear exactly how climate change may be altering El Niño. However, there are indications climate change may be moving El Niño events <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-has-rapidly-become-stronger-and-stranger-according-to-coral-records-115560">towards the central Pacific</a> nearer the international dateline. Climate change could also possibly strengthen rainfall responses to El Niño and La Niña over the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12580">Pacific</a> and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GL097511">elsewhere</a>. This may worsen both our floods and droughts in Australia, but more research is needed. Unfortunately, in terms of global temperatures and Australian heatwaves, it’s clear the combination of human-caused climate change and a major El Niño event increases the likelihood of record-breaking events. An El Niño may not be a welcome a reprieve from the past few soggy years. Image credits: Getty Images This article originally appeared on <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-floods-to-fire-a-climate-scientist-on-the-chances-el-nino-will-hit-australia-this-year-197408" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.

Travel Trouble

Climate scientist warns a deadly bushfire season is "likely"

An early climate model has suggested a hot and dry El Niño could form once La Niña - the event responsible for three years of flooding rains - comes to a slow close. Should this be on the horizon, a summer of drought, heatwaves and bushfires are all but certain according to a climate expert. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released its latest climate driver update on Thursday, stating ocean temperatures "remain warmer than average in the western Pacific". Models indicate sea-surface temperatures may exceed El Niño thresholds in the equatorial Pacific by June. Dr Wenju Cai, a climate scientist with the CSIRO, said an El Niño is "likely" to form. "We have been through three years of La Niña, during each of which heat is stored in the equatorial Pacific," he told 9News.com.au. "With so much heat charged in the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño is readily triggered by relaxation of the trade winds over the region." "(The) majority of prediction models are predicting an El Niño by the summer.” After extreme wet weather conditions and soaking rains, Cai holds fears for the next bushfire season - warning it could recall the grim scenes of Black Summer of 2019 and early 2020. The World Health Organisation (WHO) says heatwaves are among the most dangerous of natural hazards. Cai said Australia should know for certain what the summer will hold by June. "Between March and May, predictability is low as this is a period in which there is high noise, the so-called autumn predictability barrier," he said. One thing is for certain though, La Niña is drawing to a close. Image: Getty

Travel Trouble

Young boy who drowned in flood waters identified

The young boy who drowned in flood waters in rural New South Wales has been identified as five-year-old Jayden El Jer. The family of five from Sydney had taken a trip to Dubbo Zoo on Friday 23 and were heading back to their holiday home at Tullamore when tragedy struck and they got stuck in flood waters. Jayden’s parents Joseph El Jer and Pam Hadchity and two younger siblings, baby Bachir and three-year-old daughter Valentina, were able to scramble out of the submerged Hilux ute to safety. Unfortunately, five-year-old Jayden remained trapped inside as his desperate family called out to him before the ute sank. Emergency services found the ute around 3.20pm the following day with Jayden’s body still inside. A report will be prepared for the coroner with Jayden being remembered as a "bright, bubbly boy". His mother Pam had shared photos of their trip to the zoo just hours before the horrific accident. Jayden was only in kindergarten at Christ the King Primary School in North Rocks, Sydney. “I am writing to share some very sad news with you. Over the weekend, one of our Kindergarten students Jayden lost his life in an accident caused by flooding in Central West NSW,” the school’s principal Tony Hughes said in a statement. “Our entire community will be deeply affected by this tragic loss of our friend and classmate, Jayden. Jayden joined our caring community at the beginning of 2022. “This is a very distressing time for Jayden’s family, for his classmates and for our staff. For many students, the news of Jayden’s death will bring with it a range of strong feelings.” Mr Hughes said that there will be additional support and counselling offered to students as they come to terms with the loss of their fellow classmate. “It is important that we give our young people the opportunity to talk about what they are experiencing and to support them to feel safe and heard,” he continued. “I have arranged for additional counselling to be available at school once students return on October 11. “There will be an opportunity soon for our caring community to reach out and offer kindness and support to Jayden’s family. I will provide you with more information when it is appropriate to do so.” Images: Facebook

News

Five dead and dozens injured after stadium collapses during Colombian bullfight

Dozens have been injured and at least five people have died during a bullfight in Colombia after the improvised wooden stadium collapsed. Footage shows the stands crumbling during a “correlaja”, an event where spectators jump into the ring to run alongside the bulls, in El Espina in Tolima as part of the annual San Juan and San Pedro festivities, per <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/world/colombia-stadium-collapse-multiple-fatalities-after-improvised-venue-crumples-during-bull-fight/3256acdc-3af3-4226-b9ea-0afdc1dc5e5a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">9News</a>. According to reports, at least one bull has escaped the stadium into neighbouring streets. “At this moment, we have four (dead) victims confirmed - two women, an adult man and a minor - plus about 30 people seriously injured,” Governor Ricardo Orozco told local radio outlet BlueRadio Colombia. “Of course, we have activated all the hospitals and ambulances we can work with.” <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SOSEspinal?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SOSEspinal</a> necesitamos el apoyo de los organismos de socorro, ambulancia, médicos para atender la emergencia, hay una emergencia. <a href="https://twitter.com/DefensaCivilCo?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DefensaCivilCo</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NoticiasCaracol?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NoticiasCaracol</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CanalRCN?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CanalRCN</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/MONYRODRIGUEZOF?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MONYRODRIGUEZOF</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/cruzrojacol?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cruzrojacol</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DCoronell?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DCoronell</a> <a href="https://t.co/2BI5sEuziS">pic.twitter.com/2BI5sEuziS</a> — Ivan Ferney Rojas M. (@IvanRojasCR) <a href="https://twitter.com/IvanRojasCR/status/1541134357565476868?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 26, 2022</a></blockquote> However, there are fears the number of injured could be much higher, with Major Luis Fernando Vélez, director of the civil defence department, telling a local radio station that “there is talk of 500 wounded”. A statement released by the Mayor’s Office of Espinal said they “deeply regret what happened in the building”. “We want to call for calm to the entire community,” it read. “Once the emergency became known, the relief agencies acted immediately, achieving the evacuation of the injured for primary care at the San Rafael Hospital in the municipality.” But, one local councillor told newspaper El Tiempo that local hospitals are struggling to cope with the influx of patients. “We still need support from ambulances and neighbouring hospitals, many people are still unattended,” Iván Ferney Rojas told the publication. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> Espero que todas las personas afectadas por el derrumbe de la plaza de El Espinal puedan salir airosas de sus heridas. Esto ya había sucedido antes en Sincelejo. Le solicito a las alcaldías no autorizar más espectáculos con la muerte de personas o animales. <a href="https://t.co/dMAq6uqlKX">pic.twitter.com/dMAq6uqlKX</a> — Gustavo Petro (@petrogustavo) <a href="https://twitter.com/petrogustavo/status/1541138473532493826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 26, 2022</a></blockquote> The incident has also brought bullfighting into the spotlight, with president-elect Gustavo Petro calling for the events to stop. “This has already happened before in Sincelejo,” he tweeted. “I ask the mayors not to authorise more shows with the death of people or animals.” Mr Orozco also confirmed on <a href="https://twitter.com/Ricardo_Orozv/status/1541169975439892488" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Twitter</a> that the incident is being attended to by the departmental risk management committee and extraordinary security council. Image: 9News

News

Queen Elizabeth hopeful for 2021 in special message

After a turbulent year gets left behind, Queen Elizabeth has given a special message to anyone who might have struggled in 2020. Her Majesty shared a few special words on the official royal family Instagram account, writing “We should take comfort that while we may have more still to endure, better days will return: we will be with our friends again; we will be with our families again; we will meet again." <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/CJdnI_6ncrK/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="13"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CJdnI_6ncrK/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank">A post shared by The Royal Family (@theroyalfamily)</a> </div> </blockquote> The beautiful words were finished off with, "Her Majesty The Queen," before the post continued, "Wishing you all a Happy and Healthy New Year." The lovely Instagram post included four photos from the Queen’s year, which underwent a series of changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic forcing the royal family to make adaptations to their duties. The first photograph is the portrait taken to pay homage to Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip's 73rd wedding anniversary, which took place in November. The second photo also showed "The iconic Round Tower at Windsor Castle was turned blue twice this year to thank NHS staff for their vital work during the pandemic." The third photo is of the queen's address to the nation near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was screened in Piccadilly Circus in London. The last photograph is the queen being shown knighting Captain Tom Moore, the 100-year-old who led a huge fundraising effort for the United Kingdom's National Health Service.

Caring

This new flight links Melbourne to the Kimberley

Direct flights are set to link Melbourne to the Kimberley. The East Kimberley Marketing Group, with the Shire of Wyndham East Kimberley and Alliance Airlines, confirmed that the long-awaited direct flights will commence in May 2020, creating a valuable new Western Australian link into one of Australia’s most iconic tourism destinations. The trial air service will include three return flights per week from Melbourne to Kununurra, the gateway to the Kimberley region, providing east-coast travellers with a direct and affordable opportunity to experience the wonders of the stunning Kimberley region without the inconvenience of multiple lengthy connections. The flights, scheduled to operate during the tourism season from May to August 2020, opens up access to the World Heritage listed Purnululu National Park (Bungle Bungle), El Questro Wilderness Park, Lake Argyle, the Gibb River Road and the northern-Kimberley coast as well as iconic events such as the Argyle Diamonds Ord Valley Muster. The service will utilise Alliance Airlines’ Fokker 70 aircraft, seating 80 passengers, and will be operated on a code-share arrangement with Virgin Australia, allowing passengers to connect through to other ports on the same ticket. Tickets will be available through the Virgin Australia website and will go on sale in the coming weeks. The direct flights, that will be about four hours in duration, will also improve travel options for local residents, reducing barriers to connectivity and improving the liveability of the region. The East Kimberley Marketing Group recognised the need for improved connectivity to the region in a study conducted in 2016. Michael McConachy, Chair of the East Kimberley Marketing Group, said that it was rewarding to see the direct flight service become a reality. “The air service has been made possible through the continued and collaborative efforts of all of the key stakeholders, including local and state government, and the local tourism and business community, and it will be a game-changer for our region,” Mr McConachy said. “The Shire of Wyndham East Kimberley is to be commended on their bold and progressive support of the direct air service." The air service will be underwritten by the Shire of Wyndham East Kimberley, the Kununurra tourism and business industry and the Department of Regional Development. David Menzel, Shire President of the Shire of Wyndham East Kimberley, said it was clear that there continues to be significant and united community support for this service. “The new air service will play a key role in attracting more tourists to the East Kimberley, driving economic growth to the region. It’s also expected to increase and create new business opportunities.” The air service trial supports the Council’s other key strategies of improved connectivity to the region and the lengthening of the runway in Kununurra. Tourism Western Australia has committed $250,000 towards a targeted marketing campaign which will showcase the Kimberley region to east-coast travellers. The Melbourne to Kununurra air service has been further supported by major tour and cruise operator, APT, who have committed to the pre-purchase of a substantial number of the available seats, providing greater access to their guests. The Kimberley, known for its remote location and untouched wild and rugged landscapes, has traditionally been a bucket-list destination for travellers around the world. It is expected that direct flights between Melbourne and Kununurra will commence prior to must-attend event, the 20th annual Argyle Diamonds Ord Valley Muster which was created 19 years ago to kick-off the tourist season in the region. Written by Editorial Staff. Republished with permission of <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.mydiscoveries.com.au/stories/new-flight-links-melbourne-to-the-kimberley/" target="_blank">MyDiscoveries</a>.

Domestic Travel

“Absence of empathy”: Donald and Melania Trump under fire over photo with El Paso shooting victim

A backlash is building over Donald and Melania Trump after the US first lady posted a photo on Twitter showing the couple smiling broadly while holding a two-month-old baby whose parents were killed in the El Paso mass shooting. On a visit to the Texan city last week, the president could be seen flashing a thumbs-up when posing with the infant as well as hospital staff and first responders. The child, named Paul, lost his parents Jordan and Andre Anchondo after they attempted to shield him from the bullets in the August 3 shooting. The boy was discharged from University Medical Center, but reportedly brought back at the request of White House for Trump’s visit. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> I met many incredible people in Dayton, Ohio & El Paso, Texas yesterday. Their communities are strong and unbreakable. <a href="https://twitter.com/POTUS?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@potus</a> and I stand with you! <a href="https://t.co/SHzV6zcVKR">pic.twitter.com/SHzV6zcVKR</a> — Melania Trump (@FLOTUS) <a href="https://twitter.com/FLOTUS/status/1159511786695069697?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 8, 2019</a></blockquote> The pictures have been widely slammed, with many people describing the Trumps’ gesture as insensitive. “Your husband is grinning like a game show contestant and giving a ‘thumbs up’ next to a baby orphaned during another mass murder,” one wrote in response to the first lady’s post. “If you had normal human empathy you’d realize how horribly odd this is.” <img style="width: 500px; height: 374.867px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7829452/trumpselpaso.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/283bb8aeae9d445fa7a6841180934a99" /> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"> Your husband is grinning like a game show contestant and giving a "thumbs up" next to a baby orphaned during another mass murder. If you had normal human empathy you'd realize how horribly odd this is. Then again, if you did you wouldn't be married to him. — John Pavlovitz (@johnpavlovitz) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnpavlovitz/status/1159846976399298561?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-lang="en"> I can’t look at this. I am just stunned & horrified. How did this happen? Who thought releasing a photo of these monsters holding a newly orphaned infant, whose parents were killed thanks to their racist vitriol, with a grin & thumbs up was somehow acceptable? They are heartless. — Amie Wexler (@am_wex) <a href="https://twitter.com/am_wex/status/1159718367516712961?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 9, 2019</a></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"> THE THUMBS UP. I’m nauseous. Bringing an orphaned baby back for a photo op. It’s all horrible. <a href="https://t.co/0Ls8jaRREt">https://t.co/0Ls8jaRREt</a> — Dana Schwartz (@DanaSchwartzzz) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanaSchwartzzz/status/1159883673102979072?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 9, 2019</a></blockquote> A hospital official told <a rel="noopener" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/08/politics/trump-el-paso-victims-hospital-visit/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> there was a general assessment among patients that the president acted with “an absence of empathy” during the visit. “Some people didn’t want any visitors. Some didn’t want to meet [Trump],” the official said. The president did not meet with any of the eight survivors still receiving treatment in the hospital. Five declined to see Trump, while three were in poor condition or do not speak English. According to the <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/09/trump-el-paso-melania-orphan-baby-thumbs-up" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, doctors at the Del Sol medical center also said Trump appeared to “lack empathy” after he boasted about drawing a larger crowd at a January rally in the city than “crazy” 2020 Democratic presidential contender Beto O’Rourke. Tito Anchondo, the uncle of the baby, told The Associated Press on Friday that Trump “was just there to give his condolences and he was just being a human being”. He told the <a href="https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2019/08/06/el-paso-texas-family-grieves-parents-who-died-protecting-newborn-son-walmart-attack/1937865001/">El Paso Times</a> that his late brother supported Trump. He said, “We should be coming together as a country at this time instead of threatening each other with hate messages.”

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Start your adventure in the Kimberley with El Questro

If you have ever wanted to experience the timeless majesty of the awe inspiring Kimberley region but don’t know where to start, the El Questro Wilderness Park might be the perfect package. The sixty by eighty square kilometre park rewards the visitor with all the diversity and grandeur that this ancient region has to offer. Accommodation options to suit every taste To access the park, you can fly in from any capital city to Kununurra, where a regular road transfer service can take you into the park area. The park offers a range of accommodation options, all of them superbly integrated into the dramatic landscape. At <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.elquestro.com.au/stay/emma-gorge" target="_blank">Emma Gorge</a> you can stay in the comfort of delightful tented cabins that give grand vistas of the ancient gorge escarpment, without sacrificing the modern touches of a contemporary licenced restaurant and pool. Emma Gorge has several self-guided nature trails and can also serve as a base for exploring the park. <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/ByUcGsLlV0G/" data-instgrm-version="12"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <a style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/ByUcGsLlV0G/" target="_blank">Champagne Spring is a hidden wonder. Well worth the journey, the 4.8km riverside trail is long and filled with broken terrain, particularly in the second leg of the hike with a refreshing cascading waterfall at the end.</a> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by <a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/elquestro/" target="_blank"> El Questro</a> (@elquestro) on Jun 5, 2019 at 12:16am PDT </div> </blockquote> If you are looking for more substantial lodgings, you can stay at one of the well-appointed bungalows at <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.elquestro.com.au/stay/the-station" target="_blank">The Station</a> on the banks of the Pentecost River. With beautiful tropical surroundings, you can enjoy gourmet meals in the restaurant, a cooling drink in the bar or refresh yourself with a stroll down to the swimming lagoon. The premier accommodation in the park is <a rel="noopener" href="https://www.elquestro.com.au/the-homestead" target="_blank">The Homestead</a>; a sprawling property surrounded by lush tropical gardens and comprising a range of luxury suites. All are superbly decorated and enjoy sweeping views of the Chamberlain Gorge and River system. Tariffs are structured to be fully inclusive of an elegant room, gourmet cuisine, beverages and personalised guided tours in the valley. <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/Bw1eDxUA_e3/" data-instgrm-version="12"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <a style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Bw1eDxUA_e3/" target="_blank">Take in expansive views of the Chamberlain River and the Kimberley jungle from the private deck of your Homestead villa, a remote and exclusive retreat on the edge of wilderness. As you soak in your alfresco bath, you may spot swooping birds and jumping fish.</a> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by <a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/elquestro/" target="_blank"> El Questro</a> (@elquestro) on Apr 29, 2019 at 3:05am PDT </div> </blockquote> The full Kimberley experience The organised tours via boat, helicopter or horseback let you experience the enormous scale of the park and gain access to the best attractions, such as remote waterholes, cascading waterfalls and crystalline rivers that carve into the red rock. <blockquote style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" class="instagram-media" data-instgrm-captioned="" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/p/BwO16XwAlfE/" data-instgrm-version="12"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"></div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"></div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"></div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"></div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"></div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <a style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BwO16XwAlfE/" target="_blank">Doesn't the majestic Emma Gorge look a lot different? All of her stunning layers are showcased at this height. Emma Gorge opens on 17th April. 📸: @ben_broady</a> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by <a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px;" rel="noopener" href="https://www.instagram.com/elquestro/" target="_blank"> El Questro</a> (@elquestro) on Apr 14, 2019 at 3:03am PDT </div> </blockquote> The flora and exotic wildlife that inhabit the region make for an intense natural experience and your ranger will ensure you get the most value from your time in this unspoiled and largely unexplored piece of unique wilderness. Written by Tom Raeside. Republished with permission of <a href="https://www.wyza.com.au/articles/travel/start-your-kimberley-adventure-with-el-questro.aspx">Wyza.com.au</a>.

Domestic Travel

5 reasons you need to experience the magic of Western Australia

<a href="https://www.travelmarvel.com.au/discover/western-australia-2019?utm_source=url&utm_medium=alias&utm_campaign=westernaustralia">Western Australia</a> is the largest state within Australia, and due to its sheer size, it can be tricky to know where to start when you want to explore it. With hidden natural treasures, a vast array of native wildlife to see and delicious seafood to eat and explore, where do you even begin We have narrowed down the top 5 reasons you need to experience the magic of Western Australia and all that is has to offer. 1. Enjoy delicious seafood and wine Due to the diversity of Western Australia’s rivers and oceans, there’s a whole range of fresh flavours to be discovered. Head to Kalbarri and Monkey Mia to feast on a range of seafood specialities that have been caught from the ocean. With Rottnest scallops, Geraldton rock lobsters, yabbies and trout, Western Australia is a seafood lover’s dream. Once you have enjoyed your seafood feast, head to the Margaret River region and enjoy the wine tastings on offer. From the first commercial vineyard planting in 1967, the Margaret River region has become known for being one of the best wine regions in the world. The region produces a massive 20 per cent of Australia’s premium wine. 2. See the jaw-dropping natural wonders on offer With Wave Rock rising 15 metres above the outback plain, you will truly be in awe at this natural wonder. It took over 2,700 million years for this natural wonder to form, and the 110-metre-long multicoloured granite cliff will leave you speechless. There’s also The Pinnacles out in Nambung National Park, which are a natural wonder as well. The pillars are limestone structures, with some standing as high as five metres. They were formed approximately 25,000 to 30,000 years ago and came into existence due to the coastal winds leaving the pillars exposed to the elements. For those of you who prefer a gentler approach to natural wonders, Western Australia is known for its wildlife flowers being in bloom in Kalbarri National Park. With 800 species of wildflowers blooming in the spring, this is not a sight to be missed. The blooming wildflowers are most spectacular to see during late August to October. <img style="width: 500px; height: 281.25px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://oversixtydev.blob.core.windows.net/media/7827451/travelmarvel-body.jpg" alt="" data-udi="umb://media/44bfe6e996264f84bbe53f6af8e82f27" /> The Pinnacles, Western Australia 3. Enjoy seeing the native wildlife Head off to <a href="https://www.travelmarvel.com.au/trips/australia/wa/tsw15">Monkey Mia</a> and see pods of wild dolphins swim close to the shore and explore while you’re standing on the beach. As well as dolphins there are sharks, dugongs, rays, turtles and a variety of fish within the ocean. You also have the opportunity to see pelicans and emus in this natural oasis. Head off to Ningaloo Marine Park and prepare to be amazed at the sea life inhabited in the area – with 500 species of tropical fish located within the marine park. Ningaloo is also known for being the place that the giant but gentle whale shark calls home. Large numbers visit every year from April to July and you also have the opportunity to swim with them if you desire. <div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1TdY3CgiRdw"></iframe></div> Wildlife lovers may also like to explore Shark Bay. The World-Heritage listed area covers an area of more than 2.2 million hectares and is one of the world’s greatest wilderness treasures. There are more than 100 species of reptiles, 240 species of bird and 820 species of fish within the bay, which are all waiting to be seen by you. 4. Relax in the heart of the Kimberley The untamed beauty of <a href="https://www.travelmarvel.com.au/trips/australia/wa/twn18">El Questro</a> is something that needs to be seen to be believed. There are deep gorges as well as thermal springs, rainforests and cascading waterfalls that are just waiting to be explored. Feel all your worries melt away as you’re surrounded by rainforest and native birdsong. There are cruises available down Chamberlain Gorge, which is one of the Kimberley’s largest gorge systems. You are also able to stay within El Questro, as there are accommodation options available. These include staying at El Questro Station, sleeping in tented cabins that blend into the Australian wilderness at Emma Gorge, or stay in luxury at the exquisite El Questro Homestead. 5. More freedom to do what you want to do As with any holiday, being able to decide what you want to do and when you want to do it is a key part as it allows you to relax. However, as you are exploring a new area, it can be helpful to do some guided tours of the area that allow you to gain more knowledge about the location you’re staying in. Travelmarvel tours ensure that you have the freedom to explore specific parts of Western Australia whilst also giving you the freedom to explore when you want to. There are days within the tours that are flexible to allow you to do whatever you wish in the location that you’re in. This can be ideal if you feel like you’ve missed out on an experience the day before and can then catch up on it afterwards. This is sponsored content brought to you in conjunction with Travelmarvel.

Domestic Travel

Is El Nino set to destroy wine making in our favourite region?

Marlborough wine growers have been warned to prepare, manage and conserve ahead of this summer's El Nino weather conditions that were last seen almost 20 years ago. More than 100 winegrowers packed into a lecture theatre at the Marlborough Research Centre, in Blenheim, on Tuesday to hear what could be expected from this year's El Nino. The capacity turnout showed how seriously wine growers viewed the next five to six months. Wine growers were cautioned to monitor soil moisture, manage berry growth, and conserve water resources. Plant and Food Research scientist Rob Agnew told the meeting weather conditions so far, as recorded by NIWA, were similar to El Nino in 1997-1998. Previous El Nino events in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98 were all extremely dry summers. But vineyards should be prepared for any eventuality. "There has been little rainfall in the past eight weeks in Marlborough so there is a strong likelihood this pattern will continue through the summer. "El Nino events tend to bring westerly winds with below average temperatures. "In saying that we had above average temperatures in October." A total of 361.4 millimetres of rainfall was recorded in Marlborough up to October 31, the fourth lowest total for 86 years. The lowest rainfall total for January to October was 305.1mm in 1969. "Wine growers take a strong interest in water restrictions and they need to think how to conserve water and prepare for restrictions," Agnew said. Marlborough District Council hydrologist Val Wadsworth said Water flow from the Wairau River had not yet reached the lowest levels recorded. The Wairau River was "moderately low" but water restrictions were on the cards for wine growers if NIWA forecast predictions eventuated, he said. "We have seen it lower at this time of the year in previous years, and a significant rainfall can turn around the level. "It is like a leaky bike tyre, it needs to be pumped up, or refilled, with a series of floods to keep it at high level." Not all of Marlborough would be affected in the same way by an El Nino weather event. "In 1997-98 the Wairau River was very low but there was no shut off of water. "We are shaping up for a good, hard summer, and all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst." Sileni Estate viticulturist Stephen Bradley said wine growers would have to manage with less water in spite of fruit yield expected to be similar to the big 2014 harvest despite the cooler, drier conditions. "We have had a cool, frosty spring but the prediction is warmer conditions near Christmas to ripen the fruit but you also need water to help in the ripening." Viticulture consultant Jim Mercer, of Fruition Services, said much would depend on when water restrictions were made. "If the water is switched off for irrigation close to harvest it will not be as serious as if it is cut off in early January," he said. Written by Mike Watson. First appeared on <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/" target="_blank">Stuff.co.nz</a>.

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Start your adventure in the Kimberley with El Questro

5 reasons you need to experience the magic of Western Australia

Is El Nino set to destroy wine making in our favourite region?

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