Placeholder Content Image

Old grocery receipt highlights extortionate increase at supermarkets

<p>An old Woolworths receipt from 2021 has revealed the grim reality of increased grocery prices, and how inflation has crippled many in just a few short years. </p> <p>A social media user on X, formerly Twitter, shared her receipt from a Melbourne Woolworths as she highlighted how much more common household items cost today. </p> <p>She said it showed how Aussies were shelling out for costs that appear to have moved well past official inflation levels, which rose to 3.8 per cent by the end of June.</p> <p>“We all knew we’re being ripped off! Australians are now paying up to 200% more for basic grocery items than they were a few years ago!” she wrote.</p> <p>“Oh but inflations (sic) currently back at around 3.8% … yeah my ass it is!!”</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Found an old Woolworths receipt circa 2021. </p> <p>We all knew we re being ripped off! Australians are now paying up to 200% more for basic grocery items than they were a few years ago! </p> <p>Oh but inflations currently back at around 3.8% … yeh my ass it is!! </p> <p>Pink Lady Apply $2.90kg… <a href="https://t.co/9OPS6SnOqI">pic.twitter.com/9OPS6SnOqI</a></p> <p>— Miss Madeleine (@MadsMelbourne) <a href="https://twitter.com/MadsMelbourne/status/1832282784431534448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 7, 2024</a></p></blockquote> <p>Her docket shows how everyday items like coffee grounds, potato chips and stain removers have skyrocketed in price.</p> <p>In the receipt items such as a 250g packet of Bega cheese is priced at $4.50 – it’s now $6 for the same item, discounted from $7.50 according to online pricing.</p> <p>Deli fresh Champagne leg ham sold for $2.50 for 100g according to the receipt, while current prices put that at $4.20.</p> <p>Ozkleen prewash power stain remover is now currently listed as $7 for a 500ml bottle, more than 200 per cent higher than the $2.75 it sold for three years ago.</p> <p>The woman also posted another smaller receipt from the same year, in which she bought grapes and a watermelon. </p> <p>In addition to sharing the image, she wrote, "Another one to add! No wonder Australia is having a cost of living crises! Woolworths Receipt circa 2021. Grapes were $3.50kg, now $14.16 = 304% increase. Watermelon was $1.50 now $6.38kg = 325% increase."</p> <p>Grocery prices have come under the spotlight amid the cost-of-living crisis, with the Australian Consumer and Competition Commission tasked with probing the sector.</p> <p>“We know grocery prices have become a major concern for the millions of Australians experiencing cost of living pressures,” ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said in January.</p> <p>“When it comes to fresh produce, we understand that many farmers are concerned about weak correlation between the price they receive for their produce and the price consumers pay at the checkout.”</p> <p>Coles and Woolworths have defended the price rises as being pushed by supply chain struggles, while both companies posted profits of more than $1 billion in the last financial year.</p> <p>A spokesperson for Woolworths also released a statement saying "Ongoing economy-wide inflation means it costs more for many supermarket suppliers to manufacture their products than it did a few years ago. </p> <p>"We remain focussed on delivering lower prices where we can, with our average prices coming down in the last six months, and thousands of specials every week.</p> <p>"The price of fruit and vegetables can vary throughout the year due to weather, seasonality, supply and demand. For example, Haas avocados are currently not in season." </p> <p><em>Image credits: X / Shutterstock </em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

What’s inflation – and how exactly do we measure it?

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-fox-16896">Kevin Fox</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p>If the price of a cup of coffee goes up, coffee drinkers are worse off if their income doesn’t increase by at least the same amount – they have less money to spend on other things.</p> <p>But if the prices of many different goods and services all go up at the same time, it can have a significant impact on people’s ability to buy the things they want or need, such as food and paying the rent.</p> <p>This is inflation – a general increase in prices that reduces the purchasing power of money.</p> <p>High inflation is not good for most households, nor is deflation. Low and stable inflation is generally regarded as beneficial for economic prosperity.</p> <p>But how and why do we measure it?</p> <h2>Tracking a ‘basket’ of important items</h2> <p>A range of factors can cause or contribute to rising prices. Demand for certain products can exceed their supply, particularly when there are reductions in taxes or increases in government spending.</p> <p>Disruptions in supply chains and tariffs on imports can also increase prices.</p> <p>But how do we know if prices are going up across the whole economy, or just for some products? One popular solution is to create an aggregate measure of price changes, such as the consumer price index, or CPI for short.</p> <p>The CPI measures changes in the price of products that are important to consumers, as measured by relative expenditures. It’s calculated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).</p> <p>The CPI covers a wide range of products that come under the following categories:</p> <ul> <li>food and non-alcoholic beverages</li> <li>alcohol and tobacco</li> <li>clothing and footwear</li> <li>housing</li> <li>furnishings, household equipment and services</li> <li>health</li> <li>transport</li> <li>communication</li> <li>recreation and culture</li> <li>education</li> <li>insurance and financial services.</li> </ul> <p>Currently, the full CPI is constructed on a quarterly basis.</p> <p>The ABS collects prices from sellers – nowadays often electronically, such as transaction data from barcode scanners at supermarket checkouts.</p> <p>If information on quantities sold is available, this will also be used to understand the economic importance of particular products to consumers.</p> <p>The main source of information on expenditure patterns is the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/finance/household-expenditure-survey-australia-summary-results/2015-16">Household Expenditure Survey</a>.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="9C4Qr" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9C4Qr/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>All this information from the eight capital cities in Australia is weighted and indexed to create the CPI.</p> <h2>What do we use it for?</h2> <p>The CPI releases attract a lot of attention. They allow us to adjust welfare payments to maintain purchasing power, negotiate wage increases more fairly, and predict how costs are likely to change over time.</p> <p>Most importantly though, the figure is instrumental in determining interest rates.</p> <p>Our central bank – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – has the legislated responsibility to keep inflation between 2-3% per year. But because it cannot control things like taxes and government spending, the key way it does this is by adjusting interest rates.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="CSV4V" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: 0;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/CSV4V/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The Reserve Bank sets the target cash rate – the interest rate on overnight loans between banks. Increasing this rate increases the costs to banks of borrowing.</p> <p>Banks pass this cost on, charging their customers higher interest rates. By increasing the cost of mortgage repayments and discouraging consumers from borrowing money for spending, this reduces consumer demand for products and can help lower inflation.</p> <h2>Headline versus underlying</h2> <p>The CPI is unlikely to be the inflation rate faced by any one individual – we all spend differently. It’s even possible to construct your own inflation rate, if you keep thorough spending records and understand the index methodology.</p> <p>But the CPI is not the only measure of inflation that is produced. It is often referred to “headline” inflation, to contrast it with measures of “underlying” inflation. Underlying inflation can better represent persistent domestic inflationary pressures which may need a policy response.</p> <p>Why can’t we always trust headline CPI? Some items prone to weather conditions or supply shocks, such as fruit and petrol, can face sharp, volatile price movements that skew the headline figure. Excluding them from the calculation can reveal underlying inflation conditions.</p> <p>Alternatives take a statistical approach to adjusting the headline rate, such as the trimmed-mean and weighted median estimates produced by the ABS and used by the RBA.</p> <p>By excluding certain items, these measures don’t reflect full changes in the cost of living faced by households – but neither does headline CPI.</p> <h2>Other ‘flations</h2> <p>You’ll often hear other inflation-related terms bandied about in the news. Here’s a helpful guide to a few of them:</p> <p><strong>Deflation</strong></p> <p>This is negative inflation. This can be bad as consumers will delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall further, leading to economic stagnation.</p> <p><strong>Disinflation</strong></p> <p>Inflation is still positive (overall prices are going up), but the rate of inflation decreases. If inflation was 4% and falls to 3%, this is disinflation, not deflation.</p> <p><strong>Stagflation</strong></p> <p>The economy simultaneously has stagnant growth, high inflation and high unemployment. This is rare, but famously happened during the oil crisis of the 1970s.</p> <p><strong>Hyperinflation</strong></p> <p>The annual rate of inflation in Argentina is currently 271.5%. In 2018 in Venezuela, it was over 1,000,000% per month. This is hyperinflation. The costs of this are enormous.</p> <p>Even with moderately high inflation, consumers are unable to differentiate relative price changes from general price changes in their consumption choices. With hyperinflation, money becomes virtually worthless.</p> <hr /> <p><em>This article is part of The Conversation’s “<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/business-basics-157462">Business Basics</a>” series where we ask experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/235673/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></em></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kevin-fox-16896">Kevin Fox</a>, Professor, School of Economics; Director of the Centre for Applied Economic Research, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-sydney-1414">UNSW Sydney</a></em></p> <p><em>Image </em><em>credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-inflation-and-how-exactly-do-we-measure-it-235673">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Cheaper mortgages, tamed inflation and even higher home prices: how 29 forecasters see Australia’s economic recovery in 2024-25

<div class="theconversation-article-body"><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p>Australia’s top economic forecasters expect the Reserve Bank to start cutting interest rates by March next year, taking 0.35 points of its cash rate by June.</p> <p>If passed on in full, the cut would take $125 off the monthly cost of servicing a $600,000 variable-rate mortgage, with more to come.</p> <p>The panel of 29 forecasters assembled by The Conversation expects a further cut of 0.3 points by the end of 2025. This would take the cash rate down from the current 4.35% to 3.75% and produce a total cut in monthly payments on a $600,000 mortgage of $335.</p> <p>The forecasts were produced <em>after</em> last week’s news of a higher than expected <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-inflation-rate-jumps-to-4-putting-an-rba-rate-rise-back-on-the-agenda-233331">monthly consumers price index</a>.</p> <p>Several of those surveyed revised up their predictions for interest rates in the year ahead, while continuing to predict cuts by mid next year.</p> <p>Only two expect higher rates by mid next year. Only four expect no change.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="6eIe8" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6eIe8/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>Now in its sixth year, The Conversation survey draws on the expertise of leading forecasters in 22 Australian universities, think tanks and financial institutions – among them economic modellers, former Treasury and Reserve Bank officials and a former member of the Reserve Bank board.</p> <p>Eight of the 29 expect the first cut to come this year, by either November or December.</p> <p>One of them is Luci Ellis, who was until recently assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank and is now at Westpac. She and her team are forecasting three interest rate cuts by the middle of next year, taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 3.6%.</p> <h2>Reserve Bank a ‘reluctant hiker’</h2> <p>Ellis says inflation isn’t falling fast enough for the bank to be confident of being able to cut before November. But after that, even if inflation isn’t completely back within the bank’s target band but is merely moving towards it, a “forward-looking” board would want to start easing interest rates.</p> <p>Another forecaster, Su-Lin Ong of RBC Capital Markets, says in her view the bank should hike at its next board meeting in August after the release of figures likely to show inflation is still too high. But she says the bank is a “reluctant hiker” and keen to keep unemployment low.</p> <p>Although several panellists expect the Reserve Bank to hike rates in the months ahead, almost all expect rates to be lower in a year’s time than they are today.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="2xF3M" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2xF3M/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The panel expects inflation to be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target band by June next year, and to be close to it (3.3%) by the end of this year.</p> <p>Twelve of the panel expect inflation to climb further when the official figures are released at the end of this month, but none expect it to climb further beyond that. And all expect inflation to be lower by the end of the financial year than it is today.</p> <p>One, Percy Allan, a former head of the NSW Treasury, cautions that the tax cuts and other government support measures due to start this month run the risk of boosting spending and falling progress on inflation.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="LGJa7" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LGJa7/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The panel expects wages growth to fall from 4% to 3.5% over the year ahead, contributing to downward pressure on inflation, but to remain higher than prices growth, producing gains in so-called <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realincome.asp">real wages</a>.</p> <p>It expects wages growth to moderate further, to 3.2%, in 2025-26.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="iV7mZ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/iV7mZ/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>Consumer spending is expected to remain unusually weak, growing by only 1.7% in real terms over the next 12 months, up from 1.3% in the latest national accounts.</p> <p>Mala Raghavan, from the University of Tasmania, said even though inflation was falling, previous price rises meant the prices of essentials remained high. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expected the boost from the <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/tax-cuts">Stage 3 tax cuts</a> to be offset by the depressing effect of a weaker labour market.</p> <h2>Unemployment to climb modestly</h2> <p>The panel expects Australia’s unemployment rate to climb steadily from its present historically low 4% to 4.4%.</p> <p>Moodys Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise said although the increase wasn’t big, the effect on pay packets would be bigger. Employers were shaving hours and easing back on hiring rather than letting go of workers.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="SM8PI" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/SM8PI/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>Panellists expect China’s economic growth to slip from 5.3% to 5% and US growth to slip from 2.9% to 2.4%.</p> <p>Australia’s economic growth is expected to climb from the present very low 1.1% to 1.3% by the end of this year and to 2% by the end of next year. Although none of the panel are forecasting a recession, most of those who offered an opinion said if there was a recession, it would start this year when the economy was weak.</p> <p>Some said we might later discover that we have been in a recession if the very weak economic growth of 0.1% recorded in the March quarter is revised and turns negative when updated figures are released in September.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="3I49o" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3I49o/1/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>Home prices are expected to continue to climb notwithstanding economic weakness. Sydney prices are expected to increase a further 5% in the year ahead after climbing 7.4% in the year to May. Melbourne prices are expected to rise a further 2.8% after climbing 1.8% in the year to May.</p> <p>Percy Allan said Sydney had fewer homes available than Melbourne, and Victoria’s decisions to extend land tax and boost rights for tenants had upset landlords, many of whom were offloading their holdings.</p> <h2>Home prices to climb further</h2> <p>Julie Toth, chief economist at property information firm PEXA, said rapid population growth was colliding with an ongoing decline in household size since COVID. At the same time, fewer new homes were being commissioned and long delays and high construction costs were also keeping supply tight.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="JzLaY" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/JzLaY/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The panel expects non-mining business investment to continue to climb in the year ahead, by 5.2%, down from 6.9%.</p> <p>It expects the Australian share market to climb by a further 5.6%</p> <p><strong>Read the answers on <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3350/2024-25_The_Conversation_AU_Forecasting_Survey.pdf">PDF</a>, download as <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3351/2024-25_The_Conversation_AU_forecasting_survey.xlsx?1719478737">XLS</a></strong></p> <hr /> <h2>The Conversation’s Economic Panel</h2> <p><em>Click on economist to see full profile.</em></p> <p><iframe id="tc-infographic-1066" class="tc-infographic" style="border: none;" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/1066/93fb29ba32e178ec2dcda111f014a50cf7ea1f49/site/index.html" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/233244/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Shutterstock </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/cheaper-mortgages-tamed-inflation-and-even-higher-home-prices-how-29-forecasters-see-australias-economic-recovery-in-2024-25-233244">original article</a>.</em></p> </div>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Restaurant sparks outrage for "ridiculous" fee

<p>As inflation rates continue to rise it is not surprising that restaurants are charging extra fees, but one disgruntled customer was particularly shocked to see this "ridiculous" fee on their bill. </p> <p>The customer, who dined at restaurant and cocktail bar in Georgia, USA shamed the restaurant for charging their customers a $20 fee for “live band entertainment”.</p> <p>They shared their complaints on Reddit with a copy of their receipt and an unexpected fee at the bottom which read: “Two Live Band Entertainment Fee — $20”.</p> <p>Most people in the comments were equally annoyed and called the fee "ridiculous". </p> <p>“This is one of those leave money on the table, hand the waiter a tip and leave, sorry but if I didn’t order it, I’m not paying for it,” one wrote. </p> <p>“Great way to not have repeat customers,” said another.</p> <p>“This will backfire for them, just be honest and upfront," a third added. </p> <p>Other commenters were less sympathetic and did not understand why the customer was complaining when it looked like they could afford it. </p> <p>“When you’re paying seven dollars for a bottle of water, you really don’t get to complain about ‘unexpected costs.’ You knew what you signed up for," one commenter wrote. </p> <p>“Imagine a live band getting paid, huh,” another added. </p> <p>“They’re buying $7 bottles of water, they can probably afford it,” added a third.</p> <p><em>Image: Getty/ Reddit</em></p> <p> </p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Mortgage and inflation pain to ease, but only slowly: how 31 top economists see 2024

<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709">Peter Martin</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p>A panel of 31 leading economists assembled by The Conversation sees no cut in interest rates before the middle of this year, and only a slight cut by December, enough to trim just $55 per month off the cost of servicing a $600,000 variable-rate mortgage.</p> <p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/conversation-economic-survey-81354">panel</a> draws on the expertise of leading forecasters at 28 Australian universities, think tanks and financial institutions – among them economic modellers, former Treasury, International Monetary Fund and Reserve Bank officials, and a former member of the Reserve Bank board.</p> <p>Its forecasts paint a picture of weak economic growth, stagnant consumer spending, and a continuing per-capita recession.</p> <p>The average forecast is for the Reserve Bank to delay cutting its cash rate, keeping it near its present 4.35% until at least the middle of the year, and then cutting it to <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3028/The_Conversation_AU_February_2024_Economic_Survey.pdf">4.2%</a> by December 2024, 3.6% by December 2025 and 3.4% by December 2026.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="xV821" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xV821/4/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The gentle descent would deliver only three interest rate cuts by the end of next year, cutting $274 from the monthly cost of servicing a $600,000 mortgage and leaving the cost around $1,100 higher than it was before rates began climbing.</p> <p>Six of the experts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank to increase rates further in the first half of the year, while 20 expect no change and three expect a cut.</p> <p>Former head of the NSW treasury Percy Allan said while the Reserve Bank would push up rates in the first half of the year to make sure inflation comes down, it would be forced to relent in the second half of the year as unemployment grows and the economy heads towards recession.</p> <p>Warwick McKibbin, a former member of the Reserve Bank board, said the board would push up rates once more in the first half of the year as insurance against inflation before leaving them on hold.</p> <p>Former Reserve Bank of Australia chief economist Luci Ellis, who is now chief economist at Westpac, expects the first cut no sooner than September, believing the board will wait to see clear evidence of further falls in inflation and economic weakening before it moves.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="ZQgno" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZQgno/7/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Inflation to keep falling, but more gradually</h2> <p>Today’s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/">Reserve Bank board meeting</a> will consider an inflation rate that has come down <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-7-new-graphs-that-show-inflation-falling-back-to-earth-220670">faster than it expected</a>, diving from 7.8% to 4.1% in the space of a year.</p> <p>The newer more experimental monthly measure of inflation was just <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-7-new-graphs-that-show-inflation-falling-back-to-earth-220670">3.4%</a> in the year to December, only points away from the Reserve Bank’s target of 2–3%.</p> <p>But the panel expects the descent to slow from here on, with the standard measure taking the rest of the year to fall from 4.1% to 3.5% and not getting below 3% until <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3027/The_Conversation_AU_2024_economic_survey.pdf">late 2025</a>.</p> <p>Economists Chris Richardson and Saul Eslake say while inflation will keep heading down, the decline might be slowed by supply chain pressures from the conflict in the Middle East and the boost to incomes from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/albanese-tax-plan-will-give-average-earner-1500-tax-cut-more-than-double-morrisons-stage-3-221875">tax cuts</a> due in July.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="buC9f" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/buC9f/6/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Slower wage growth, higher unemployment</h2> <p>While the panel expects wages to grow faster than the consumer price index, it expects wages growth to slip from around <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release">4%</a> in 2023 to 3.8% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2025 as higher unemployment blunts workers’ bargaining power.</p> <p>But the panel doesn’t expect much of an increase in unemployment. It expects the unemployment rate to climb from its present <a href="https://www.datawrapper.de/_/w9h9f/">3.9%</a> (which is almost a long-term low) to 4.3% throughout 2024, and then to stay at about that level through 2025.</p> <p>All but two of the panel expect the unemployment rate to remain below the range of 5–6% that was typical in the decade before COVID.</p> <p>Economic modeller Janine Dixon said the “new normal” between 4% and 5% was likely to become permanent as workers embraced flexible arrangements that allow them to stay in jobs in a way they couldn’t before.</p> <p>Cassandra Winzar, chief economist at the Committee for the Economic Development of Australia, said the government’s commitment to full employment was one of the things likely to keep unemployment low, along with Australia’s demographic transition as older workers leave the workforce.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="pAioo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/pAioo/2/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <h2>Slower economic growth, per-capita recession</h2> <p>The panel expects very low economic growth of just 1.7% in 2024, climbing to 2.3% in 2025. Both are well below the 2.75% the treasury believes the economy is <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/speech/the-economic-and-fiscal-context-and-the-role-of-longitudinal-data-in-policy-advice">capable of</a>.</p> <p>All but one of the forecasts are for economic growth below the present population growth rate of 2.4%, suggesting that the panel expects population growth to exceed economic growth for the second year running, extending Australia’s so-called <a href="https://theconversation.com/were-in-a-per-capita-recession-as-chalmers-says-gdp-steady-in-the-face-of-pressure-212642">per capita recession</a>.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="TO8bP" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/TO8bP/4/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>The lacklustre forecasts raise the possibility of what is commonly defined as a “technical recession”, which is two consecutive quarters of negative economic somewhere within a year of mediocre growth.</p> <p>Taken together, the forecasters assign a 20% probability to such a recession in the next two years, which is lower than in <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-more-rba-rate-hikes-tumbling-inflation-and-a-high-chance-of-recession-how-our-forecasting-panel-sees-2023-24-208477">previous surveys</a>.</p> <p>But some of the individual estimates are high. Percy Allen and Stephen Anthony assign a 75% and 70% chance to such a recession, and Warren Hogan a 50% chance.</p> <p>Hogan said when the economic growth figures for the present quarter get released, they are likely to show Australia is in such a recession at the moment.</p> <p>The economy barely grew at all in the September quarter, expanding just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/national-accounts/australian-national-accounts-national-income-expenditure-and-product/latest-release">0.2%</a> and was likely to have shrunk in the December quarter and to shrink further in this quarter.</p> <p>The panel expects the US economy to grow by 2.1% in the year ahead in line with the <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/01/30/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024">International Monetary Fund</a> forecast, and China’s economy to grow 5.4%, which is lower than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast.</p> <h2>Weaker spending, weak investment</h2> <p>The panel expects weak real household spending growth of just 1.2% in 2014, supported by an ultra-low household saving ratio of close to zero, down from a recent peak of 19% in September 2021.</p> <p>Mala Raghavan of The University of Tasmania said previous gains in income, rising asset prices and accumulated savings were being overwhelmed by high inflation and rising interest rates.</p> <p>Luci Ellis expected the squeeze to continue until tax and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, accompanied by declining inflation.</p> <p>The panel expects non-mining investment to grow by only 5.1% in the year ahead, down from 15%, and mining investment to grow by 10.2%, down from 22%.</p> <p>Johnathan McMenamin from Barrenjoey said private and public investment had been responsible for the lion’s share of economic growth over the past year and was set to plateau and fade as a driver of growth.</p> <h2>Home prices to climb, but more slowly</h2> <p>The panel expects home price growth of 4.6% in Sydney during 2024 (down from 11.4% in 2024) and 3.1% in Melbourne, down from 3.9% in 2024.</p> <p>ANZ economist Adam Boyton said decade-low building approvals and very strong population growth should keep demand for housing high, outweighing a drag on prices from high interest rates. While high interest rates have been restraining demand, they are likely to ease later in the year.</p> <hr /> <p><iframe id="syk8x" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" style="border: none;" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/syk8x/6/" width="100%" height="400px" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <hr /> <p>In other forecasts, the panel expects the Australian dollar to stay below US$0.70, closing the year at US$0.69, it expects the ASX 200 share market index to climb just 3% in 2024 after climbing 7.8% in 2023, and it expects a small budget surplus of A$3.8 billion in 2023-24, followed by a deficit of A$13 billion in 2024-25.</p> <p>The budget surplus should be supported by a forecast iron ore price of US$114 per tonne in December 2024, down from the present US$130, but well up on the <a href="https://budget.gov.au/content/myefo/index.htm">US$105</a> assumed in the government’s December budget update.</p> <p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/peter-martin-682709"><em>Peter Martin</em></a><em>, Visiting Fellow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/crawford-school-of-public-policy-australian-national-university-3292">Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University</a></em></p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images </em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mortgage-and-inflation-pain-to-ease-but-only-slowly-how-31-top-economists-see-2024-218927">original article</a>.</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Shoppers lash out at Aldi for “ridiculous” price hikes

<p>A group of Aldi shoppers have lashed out at the supermarket chain after its series of "ridiculous" price hikes. </p> <p>Aldi, which consistently ranks as Australia's cheapest major supermarket, received some criticism this week after the store's popular skinless salmon fillets was hit with a $4 price increase seemingly overnight. </p> <p>“So explain to me, Aldi Australia, how do you justify a 28.5 per cent overnight increase on fresh salmon?” one outraged customer wrote on the Aldi Australia Facebook page.</p> <p>“This is outrageous. Last week, it was $13.99 for four pieces, this week $17.99. Guess where it stayed? On your shelf, NOT in my trolley.”</p> <p>The post triggered a wave of fury, with many threatening to abandon the German retailer and shop at competitor supermarkets. </p> <p>“Everything is so expensive at Aldi now might as well shop at Coles and Woolies,” one shopper wrote. </p> <p>“Well why did a can of baked beans price rise by nearly 50% and the same with small tins of tuna?? Ripping us off — not happy with the excessive price rises!! I think it my be time to shop elsewhere,” fumed a second.</p> <p>“Not impressed by Aldis price increases, a big frozen box of lasagne was $8.99 now $11.99, cheese was $8.99 now $11.99, whisky $34.99 now $36.99, cooking bacon $5.99 now $6.99. I can justify a small increase, but $3 … time to look around,” commented a third. </p> <p>The supermarket chain has responded to the criticism, acknowledging the price hikes, while insisting that they are committed to providing Aussies with great value products. </p> <p>“Aldi’s entire business model is oriented around saving customers money to ensure that we continue to lead as Australia’s lowest-price supermarket," an Aldi spokesperson said.</p> <p>"We always aim to cut unnecessary costs and pass these savings directly onto customers.</p> <p>“We know that the price of essential goods has never been more important to Australians, so we remain absolutely committed to delivering the best value for our customers while also supporting our supplier partners by maintaining fair pricing at all times," they concluded. </p> <p>Last month, Aldi ranked first as Australia’s favourite supermarket. </p> <p>It is the only brand to rank five stars for overall satisfaction, value for money, freshness of produce, quality of private label products and availability of deals/specials, according to the Canstar Blue <span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">survey for its </span><span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Open Sans', 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">annual Supermarket Satisfaction Ratings. </span></p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Coles and Woolies branded "price gougers" by disgruntled shopper

<p>It's no secret that while millions of Aussies are struggling to put food on the table during the ongoing cost of living crisis, supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths are raking in record-breaking profits. </p> <p>While the unreasonable inflation of grocery prices is endlessly frustrating, it seems as though there's nothing everyday shoppers can do to avoid the price increases. </p> <p>But that didn't stop one frustrated Aussie from making a statement against the supermarket chains. </p> <p>The man from Sydney shared a video of him targeting Coles and Woolies shops in the Eastern Suburbs, as he chose to rephrase their taglines.</p> <p>Heading to a Woolies Metro in Bondi Junction, he printed on the logo, "The price gouge people", playing on their slogan of "The fresh food people".</p> <p>He then went to Coles in Rose Bay, reprinting their logo of the pointed down hand with the phrase, "Down, down, morality down", referencing the "down, down, prices are down" jingle.</p> <p>The posted a video of his antics to Instagram, captioning his antics, "So over this bull***t duopoly that Australia just puts up with for some reason. Using inflation as a smoke screen to rake in billions by price gouging people during a cost of living crisis."</p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 540px; min-width: 326px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);" data-instgrm-permalink="https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwbFvB4hX0-/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" data-instgrm-version="14"> <div style="padding: 16px;"> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; align-items: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 40px; margin-right: 14px; width: 40px;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 100px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 60px;"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="padding: 19% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: block; height: 50px; margin: 0 auto 12px; width: 50px;"> </div> <div style="padding-top: 8px;"> <div style="color: #3897f0; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 550; line-height: 18px;">View this post on Instagram</div> </div> <div style="padding: 12.5% 0;"> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: row; margin-bottom: 14px; align-items: center;"> <div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; height: 12.5px; transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px); width: 12.5px; flex-grow: 0; margin-right: 14px; margin-left: 2px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; height: 12.5px; width: 12.5px; transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 8px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 50%; flex-grow: 0; height: 20px; width: 20px;"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 2px solid transparent; border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4; border-bottom: 2px solid transparent; transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg);"> </div> </div> <div style="margin-left: auto;"> <div style="width: 0px; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-right: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(16px);"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; flex-grow: 0; height: 12px; width: 16px; transform: translateY(-4px);"> </div> <div style="width: 0; height: 0; border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4; border-left: 8px solid transparent; transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px);"> </div> </div> </div> <div style="display: flex; flex-direction: column; flex-grow: 1; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 24px;"> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; margin-bottom: 6px; width: 224px;"> </div> <div style="background-color: #f4f4f4; border-radius: 4px; flex-grow: 0; height: 14px; width: 144px;"> </div> </div> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><a style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none;" href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwbFvB4hX0-/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A post shared by NOTNOT (@notnotcamscott)</a></p> </div> </blockquote> <p>"There’s a reason why Coles and Woolworths make double the profit margins of other supermarkets in comparable markets overseas. 2/3 domination of our market leaves battlers with no time to seek out alternatives, no choice but to give into their greed."</p> <p>The video was quickly met with a flood of support, with one person writing, "When you inevitably get a fine for this, please put up a GoFundMe on Reddit and I will donate to cover part of the cost. Thanks for doing something more people should be doing!"</p> <p>Another person wrote, "I love how you can hold some tools and wear high-vis and nobody blinks and eye in this country", while several more commenters dubbed the man a "legend". </p> <p>Speaking to <a href="https://au.news.yahoo.com/disgruntled-shopper-sabotages-woolworths-and-coles-signs-the-price-gouge-people-072137676.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>Yahoo News</em></a>, Woolworths confirmed that the new signage had been removed from their Bondi store, and said they are committed to helping families during the cost of living crisis.</p> <p>"We're acutely aware of the pressure that's being placed on Australian families through cost of living increases, whether they are our customers or our team members," a spokesperson said.</p> <p>"And we're doing more everyday to help customers spend less with us."</p> <p>A spokesperson for Coles also told <em>Yahoo</em>, "We know cost-of-living pressures are front-of-mind for our customers and are always looking for ways to help their dollars stretch further. This week, Coles announced it will bring down the price of more than 500 products for at least three months."</p> <p>"We value feedback from our customers, and encourage them to let us know about their shopping experience through our normal feedback channel – Tell Coles – or through our dedicated customer care team."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Instagram </em></p>

Legal

Placeholder Content Image

“Budget queen”: Mother shares insane shopping hack

<p>A Sydney mother has caught the attention of the internet after sharing her grocery haul for her family of nine.</p> <p>The mother spent under $250 on her shop from Woolworths and Aldi.</p> <p>She claims it will provide a total of 12 dinners and “a bunch” of snacks for school over the next fortnight.</p> <p>She mentioned that a year ago the same grocery shop would have cost significantly less as the cost of living crisis continues to soar.</p> <p>“So we are a family of nine, two adults, two teenage girls (19 and 13) four boys (11, nine, six and four) and a nearly four month old who will be starting on puree food next week,” she said.</p> <p>“Only a year ago this would have been around $175. This will make 12 dinners and a bunch of school snacks.</p> <p>“Normally I also buy around three to four packs of winter vegetables from Aldi, but they have sold out. I also normally go to Hunter and Gather to buy all our fresh fruit and vegetables. We buy milk when needed.</p> <p>“We buy bulk items like toilet rolls and laundry powder at Costco twice a year, which a 60pk of toilet paper would last around five months and the laundry powder around seven months.”</p> <p>The mother is currently on maternity leave, which in turn has her feeling the pinch even more, and she aims to keep her family’s “bellies fuller for longer”.</p> <p>“We try to keep to foods that are healthy and will keep our bellies fuller for longer. If I can hide veggies in it, it's a bonus.”</p> <p>She plans to use the ingredients to make meals that will last a fortnight such as devilled sausages, supergreen spaghetti, Irish stew and flaxseed chicken wraps.</p> <p>The kids’ school lunches include ham, cheese and a wrap with hummus. Lunchbox snacks vary from oat brownies to apple sauce muffins and lemon and almond meal cake, with fruit also.</p> <p>“The school snacks are a deal breaker. oats are so cheap and you can make so much with them and they are a real hunger tamer. I’ve always been a huge fan of baking because of my mum, so I make all my kids snacks.”</p> <p>The online community praised her price-cutting hacks, with one user labelling her the “budget queen”.</p> <p>A second commented, “Wow, wow, wow, I spend well over that a week for a family of four”.</p> <p>And a third said, “I’m taking note! We have two adults, two children under five and a dog and I spend $220 a week. I’m so impressed!”</p> <p>“That’s a well planned shop” another said. “Good on you for making it work at that price for that many people. Sadly in my house we are 2x dairy allergy and 2x lactose intolerant so I can only dream of that budget.”</p> <p><em>Image credit: Facebook</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

"We’re all f***ed if that happens": 60 Minutes' stunning f-bombshell

<p><em>60 Minutes</em> reporter Tom Steinfort spoke for Australians all across the nation when he swore at Treasurer Jim Chalmers in an interview on interest rates.</p> <p>The exchange transpired as homeowners brace for a 10th consecutive rate rise, with the move expected to produce the highest interest rates Australians have seen in the past decade. </p> <p>“Do you see similarities between now and what happened in the early ‘90s?” Steinfort asked the treasurer, referencing a difficult period of recession for Australia.</p> <p>“There’s absolutely no chance that interest rates will get to the level that they were at in the early 1990s. I wanna make that clear,” Chalmers responded. </p> <p>And while the treasurer had wasted no time in giving his answer, it wasn’t enough to stop Steinfort from scoffing, “yeah, well, we’re all f***ed if that happens.”</p> <p>In January 1990, interest rates peaked - or hit rock bottom - at a record high of 17.5 per cent. </p> <p>And now, the RBA is set to deliver more bad news - passing on another 0.25 per cent interest rate rise - with homeowners already feeling their wallet strings tightening when faced with the disparity between house prices and annual wages. </p> <p>Australia’s inflation rate of 7.8 per cent marks the highest level since the early 1990s and is over twice that of the RBA’s 2-3 per cent inflation target - one they adopted in 1993. - the RBA took on its inflation target in 1993.</p> <p>Experts fear that further interest rate hikes will see Australia face its first recession since 1991, a concern that Steinfort clearly shares. </p> <p>Elsewhere in the interview, Steinfort wanted to know if Chalmers believed Australians had seen the worst of the inflation crisis, asking, “do you think we’ve hit the inflation peak?” </p> <p>“That’s our expectation, yeah,” Chalmers said. “We think that’s most likely, uh, that inflation peaked at Christmas time and has started to moderate. But we won’t know until we get that next set of data.”</p> <p>“You think we might be through the worst of it?” Steinfort pressed. </p> <p>“Well, I think inflation is starting to come off,” Chalmers responded, before adding that despite his optimism, Australians shouldn’t expect for things to get easier overnight, “but even as it moderates we can’t be complacent about it, because it’s still going to be a challenge in ‘23, just like it was in ‘22.” </p> <p>“You paint a picture that we’ve turned a bit of a corner and that there are better times ahead, but the people we’re speaking to - I mean, even when I look at my home mortgage bill - we’re not feeling it,” a sceptical Steinfort pointed out. </p> <p>To which a smiling Chalmers answered, “yeah, I understand, and I think that certainly the prime minister understands, and that the government understands, that people are under real pressure now. </p> <p>“We’re doing what we can to deal with it within the constraints of a responsible budget.” </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Federal treasurer Jim Chalmers believes we’ve already seen the worst of Australia’s inflation problem. However he says 2023 will still be a challenging time for many families.</p> <p>Watch <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/60Mins?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#60Mins</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/9Now?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@9Now</a> <a href="https://t.co/4G5tZZO3fU">pic.twitter.com/4G5tZZO3fU</a></p> <p>— 60 Minutes Australia (@60Mins) <a href="https://twitter.com/60Mins/status/1632322412959215617?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2023</a></p></blockquote> <p><em>Images: 60 Minutes</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Fighting inflation doesn’t directly cause unemployment – but that’s still the most likely outcome

<p>You may have seen the news: in its attempts to tackle inflation, the Reserve Bank is going to increase unemployment. The idea can even seem to come right from the mouths of experts, including the bank’s governor, Adrian Orr. <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/adrian-orr-beating-inflation-will-mean-higher-unemployment/WO3WLQQUGWEC5NVK3AQTR2BN5A/">Speaking recently</a> to an industry conference, he said:</p> <blockquote> <p>Returning to low inflation will, in the near term, constrain employment growth and lead to a rise in unemployment.</p> </blockquote> <p>Similar sentiments have been expressed by <a href="https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/opinion/inflation-taming-the-costs-are-becoming-more-visible">independent economists</a> and <a href="https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/31-10-2022/the-big-banks-just-cant-stop-winning">commentators</a>.</p> <p>But is it as simple as it might appear? What is the relationship between inflation and unemployment, and is it inevitable that reducing one will lead to an increase in the other?</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Unemployment rate holds steady at 3.3%, wages rise strongly - Stats NZ <a href="https://t.co/IQOPBaNYTn">https://t.co/IQOPBaNYTn</a></p> <p>— RNZ News (@rnz_news) <a href="https://twitter.com/rnz_news/status/1587568087808999424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 1, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p><strong>Historic highs and lows</strong></p> <p>Like other developed countries, New Zealand has been going through a period of historically high inflation. The latest figures, for the September quarter of 2022, show an annual <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/annual-inflation-at-7-2-percent/">rise of 7.2%</a>, only slightly lower than the 7.3% recorded for the June quarter.</p> <p>Inflation is the highest it has been since 1990. The story is similar across the OECD, where inflation averages <a href="https://www.oecd.org/economy/consumer-prices-oecd-updated-4-october-2022.htm">10.3%</a>, including <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2022">8.8%</a> in the UK and <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">8.2%</a> in the US.</p> <p>At the same time, New Zealand is experiencing a period of very low unemployment, with a <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/unemployment-rate-at-3-3-percent">rate of just 3.3%</a> for September 2022, following 3.2% in the June quarter. These are near-record lows, and the rate has not been below 4% since mid-2008.</p> <p>So, right now New Zealand is in a period of historically low unemployment and historically high inflation. At first glance, that might suggest that in order to return to low inflation, we may inevitably experience higher unemployment.</p> <p><strong>The Phillips Curve</strong></p> <p>The idea that inflation and unemployment have a negative relationship (when one increases, the other decreases, and vice versa) dates back to work by New Zealand’s most celebrated economist, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Phillips_(economist)">A.W. (Bill) Phillips</a>.</p> <p>While working at the London School of Economics in the 1950s, Phillips wrote a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-0335.1958.tb00003.x">famous paper</a> that used UK data from 1861 to 1957 and showed a negative relationship between unemployment and wage increases.</p> <p>Subsequent work by economics Nobel Prize winners <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Samuelson.html">Paul Samuelson</a> and <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1987/solow/facts/">Robert Solow</a> extended Phillips’ work to show a negative relationship between price inflation and unemployment. We now refer to this relationship as the “Phillips Curve”.</p> <p>However, even though this relationship between inflation and unemployment has been demonstrated with various data sources, and for various time periods for different countries, it is not a causal relationship.</p> <p>Lower inflation doesn’t by itself cause higher unemployment, even though they are related. To see why, it’s worth thinking about the mechanism that leads to the observed relationship.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LISTEN?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LISTEN</a> 🔊 The Finance Minister says addressing inflation without increasing unemployment is a difficult balancing act.</p> <p>📎 <a href="https://t.co/CfaopcqjGv">https://t.co/CfaopcqjGv</a> <a href="https://t.co/1gMNat2G99">pic.twitter.com/1gMNat2G99</a></p> <p>— Morning Report (@NZMorningReport) <a href="https://twitter.com/NZMorningReport/status/1587893034351411200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 2, 2022</a></p></blockquote> <p><strong>Collateral damage</strong></p> <p>If the Reserve Bank raises the official cash rate, commercial banks follow by raising their interest rates. That makes borrowing more expensive. Higher interest rates mean banks will lend less money. With less money chasing goods and services in the economy, inflation will start to fall.</p> <p>Of course, this is what the Reserve Bank wants when it raises the cash rate. Its <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/library-research-papers/research-papers/monetary-policy-and-the-policy-targets-agreement/">Policy Targets Agreement</a> with the government states that inflation must be kept between 1% and 3%. So when inflation is predicted to be higher, the bank acts to lower it.</p> <p>At the same time, higher interest rates increase mortgage payments, leaving households and consumers with less discretionary income, and so consumer spending falls. Along with reduced business spending, this reduces the amount of economic activity. Businesses therefore need fewer workers, and so employment falls.</p> <p>So, while the Reserve Bank raises interest rates to combat inflation, those higher interest rates also slow down the economy and increase unemployment. Higher unemployment is essentially collateral damage arising from reducing inflation.</p> <p><strong>Great expectations</strong></p> <p>That’s not the end of the story, though. After its 1960s heyday, the Phillips Curve was criticised by economists on theoretical grounds, and for its inability to explain the “stagflation” (high unemployment and high inflation) experienced in the 1970s.</p> <p>For example, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Friedman.html">Milton Friedman</a> argued there is actually no trade-off between inflation and unemployment, because workers and businesses take inflation into account when negotiating employment contracts.</p> <p>Workers’ and employers’ expectations about future inflation is key. Friedman argued that, because inflation is expected, workers will have already built it into their wage demands, and businesses won’t change the amount of workers they employ.</p> <p>Friedman’s argument would suggest that, aside from some short-term deviations, the economy will typically snap back to a “natural” rate of unemployment, with an inflation rate that only reflects workers’ and businesses’ expectations.</p> <p><strong>Symptom or cause?</strong></p> <p>Can we rely on this mechanism to avoid higher unemployment as the Reserve Bank increases interest rates to combat inflation?</p> <p>It seems unlikely. Workers would first have to expect the Reserve Bank’s actions will lower inflation, and respond by asking for smaller wage increases. Right now, however, consumer inflation expectations <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/households/household-inflation-expectations">remain high</a> and wage growth is at <a href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/latest-job-numbers-out-unemployment-flatlining-near-record-lows/O4NDE3Y4W5GMHGDRDDS733LX7A/">record levels</a>.</p> <p>So, we can probably expect unemployment to move upwards as the Reserve Bank’s inflation battle continues. Not because lower inflation <em>causes</em> higher unemployment, but because worker and consumer expectations take time to reflect the likelihood of lower future inflation due to the Reserve Bank’s actions.</p> <p>And since workers negotiate only infrequently with employers, there is an inevitable lag between inflation expectations changing and this being reflected in wages. Alas, for ordinary households, there is no quick and easy way out of this situation.</p> <p><em>Writen by Michael P. Cameron. Republished with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/fighting-inflation-doesnt-directly-cause-unemployment-but-thats-still-the-most-likely-outcome-193617" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Conversation</a>.</em></p> <p><em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. -->Image: Getty Images<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193617/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /></em><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

How investors can build a sustainable income in an inflationary market

<p>Over recent months, rising inflation has hit our back pockets more and more each day, while our hard-earned dollar is getting us less than it used to.</p> <p>The last 12 months have seen Aussies grapple with terms like inflation, interest rates and volatility, along with plenty of numbers and percentages, as we try to make sense of what’s happening in the financial world.</p> <p>Tim Montague-Jones, Head of Australian Equities Research at ASR Wealth Advisers, tells <em>OverSixty</em> that during periods of inflation, like the one we’re experiencing currently, we can actually become poorer despite our bank balances staying the same.</p> <p>“In simplistic terms, if you had $100,000 in savings, and you have 10 percent inflation, then that $10,000 is just evaporating out of your bank account each year,” he explains.</p> <p>“But in reality, what it means is you go into the shop and everything just costs more money, your dollar buys less. So you become poorer.”</p> <p>If we do nothing or invest in generally considered safe options such as bonds, government securities or term deposits, our money can also lose value.</p> <p>“If cash value goes down 10 percent a year, you lose 10 percent. Now, if you go and put it in a bond, you’ll be lucky to get a four or five percent return,” Montague-Jones says.</p> <p>“So what people talk about is real rates, which means the difference between inflation and what you can return from an investment, a cash account for example is unable to offer a higher return than inflation, meaning your money is going down in value every year.</p> <p>“If people do nothing in such conditions, they will lose wealth.”</p> <p>“You’re seeing higher prices and lower economic growth, and it just erodes people’s savings. “And it hits the hardest for people who aren’t employed, who don’t have a salary because they’re not going to get wage inflation.”</p> <p>As unstable as everything might seem, Montague-Jones says it is possible to still get a return on your investments and ensure your hard-earned cash isn’t losing all of its value.</p> <p>“In reality, there’s no safe place to put your money to offset inflation, but there are certain strategies you can take to try and mitigate that inflation,” he says.</p> <p>Income portfolios, like the one offered by <a href="https://www.australianstockreport.com.au/top-3-income-stocks-2022-o" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASR Wealth Advisers</a>, are created by analysts who scan the market for high quality stocks that are expected to achieve a steady return on investment and therefore may provide you with a sustainable income in addition to your other income sources.”</p> <p>“We have put together what we call our income portfolio. I have a team of analysts, and what we do is we are looking for businesses which pay what we call a ‘defensive’ cash flow,” he explains.</p> <p>“So we’re not trying to buy a company which is going to double in price, we’re not looking for that capital growth. What we’re looking for is a company with that annual cash flow.”</p> <p>In times like these, Montague-Jones says it comes down to investing in defensive stocks.</p> <p>This refers to buying stock in businesses that return consistent profits each year, rather than those that are high risk and high reward. Examples of defensive sectors of the market include infrastructure, utilities, supermarkets and healthcare.</p> <p>“What we like is electricity distribution, gas pipelines, toll roads, port facilities, airports. We like what we call defensive infrastructure, utilities, things that are expected to continue doing well and are resilient to an economic cycle,” Montague-Jones explains.</p> <p>“Because we will continue to have economic cycles, what we want to do is just have that cash flow, so we’re not going to really look at the share price from month to month, what we’re going to be looking at is the consistency of that cash flow through time.</p> <p>“And that’s what we’ve helped our investors to get exposure to through our income portfolio.”</p> <p>As a result of its consistent returns, the <a href="https://www.australianstockreport.com.au/top-3-income-stocks-2022-o">income portfolio</a> from ASR Wealth Advisers has a low turnover or a ‘set and forget’ nature, which Montague-Jones says allows some investors to essentially live off the income generated by the portfolio.</p> <p>“What we like about our income stocks is of the nature of its cash flow, even through an economic cycle, we still wake up, we turn the lights on, you turn the gas on, businesses still function, life goes on and so does income from the portfolio,” he says.</p> <p>In terms of strategies investors can use during inflation, Montague-Jones says that there aren’t many places where your money can go without incurring some kind of loss. Even areas that have done well in the past, such as property, offshore assets and precious metals aren’t generally offering the same kinds of returns as defensive stocks.</p> <p>“And I do think you have just got to invest in infrastructure assets, such as a utility business churning out cash flow, is where you need to hide at the moment until the smoke clears and we can work out where to go,” he says.</p> <p>“Longer term, we still like commodities, we like green metals. We particularly like copper, there’s a big structural shift happening into electric vehicles and a move away from combustion vehicles,” Montague-Jones explains.</p> <p>“And there’s a big boom for lithium, copper, nickel and aluminium, so we like to get more speculative investors to invest in these commodities.”</p> <p>With over 20 years of experience in investment management, Montague-Jones has personally adopted some successful strategies over the years, including having a “get rich slow” mindset.</p> <p>“I like to set and forget, to own a business and then just let it do what it does, which is generate income.</p> <p>“And that’s what it’s all about. It’s not get rich quick, it’s get rich slow.</p> <p>“It’s about that compound return, year in year out. If you can make nine or ten percent every year, you compound that over 10 or 20 years, you’ll have better chances to become extremely wealthy, rather than trying to make 30 percent this year then lose 30 percent next year.</p> <p>“So it’s about get rich slow and about income; it’s a key ingredient to becoming wealthy.”</p> <p>To find out more and receive a free report detailing how you can see attractive growth on your investment, head <a href="https://www.australianstockreport.com.au/top-3-income-stocks-2022-o" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.</p> <p><em>This is a sponsored article produced in partnership with </em><a href="https://aaigl.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>AAIGL</em></a><em>.</em></p> <p><em> </em><em>Atlantic Pacific Securities Pty Limited ABN 72 135 187 085 trading as ASR Wealth Advisers CAR 339207 of Trilogy Group Australia Pty Ltd ABN 80 078 111 654 AFSL 218770 and Amalgamated Australian Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ABN 61 123 680 106 AFSL 31461 distributes a wide range of its investment research reports through Australian Stock Report Pty Ltd ABN 94 106 863 978 AFSL 301682. ASR Wealth Advisers and Australian Stock Report Pty Ltd are part of Amalgamated Australian Investment Group Limited ABN 81 140 208 288.</em></p> <p><em>General Advice Warning: Any views and recommendations expressed in this article are limited to general advice only without taking into account your individual objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider whether this information is appropriate for you in light of your personal circumstances and seek professional investment advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investment in securities involves risk. Share prices rise and fall. The payment of dividends and the return of capital are not guaranteed.</em></p>

Retirement Income

Placeholder Content Image

This single spending habit could threaten your savings

<p dir="ltr">As inflation rates hit record highs - at 7.75 percent for Australia and 7.3 percent for New Zealand - many are finding their savings are taking a hit under the soaring cost of living.</p> <p dir="ltr">But it isn’t just rising fuel and food prices you need to worry about, according to ANZ Plus team member Danielle Curry.</p> <p dir="ltr">In fact, there’s one commonly forgotten expense that’s making staying on top of our finances even trickier: phone apps.</p> <p dir="ltr">Apps like Uber Eats, Afterpay services, and those for your favourite stores, along with “must-have” shopping trends are making it so that mobile apps are driving our desire to spend money easily and beyond our means.</p> <p dir="ltr">According to new research from ANZ Plus, over recent years Aussies have consistently “overspent” the most on eating out and takeaway, with 53 percent noting that their top expenses were food-related.</p> <p dir="ltr">“There’s this real immediacy of spending that is becoming very normal for Australians,” Ms Curry told <em><a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/budgeting/out-of-control-the-spending-habit-threatening-your-savings/news-story/f38d98db818c8f01191a4069106eb6af" target="_blank" rel="noopener">news.com.au</a></em>.</p> <p dir="ltr">“And especially during the pandemic, we saw a lot of restaurants convert to home delivery services so people were still ‘eating out’ but just a bit differently.”</p> <p dir="ltr">A noticeable surge in online shopping and subscribing to streaming services also coincided with thousands starting to work from home during pandemic-induced lockdowns, accounting for Aussies’ overspending by 35 percent and 19 percent respectively.</p> <p dir="ltr">“And with the advent of things like buy now, pay later services it has really allowed that real immediacy of spending,” Ms Curry added.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Twenty years ago you couldn’t order something from Amazon and have it arrive the next day … so if you’re not tracking your expenses, are you really sure exactly how much you’re spending on things like Amazon?”</p> <p dir="ltr">Ms Curry said one of the most concerning findings from the research was that a third of Ausies struggle to manage their finances, with 1.5 million of those surveyed admitting they “don’t feel in control of their money at all”.</p> <p dir="ltr">Though data from Westpac suggests that the average Australian has around $22,000 in savings, big savers that skew the data means that a more realistic figure is closer to $3500.</p> <p dir="ltr">In response to skyrocketing electricity bills and other living expenses, many have chosen to cut down on “unnecessary expenses” and try to save any way they can.</p> <p dir="ltr">Ms Curry said that even though most are trying to make ends meet, poor budgeting skills could leave many blindsided.</p> <p dir="ltr">“We know that a lot of people don’t feel in control and it’s because they don’t have the knowledge about their own finances,” she said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“But the first thing to understand is that it’s going to be different for every single Australian … and it’s important that everyone understands their own situation.</p> <p dir="ltr">“(It’s different) for some who might be financially struggling to make ends meet has to make choices between food and the electricity bill versus someone who is financially comfortable and is quite able to make a luxury purchase.”</p> <p dir="ltr">But, there are some ways we can take back control of our finances, such as tagging and categorising your spending through your banking app.</p> <p dir="ltr">This can help you identify “unnecessary” or passive purchases that can be stopped, such as forgotten subscriptions.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Everyone is at a different stage in their lives and make custom everyday expenses,” Ms Perez said. </p> <p dir="ltr">“(But) once we can really understand what we’re doing with that money we can see if there are trade-offs … to find that extra five dollars to add towards our savings.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Digital budgeting apps and tracking tools, including those offered in banking apps can also help you set up savings goals, a budget, and a savings buffer based on your financial situation.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Using these kinds of nifty features that we’ve got around expense categorisation and setting up savings goals, really help push your finances to the next level,” Ms Curry said.</p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-587d039a-7fff-d6bb-bc0c-b218a9d62332"></span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Why veggie prices remain high

<p dir="ltr">An Australian grower and head of the nation’s peak vegetable industry body has spoken out on the rising costs of food across the country. </p> <p dir="ltr">AUSVEG chair and vegetable grower Bill Bulmer told NCA NewsWire that consumers needed to get used to paying “that little bit more” in order to avoid the importation of frozen products “across the board”.</p> <p dir="ltr">“We don‘t want to get to the stage where our shelves are bare of fresh produce at certain times of the year and we’re relying on imported products,” he said.</p> <p dir="ltr">The Victorian farmer said skyrocketing production costs, world pressures and mother nature were all playing “a massive part” in the soaring prices for vegetables in the past four months.</p> <p dir="ltr">“People are going to have to realise there has to be an increase in the price of fruit and veg across the board.” he said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“We don‘t want people paying six or $8 for a lettuce but people might have to get used to paying three or $3.50 for lettuce.”</p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Bulmer said cost pressures on growers had been accumulating for “quite a few years”, with a lot of businesses just “hanging in there”. </p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Bulmer said consumers needed to “step back a little bit and go, ‘OK, why are we paying six to $10 a lettuce?’”</p> <p dir="ltr">He said educating the public on where their money was going would ensure transparency across the industry.</p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Image: Getty</em></p> <p><span id="docs-internal-guid-5c4ece42-7fff-b0a2-2e9f-3b29f9c579a2"></span></p> <p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; background-color: #ffffff; margin-top: 0pt; margin-bottom: 18pt;"> </p>

Food & Wine

Placeholder Content Image

Inflation is 2022’s boogeyman. How can we address rising living costs, while helping bring it down?

<p>An entire generation has never experienced life with high inflation. But that is set to change. Countries like Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and others are <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/06/inflation-stats-usa-and-world/">reporting rising inflation</a>. In New Zealand, inflation has climbed to its <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129293267/annual-inflation-hits-73">highest rate in 32 years</a>. Our collective inexperience with the scourge of inflation, and how to solve it, could be a real problem.</p> <p>For those experiencing high inflation for the first time, it is helpful to understand just what economists and politicians are talking about.</p> <p>Inflation is a sustained increase in overall prices. Not everything goes up by the same amount but when people are having to pay more each week, month or year for the same basket of goods and services then that’s inflation.</p> <p>Inflation is harmful in many ways. It works like rust – slowly eating away at the value of your money. Inflation affects all of us. It doesn’t matter what the face value of your money is – what matters is the quantity of goods and services you can buy with it.</p> <p><strong>The real value of money</strong></p> <p>One easy way to understand inflation is to look at what you can buy for the money you have.</p> <p>Suppose at the start of the year your $100 note bought you 20 cups of coffee. However, inflation pushes coffee from $5 to $6 a cup. By the end of the year, your same $100 only buys you 16 cups of coffee. The face value of your money is the same but its real value (in terms of the number of coffees you can buy) has gone down. Your money is worth less now than a year ago.</p> <p>This rise in costs hurts wage earners who have limited opportunity to renegotiate their wages.</p> <p>Inflation also hurts those on fixed incomes such as beneficiaries and superannuitants who only receive periodic adjustments.</p> <p>Rising inflation hurts savers who find the real value of their savings going down if returns on savings don’t keep up with inflation – which they currently aren’t.</p> <p>Inflation can benefit borrowers who have the same debt at the end of the year but the value of that debt is lower in real terms. Providing there is at least some inflation adjustment to their income, borrowers have to sacrifice less to repay their debt.</p> <p>While this sounds good, it’s not. It encourages poor borrowing decisions and discourages savings.</p> <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474465/original/file-20220718-495-2r9amx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Young woman looking at a grocery receipt." /><figcaption><span class="caption">Inflation has risen to levels not seen for three decades. Consumers will feel the squeeze as their purchasing power drops.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/photo/checking-receipt-royalty-free-image/691853536?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p><strong>The all-encompassing impact of inflation</strong></p> <p>In a progressive tax system, inflation hurts salary and wage earners who get pushed into higher tax brackets as they receive inflation adjustments to their pay.</p> <p>Inflation can also cause issues at a national level.</p> <p>If one country’s inflation rate is higher than their trading partners then its currency falls in value. In the early 1970s, the NZ dollar was worth almost US$1.50. Our higher inflation rates of the 70s and 80s saw it fall to around US$0.50 by the mid 80s.</p> <p>This drop in value limits what we can buy from overseas – things like life-saving drugs will become more expensive for us if we don’t get inflation down and others do.</p> <p><strong>The causes of inflation can come from good intentions</strong></p> <p>Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.</p> <p>If central banks push more money into circulation, there is a real risk of inflation. A big increase in demand for goods from, for example, an increase in government spending can also trigger inflation. So can supply chain disruptions that reduce the goods available (meaning the same amount of money chasing fewer goods).</p> <p>Unfortunately, all these triggers are currently in play as countries respond to a series of global crises.</p> <p>The invasion of Ukraine and ongoing COVID-19 supply chain disruptions have reduced the goods available. Governments globally have boosted spending to support their economies. But this latter factor has been put on steroids by central banks being willing to purchase government debt.</p> <figure class="align-center "><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474468/original/file-20220718-53534-kfbvw2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" alt="Man with mask pushing supermarket trolly." /><figcaption><span class="caption">Russia’s war in Ukraine and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused a cost-of-living crisis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com.au/detail/photo/man-wearing-mask-while-shopping-in-supermarket-royalty-free-image/1235145649?adppopup=true">Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure> <p><strong>Unintended consequences</strong></p> <p>The RBNZ bought billions of government bonds to keep interest rates low as part of its <a href="https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/library-research-papers/research-papers/library-research-brief-large-scale-asset-purchase-lsap-programme">“large scale asset purchases” programme</a>.</p> <p>In New Zealand, the average money growth between 1995 and 2019 was about 8% per year. This accommodates a growing population, a growing economy and a little bit of inflation (a little bit is OK). In the last two years money supply has grown by around 30% per year.</p> <p>Of course it’s easy to look back with the benefit of hindsight. Those who made the decisions at the time don’t have that luxury.</p> <p>The RBNZ is now they are having to wind back their asset purchases and raise interest rates to rein in inflation.</p> <p>Some argue the RBNZ has been <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/129311096/more-pain-expected-as-inflation-runs-hotter-than-a-government-can-handle">distracted and has dropped the ball on their key job</a> and we are now facing the risk the inflation genie is out of the bottle.</p> <p>Whether that criticism is justified or not, the RBNZ will now have to act decisively to reduce inflation. But getting inflation down is never painless.</p> <p>Households with mortgages will find their weekly budgets squeezed as interest rates rise. Firms will face falling demand from consumers with less to spend. Job growth will dry up – though New Zealand is in the fortunate position of starting with very low unemployment.</p> <p>Regardless, the RBNZ must do the job they got back in 1989 with the passing of the <a href="https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/29ada25bfa8b4e50922262618fb03e00.ashx?sc_lang=en">Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act</a>. New Zealand’s central bank is the only one that can control monetary conditions; it’s the only one that can get inflation under control.</p> <p>The same could be said for many of the countries facing growing inflation.</p> <p>If central banks don’t take decisive action, we could get a sharp reminder of just how bad inflation can be.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187154/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" /><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https://theconversation.com/republishing-guidelines --></p> <p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-hickson-1288490">Stephen Hickson</a>, Economics Lecturer and Director Business Taught Masters Programme, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-canterbury-1004">University of Canterbury</a></em></p> <p><em>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/inflation-is-2022s-boogeyman-how-can-we-address-rising-living-costs-while-helping-bring-it-down-187154">original article</a>.</em></p> <p><em>Image: Getty Images</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Udderly ridiculous: Price of milk next in line for huge hike

<p>With the cost of living soaring, we can now add home-brand milk to the long list of products being hit by significant price hikes.</p> <p>In yet another hit to household budgets, Coles and Woolies will start charging more for the grocery staple, in a move that's being chalked up to rising prices at the farm gate – which in turn are being passed on to consumers.</p> <p>Both supermarkets will charge $1.60 for a litre of homebranded milk, $3.10 for two litres and $4.50 for a family-sized three litre.</p> <p>That's a steep increase of 25c on the one litre, 50c for two litres and a whopping 60c jump on three-litre bottles.</p> <p>Coles will also increase the cost of its long-life UHT milk from $1.35 to $1.60.</p> <p>“The farmgate prices paid to dairy farmers have risen significantly this season, and as a result we’re paying our own brand suppliers more for milk,” a spokesperson for Woolworths said.</p> <p>Coles chief commercial officer Leah Weckert said the company was aware of increased cost of living pressures and remained committed to delivering value to its customers.</p> <p>"Raising prices is never something we do lightly, however, the increased supply chain costs we are seeing, including higher payments to dairy farmers and processors, have necessitated these increases on Coles brand milk products,” she said.</p> <p>Coles started paying its dairy farmers more for their product from the beginning of this month and has also agreed to higher costs asked by processors who source the milk themselves to supply the company.</p> <p><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Price hike hits Bunnings institution for first time in 15 years

<p>The cost of living crisis is continuing to hit Australians where it hurts - this time targeting a sacred weekend institution. </p> <p>The beloved Bunnings sausage sizzle has been hit with a cost increase for the first time in 15 years, after what the store chain said was extensive feedback from community groups.</p> <p>The humble sausage sizzles have been a staple of a weekend trip to Bunnings for more than 25 years, with not-for-profits, community groups, and charities all using them as an opportunity to fundraise.</p> <p>However, as the cost of groceries continues to rise, these groups say there is a significant downturn in their profits after the barbecue gets turned off. </p> <p>After forking out the extravagant cost of sausages, bread, onions and sauces, these community groups are left struggling to come out on top. </p> <p>And so, from Saturday July 23rd, people lining up for a sausage will have to hand over $3.50 instead of the previous price of $2.50. </p> <p>Onions will still be a cost-free option, and drinks will stay steady at $1.50.</p> <p>All the money raised goes straight to the group running the sizzle, so it's at least for a good cause.</p> <p>"It's been an incredibly difficult couple of years with the lack of fundraising opportunities and the pressure on community group services and support continues to be a growing need in our wider community," Bunnings Group managing director Mike Schneider said.</p> <p>"The sausage sizzle will always be a community led initiative and we have listened and responded in a way we hope allows groups to maximise fundraising efforts, whilst still giving customers a simple way to support their local community."</p> <p><em>Image credits: Getty Images</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

RBA increases interest rates again

<p dir="ltr">The Reserve Bank of Australia has increased interest rates by 0.5 per cent for the third month in a row.</p> <p dir="ltr">Interest rates are now 1.35 per cent with treasurer Jim Chalmers saying that inflation will only “get worse before it gets better”. </p> <p dir="ltr">"That's the brutal reality, unfortunately," he said.</p> <p dir="ltr">"A lot of people that I talk to around Australia are facing that same diabolical set of circumstances, where prices for everything are going up, people's wages aren't keeping up, it's harder and harder for small businesses to operate.</p> <p dir="ltr">"The government is doing what it can but really the only solution to this in the medium term is to try and build a budget and an economy which is as resilient as the Australian people themselves, and that's what we're working on."</p> <p dir="ltr">Mr Chalmers said it's expected that the interest rate will continue to go up and this will put a lot of pressure on people with mortgages. </p> <p dir="ltr">“Mortgage repayments are now eating up a bigger part of already stretched budgets,” he said.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Average homeowners owing $330,000 will now have to find another $90 a month at the same time as they try to keep up with the costs of petrol, electricity, groceries and other essentials.”</p> <p dir="ltr">RBA Governor Philip Lowe says Australians should expect further hikes to help with inflation.</p> <p dir="ltr">“Global inflation is high. It is being boosted by COVID-related disruptions to supply chains, the war in Ukraine and strong demand which is putting pressure on productive capacity,” he said. </p> <p dir="ltr">“Monetary policy globally is responding to this higher inflation, although it will be some time yet before inflation returns to target in most countries.”</p> <p dir="ltr"><em>Images: Shutterstock</em></p>

Money & Banking

Placeholder Content Image

Woolies hits back after shocking egg price posted online

<p>Woolworths has hit back after a TikTok video appeared to show eggs selling for $14.50 in a store in Perth.</p> <p>Stephanie Young has taken to social media to share her shock, after finding a carton of free range eggs priced at $14.50 at a local Woolworths in Perth.</p> <p>“$14 for eggs.. last week there was none now the inflation hits,” she wrote over the video.</p> <p>But Woolworths has confirmed the ticket was incorrect, and the eggs are actually priced at $6.65.</p> <blockquote class="tiktok-embed" style="max-width: 605px; min-width: 325px;" cite="https://www.tiktok.com/@stephyoung77/video/7094120721454042369" data-video-id="7094120721454042369"> <section><a title="@stephyoung77" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@stephyoung77" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@stephyoung77</a> Time to get chickens?? <a title="inflation" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#inflation</a> <a title="foodshortage" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/foodshortage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#foodshortage</a> <a title="2022" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/2022" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#2022</a> <a title="fy" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/fy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#fy</a> <a title="♬ This is a joke right - Jackary" href="https://www.tiktok.com/music/This-is-a-joke-right-6979203543391668997" target="_blank" rel="noopener">♬ This is a joke right - Jackary</a></section> </blockquote> <p>“The eggs at this store appear to have been labelled with the wrong price, and we encourage this customer to let us know where they shopped so we can ensure it’s been corrected,” a Woolworths spokesperson said.</p> <p>“More broadly, the market-wide supply of locally produced eggs in WA has recently been impacted by reduced production on a number of farms.</p> <p>“While we continue to deliver eggs to our stores regularly, customers may notice reduced availability at the moment and we thank them for their patience and understanding.</p> <p>“We’re in close contact with our suppliers and are working to increase the availability of eggs in our WA stores as soon as possible.”</p> <p>Egg Farmers of Australia chief executive Melinda Hashimoto in March said consumers should expect to pay more for eggs as farmers deal with rising costs.</p> <p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 16px; vertical-align: baseline; outline: none !important;"><em>Image: Getty</em></p>

Money & Banking

Our Partners